Castanza

Nobody wants to talk about immigration as well. I'm sorry, but when you import hundreds of thousands of people from differing cultures (many 3rd world countries) every year you're going to have problems. Notice how Canada just came to an agreement to "send back" illegal immigrants to the US. Most of the countries that have low gun violence and like 98% the same in regards to demographics across race, religion, cultural background. The US is also the only 1st world nation to border a country like Mexico and subsequently the rest of SA. Ban guns in the US and they will flood into this country through the black market. At the end of the day politicians will do what they do best. Fuck everything up.

Here is your 2020 mass shooters club. Majority.....gang related. To ban guns because the criminals use them is to tell the law-abiding that their rights and liberties depend not on their own conduct, but on the conduct of the guilty and lawless. FBI estimates that 500k-1.5m people use firearms to defend themselves every year in the US.

Yeah, I don't see a world where China and Russia are not aligned for the foreseeable future. They both offer each other things the other needs. They both have similar political/economical backgrounds. History aside, Russia has no chance of invading China or let alone taking any city. China will bankroll Russia after this war is over. They will build the alliance and build out their industry and support each others economies. China will probably want to control Mongolia and extend its influence as well. The more NATO grows, the more these other regimes will draw close together. Humanity is reaching a precipice of what's tolerable in terms of government moving forward. In the next 50-100 years it seems like a hard stance will be taken in one direction or the other. Since WWII alliances on both sides have just been growing stronger and stronger. China Brazil, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabi, etc. doing deals in currency other than USD is a big deal.

Isn’t China trying to work with Russia on belt and road policy? Something tells me after this Ukraine war is over, the long arm of China will step in and help with Russias recovery. They seem to have a knack for stepping into distressed situations as of late.

Well my perspective is more of "this is the capital I have available to invest what do I want to do with it?" I'm pretty stringent with positions and even though investors may do well in BABA or Tencent, I can't justify what I have being used towards that. At least not in the current market conditions where there is an abundance of opportunities with far less risk to worry about. That opinion could change though as the market changes. I'm not opposed to investing in China as a permanent stance. It's simply a lower tier on the priority list if that makes sense.

Thanks Saluki, that makes a lot of sense and I tend to agree. China's growth is highly impressive but the lack of property rights and ability to actually truly own anything is a glaring issue. The lack of justice in the judicial system is a tough one. Could be the same in India tbh I don't know. Overall, this has been my main issue with investing in China and why I don't have any positions in Chinese equities. I think the growth story of China continues, but how to profit from that while minimizing risk? Not sure. Tough to balance western bias and the realities of the Chinese political/economical system. Both have a lot of propaganda. India on the other hand seems a lot more open to western influence. They seem less corrupt from the top down and seem to strike some semblance of middle ground between autocratic and democratic. They seem more open to the outside world where China like to dominate from the inside out. With the insights from Prem and Fairfax I agree that there are some good vehicles for exposure to the Indian economy.

Question for those in the know. How is the shareholder treatment different between China and India? Is India much more favorable?

I do think it's good advice to read everything but taking it with a grain of salt. There is often some truth to be found. Back in college I took a bio-ethics course and the very first day of class the prof had a picture of some guy in NYC wearing a tinfoil had with a sign that said "The government is making spider goats." Everyone thought it was some meme joke etc. But then he went to the next slide with an article clarifying the reality of the situation. Turns out the government isn't making "spider goats" but instead goats that can produce milk that contains spider silk which could eventually be used in materials science for varying things. His point was that all perspectives should be heard, but it's up to you to do proper due diligence to understand the origins of the claims/data. Getting back to the source is key for any field of study. https://agfundernews.com/what-happened-to-those-gm-spider-goats-with-the-silky-milk

Country level success above all. Very much an "organism" mindset vs individual. Strong family values and work ethic remind me of the US post WWII. This is very much a predictor of country success. Country success =/= shareholder success to Parsad's point Two simple docs that capture the amazing feats and accomplishments of China along with the ugly side of China. The second one shows the Urban Village issues and the emphasis on growth at all costs. @Luca thanks for the above interviews.

Yup, everyone thinks it’s a heavily religious publication but I’ve found their info to be very matter of fact. I think there are ties to Christianity, but for every day reporting in international news it’s been pretty good.

Listened to a podcast about the IPL on Business Breakdowns a few weeks ago. All I can say is I wish there were a way to invest. Virat Kohli (cricket player) has more Instagram followers than Taylor Swift. I've been doing more and more digging into India and this is definitely an economic powerhouse in the making. The age demographics look very favorable and look similar (better) than the US in the 1950's.

@Spekulatius I've found a mix of The Economist, Al Jazeera, The Christian Science Monitor, FT, and Reuters to be reasonable for primarily western news sources (outside of Al Jazeera). I completely ignore Washington Post, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal, and NPR as to me they prove to be heavily biased. Can anyone recommend their favorite international news sources? I was looking at some from the Netherlands and Norway but most of them are not in English.

