Castanza

Yeah nobody is denying these issues. The "Left" has botched so much shit and has responsibility in all of this. We can all disagree on the degree of influence we have to right the ship. But anyone who is unwilling or unable to see the issues with "their side" or the concerns raised by the "opposition" party is part of a cult. I mean @cubsfan can you seriously not see anything wrong with Trump? You're in support of his self enrichment schemes and cozy nature with terrorist states?

I don't disagree, but you cannot "right the course" by force. American Democracy does not survive as an idea alone. It needs durable institutions along with durable checks and balances. This is exactly why our attempts at spreading democracy have failed in so many foreign nations. The durability of institutions be it government, education, media etc. are of utmost importance. We are currently burning it all down and at the same time consolidating power through thinly veiled excuses such as "we are course correcting." Yet, much like entitlements never being walked back, power has an even worse track record. So those championing Trump and his crusade of the Left should be careful what they wish for. Because in 3 years time the story could be very different. Likewise the Left who admonishes the right and attacks all common sense or societal norms should also be careful what they wish for because real fascism is just around the corner. Push and shove leads to power vacuums with no held prisoners....Trump is not Hitler, but how Hitler came to power is very similar. A zombie government that "forgot it's own people" and was in limbo for decades....That rhetoric has always been easy to sell. As I said, I'm most interested in the upcoming election....because it will be the litmus test for all to see and for all to take part in.

Who holds the scale and what are you measuring against? It's not the Constitution and it's not the Separation of Powers. Quite literally running an experiment with a mad scientist at the helm...I'm not confident Trump is a Cincinnatus...

I agree, but that is mostly a short term approach to a potential long term issue. The longer this era of American Politics drags on the worse the problem becomes for America on a global pecking order level. The competition is not standing still... Meanwhile I am happy to see some fractures form among the incumbent parties. Maybe we finally see the dissolution of the two party system within the next few elections.

I share your concern and I don't know; hence my comment of wondering if there is light at the end of this tunnel. With the current path what's the end result? We hollow out our institutions, weaponize the judicial system and consolidate power; all while increasing divisiveness. There is no shortage of historical examples of where this ends up. America only survives as long as the checks and balances remain along with durable institutions. They are actively being dismantled by both parties at alarming rates. In 8 years we've gone from calling out Hillary for her 200k speaking fees as Secretary of State to Biden putting his crackhead son on Ukrainian O&G boards to Trump accepting massive gifts, self enriching himself and his family to the tune of billions and cozying up with known terrorist sponsoring states. It's really unprecedented....I have no idea where this ends, but I think there will be more power consolidation and further abuse of the Constitution along with an increasing zombie state of the federal government. The litmus test will be Trump on a 3rd term....I thought no way in the beginning; but the more I hear people say it's impossible the more likely I think he tries it. Ultimately I don't think it happens, but what I'm more interested in is the appetite of the general public along with the political pundits. That will be the moment we (Americans) know what issues the future of American Democracy is stacked against. Culture building and Power Vacuums do not mix well....

Please explain to me how you build culture by tearing down institutions, weaponizing the justice department, demonizing people groups, violating constitutional rights, and politicizing the military and law enforcement.... Reagan and Roosevelt built culture and bridges....Trump is trying to obtain it through forced compliance....

Some claim he's done more good in 10 months than most presidents do over a full-term. I find it entirely fair to judge the negative aspects of his term in a similar manner. The negative precedents and abuse of powers far outweigh whatever positive claims of Trumps successes.

Cubs c'mon man....Sure Trump is making moves on some things (very few)....but you cannot look past the blatant abuse of power when it comes to self enriching, continued weaponization of the judicial system, bypassing congress when it comes to tax changes, weaponization of the Nat Guard and ICE coupled to the massive amounts of Constitutional Violations, and abuse of the media. Trump will not go down as one of the best presidents ever, not by a long shot. Good leaders set good examples despite adversity or what the "opposition" is doing. Personal integrity and character do matter as well. Trump has none of that... I'm generally a slightly right of center person...I voted for Trump in his first term but did not in his second campaign nor this last campaign. Saying someone who quotes Napoleon (an absolute dictator), cozies up with Saudi and Qatar (terrorist sponsoring States), and possibly permanently degrades tradition, relationships with allies, and unspoken rules is one of the greatest presidents of all time is just wrong....

