Castanza

Starting to lean this direction as well. Almost makes me want to pick a basket of a few logistics companies. UPS, FDX, DHL, even AMZN all beaten down. Same with rails. This tariff threat is looking pretty similar to the initial covid reports….at least on the front end. Obviously not going to see insane e-commerce volume in a trade war. But fuel prices should come down which is a positive and hopefully we’ll see some cost passed along. Part of me just wants to look here because it doesn’t make sense if you go by the media…

Sure on a personal level I agree with this. What I was referring too is the interaction between opposing party members. For the people on the far ends of the spectrum it's clearly an all or nothing game. Then once moves are made it's all hindsight analysis with a few "I told you so's" tacked on. I tend to agree with Sweet that most people who voted for Trump were not expecting this level of escalation. But I also think all the "I told you so" leftists saying "we knew this was going to happen." are full of shit. Nobody knew, hence the market reaction. Last time I checked the market is full of money, not political affiliations. I mean was Trumps first term that bad? Quite a few people on here in the "I told you so camp; seem to think it was disastrous. If Covid didn't happen would they be saying the same thing? I doubt it. People need to learn to extend an olive branch. I'm not a fan of the tariff policy and how it was implemented, nor how Trump lacks empathy, character and any form of diplomacy with our allies. BUT I'm not breaking out my crystal ball to make predictions on what happens or looking for told you so's based on hindsight analysis...I definitely admire your ability and some others on here like Greg who filter the noise. I'm not an economist (not even close); and 99% of this stuff is way beyond what I understand. All I know is that TYPICALLY we think things are worse in the short term than they end up being in the long term. TYPICALLY markets go up over time, and good companies manage their way. So I'll hold my breath, close my eyes and hit the buy button. A bit of cynicism goes a long way

Peak tribalism….you’re either all in or not. Hindsight analysis galore. Being an independent gets more difficult by the day… It’s all… ”How dare you support a single policy from the opposition” “How dare you speak out against a single policy from our parties leader”

Yup, play the game

Not sure, but that’s impossible to put into practice. The market has more up days than down over time. I think that’s the best you can do.

Kramer is that you?

For the psychological benefit of it. It gives you a buffer to capitalize on mistakes or take advantage of opportunity. Makes you feel less beholden to the moves of the market imo. I heard this recently on a Morgan Housel podcast and I think it’s a good fit for what you’re asking. He summed it up much better than I could. Harry Markowitz won the Nobel prize in economics for exploring the mathematical trade off between risk and return. He was asked by the Wall Street Journal how he structured his own portfolio. Regardless of his work he went 50/50 bonds because his goal was to limit his future psychological grief in the market which would lead him to make poor decisions. Is it rational? No…but it is reasonable.

It’s not a 1% chance of dying…it’s a 1% chance of being injured and having a 1-5 year recovery. I’ll take that risk any day of the week.

Cool and that’s actionable how? The amount of valuable insights you’re ignoring from very wise and savvy investors on this forum is almost sad to watch. You’re an American with relatively low taxes, plenty of investment vehicles and easy access to markets. The world is your oyster, yet you want to drone on like the drunk at the local dive bar. At least take a short position and show us some skin in the game. If you missed the market’s 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. And missing the best 30 days would have reduced your returns by an astonishing 83%. https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/timing-the-market-is-impossible.html

Hopefully more volatility

Good thing I'm holding JOE with a 30 year timeframe in mind...You think this will be the last economic headwind the American (or global) economy faces?

Well he might be out of luck then. I'm not sure he's going to find his asteroid hedge in the markets. If I was 23 right now, I would be working as much overtime as possible and living on ramen noodles.

You're 23....You should be DCAing as much money into the market as possible and not giving a flying fuck about the economy unless you're upskilling for a new career field. VTSAX BND BNDX

Been picking some up as well.

He forgot the disclaimer "This is not financial advice"

In a nation that has survived thousands of years and has maintained a focus of "endure at all costs." As a FRFHF holder it's crossed my mind once or twice the last few days

Who was qualified to be President in this last election? I’m not sure we’ve had a “ qualified” candidate for a few decades. Kamala and Biden are about as qualified as Trump. We’re still waiting for Kamala to list something she’s accomplished other than Willie Brown. Biden is Trump on paper with a Jimmy Carter persona (and I say that lightly). Come back to the center….the water is warm.

Ironically Tesla is a prime example of what US manufacturing looks like. "The most American Made car" ... High end and advance manufacturing has it's place in the US. We do this and advanced design very very well. But the view of "My granddaddy worked and retired from GM blah blah blah" is just nonsensical and outdated.

We'll see what?! What are you predicting is going to happen?

What year do you think debt became a real issue for the US?

Yeah that’s how it’s supposed to work. But that doesn’t mean that’s how it’s does work. Plenty of presidents have used past acts and laws on the books to “skirt” around Congress with different provisions. I should probably take some of my own advice and stop bitching and start buying….although I’m not buying much yet….. Plus Trout season starts here in PA so I’ll be occupied for a bit. My elderly neighbors gave me a vintage R.L. Winston 4wt this past winter since he can’t get out anymore. Keen on putting it to work.

I didn’t vote for either his last election and I didn’t vote for either the previous election. So I will shout from my ivory tower. Right now we are dealing with bizarre undescriminate tariffs calculated by some kid running a lemonade stand. If the election went the other way, we could be looking at wealth taxes, unrealized gain taxes, much higher corporate taxes etc. Which is worse short term and which is worse long term? I think it’s fair to say they are both terrible precedents with negative near and longterm outcomes. Both have escalation clauses of unknown proportions. Looking across the aisle isn’t much different than looking in a mirror. Just my two cents.

Sure, I agree to an extent (bread & circuses), but as imperfect as our system is, I'm not sure putting a net worth requirement on voting rights makes sense. Sure, but aren't you above the "mUH SiDe iS BeTTeReR" rhetoric? Trump (Clinton) -> Biden (Trump) -> Trump(Biden/Kamala) is a symptom of the broken system imo. 12 years of crooks, swindlers, liars, cheats, and cock suckers running for POTUS can't make it any more clear imo.