Anyone pumping any viewpoint should be mostly ignored. I ignore the Zero Hedge nonsense the same way I ignore the perma-bull individuals who think the stock market always goes up because it always has. The world is changing, empires are changing and how money works is changing. We are no longer in the analog era and I think some of the "buy and hold because America will always exist." individuals ignore that aspect of it. I give pushback on things that affect me directly or have the possibility to affect me. But even then, there isn't really shit you can do about anything. Best to keep your ducks in a row and keep on trucking. In general though, these things change slowly (although with the digital world I think things move faster today). At the end of the day we are a blip on the radar of history. We get 70 years if we're lucky so I've slowly come to the conclusion that I'd rather spend my time with family and friends than worrying about the pending Armageddon. So for now, the buy and hold probably works.....until it doesn't. Might as well just embrace the mess and find ways to live the removes the most amount of stress and anxiety as possible. To me (many on here will disagree) this is living a debt free life and learning as many skills as possible. Saving for retirement is important, but not the ONLY thing I think about. Frankly I have zero desire to be rich, own fancy cars, or a massive house. Most rich people I know are miserable and all they talk about is money. They complain about politics and life incessantly, can't identify with the common man and don't know how to have fun. I'd be willing to bet that within 20 years there will be free education and free universal health care here in the States. Society (like most individuals) is Hell bent on subsidizing the most comfortable lifestyle possible while disregarding debt. The US is conforming to the norm seen globally. It is what it is....You just have to hope it doesn't blowup when you're still blipping on the radar. America is no longer a bastion of free thought and individual responsibility or pride. This can be confirmed with a quick trip to your local grocery store. If it isn't some completely useless Adderall pill junkie with blue hair, 20 tattoos piercings and a Che Guevara t-Shift on, it's some 350Lb Croc wearing sack of shit probably wearing some "Come and Take it" themed shirt when he couldn't run to the end of the aisle. LOL rant over.....time for a coffee with some whiskey. Life is absurd!

No clue lol I don't bet on sports or anything as I think it's a complete waste of time. Unless you're Biff from Back to The Future and have a copy of the sports betting almanac I see no reason to engage. I try to avoid habits of those who easily part with their money. Gambling and lotto tickets are right near the top of that list.

I was told this by a friend who lives in Kentucky and semi-follows the sport: "In investing we have Buffett. In Horse racing we have Baffert" Bet on Bob Baffert's horse and call it a day if you're hell bent on gambling. Still a lot of corruption in the horse industry. I mean, look at this guy...

idk, the returns on banks aren't that great looking back compared to general market (if risk is important) are worse. And with the current situation I'd expect more regulation which will most likely negatively impact returns. The chart below is 10k invested in 2008 with 1k cashflow a month and dividends reinvested. Not inflation adjusted.

Yup, banks always seem like a black box. I mean just look how nobody except a few individuals were talking about this HTM stuff until it blew up. Others had to know but chose to ignore it. Better to trade than hold imo.

Yes sorry should be SNCAF

BRK 20% (4rd priority) GOOGL 10% JOE 10% SNCAF 10% (1st priority) MSFT 8% RTX 8% NTDOY 5% AIV 5% OXY 5% (2nd priority) VTS 5% (2nd priority) SU 4% (2nd priority) DPSGY 3% (5th Priority) PCYO 3% (has been as high as 10%. I trade in and out of this as it swings) GXE 2% WFG 2% (3nd priority) UPS 1% SBER 2% TPL < 1% Cash 10% Margin 0% Recently traded some banks. Never been a fan of holding long-term. They were equivalent to a 20% position between the three of them. Margined up. USB traded out of shares hold options TFC traded out of shares hold options EWBC traded out of shares

Thought this was a pretty good podcast with a few different perspectives from a guy with an interesting background. I'd say approach it knowing that the opinions are anecdotes influenced heavily by real world experiences. But frankly, I'd rather hear opinions from those who have done; over those who sit at desks and form opinions only based on what they read in books. ____________________________ Outside of this interview all I will say about this whole situation is that the US is really f%&$ing up by allowing China to potentially broker a peace deal with Russia between Ukraine and other deals with the Saudis. The US Sphere of influence and credibility on a global scale are diminishing.

Retailers always seem to hang on longer than expected. This sector is always so irrational or opaque I avoid it entirely. I think in the end you get killed with duration. I looked at shorting BBBY with long duration puts like 5 years ago thinking how tf is this company in business? Amazon, Walmart, Target, Costco, and Dollar General have to be eating their lunch daily. Yet somehow they persisted. Retail is the zombie industry. They look dead half the time, probably are technically dead, but just keep on walking. Anecdotal but I stopped in Ollies this past Saturday looking for some cheap plant pots. 1 car in the parking lot, 2 employees working, aisles filled with unpacked boxes, store is basically dilapidated. Walked out with 2 pots for $3....How does that keep the lights on? No clue.

Interesting stuff LC hope they work out well for you. Sounds like a solid deal from being in the right place at the right time. Planning on getting a liquor license for the pizza shop?

Someone needs to invite this guy to the next SF City meeting.

I think gluing yourself to any specific portfolio allocation is dumb unless you’re to the point where you are just preserving wealth. The only two positions I haven’t traded out of are RTX and MSFT. Largely because they are in taxable accounts and my cost basis is so low. Take what the market gives you. If the market is going to puke and give me a once in a 10-15 year opportunity why would I waste that opportunity with a 1-2% position? If that’s all you’re going to do then either index or go 50/50 SPY & BRKb, close your eyes and wake up when your 65 with an average retirement.

Is "waiting to see how credit markets tighten" a copout answer or is it just me? It's really the perfect thing to say while being able to save face with all that has gone on this past month.