Until the American people unite, revelations like the names in the Epstein files will only fuel the divisiveness. Emotion is the kryptonite to analysis. Most people are still just looking for some discovery to sling at the “opposition.” We’ve gone from “voting for the lesser evil” to grandstanding on the shoulders of your perceived lesser evil as if that’s some type of moral victory. I’m all for releasing the Epstein files and seeing what’s there. Root out the filth and hang’em…However, something tells me this is the tip of the iceberg. More questions, divisiveness, and grandstanding on deck along with zero accountability. You do begin to wonder if there is light at the end of this tunnel…

People will only leave if he can actually implement change. Albany is not in favor of his tax raises so time will tell. As it stands now, he's just another asshole politician with big bullshit ideas. I worry about trends over decades, not outlier elections.

Hopefully not the next BlackBerry

Running low on available cash until a few financial moves finalize but added a small bit to AJG, BRO, CPRT, FFH, and CSU this week. Probably going to sit tight for a month and see if we get another 5%+ down on some of these. Not sure if this is year end selling starting early or AI fears of the T-800 but either way I'll gladly add to compounders.

Yeah I agree with that but that was pre social media and cameras on you non stop. Hard to tell what “then” would look like with today’s environment. I Was listening to a Sam Harris discussion with Jordan Peterson and they were talking about how this frictionless media is bad for society. There used to be editorial gatekeeping that would mitigate the reactionary content and also serve as a filter for credible sources, and journalists as they had to publish their content through a filter. There is good and bad with this obviously as you have to trust your institutions. So we are in a weird paradigm where trust in media and credibility of media is at all time lows, and we have this runaway independent press where anyone can build a platform and have access to millions of viewers without having anything vetted. Those past filters tamed reactions to things because there was no place to go to continue ranting. Nixon said and did all kinds of things. Johnson pulled his dick out for a reporter. On and on… Trump antics coupled with this media environment and consumer outlets (social media, podcasts etc) is just the chefs kiss on mass rage baiting.

Yeah I mean there is no denying that Trump is the most divisive POTUS to hold office in a long time. He's the new Nixon...But it's also true his antics are not necessarily a 1:1 reflection of the views held by his voters. The same can be said for both sides of the aisle. Two party system really causes people to throw the baby out with the bathwater because it doesn't allow for a nuanced expression of politics at the voter level.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali had to flee the Netherlands (her adopted country) because of radical Muslim groups literally hunting her down for speaking out against them in her film Submission while living there. They successfully murdered her film partner. The Netherlands had to house her in a prison to keep her safe until she was able to flee to the US. EU is going to struggle more with radical religious groups vs purely ethnic racism. There are issues all over for most every person. The only difference is perspective, personal anecdotes, and prime offender groups (ethnic, religious, etc.).

Are the intelligent members of COBF really arguing that racism is something new? If you're in the majority group you likely experience less racism (fact). But that does not mean it doesn't exist for the other groups (fact). I reckon that racism will not go away in ~2040 when the new minority ethnic group in the US is Caucasian. If history tells us anything racism will persist and usually the majority group is the one primarily perpetuating. Political violence often follows changes in majority/minority ethnic group changes as seen globally in both modern and less developed nations.

Not a lot of integrity below...just saying...Pence, Obama, Carney, Romney? Presidents: Trump, Biden, Obama, Kamala, Hillary Clinton, G.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, G.H.W. Bush.... Vice Presidents: Pence, Cheney, Gore, Candidates: Kerry, Romney, Canadian: Carney, Trudeau

It's even easier to say "my side is better" when they are not in office. Remind me, wtf did Biden accomplish when he was in office? All he did was further erode societal trust in our institutions. It's not playing Switzerland to say both sides are bad. It's extending an olive branch and saying...perhaps we should examine the good and bad on both sides and come to sensible solutions. There is a reason the founding fathers were so afraid of a two party system... Real world is highly selective and subjective... Example: Netanyahu (agreed he is highly corrupt) ... insert XYZ politician into his position and the approach/outcome of October 7th likely would be no different..

