Castanza

Take what the market gives you...

BRO, AJG

I have been listening to Sam Harris's Podcast recently and worked through some of his AI discussions. The conversation on ep #434 was interesting. The book written by the guests Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares "If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies" is pretty interesting read thus far. Also working through the podcast series suggested by Sam Harris "The Last Invention"...Not going to lie, it seems a bit out there for a suggestion from Sam since he is typically a very rational and clear thinker. Frankly I'm not sure what to make of it....but only into ep 2 so perhaps it comes full circle... The more I listen to and read things like the above, the more convinced I am that this whole capex stuff does not matter. This tech is going to be built Hell or high water.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/chit-chat-stocks/id1437766060?i=1000732945433 New podcast that focuses on Fairfax India

Rates peaked at the end of 2018. Rates started getting cut in summer of 2019 due to pandemic concerns. The pandemic threw a wrench in everything. I'm not saying you're wrong or right, but you seem to be boxing management in to a specific window of time in order to make a decision. If the pandemic never happened isn't it plausible they could have been right? Just playing devils advocate....

Yup and Fairfax is also unique because it doesn’t trade in line with peers. I guess it’s up to the individual in whether they think that gap closes or the permanent market discount continues. Personally like JOE I don’t give a shit because I’m looking 20 years out. 1600 vs 1700 ain’t going to make a hill of beans different (well maybe if you’re @gfp buying fat stacks) in the long run if you’re mindset is it will eventually trade in line with peers.

By all means live up your 20s and have fun but my point is there is still a need for balance. Again it’s rational vs reasonable. The difference lies in the subjective landscape of each individuals personal situation.

I mean you build ZERO equity when you rent. A house should cost like 3% a year in maintenance over the long term. It’s easy enough to set aside and emergency fund park it in a a High Yield account, Bonds or even equities and come out well ahead. @SharperDingaan I agree on the most people spend way too much on their first house. I get it in some markets, but for most a house is a utility…lower mortgage frees up more cash to invest while also forcing some savings on an appreciating asset. Plus you can always leverage the equity or rent it out and move to a nice house once you build some wealth. Im not old, but my advice to people in their 20s is buy cheap vehicles and a small affordable house that is maybe 2-3x your salary or combined salary.

I think that's entirely dependent on the market you live in. Most normal cost of living place this is probably not true.

I get the efficiency and opportunity cost; but as with anything there is a balance to be found. Personal choice for sure, but I chose this because I realized life doesn't start when you're retired...The hyper efficiency mindset crown that seems to make up a significant portion of my generation is nothing more than a new manifestation of FOMO. That's a two way street imo.

I was also wondering this

I just ignore it. You always need somewhere to live. Personally I paid my house off in my early 30’s and took the hit on opportunity cost. Not rational, but reasonable. For one it maximizes my FCF to A.) Maintain my families lifestyle B.) Reduce the psychological stress of investing / clarity of thought. C.) Less work stress

FRFHF

Growth returned to historical averages..brings the whole sector down that’s already near 52 week lows

I added to BRO, AJG, AON, RYAN, and MMC

Trimmed $APH to bring it back down to preferred position sizing.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/business-breakdowns/id1559120677?i=1000702834168 Haven’t seen Goosehead mentioned on here in a bit, but when it was mentioned it seemed nobody could quite understand it. I make zero claims there but this was an interesting episode.

Control

Not that this changes the inflated cost of housing we are seeing comparatively; but one thing that always gets lost in these broad comparisons is the amount and quality of house you are getting now. At least in the US a normal house was like 1600sqft vs ~2300sqft today. Also worth noting the energy efficiency, and modern amenities of todays homes vs then (well maybe not 1980s homes). And not everything is better...but you get the point. Another thing is the average age of first time buyer has gone way up since 1950. I think it was early 20's then and now early o mid 30's. But what has changes? Without spending a lot of time on numbers I think i's fair to say from a high level the delay increase in age for "first time buyer" could at leas in part be attributed to some of the following: Globalization or freedom of movement, undergrad and post grad education, average marriage age, and general cultural changes/values. I think it's fair to say that in 1950 people viewed their 20's very differently than people today. Edit: Also housing affordability should not be viewed in a vacuum. I think you also need to see where and how people are spending money elsewhere as this also affect what you can afford. Purely anecdotal (seems we're doing that) but I know a lot of people in their early 30's with 1300/m new vehicle payments, mountains of student debt, and also pretty liberal lifestyle budgets (food/entertainment/fashion). My quick blunt take (as someone who avoided these things) is that a change in some of the above personal finances would change in no small amount the number of people who could now "afford" a new home. Just some thoughts....

The Motley Fool actually had a good discussion on this topic today. Only like 20 minutes but they raise a lot of concerns and honestly I agree. “A lot of AI seems like a solution looking for a problem.” How is it monetized? How do the partners work? Which partners get priority and why? Is it sharing my data and asks with every other partner? How does this “widen the funnel” for customer acquisition? Examples given: User says: “I want to get in shape.” Does said user just get spammed with ads from the highest paying partner? User said “I want to fly to Minnesota.” Which partner gets the traffic? Booking? Or Expedia? Who determines that? Overall I think they call out a lot of the utopian promises. At the end of the day I think people will prefer decision making over better curated spam advertising. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/motley-fool-money/id306106212?i=1000730880886

"Show me the man generation and I'll show you the crime failure." In the same vein, every generation thinks theirs is better than the past ones. Just as trivializing... Every generation has different advantages and disadvantages. The winners adapt. People who don't, complain.

Are these Wells reports for clients or are they accessible to anyone? Have been trying to find some to read through to no avail.

I also had 20 BTC in the Spring of 2013 (shoutout to Slush pool and the uni library IT tech who let us setup a mining pool with the desktops) and sold when they were $50...distinctly remembering buying a ton of wings with them for some bros in the dorms... Maybe I should just stop selling shit...

Interesting thanks for sharing

@dealraker words sit heavy with me when I think of AMD and NVDA...Back when I first started investing I had 5k worth of each that would be worth many many multiples of what they are trading at now. I remember dumping both for a double....NVDA $30-60 or something like that and AMD $5-15...Had no idea what I was doing of course (both buying and selling)...