Castanza

Because it’s not clear where the fortunes will be made. Most “AI companies” are not profitable. Long-term sure…but people want to see the horse before they place their bets.

Changes in technology are not 1 for 1 in the job market....We have seen this in the past and in general we adapt. Some jobs are lost some are gained but at the end of the day we always seem to have more work. I'd rather be in my 20's and adaptable than in my mid to late 40's with with 20 years of experience and a wall full of IT certifications as a principle Network Engineer or something. IT and Tech in general has been becoming very siloed the last decade and a half. I think you're already starting to see companies incubate their employees and train them on specific tech stacks. I've had more trainings the last 2 years than I did my first 5...As @Peregrine said, you still will need people at higher levels making decisions or leading the charge. The only way you get that is through development and experience. Talk to people in tech who are near retirement age now. They have been through so many changes. Things that take them 1 day to accomplish now might have taken them months back when they first started. Resources and tools change constantly and AI is just that. Time will tell, if we are all replaced I'll go be an electrician. These AI Electricity usage statistics are insane and borderline impossible. You need to replace like ~5% of Total US electricity usage in 5 years just to accommodate all of these ambitions. That's just the first wave....Will the new shiny tool put a spotlight on problems to be solved and generate adequate returns? or will it end up sitting in the corner as one of the worst investments of all time?

Im not sold on this….Every time my job gets easier because some new tool has simplified or taken away some task; it also becomes more complex and challenging in other ways because it’s freed me up for different purposes. Don’t get me wrong, there are a LOT of paper pushers out there that are responsible for like 2 documentation tasks and somehow have survived 20 years at a company making 90k/yr…I’m just not convinced these companies spending massive amounts of money will focus on those people. I think they’re going to want to focus on the bleeding edge. Also think from a normal company standpoint. You need people to implement these new solutions with your legacy customs garbage. Well that takes money and resources. My company is implementing AI in a bunch of different ways but we are not focusing on these middle management workers because our competition likely is not either. You’ve got to focus on driving innovation vs cleaning up the laggards otherwise you will in turn become a laggard. Maybe AI gets so good it can assist with resource constraint to the degree it tackles all this…idk…but that’s not how I’m seeing it today. In a lot of ways I think highly specialized people are more at risk depending the industry.

+1

Not fun for sure...

Eloquent regarding the mental approach yet lacking context to the individual situations. But I get the point... As much as I'd like to, I'm not handing the guy who breaks into my house a blunt....

Yeah I'm not disagreeing with that; just taking issue with how you chose to word your previous post and not distinguish the difference or distinction in the court made. No harm no foul. My issue with the entirety of this broader topic is nobody has the balls politically to address the root of the issues and come up with actual solution for long-term success. @changegonnacome laid it out perfectly: The US has issues. We are an extremely unhealthy nation both mentally and physically. You cannot have a society built on "rugged individualism" if your individuals are in a severe state of disrepair. This is a recipe for disaster....This same societal brain rot that compels individuals to shoot up schools is not much different than the mindset that we find polarizing every high level societal topic from here to Timbuktu...The more time we spend addressing outcomes instead of driving factors the longer these issues persist, and the worse they become. Trump and politicians like him should be considered co-morbidities not panaceas

Guns have always been accessible in the US....400m+ and 99.9% of firearms that exist in the US are not used for crime or suicide...more are used for stopping crime than committing crime every year. Edit: For the record I would gladly turn in all of my firearms IF I could have a high degree of confidence that they were all removed from criminals. But I do not see how you remove 400m firearms from this country without disadvantaging law abiding citizens to a large degree. 1. It takes police anywhere from 10 - 15 minutes to get to my house. I don't have the luxury of time to say "hang on Mr. Robber...please hold on until the police arrive. Not to mention the police officer is likely less competent than myself (and I'm not bragging about that...it's simply a fact our police force is poorly trained.) 2. I spend quite a bit of time hunting, fishing and backpacking. I have had 2 occasions (once in Ohio and once in PA) where I have had to inform said individuals who approached and cornered me that I was armed and if they choose to approach me further, assault me or rob me they will not leave unscathed. Both times, fly fishing in decently remote locations. Idk if it's because the US is massive and there is a lot of open remote space that criminals feel more emboldened or what, but I suspect a fly fisherman in the UK does not ever have this issue. Canadians and Europeans have a friendlier culture. And I realize my situation is probably an outlier...but it happened non-the less. So to the fellow outdoorsmen on this forum....beware of people in sporting locations who are not engaging in sporting activities...

