Castanza
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Everything posted by Castanza
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Agreed I think the first logical step would be removing the tie between insurance and employer. HMO1973 took US healthcare in the wrong direction.
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Makes sense from that perspective. I've sure with medical school debt of what 400k on average it's pretty difficult to make it on your own outside of a major metropolitan area. Might as well move to a universal system at this point....From an investment standpoint as someone who is only 30; I do contribute to HSA etc. But honestly long term I don't see how the US won't have some form of universal in the next 10-20 years. Seems inevitable, especially with the voting demographics changing.
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Is it just me or is medicine becoming more and more impersonal in the US? At least here in PA it seems everything is being consolidated under the big branches like UPMC where instead of getting a traditional family doctor for everyday stuff who would follow health history closely; you get in these programs where it's some random rotation of 5-10 MD's or PAs.... No personal health concerns between me and my wife but still annoying and I can imagine it being very frustrating if you have some chronic condition.
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Chirp Wheel, corkball (similar to lacrosse ball but can carry backpacking) and Theragun <--- game changer
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What? https://www.westfraser.com/investors/stock-information
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Do we think the Glazers actually care about being hated though? I mean there is A LOT of hated franchise owners out there that stick around for a long time. Dolan and Jerry Jones come to mind here in the US. I think if they choose to sell its entirely about the money. If they really cared about image and making a better name for themselves they would likely find a way to sell to Ratcliff. Bringing Manu back under the British fold would be a positive image booster with die hard Brit fans. Brit tradition/heritage angle etc. Reminds me somewhat of the LIV golf situation. I don’t think they care about any of that and will simply go with the highest offer if they choose to sell at all.
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I've been a net buyer in the low 70's which it seems to touch regularly. But pending what you think regarding a recession this could be a good or bad price in the short term. So my approach is add in small amounts now in the low 70's but plan on adding heavily if this dips in any significant manner pending a recession etc.
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I disagree there. There are tons of whitenesses for the tic tac. There are a dozen very qualified individuals who said it’s significant. And yes that is exactly part of the mystery. How is an object moving without showing any heat signatures, exhaust or intake etc. You’re describing it in terms of our tech and understanding of physics. I think that’s the point of “UFO” no? I’m not an aerospace engineer or a physicist. But when I see a lot of credible people saying “yeah we don’t know what that was” I pay attention. People who deeply understand the systems that tracked it and people who deeply understand the aerospace capabilities we have. Good example of someone reasonable and qualified to talk on the unusualness of the “thing”. Edit: You might find this interesting. Shows FLIR camera shots of what heat signatures would look like. In the comments there are some links to better examples of systems from the same timeframe that still show heat signatures from engines etc. Every expert I’ve heard discuss it said that there are no heat signatures. The pilots clocked it going INTO the wind. I mean they got a target lock on it. I think 99% of things can be debunked. But this one so far has stood up against the best criticism.
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@Viking has done some really solid work on West Fraser Group here. LVL and engineered products make up a percentage of their product line. Trading around 8x right now. I posted a Morningstar link in the "What Is The Short The Homebuilder Thesis" thread yesterday. Not sure if this is what you're after but it's a very well run company with a solid management team that has been executing very well the past few years. They have acquired a few key pieces the past few years that have given them a significant position in the industry. https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/15893-wfg-west-fraser-timber/page/3/
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So What Exactly Is The "Short Homebuilders" Thesis At This Point
Castanza replied to Gregmal's topic in General Discussion
I think WFG or other suppliers is a better way to play the housing market in general. Good read by Morningstar (link). One thing I've noticed is that the younger generations seem less likely to pay more for older homes. A lot of my peers are looking to build new construction vs paying slightly less for a house built in the 60-70's that is going to need another 50k worth of work. Some of this is the younger generations obsession with "it has to be new" and their general lack of ability to do basic repairs/renovations. You also typically have two spouses working which would cut into any time spend fixing up your own home. Then you have the majoroty of existing homes locked up for at least another decade or two should rates remain where they are. Well people need to live somewhere. Wages are rising and people are justifying a little more spend to build. It was mainly during Covid where you saw people thinking about renovations or DIY projects since they were stuck at home. But that was generally little stuff or contractors were still hired out. All of my contractor friends have been buried up to the gills in work. I bet over the next 2-3 decades we see more old homes being torn down and new ones built in their place. The codes and housing tech has gotten much better and it seems like that margin of difference between a house built in the 70's vs today is much greater than say a house built in the 90s. I think the general home owner is recognizing this and looking for the new shiny more efficient model that they think they have "less" to worry about. -
Yeah, you've got Vets lining up for DMT sessions vs going to the VA. Results from what I understand have been stellar. Tends to be what happens with monopolies though. American Medical Association and the Department of Education are right there as well! Mind boggling we still have people locked up on weed charges while the govt (Fed and State) collect taxes off of weed sales.
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Been looking for a reasonable investment angle here the past few years. Doing wonders for a lot of mental health issues, ptsd etc.
