Castanza

Probably the same thing that happened to reasonable democrats....the pendulum swings....Reasonable politicians will make their way back into politics when the opposing side takes the high road and extends an olive branch. Until then, long live polarizing politicians.

lol ffs back on the transitory inflation again….i can’t make heads or tails of this shit. Might go 50% Fairfax 20% Berkshires and 10% Joe, 20% SCHD…close my account for 5 years and see when’re we are then….

I've raised a solid amount of cash and generally like to scale into companies a few percentages at a time. Would probably take it up to a 10% position as I generally run a pretty concentrated portfolio. I trimmed some of my RTX and moved it to Airbus. No negative views on the company, just becoming oversized for me.

Airbus new position ~3%

Americans have an addiction problem…look at credit, personal debt and savings rates. Hell you can now do pay in four loans for fast food…delayed gratification is an antiquated idea to most Americans. That chicken comes home to roost eventually. Exactly why I live a debt free life…people have been brainwashed to maximize “opportunity cost” without regard for their personal finances. If troubled waters are ahead it’s going to be one Hell of a big wake up call for many.

Americans have an addiction problem…look at credit, personal debt and savings rates. Hell you can now do pay in four loans for fast food…delayed gratification is an antiquated idea to most Americans. That chicken comes home to roost eventually. Exactly why I live a debt free life…people have been brainwashed to maximize “opportunity cost” without regard for their personal finances. If troubled waters are ahead it’s going to be one Hell of a big wake up call for many.

Agree with this 100%…again I’m of the view that the US remains longterm and that relationships can be fluid both positive and negative. I think history shows this. But I am not in favor of these tariffs and frankly don’t know how anyone can support them at this point. I also have zero desire to live through a 1929 event. Anyone saying “we’ll survive” is ignorant about the realities of that. You have to live in the world you have. What in your view is a good defensive strategy here?

“All I can say is don’t buy bonds, but none of you really care.”

Merely a comment about disruption to the supply chains. Obviously in a different manner. From an investment angle I am trying to think about what will be more disruptive. Tariffs or Covid-19. edit: I also find it fascinating how people can hold two views that are polar opposite of each other. Globalism is in a weird place. Tariffs are bad for both the below as they create more expensive goods and punish poor nations with likely resulting in even worse working conditions. Never the less, people hold both of the below views at the same time. What is the solution? - Speaking out against sweat shops and poor working conditions - While also wanting cheap goods.

I have said already that I think Presidential powers have grown too far since Clinton. Trump is the worst one to have the office who could take advantage. I agree with all that. I also think the tariffs are a net negative in the short term and do slightly change things long term. But I see much more chance of amends being made than some on this forum seem to think. Everything people are afraid of trump for is something Xi already had and does. So how does that make sense? It’s putting the cart before the horse imo.

Do you trust China more than you trust the US long term? Do you trust China more than you trust the US short term?

Obesity is a choose….famine is not

Mhmm you mean like Covid-19 where global trade came to a complete standstill and killed how many people? 20% more expensive Nike shoes vs that again…way over emotional….

Yeah now examine quality of life and wealth generation. Better yet, go read a history book.

Thats such a narrow shortsighted view. Trump represents Trump. He is the current leader with a single term…remind me how old the US is? Also remind me how the US began? A war with Britain…which eventually became a US ally. If two countries that split from each other and have a war can eventually become allies…I think we can endure 4 years… Some of you guys are letting two weeks alter your entire framework. Who do you think will be elected next? US citizens will be voting for someone to restore relations. 4 years is not a long enough timeline to permanently change anything in the US. I was reading back through some journals and opinions during the times of the Revolutionary war, the Civil War, the Nixon era, the 2018 “trade war” and a few other troubled waters the US has gone through. The opinions and emotional reaction I’m seeing from many on here is nearly identical…. Hell some of you are starting to sound like “British” China CCP loyalists… Trump is temporary….

Congress could have gotten rid of IEEEP many times now. But in reality they have encouraged its use for economic sanctions by Presidents many times now. Congress is also supposed to declare war…yet they haven’t since WWII

Asshole sure…But a Dictator because of tariffs?

Because the “US” isn’t “Trump”. He’s the current CEO. You would think the expectations the EU has for the US (in terms of respecting allies) would be the same standards they hold for themselves. Do you play the long game with COUNTRIES; or do you make short term decisions based on single term Presidents? These types of views are extremely hypocritical imo. Exact thing @Gregmal is talking about imo.

So the US is criticized (really just Trump) for breaking 100+ year ally relationships over some likely temporary tariffs. and somehow we jump to…. EU, Japan and other ally nations opening aligning with a dictatorial communist country. If that happens I can’t help but think that’s far worse than imposing tariffs on ally nations. I think emotions are really getting the best of people. Otherwise the world is much more insane than just Donald J Trump; and there are bigger things to worry about. Just my two cents…

Are you taking physical delivery?

Awesome, thanks for the insightful response

Why would China dump treasuries at a loss instead of just letting them mature and refuse to purchase more? I feel like this whole China and Japan are dumping doesn't make any sense. Granted I am by no means a bond guy but they would A) Be taking a massive loss...B) End up with USD and C) drive up the RMB. Haven't they tried to dump in the past to reposition their reserve with not so stellar results? Doesn't it make much more sense (If you're China) to negotiate new trade deals with say Europe and then transition that debt as it matures to Eu debt?

It is, but if he doesn’t pause tariffs he could choose to cut off ADRs. I don’t have to worry either way with DHL or UPS.

Looking to avoid another Sberbank situation