Castanza
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Everything posted by Castanza
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Added to NVO and GOOGL
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AI/GPU/Data Center Bubble Collapsing?
Castanza replied to rogermunibond's topic in General Discussion
People were saying and writing articles about Cloud in 2010+ calling for “peak usage and buildout”. The market then was about ~24b. Here we sit today pushing ~800b. I think it’s likely AI will be the same over the next decade+. Computing is still in its infancy; and I don’t think companies will stop finding ways to become more efficient. This is just a new avenue of optimization. “Everyone is a tech company” has a different meaning today that it did in 99/00. Example: https://www.forbes.com/sites/reuvencohen/2012/05/24/interest-in-cloud-computing-has-peaked/ -
Exactly, that's why social media is silly. All it does is reinforce your personal views. This forum is the closest I get to social media these days...
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The problem with that is YOU are the moderator and everyone is subject to bias. So in a way, you will overtime self-reinforce your own biases. I don't think 99% of people can utilize social media in the way you propose. The algos are smarter than the users. I think it's better to start with reputable sources that people from different spectrums consider generally unbiased. Then make effort to read through every article etc. Overtime I think this shifts your worldview to a more centrist standpoint, which (imo) is about the best you can be as you can "flex" one way or the other on issues, but approach them from some middle ground starting point. Always a work in progress though.... I've been subscribed to The Economist for over a year now and have been reading every major article in each issue throughout the week. It's been a good exercise imo. I hate reading on screens so went with the print version.
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Stop using social media, read more history books and stick with print news. The Economist, Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times are all very solid and balanced. Ignore opinion pieces. Also like podcasts - War on the Rocks for Ukraine/Russia - Financial times (The Economics Show) - Financial Times (News Briefing) - The Economist - Paul’s Security Weekly (Cyber security if you’re into that)
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NVO, MRK, TGT, SSD, RTO, CP, FSLR, MGM, FRFHF
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@moatrep I suspect you might find better odds betting on March Madness matchups.
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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/christopher-bloomstran-on-warren-buffett-%24brk-berkshire/id1454112457?i=1000700070114
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So What Exactly Is The "Short Homebuilders" Thesis At This Point
Castanza replied to Gregmal's topic in General Discussion
Rates dropping would definitely help but it doesn't seem like it's in the cards right now. -
So What Exactly Is The "Short Homebuilders" Thesis At This Point
Castanza replied to Gregmal's topic in General Discussion
Exactly This tariffs situation is potentially ... Gasoline -> -
Alcohol and Coffee are fine and which one is better?
Castanza replied to Haryana's topic in General Discussion
2022 Data from CDC Heart disease: 702,880 Cancer: 608,371 Accidents (unintentional injuries): 227,039 COVID-19: 186,552 Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 165,393 Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 147,382 Alzheimer’s disease: 120,122 Diabetes: 101,209 Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 57,937 Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis: 54,803 - Life expectancy is primarily driven by genetics. - Quality of life is mostly driven by choices Since 1960 - Cancer rates have declined in the US since 1960 from ~140 out of 100k to ~100 out of 100k Since 1960 - Obesity rates have tripled from 13% of adults to nearly 42% In other words, pick your poison....one seems to be replacing the other. Both can lead to poor quality of life. Both are fine in moderation. -
So What Exactly Is The "Short Homebuilders" Thesis At This Point
Castanza replied to Gregmal's topic in General Discussion
This whole segment is getting crushed....Anyone been thinking about this? TOL, DFH, DHI etc. all trading way down. With tariffs driving prices up in an already expensive market, this seems like it could go on for a long time. If we (US) are undersupplied with starter homes, but prices continue to rise what's the solution? On the flip side, the builders are in general better capitalized and positioned than they were prior to GFC. High end market seems somewhat insulated but who knows? -
Canadian SOF did A LOT alongside the US during the GWOT
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GOOGL, META, BX
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BX
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FRFHF
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What makes it different this time? We've always had new tech advancements. Are these guys really different due to the nature of their business (asset light etc.)? And where does it end? Tech is just getting started imo.
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Small adds and some new starters FRFHF SSD RTO ASML META GOOGL NVO trimmed some RTX a hair reduce weighting and free up some cash
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So What Exactly Is The "Short Homebuilders" Thesis At This Point
Castanza replied to Gregmal's topic in General Discussion
Believe it or not that’s actually code in some places. Something to do with if it’s knocked out it’s likely to be knocked downward so the first point of contact is the ground. Electricians here asked me which way I wanted it as it’s more suggested than enforced. Also sometimes installed that way to show it’s tied to a wall switch for a lamp or something. I have a few like that in my place that I actually switched before knowing this. -
Probably here to say, 71% stop taking them after 1 year and 80% stop by year 2. Seems like a combination off issues (some which could be worked out with future advances in the segment). But there are not many who take them long term as it stands now.
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Wow pretty cool they’re doing that. Not too many companies pushing things like that.
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So he said publicly
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What made you trim DHL? Just decide to trade? Results were not bad and they are probably better positioned to deal with US tariffs than the other big 2 (FDX and UPS). Could actually be good for them. Although they might reconsider trying to re-enter the US market.
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