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Not PC but its Comedy
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I hear you on all of this and agree! Until someone provides direct evidence I take peoples word as just bullshit. However.... What about videos like the infamous tic-tac? Or the metal sphere? There are unexplained things caught on camera. I have two friends who work in the defense industry both in aerospace. One works for Lockheed and the other Northrop. They have both work on the development of airframes Obviously they are limited to what they can say and have TS clearance all that and I realize these are just two people with limited scope etc.. But I can that they said they've seen the videos and have absolutely no effing clue what could move like that. I mean look at SpaceX...undoubtedly our most advanced airframe/rocket systems no? Doesn't even come close to what was seen. So even if this isn't "extraterrestrial" then it should be concerning that someone out there (be it govt or private) has some craft that far surpasses our known capabilities and seems to defy known physics. I mean the Pentagon said the tech outstrips ours by 100 - 1000 years and that we don't control the airspace? Why would they say this? The Tic Tac was said to be moving 13k mph....the fastest aircraft we know of goes 4500mph. The fastest missiles in the world are a hair slower than that. Until Joe Rogan has a live alien sitting across from him on his podcast I'll be a skeptic. But you've got to admit, some of this is getting wild. Former director of ATTIP: "Imagine a technology that can do 6-to-700 g-forces, that can fly at 13,000 miles an hour, that can evade radar and that can fly through air and water and possibly space. And oh, by the way, has no obvious signs of propulsion, no wings, no control surfaces and yet still can defy the natural effects of Earth's gravity. That's precisely what we're seeing."
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Stil boggles my mind this was ever debated US and Poland were the obvious two answers. You’ve got CIA, SEALs or GROM (worked with US extensively during GWOT); two of which specialize and have done this exact thing in the past. Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it." Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?" Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that." Source: ABC News https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662
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Yeah but DD has averaged like 3% since 2013 lol I guess with MMM you get a nice divy, but there is no guarantee that stays around. Could go either way, but every time I get invest in stocks with litigation ongoing i get cucked.
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Same, I've always had my eye on this Co. But it seems like this will be a class action punching bag for the next decade or more.
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I go back and forth on this issue but I tend to agree with you more now because the prevalence of mental health issues in the US and Western societies is at ridiculous highs. Prescription drug abuse is already bad enough as it is. Making street drugs legal (besides weed) is a recipe for disaster. Fentanyl is killing 100k people a year in the US and it's getting worse. Make heroin or cocaine legal and you're just fueling the mental health crisis even more. If society was more sane I would say sure try it. A quick trip to your grocery store will tell you all you need to know. The flip side is, "The War on Drugs" has been fruitless and costs the US billions every year; And the prison system is also a complete mess which costs billions as well. Both industries have only grown.
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PGA Effs Over 9-11 Families and Loyal Players
Castanza replied to Parsad's topic in General Discussion
Anyone pushing “green energy” needs to go read the book Cobalt Red by Siddharth Kara At least with O&G you can look around and see solid paying jobs for most of the world (not all). I wonder how cost efficient renewables would be if we removed the literal slave labor at the bottom of the chain? -
PGA Effs Over 9-11 Families and Loyal Players
Castanza replied to Parsad's topic in General Discussion
It’s all about money for sure. The whole situation isn’t much different than what happened in the late 60’s with some players starting the APG until they came to an agreement to get paid more. As someone who loosely follows golf and plays from time to time; the whole LIV thing just seems confusing. The whole team aspect of it comes across kind of “corny”. The Crushers, The Fireballs? The whole thing sounds like something that would air on ESPN the Ocho. Part of the appeal to PGA is the tradition. But I guess a lot of sports (ex. College Football) are making changes and moving away from that so who knows! -
My wife is a NICU nurse and is getting worn out. She’s been at it for 8 years now working overtime shifts most of those years. Not to mention long commutes. As we worked our way back towards family it became clear that she wanted to step back from work and be a Mom. Luckily it didn’t take any persuasion from me. Honestly very fortunate with our situation. I know a lot of people simply can’t not work. But she plans to keep working some and maybe pursue her NP after this first year. So in the end I think it will all work out. We live basically debt free; which might be a handicap in the longterm retirement wise….But near term it’s certainly a plus.
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Yup, I’ve never understood the couples who want to work 80 hours a week hire a full time babysitter all so they can have a 25% better house and luxury cars. I’ll be damned if I work 80 hours a week for 40% more salary so I can have a Porsche in the garage that I drive to work and back 6 days a week. Much rather make a little less, work less have a more manageable house that’s more easily updated and the flexibility to do things if I chose. Clocking out at 4:30, not getting called on weekends for work and working remote 97% of the time is priceless imo. I can run errands during lunch, go to the gym, cut the grass, water the garden, meet my pops or a friend for lunch etc. nice knowing I’ll never miss my kids activities should I keep this gif for some time. Again, different strokes for different folks. And I think it’s area dependent too. Obviously a balance that has to be obtained which is easier said than done for most.
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Send in the social workers!
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Agreed, society places too much emphasis on careers and money making regarding happiness and self worth imo. Nothing against a career though, but there are a lot of benefits about raising your own kids as well. Although plenty of people make it work with two working parents. You could argue the self worth benefit a career gives you. Different strokes for different folks.My wife will be cutting back her hours when our first is born. 1 shift a week with the option to add days at her leisure. Probably scale back up once they are in school and we get things ironed out. Childcare is crazy expensive. @thepupil 60K sounds nuts! Guessing that's just the D.C. market. Around here a "good" daycare is like 25-30k year. Not sure about full time Nanny service. But I sure as hell wouldn't want someone "cheap" watching my kids either so maybe that makes the 60k more reasonable. Have heard plenty of horror stories.