Gregmal

The whole “value investing is dead” rhetoric is total loser bullshit. If a company proves its ability to generate value for its owners, it will be noticed, and assuming no onerous capital structure, somebody will eventually get greedy and try to acquire it.

I kinda have a theory too that with the spread of inequality and wealth concentration there’s a FUBU element that’s much more prevalent in what I’d call tier 1 assets. Real estate, stocks, private businesses. These are things for rich people, run by rich people, and increasingly becoming scarce. There is a finite number of places to put money. Debt is largely for suckers. Think pension funds and entities that need a return but aren’t practical about maximizing it. So real assets and things of value just continue to get sucked up. Think Hamptons parcels that were owned by normal folks, then sold for cash to middle class folks, who then got cashed out by developers, that then sold to families who put it in a trust and use it one month a year…. So my loosely held belief is that over time this adds to the bid under quality stocks. More “cash/money/currency” less “place to put it”.

If they’re forced to sell anything because the stock trades back to where it was a few weeks or months ago then they’re idiots.

I honestly don’t know why this is such a big deal to people. Either way, the move is pretty immaterial and anyone who’s followed Block knows that he is somebody who at best, is very comfortable being deliberately misleading. Like the sleaze balls who sell sports betting tips claiming they have 80% win rates. And you don’t follow closely but as far as the eye can see know that number isn’t right. And when you actually see the dudes at the bar they’ll tell you off the record that the 80% number is totally cherry picked but no one will care about them if they gave you the entire picture.

Yea Block is one of the bigger offenders with that. When you hear these losers saying things like “we put our research out there so that the market can see if they agree with us”….it’s a blatant lie and the truth is that they do it because they know the market will instantly move in the direction they want it to. Has nothing to do with “their research”….that’s just the cover.

Not gonna lie, this is a much better thesis than “St Joe trades at an unwarranted premium to book value”….

Another thing that’s kind of weird is how he more or less insulates that the proper valuation here is like 3-3.5x earnings? Even if they’re over earnings it’s still like what? 5-6x normalized? Kinda bizarre.

Yea I totally respect someone like Steve Eisman and the way he goes about it, but these bullshit artists who basically do nothing but take positions and then rant and rave on social media and TV....total scumbags.

How about the bald weasel's Super Micro hit piece LMFAO?

Whats funny is a lot of what he's s saying WAS true, and the stuff I used to bitch about here all the time. What he's missing(or purposely omitting) is that these issues have largely dissipated over the past 3 years, or simply become irrelevant in their size. But I think it tells you everything when some jackass needs to "make an announcement" let alone go on TV to bash a company. Its as deliberate an attempt to move the share price as it gets. I would be shocked if he wasnt actively transacting in the stock in the coming days.

I do hope the old man comes out swinging given the history with short sellers trying to create problems here.

The reason many of these short sellers play the "accounting" angle is because most folks arent well versed in complex accounting and when they hear someone is an "expert", often just take what the "expert" says in good faith. Which gives some smash and grabber a whole lotta leeway to manufacture rhetoric.

What is “detached from reality” mean? For instance, with a 4% 10 year, to me this is equivalent to paying 25x for zero growth or inflation protection. I’d buy DEO all day at 17x or MSGE all day at 15-20x. I could justify paying 30-35x for double digit growth with a runway spanning a decade. If we re at 5% rates, that’s still 20x. So I guess that’s why I get confused at all the “expensive” talk, because it’s all relative. Some people still seem to live in a world where the overall market should trade at 15x, and I just don’t think that’s a realistic expectation.

When you look at what Ackman owns, it’s hard to conclude that he ll diverge significantly from the broader market in a bad way. If the overall market does poorly, he could do the same. During this time period though, he has proven to make great decisions either clipping the down move, or bottom ticking great businesses. Conversely, if the market does well, so will most of his holdings. So I just view it as the premier way at the moment to get market+ type alpha without having to think twice. Buybacks will work wonders over elongated periods of time. This is also something you can really crank up the allocation on during those drawdowns.

