Castanza

“Deep dive” but think Blackrock will control BTC. It’s amazing how little some of these talking heads know about BTC.

MANU on the block

Sentiment has been a wild factor since Covid. Certainly a traders sandbox out there

Anyone look at Lucid Group? Financials don't look great....quite a bit of debt (plus dilution), but the vehicle is pretty sweet. Out competes the Tesla Plaid in pretty much every category. Saudi backed enterprise (3b so far with a new plant coming online end of 23 early 24). Financials could make a turn for the better once that opens up. This is their baby and they seem to really want to make a mark in this segment. Saudi's sure have been making moves as of late! More competition the better for consumer end pricing. What will Elon do if Tesla is no longer the top dog in terms of performance and luxury? Seems like that day is coming soon to a dealership near you. https://youtu.be/EyDpQpcPpuc

In the same boat, depressing isn’t it?

LOL no you're right, my dumbass was thinking atm is itm...Don't trade options at while the gym Gonna list them and see if I can collect my 6 cents lmao

Yeah but the stock is trading at 92 and change this morning. Picked up some calls at 95 strike at .31 this morning figuring if the deal closes they will be itm and I'll get a cash out on the merger per OCC adjustment or if we get a decent bump today I'll sell before eod. Depends on volume too (which is why it's beer money).

July 21st expiry 95 strike calls.....very small amount (beer money). Figure with the 18th deadline tomorrow why not?

Picked up some ATVI and some weeklies $95s for shits and giggles

Fairfax

Trimmed MANU 50%.....figured a 30% gain is good enough to take some off the table. Looks like the Saudi's are pursuing other teams as well. Who knows if that could spiral into this deal falling through or souring the view of the Glazers on giving the Saudi's the reigns.

What made you want to sell? I'm waiting on that buyback report come next earnings call.

Trimmed another 25% today....we'll see what happens

Trimmed about half my position in VTS this morning

"Einhorn isn’t suggesting that optimistic valuations are hiding darker secrets at St. Joe Company" LOL short reports hit different in hindsight. Sounds diabolical! Nothing more sinister than "overvaluing" some of the best beach adjacent property in the US around what 5k/acre at the time of this article

Thx for the perspective

One thing I’ve noticed about myself over the past five years is this. The more cash I hold the more likely I am to enter trading positions. The less cash I have the more likely I am to add to long term positions. I’ve performed better with less cash on hand. Not sure what the underlying psychology is but it seems similar to burning a hole in your pocket. Assuming some others are similar on here and I would also assume that overtime this changes as you mature from an investment mindset.

Sitting at 7% cash but have about 30% tied up in MANU, AIV, VTS, GENGF which are more of trading positions to me. Hoping some of these get some action the next two quarters

Nothing wrong with that view if you’re primarily interested in battlefield analysis.

Cleanuo is a long road no matter how you look at it. Ukraine is going to need a lot of help on this front (already are in many cases). The Wagner development is definitely a big deal. I’m sure the CIA is in the trenching looking for ways to exploit this further. ——————— To the others on this thread. I am 100% behind Ukraine and I do think the US has a responsibility to support through supply. However I think NATO is a primary cause of this war. I don’t think Putins actions are justified, but when I put myself in the shoes of the Russians I do understand it. Looking here at home there are plenty of people who would do desperate things to preserve the Republic. You can feel that in the air with the previous election. But often people are misaligned with the wrong person or take the wrong path. Frankly I get very tired of hearing people say “so and so would t do that.” Or “it doesn’t make sense for Russia to do that”. Nothing about war makes sense, and history is primarily filled with illogical and irrational individuals. There has been a lot of luck involved in very high stakes situations over the past 80 years. At some point the die is going to hit.