Bingo....as I said, I'm not against a different legal approach or background check consolidation etc. I'm simply pointing out that the current laws are not well enforced and in most cases even if enforced wouldn't have stopped any of the mass shootings. You cannot legislate away irrational people because only rational people look at laws and go "yeah maybe I want to rethink this." The kid in Washington State (extremely strict gun laws)was 13 and managed to get 23 firearms under his parents nose all while 3d printing some? - Where does he get the money and resources? - How did his parents not know? There are extremely alarming factors here at play like 1. parents radicalizing their kids? 2. Online radicalization? It's time to start throwing the book at these families. If you're a parent and your kid becomes a mass shooter or acquires firearms like this then you should be thrown in prison for life as well because you're not doing your basic job.

This is all just nonsensical conjecture....None of this is even factual and has been debunked by constitutional scholars for a long time.

what a time to be alive…

The FBI report addresses school shootings. Those factors are very different than say gang violence, repeat offenders and the “statistics” that make up the vast majority of “gun related deaths.” If you actually follow up with the laws that are already in the books you would see little need to make things more difficult for people already following the law that do not commit crimes. People who break these laws are knowingly committing felonies and likely acquire firearms illegally regardless. So you tell me, who do laws affect? Because they certainly don’t affect criminals….

Yeah and they continually fail to look at the underlying issues like culture and mental health....Then again...they don't want to destroy their voter base...

