Gregmal

More DEO

Isn’t the story a whole lot simpler? -This is a business that generally produces acceptable returns. -We are in a macro environment where this type of business should produce better than average returns. -We are still being punished for the sins of a company and macro situation that really doesnt exist anymore. Thats all you need for massive outperformance, and it’s already showing up.

Meanwhile even ambitious attempts to solve problems are met with resistance from the scummy establishment. Even when it means out light making up links and issues that don’t exist just to kill time. https://nypost.com/2023/11/12/business/utopian-city-california-forever-still-faces-national-security-probe-pols/

I totally agree with this take. I added for the first time since high $400s the day before earnings. The inclination was always to sell this thing but when I’d step back and look at the facts it just seemed like a given this is setup for 10%+ for at least the next 3-5 years assuming all else equal.

In the meantime ignorant and rich Americans will continue to bash Asian and Middle Eastern countries who are structurally better off than we are. I’ve always been amused by this dynamic. Cuz you know, the horrors of living in Dubai where it’s a crime to lack integrity or morals lol. We need to be more like Merica where you can legally shit yourself on the sidewalk and then pass out with a needle hangin out your arm.

Totally. Thought this was the most likely scenario coming out of COVID and it still seems so. Once the idiots at the Fed get told to exit stage left…. to fuck off with this dumb obsession over 1% of an arbitrary number…it’s off to the races. Housing and infrastructures are coiled and ready to go; just being held back by Fed retards and their nonsense. Once folks understand how much is tied to the housing and infrastructure ecosystem, a glimmer of which we saw in 2021…the magnitude will become apparent.

Nothing special. Just a good enough brand at an ok enough valuation that I’ll look at in 5 years and sleep well at night in between.

Bought some DEO for the put it away for 5+ section of the portfolio

Further on this, I think it’s important to look at who’s doing well right now? Largely in the real estate world, the owners of high quality assets are doing very well. Those well capitalized in residential are killing it. Those who know how to do value add are killing it. Pretty much anyone who does it the way it’s supposed to be done and thinks long term which is what you’re supposed to do with a long term asset. Who’s doing poorly? Mainly just the suited monkeys whose entire game relies on cash out refis and high LTV borrowing, leeching fees off OPM, etc….those aren’t true owners or investors.

How do you determine this? Couldn’t it also just have been the recovery from an unwarranted short term panic?

From what we’ve spoke about you’ve probably already gotten a good bit of validation on the safety of these assets. It’s just a real world vs paper world where the dynamic and debate exist. If one owns private assets and sees the fundamentals first hand, such as you’ve done say with the farm acreage, you know the reason most are scared or whatever is cuz they’re priced out or just not very well versed in how the asset behaves. The little people literally run around scared of headlines or think stock prices reflect reality, but anyone who’s a big boy just doesn’t think like that. There’s an age old saying about he who has the gold makes the rules and that hasn’t changed. Ownership in critical resources is the modern gold.

Yea I generally played super aggressive and would sacrifice piece for piece until ultimately someone made one mistake and at the end of the day piece by piece if you held that one piece advantage you'd win. The best were the looks on peoples faces 5 moves in when id just take their queen with my queen and happily let their king take my queen. Most didnt know how to play without a queen when really it shouldnt matter.

Funny you mention this. I played all the time up until maybe high school when it got ruined by people memorizing strategy and learning different technical styles. Nothing better than just playing pure instinct and reaction vs what the game essentially turns into at the highest competitive levels.

Exhibit A for market stupidity Great earnings… nothing not to like Some asshole in a sweatervest at Cuck Asset Management…”too rich, I’m selling today!”

This is the real pandemic lol

I got a few more pupilbonds today just for shits. Meta 5.75 2063s Imagine at some point they’ll be a free carry spread vs margin rates at IB

This. I view things in the context of “where does 20% up or down take us?” 20% down here is back up the truck again whereas 20% up is still kinda in fairish value territory. So nowhere near sell territory and push comes to shove buy.

Nothing new. Most of the “most successful investors” or “hedge fund titans” are equally if not greater salesmen. Even the not so great investors like Pabrai, can sell water to someone who’s drowning.

Added a little more to Fairfax. Love buying the breakouts

Ok even simpler. How many people, if given a piece of land, would even know the entire process to go about building? how much would it cost to simply go through the approval process? And how long would it take? It’s disgraceful.

Yea awhile ago I owned Simon and part of the not expected but certainly possible super bull case was something along the lines of that stuff and perhaps some government allocated funds incentivizing the development. Nothing has happened yet but it makes sense. Development cost is a bitch though and Simon guys are too smart to foot all of it themselves. So I just revert back to JOE who has county and state pay for tons of their shit and then for the rest gets 40 year HUD loans at 3-5% fixed rate. More reasonably though, housing is solvable, but the people who make the rules are housing people and won’t kill the golden goose. Everyone whines about government stock trading….stocks are small time. They all own tons of real estate.

The Fed and the Institutions buttfucking the middle class can be seen no clearer than what is your traditional starter home. You own one? Great. You got some equity. Good. We ll lend to you, against that equity for 10%. Or we ll cash you out at market. Don’t you dare get inspired though…waiting for you is the rental market where you can keep paying us. Or….well, that forever home you planned to buy now costs double what you had planned on and haha we got you because even if you want to get back into your starter home, it’s 50-75% more expensive on the monthly carry. So don’t get ambitious you peasant.

Not if you ignore the fangs stuff

Doubled WHR.

Housing is the most obvious “this is ripe for disruption” market, and yet…it’s been almost impossible to disrupt. There’s a reason why, and that’s not changing anytime soon.