Castanza

Aren't you worries about a debt crisis or something that could cause the dollar to lose reserve status?

And what did oil do during the Great Depression? Oil is only as "productive" as the demand that requires it. The picture you paint doesn't make sense to me. China and the US are the largest consumers of oil....According to you at least the US is headed for ruin and despair. Yet somehow the two largest economies in the world will increase oil demand in a depression like environment? Something tells me you're a big Mad Max fan...

Unobtanium is the only logical answer here.

Seems like a lot of mixed data out there. Supply is outpacing demand this Spring. The demand base is one of the largest ever, but supply is mainly limited to new supply but existing supply is getting better. Back to pre-covid levels. DHI lowered guidance recently but between buybacks and dividends is expected to return about 10% of its market cap to shareholders. Also interesting is they said tariffs should impact their margins on the low end of the spectrum New build 375k avg sale price Margins 22% Cost 295k Estimated tariff impact is 10k. 10k is not an issue whether the buyer or DHI eats those costs. Scale is an advantage for supply procurement and also labor procurement. Plus there has been some tariff exclusions on building materials. Big guys will easily outcompete any of the smaller players in rough waters. DHI and TOL are top of my list right now. Quality and well run builders with good supplier relationships and pretty savvy management teams that have navigated worse environments before. But near term we could definitely see more downside. Numbers will probably look worse the next few months since the spring numbers are really from agreements signed prior to the tariff news.

To me that "research" screams opportunity for me. Why would I care what every Millennial with 1k in a Robinhood account does? Sure investing is more accessible. Retail still doesn't move the needle in markets to any significant degree. People have done dumb shit with money since the beginning of times. Never understand the fixation on things like this. Nothing new under the sun. If anything it provides slightly more volatility which is a boon for those who can value and acquire assets with a long-term horizon. Anyone with serious money is likely not that dumb outside of a few outliers @Blake Hampton

And?

If Anthony Bourdain thought Tokyo was the top food destination then that's good enough for me.

That's the difference between someone with a 20 year perspective and one with a quarter to quarter perspective.

It was tough but yeah I ended up selling it all the way down. Too many other bargains out there and it seemed like a good contender to use for additional cash. The position was oversized for some time and I probably wouldn’t have sold it all the way down; but considering the waves in the defense industry I figured I’ll take the chance. It’s one of the only defense stocks to avoid the dip….if we do hit a recession and defense diversifies to other countries I’m guessing this will eventually get caught in the drag.

Bottomed at -8% but now up 19%. Gotta let that volatility work for you

This forum is the only reason I found out about CSU. I read about it for years on here before I took a position. At first (immaturely) I thought…”who tf wants to own a Canadian based Software Rollup? Then I read about Leonard, followed the thread, read the annual reports and shareholder letters and leaned into some other writings out there by other investors. Still though it always looked expensive. Jumping to conclusions is a poor starting point for value investing. Meanwhile it was up 30% annually each year I passed. Eventually said you know what I like the management and the company and their track record.

Eh people have been saying that about CSU for a long time. There are hundreds of thousands of opportunities out there. Chris Mayer has talked about this quite a bit in some of his writings and I believe Leonard has addressed it too. With AI who knows what the future holds in this space. Just trying to trust the operators here and not my own judgement on the future. Weighting is just based on track record. I know Leonard has final say still with Topicus and the European market seems ripe. Could see more spins off of CSU over time as well so it’s easier to capture a bigger share of those. I picked up a good amount of both when they dipped these last few months.

Damn not sure I could do just 5 so I'll go 10. In terms of just business/management quality without regard for equity price in the short-term but a 30+ year timeline. 1-3 Easy Fairfax 20% Berkshire 20% Constellation 20% 4-5 Tough Alphabet or Meta each 10% 6-10 Tougher Copart, NNI, CCJ , JOE, Topicus each 5% Edit: If you told me I had to take my net worth and allocate it for the next 30 years I'd probably roll with the above and close my eyes. Slightly levered on 1-3.

Man the dip this past month has changed my portfolio composition drastically. Not in any particular order... Additional accounts at Vanguard and IBRK: SSD MSFT BRK.b META BX NNI SBRCY EASDY FFXDF RTO NVO RTX

BRO is one of those companies that's aways expensive.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/what-we-learned-about-treasuries-on-the-night-of-april-8/id1056200096?i=1000705233459 Turns out nobody was dumping US bonds

I've been leaning into Chris Mayer's writings a lot more this past year. This dip has been pretty beneficial for me as I've been able to repositioned quite a bit of my portfolio for what I feel are higher quality companies that I really don't have to worry about as much. Still have the odd 1-3% positions I trade around or mull over until I scale them up in size, but holding quality honestly feels way better. Knowing what it's worth (general direction) along with a high quality management team you are confident in is a much better framework for me personally. Hoping to spend much less time looking for new positions and instead adding to existing ones on dips the next few years. Check the portfolio less often (set price alerts) Spend more time with family/friends and doing things I enjoy

What a time to be alive. Completely forgot about that

CCJ

Oof, honestly good for Canada though. They could use some growth in the private sector. Way too many people working for government up there.

I go to Canada quite a bit and the people really are not that different. The more coffee shops, bars and common man places you visit the more you see it. Definitely agree on the slightly Europeanized version of Americans. Outside of some of the major cities in Canada there isn’t much difference in “looks”. I think there are a lot of similar issues in Canada that you find in the US (infra, junky small towns/cities) . But it’s less in your face due to the small scale of the population. Imo much of Canada (if you ignore major pop centers) is very similar to the MidWest in the US (where I lived for 7 years). Overall solid place to visit and good people. I will say food kind of sucks there though lol nobody ever says “let’s order Canadian tonight.” Poutine is eh…

Plenty of mudslinging going around from all parties….I’ve read plenty of “cheeseburger eating obese American” comments the last few days. Including from Parsad himself. If you can dish it you should take it. But I’ve seen unprovoked comments from both sides of the “aisle.” Thats just the environment we are in and after all this is an anonymous forum. We’re all children at heart

High level: Less leverage and generally better operators. I think their fleet and future fleet meets market needs better than Boeing. I think we will see diversification from US (Boeing) long-term (speak of the Devil ). I think it's fairly priced, which is why I haven't sized it up to a full position yet, but I think with the backlog and contracts in place (assuming escalation cost clauses are the norm) we should see continued growth. Air travel will grow quite a bit as more areas open. I think the duopoly structure will remain long term but short term might see some movement away from Boeing. Carriers and logistics companies need planes. There is a shortage globally for various reasons so long-term I see pricing power, demand growth and recuring revenue. I think any issues will be smoothed out over time and frankly with a 10+ year horizon I don't care all that much what they are now. Right now Airbus is the better operator. I think they managed the last supply chain issues, shortages, and production (quality, quantity, contacts) better than Boeing.

ABNB, NVO, EADSY

How I plan to ride this one out....Great day to be alive either way!