I'm not defending Trump. I did not vote for him and do not support most of what he's doing. But this reply has more glazing over than a Krispy Kreme factory...As I said, Trump is a symptom of the system that consists of TWO PARTIES. The authoritarian approach you're seeing is the result of a broken political system and a weary populace looking for "action" over anything else. When large swaths of the public perceive it's institutions and government systems as broken or weak THIS is what you end up with. ACTION fills a void and then ORDER begins to proceed FREEDOM. It's the same mechanics that allowed Hitler to take office after the political neutering Weimar Germany went through between 1918 and 1933... The question everyone should be asking is WHY did each half of the population lose confidence in it's institutions? Democratic institutions are arguable more important than democratic ideals. Samuel Huntington said "America is not great because of the character of its peoples, but because of its institutions." When you erode that trust you've got to work overtime to correct it. Politicians have done an extremely terrible job of this the last two decades. Congress has been paralyzed for nearly two decades. Special interests and lobbyists have ruled the land. BOTH parties have been trying to take advantage of said institutions by over politicizing them. We've also allowed our institutions to double down on poor policy which has contributed heavily to the lack of confidence. Couple that with the weaponization of certain institutions by both parties and we end up here.....with a dismantling of many as an attempt to strong arm results preferred by your voting populace. Trump is heavily challenging the separation of powers. I agree with you the risk is 100% real. But much like investing you have to play the long game not the short one....That requires thinking about how any why we ended up here and what the fix is...When I look around the political landscape I don't see many leaders worth looking to.

You've really lost your balance and nuance when it comes to political opinions. Anyone with a brain should be able to parse reasonable reasons why some chose to vote for Trump instead of Kamala the same way anyone with a brain should be able to parse reasons not vote for him. Individuals voting for Trump has nothing to do with the failing education system that has been "run by" the progressive party for decades now. So who's product is this? Who's failing is this if you claim it's the education system? Because last time I checked you have the top universities in the US staging mass protests for pro antisemitism, pro communism and pro socialist ideas. The entire backbone of higher ed in the US and education policy is like 90% left leaning. Zero diversity of thought....yet Trump is a result of a left leaning education system? Is that uneducated view a result of the same education system you claim to have birthed the Trump Era? I'd argue Trump is a symptom of the system in its entirety. Push and Pull makes the pendulum swing....I do not think things get better post Trump because the dialogue is not easing at the "average voter" level. This "issue" is also not unique to the US. Sam Harris gets it right when he said we are seeing "Global Weimar" play out. Europe is arguable on the verge of being worse than the US with the rise of actual far right leaders (see Herbert Kickl) and political parties being favored. The world is arguable the most anti-semitic it has been since WWII. Average far left voters are borderline embracing radical jihad groups with outright wild claims of genocide in the West Bank. In the same way average right wing voters are embracing the idea that every illegal immigrant here is a criminal and should be treated inhumanely or not given due process. Both parties are supporting their own version of McCarthyism. The issue of how we got here is never up for discussion when those speak out against said actions/policies. You cannot problem solve if you don't first think..."What did WE do wrong?" "As an American - it's absolutely embarrassing." I agree, but I think some self reflection is needed on your part. When someone align with extreme views on either end of the spectrum they begin to view moderates and centrists as extremists....As someone who misses your political nuance respectfully you're pushing the boundary. We all need to do some self reflection here....because history shows us the grass is often not greener on the other side.

Whatever the solution to all of this…removing the humanity of those being targeted is not a good first foot forward. Most atrocities are carried out by Ordinary people…a good thing to keep in the back of your mind.

I think you should take a closer look at Lincoln and the period before you make that comparison. I’d suggest the book Battle Cry of Freedom by James McPherson. To me we are much closer to McCarthyism, Midnight in America (post WWII), or even the Nixon era. America has survived far worse than what we are experiencing currently.

There has been more than one opportunity to buy GOOGL or MSFT over the years. GOOGL as early as this past April at ~$140. Also didn't Fairfax exit their GOOGL position this past year?

Yeah I’m not understanding it either…I guess we will see when AJG reports in a few days.