I think all of the things mentioned are factors. But for anyone to say NATO using Ukraine as a launch site against Russia is not a factor is simply ignorant. US wouldn’t stand for missiles in Cuba or Canada pointed at us. “Just keeping the peace though”. Putin has been saying for over a decade this was a concern. I think there is credibility to Ukraine being a geographical point of defense. Zeihan has pointed this out as well. Does Putin want the USSR back? Probably so. I mean he grew up there and saw a country that in his eyes was great and United and strong end up in ruins. He’s wrong, but his sentiment or nostalgia is understandable. A lot of people seem to miss the fact that Putin also understands the degrading demographics of Russia. So this being a last ditch effort to maintain the Motherland is understandable through his actions (although not justifiable). People will probably say that I’m crazy for saying that as well, but it’s well documented. And in my opinion if people can’t understand that point of view the. 1.) You haven’t walked in another’s shoes 2.) They don’t understand humans, political sociology, or nation states and likely think geopolitics is nothing more than a black and white game of risk. Putin is not a rational actor. He sees this as a last ditch effort and that he is backed into a corner. This is primarily why I think deescalation at all costs should be forefront on the Wests minds. Not matching escalation with weapons that are basically used for war crimes. This is the closest we’ve been to a nuke clacking off in a long time and too many people see this situation as simple and in black and white terms whit it is far far from that. As Bertrand Russell said….You can only expect a man to walk a tightrope so long before he falls….. sometime some day someone will clack one off and everyone if they survive will lol back at how foolish they were in their thinking. It’s short sighted by the west. We came close enough with Cuba…

Lol ok well most credible historians would disagree with that. This has been rehashed so many times it’s nauseating how blind some are to the reality of cause and effect. Cuban missile crisis ring a bell? Lucky we had Kennedy or we’d have 50m people dead….

Just like the Afghans, Iraqis, Vietnamese, huh? You make war out to be black and white. Nothing about war is ever black and white. Including the powers at play. Handcuffed? That’s putting the cart before the horse with a deep and long history of how we got here. War can last longer? There is a sure solution out of this war. It’s called a peace deal, negotiations, etc. There is an in unbearable amount of times throughout history where peace deals could have been struck, but short sighted bureaucrats with little skin in the game decide otherwise. This war is following almost to a T the same playbook we used back in the 70’s when we got the Soviet Union to invade Afghanistan. If Berlinsky were still alive I’m sure he would be licking his chops at this proxy war and the ability to cripple another nation at the expense of others citizens. And I am not saying the NATO expansion was the only driver of this war. Putin and Russian leadership also had their motives, but it damn sure was a pillar of what we see. —————————- At the end of the day there is a HELL OF A LOT of people who love to pound the table on war that have absolutely ZERO skin in the game. There is no shortage of boogiemen in the world to justify war with someone.

Idk about that…it’s our weaponry and our money. If Ukraine asks for a nuke should we give it to them? Zelensky has no shortage of requests at others expense. Because 15 years from now when some farmer or kids gets their leg blown off while plowing a field they aren’t going to say “Damn that Zelensky!”….no they’re going to look at the shell shrapnel and see printed in the side U.S.A. Escalating with a weapons system that was in the process of being phased out because of the lasting devastation it leaves the local populace with is a precursor to other weapon system escalations. Ukraine is already going to have a hard time dealing with all the land mines. Throw in some cluster munitions and you have billion and billion and billions of dollars sunk in cleanup efforts before the war is even close to being over. Realistically what’s next? What do we give them next and where does it end? How long till we put boots on the ground ourselves as we realize this war is going to last for a long time? The move seems a bit shortsighted to me.

Mmmm idk, go back to the Cuban missile crisis and pretty much everyone but Kennedy wanted to start a nuclear war. Every general and advisor was pounding the table to attack Cuba. One of the few times in history where a single man had such an important decision with hindsight outcome. Ignorance and miscalculations are just at common at the highest level of governments and their military leadership. Not saying it’s not the right move. But a match in escalation could also be the start of a new path which in the end could be the wrong move. Time will tell. DPICMs are what’s being shipped. They are guided cluster bombs that have various submunitions like incendiary, armor piercing, or just regular anti personnel shrapnel type explosive. They absolutely are cluster bombs. Obama was trying to retire them in 06 (which Biden was in favor of) over his term. Trump got rid of that program and not Biden is utilizing them. Pretty ironic tbh.