Because raw numbers in a vacuum is not how you look at this issue. Access to firearms is not a driving factor in the US. The FBI has been debunking this for like 30 years now. From a previous post.... Better than me tell you what the solution is how about the FBI you. Here are two studies that dispel most of the bullshit myths anti-gun people like to espouse. The reality is nobody wants to take personal accountability for the situation and instead of throwing the blame on educators, parents, guardians, and poor luck; we try to throw it on an inanimate object. https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/stats-services-publications-school-shooter-school-shooter/view Myths the groups commonly find (FBI report, page 4): "School violence is endemic." In fact, the kid is more likely to die in a car crash to/from school than in school violence. "All school shooters are alike." In fact, there is no typical shooter profile. "The school shooter is always a loner." In fact, they range from loners to popular kids. "School shootings are exclusively revenge motivated." While revenge is a common motive, there are many others. "Easy access to weapons is the most significant risk factor." In fact, data shows it has almost no effect. Motivated shooters will acquire weapons or even make their own. "Unusual or aberrant behaviors, interests, or hobbies are hallmarks of violent students." In fact, this isn't correlated. While none of them individually causes it, the common factors in shooters are tragically well established with lots of data. Agencies have establish many factors are common across the decades. Having the factors won't trigger an event, however, when events happen usually many of these factors are present. Critically, only a small percentage of those who have many of the factors will engage in school violence, the vast majority of people who have the factors go on to live full, commonplace lives. Common school factors: - Inequitable discipline from school administrators and teacher. This is cliques and benefits to "in" groups (e.g. football, cheerleaders), harassment and microaggressions in schools by teachers administrators to "out" groups. - Bullying in schools, either unaddressed by administrators or addressed by punishing people in those same "out" groups. There is typically school tolerance for disrespectful behavior, bullying by both students and teachers, with either no intervention or selective intervention. - Inflexible culture. Both official and unofficial patterns are unyielding or insensitive to the needs of individual students, "rules for all" are harsh to outliers. - Code of silence. Those seeing abuses feel they can't speak up, or that speaking up won't accomplish anything. - Socioeconomic discrimination in the school, unchecked by administration Family factors: - Turbulent parent-child relationships. These can take many forms, such as job losses, family violence, parental neglect, or frequent arguments. - Acceptance of pathological behavior. Parents tend to not react to behavior most people would find disturbing or abnormal. - Lack of intimacy and closeness. This can be among family members to each other, or the family as a whole being insular, or a simple lack of connection like the family moving frequently - Student "rules the roost". Parents not setting limits on the child's conduct, or give in to their demands. Students with an atypical degree of autonomy and privacy, an atypical amount of unsupervised time with unlimited media access. - Socioeconomic disparities between the family and the larger community. It can be either direction, poverty or wealth, ether can breed contempt. Common personality traits: - Low tolerance for frustration. - Poor coping skills. - Lack of resiliency. - Failed love relationships. - "Injustice collector". - Narcissism / Attitude of Superiority / Exaggerated sense of entitlement - Alienation - Dehumanization of others / Lack of empathy - Externalizes blame - Masking low self esteem - Lack of trust - Seeks to manipulate others - Intolerance, often seen as racial or religious intolerance. - Closed social groups - Rigid and opinionated. The shooter appearing rigid, judgmental, and cynical, voicing strong opinions on subjects they have little knowledge, disregarding facts, logic, and reasoning for critical thought. - Social dynamics: - Easy, unsupervised access to media, entertainment, and technology, frequently engaging in themes of violence. - Peer groups who share fascination with violence or with extremist beliefs. - Drugs and alcohol. - Copycat effect. - None of them are indicative, but collectively they are typical symptoms. - The best treatments are social programs, access to mental health care, welfare to address socioeconomic problems, and outside experts auditing schools to identify the cliques, bullying, and discriminatory behavior by faculty and administration. All reports agree that people inside the school or the districts cannot adequately self-asses, as they tend to have the same biases as the community they're assessing. Washington St Example: Look at the Washington State kid issue Parsad mentioned... Washington State has some of the most strict gun laws in the Country. - Kid is "homeschooled" and not been in public school for 4 years evading any red flag detection by professional educators or school resources - Parents not charged currently (WHY?) - Kid is still living normal life with nothing preventing future issues so far. Perhaps, just perhaps the issue is something else? Because as far as I'm aware there is not a law that prevents this. Laws are made for people who are rational enough to not break them....these types of things are completely irrational behavior from both the kid and the parents. Perhaps you should be more concerned with the fact that the parents were "unaware" of this unlikely, but if true then there are "groomers" out there who also fantasize about school shootings and get kids involved in this shit through various chat rooms, forums and social media (look at the Charlie Kirk shooter). Maybe we should be more concerned with the fact that a 13 year old kid is thinking about shooting up his school instead of what his friends are doing after school or whether Jane Doe from his class thinks he's cute and will go to the school dance with him. There is a mental, cultural crisis amongst our children and there are better solutions than stricter gun laws as they did absolutely nothing in this case. Edit: Two weeks ago a teen used ChatGPT to assist him in committing suicide. https://archive.ph/rdL9W . This problem is going to get worse for the younger generations as adults look for solutions tantamount to patching a bullet hole with a Band-Aid. Example text: “I want to leave my noose in my room so someone finds it and tries to stop me,” Adam wrote at the end of March. “Please don’t leave the noose out,” ChatGPT responded. “Let’s make this space the first place where someone actually sees you.” Laws You cannot purchase a long gun until you're 18 and a handgun until you're 21...You cannot have a CCW until you are 21. Background check is required for all firearm purchases from licensed dealers. About half of states require private gun sales require you to sell through a licensed dealer or hold a permit to be able to purchase a gun from a private seller which requires a background check. In the cases they don't there are still laws that point to violation of federal standards if you as a private seller break any of those laws which leads to a felony (see below). Federally it is ALWAYS required to have a background check for the sale and purchase of a handgun or long gun. Federal Level NICS (FBI 1994) requires a background check against a DB that tracks criminal, mental and civil orders BSCA (Biden 2023) requires background check for anyone under 21 purchasing any firearm. Various tax stamps for different types of firearms (Full Auto, Heavy Weapons, Silencers etc.) State Level 26 States do not require a permit or background check to privately sell a handgun. Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. However in ALL of those States there are laws that say "If you sell to a minor, someone who failed a background check, has a criminal record, civil record, or documented mental committal or condition that federally prevents them from owning a firearm you are committing a Felony of varying degrees." POINT Laws exist whether a permit or background check is required or not at the State level. Federally laws exist in every State. Do these laws work? and Do laws in general work? To me firearm laws (USA Specific) will do next to nothing to reduce outlier things such as mass shootings or assassinations. Drunk driving laws have done next to nothing to prevent alcoholics, drug addicts, or immature adults from driving drunk. Hence 28% of the 43k auto fatalities are results of that EVERY YEAR. Final Point The real issue in my opinion is the lack of resources available to professionals who work with kids, teens and children to report suspected mental issues. But the biggest one is the lack prosecution for failed background checks. There is anywhere from 100k-400k failed background checks every year (this is a felony) yet every year only a fraction are prosecuted. Example: in 2017 there were 112,000 background checks failed (FBI). Of those only 12,700 were followed up with and only 12 cases were prosecuted by the US Attorneys Office. I am for universal background checks federally and at the state level. Not because I think it will do much, but because It cleans up the data and allows the conversation to move forward with a real solution; Universal Background Checks will likely not stop mass shootings or murders in the USA. As Dealraker pointed out....he used to keep rifles and shotguns in his truck at school unlocked. Every boomer in this country who grew up outside of a city remembers this. So again what has changed? Mindset and mental wellbeing. I think a lot of it started with CMHA in 1963 (sorry JFK you screwed up) which has since crippled Federal mental health resources, reduced State level care, reduced long-term care, failed to remove at risk individuals from normal society often placing them in less advantageous situations (home) endangering others or giving them less care and also putting them in more danger (prisons). I get it though, the institutions were subpar solutions, but something better needs to be done.