You folks need to visit Florida for a primer on both successful immigrant integration, as well as the productivity benefits of “the good kind” of immigrants. Go to Miami and talk to the Guatemalan, Cuban, Venezuelan immigrants. Then ask them what they think of the folks coming over the border from Mexico.

Don’t think it matters. Ackman is one who reliably outperforms and occasionally does something heroic. If there was no ego and no stock buyback; I probably wouldn’t own this. But take those two things and give it 5-10 years…you’re gonna make a fortune.

This is just more of the insanity. What in the world are these people making the policies smoking that they think such micro specifics are important like this. Not more than 2% but above 0? We for sure would have charlatans screaming about -0.5% a “deflation” in progress and we ve already heard “3% is massively, massively, 50% above target”….when the majority of it all is just inconsequential and irrelevant fluctuations that in isolation make cool story bits.

One of my best friends families was from England. Dad worked for Paribas. Mother a nurse. They came here after living in Chile for a bit. Took them 9 years, and over $150,000 to legally get citizenship. This doesn’t include the hours spent having to take US history exams and such. Imagine the rage if we asked folks to endure 1/10 of this? They whine about even having to get a valid ID. And it’s all allowed by certain parts of the establishment.

Immigration is not a one size fits all issue. It must be categorized and by each there’s different levels of usefulness or cost. On a specific date, about 3 years ago, there was a very obvious surge in the lawless and destructive type of immigration at the southern border. This is 100% the response brought about by the actions of politicians and the people that voted for them. Same as the wars. We went from mocking one guy for making peace efforts with our enemies while asking freeloading allies to step up and pay what they should to where we are now where you’ve got a new war popping up every year. The type of immigrants we want are the type that Canada wisely sifts through. The types tech companies and medical facilities seek out. The types in Southern Florida who came over from socialist countries and work 7 days a week. These are not the same types of people flooding NYC and SF.

Just think, all you NYC high earners…you’re paying 50% of you’re earnings to the government so we can let in illegals, have them bused to a city of their choosing, allow them to beat up cops, and then let them loose with prepaid debit cards….

I’d take getting thrown out as a badge of honor given those courses and their ideology ultimately breed the disgusting legions of academically oriented politicians and bankers thatve fucked so much of society. It seems pretty clear that everything has normalized. I don’t need some academic chart to tell me what I see in day to day life. Even the energy guys have finally shut up.

Yea but Jerry heard some bartender in Kentucky got a 12% raise so now he’s worried about a wage price spiral.

As I’ve said before I really don’t care if it is March or June or 3 or 30 rate cuts. It doesn’t impact how I invest. What’s perplexing is like Fauci, how this scumbag is basking in the spotlight, doing 60 minutes interview, etc. All his bros are placing wagers on recessions and he’s still talking about inflation lol. Both dumb and attention seeking. Same as the expert Fauci who totally made up 6 ft social distancing, told us vaccines stopped the spread, and enjoyed dousing himself in makeup prior to the television appearances.

Meanwhile Jerome Fauci just can’t let go of the spotlight.

He is a great investor and giving him a 30% or whatever discount to NAV, while he’s seemingly committed to repurchases, with an eventual US listing on the horizon….just seems to be too much of a head start if you have a longer term passive horizon. Even his “errors” I think people exaggerate. He was right fundamentally about Herbalife, it’s other stuff that got him in trouble. Valeant he was also largely right about the business model of acquire and then raise prices. So many fortunes were made with that model, it just got too big and became large enough to draw widespread scrutiny which toppled it and made the whole model flip. His hedge trades are great. I also think he has a penchant for bottom ticking great businesses and additionally, selling Netflix so soon IMO showed great humility and willingness to concede which is exactly what you want from a manager, independent of whether it was the right or wrong move. So I just think it’s too lopsided and he seems like he’s got 20 good years left in him which works for me.