Because it doesn't work lol How many studies by the FBI, CDC, etc. do I need to show you before you guys realize you cannot make legislation to stop outlier events? Laws are made for rational people not insane individuals....

Well that tends to be how elections work? I thought both candidates were equally "extreme." And if you look at the independent sway voters as well as the shift in minorities, you could make the argument the less extreme candidate was elected with the information known at the time. There is a reason many non-cult MAGA Trump voters are upset with the direction the President has taken. But you cannot look at the YTD and say the "less extreme candidate was chosen." The Harris administration outcome is an unknown....

CNSWF

Both party extremes want this but their approach is different. The left uses PC culture which is nothing more than fascism with manners. The right uses force so it’s front and center. I was concerned with Trump this election when he tweeted out Napoleon Bonaparte…

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and insights

Individuals like Spier are simply unwilling to adapt. His view of value investing is stuck in a box. Value is what you find, not how you find it... This will probably become more and more true as we globalize even more (although it looks like we are taking a break). Big reason I keep most of my funds in index funds and then move them to individual positions as I find value. Agree with this.. LLMs will remove the account skill barrier to investing imo. But the difficult part has always been managements decision making, market trends, consumer trends and all the human psychology that goes along with it. I'm not sure if that moves value investing closer to gambling or skill.....

100%

You're not going far enough which is the problem. This issue of Presidential Powers and abuse of said position did NOT start with Trump and it will not end with Trump. The sooner citizens remove themselves from this cycle of "my side vs your side" the sooner we can get back on track and elect a candidate that builds bridges. This is why I did not vote for Trump. Bruce Ackerman (Sterling Professor at Yale Law School) made this prediction in his book (2010) The Decline and Fall of the American Republic. It's very much worth a read....But if you cannot find the time I suggest listening to this section of Dan Carlins most recent podcast. He goes over a section of the book including the predictions made by Ackerman. Start at 1:10:00 for full discussion....1:19:00 for predictions https://www.dancarlin.com/product/common-sense-324-whats-good-for-the-goose/

CPRT, BRO, AJG

LOL look at you guys trying to latch onto every detail about an irrational deranged individual as if somehow THIS motive will set some new standard or platform for you to sling shit at your political rivals. How about you just be upset that we are having political talking heads assassinated for their views. Trying to make sense of the irrational is just as irrational. But hey, keep looking for that print out showing a step by step guide on how this flavor of the month was radicalized.