Gregmal

What would be the preference for gold vs crude? I think the commentary we've seen recently, highlighted by Tepper the other day is spot on. The environment is hostile to these companies. Demand will increase almost certainly if the factors driving inflation take place, probably even if it doesnt. Meanwhile supply is hamstrung. "He added the day Exxon Mobil Corp. added activist investors to its board was the time to buy oil stocks -- because it signaled drilling will eventually decrease over time, and with it supply." This occurred a couple weeks ago and prices arent too far off. If we want store of value, IMO it helps having a use for the store of value. You can do plenty with crude....gold on the other hand pivots back towards the "its worth what someone will pay for it" and BTC is better/equal or well you can make jewelry with it arguments which Ive always felt have merit.

Been shorting Jan 22 puts ~30-50% OTM on CLF, SLB, RIG and buying Jan 23 calls ~50-100% OTM. Also small adds to ALCO, JOE, MSGS

Why'd you leave Fidelity? I would probably have everything there if they had better margin rates. IBKR is low quality IMO but serves a purpose. Although they've seemingly gone from being the lowest cost option to now a more expensive than peers, nickel and dime operation with abysmal customer service.

Wow this of the surface seems pretty cool. I'll have to look into it but is there any real info on the beta? IE how kind of allocation would be suitable per lets say $100k? An ETF I'd imagine is fairly low, but it the fund holds options it could be pretty gnarly. Thanks in advance if anyone has answers or just wants to throw shit against a wall and guess.

While thats one take, the other side is that basically all of their other investments required a batshit crazy market/event in order to work. If we give them the benefit of the doubt for being "prudent" here, they deserve quite a bit of the other side of the coin for all the other stuff thats been done over the years. Ultimately, it seems like this was exited for what is ultimately a rather insignificant sum for FFH...which begs the question, why was it necessary at all? Meanwhile they have very meaningful, long held, turdco positions that they refuse to monetize. Which I cant help but think is another "look how smart I think I am" move by Prem....aka more of the same behaviors of the past.

shorted a few CLF 6/25 $20 puts

Hi Ray, Thanks for mentioning the VIC writeup, I cant believe I hadn't seen it before but was a good read. I dont really think there's a specific writeup I can point to. I've followed the company for years and one of the beauties of a company like this is that its pretty static. Once you familiarize yourself with the assets there's not a whole lot of upkeep you need to do on your thesis outside of fairly simple stuff like listening/reading transcripts. What lead me to conclude this is now a good IRR type investment this winter and especially this spring was several things. 1) Its failed to participate in any sort of appreciation seen by most assets/companies despite the fact that there hasn't been any value destruction here. 2) Management now has a multi year track record of solid decision making and is now starting to do IR work. 3) FL and Sun Belt RE, especially land, has gotten so hot its inevitable that it starts bleeding into this valuation. Because of 2) you can get confident that it will be capitalized on. 4) All else fails you have such a margin of safety(even still at $34 IMO) that its unlikely you lose anything but opportunity cost..which in a fickle market isnt too much of a concern to me.

Yea if you arent with the movement, your civil rights are free to be violated. Its a real shame.

Yea I think theres two reasons for that. 1) the company has been left for dead and 2) often with land sales, putting them under contract and closing them are not necessarily the same thing. You definitely dont get 100% credit in the public markets until the checks are cashed. Either way, glad to see people making money. If you think a 5% dividend yield, and ~70% of NAV is fairish value for a company in a stable/boring business, thats expected to grow earnings, continue paying down debt, and increasing dividends while basking in the Sun Belt growth story....well you've still got about 20% upside til that happens. The volume of late has been good, they've been doing IR work. Remy has stopped selling. And they've shown theyre willing to sell the land. All good stuff.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3706008-alico-announces-178-increase-in-dividend-additional-ranch-land-sales-and-update-on-esg-initiative Well, there's most people's annual returns...inside a month, on a highly asymmetric investment. Not selling yet, still favorable outlook here and shares are cheap.

A lot of REITs are still quite cheap. There's still a ton of covid related spread that needs to compress. Whether its MF or triple net, if the 10 year is 1.5%, those should be priced at 150-250 bps over that(in terms of best of breed companies/quality assets). Which is basically where the private market is, but the public markets have a good ways to go. Obviously this refers to top notch stuff. Look at something like Realty Income(which I dont own but only because I see better returns elsewhere)...the fact this is trading with a 4% yield(~80% payout ratio pre VEREIT synergies) despite growing NOI and raising dividend during 2020 is stupid. Just because "things have gone up a lot" doesnt mean they're overvalued. One day the world will wake up to the fact that bonds are useless, S&P is at 45x, and yet, you can get 5-10% annual returns in real estate without trying. If they dont wake up, well I guess thats even better for some of us.

Agree with the above. I employ something similar. Buy a small starter, generally 10-25 bps. Then you start researching it. If it goes down, who cares. You can either find the lower price appealing, or let it go. A position that size going even to 0 is still almost meaningless to your bottom line. As Mike said, if it goes higher, you're still making money, whats the problem? 10% return on $10,000 is still better than the return you'd get of $250k if you are in cash. If I conclude from my DD I like it, I have several options. Generally recurring, repeated buys spread over the period of time I consider reasonable to average into an upcoming catalyst. IE earlier this year I saw the BRK Feb earnings as a catalyst. I started 2021 with an 8% position and every day up til the ER release bought some stock, more on down days, up until the ER, taking it to a ~40% position. Then I was done. If there's no catalyst I'll generally take a more sizable starter, 1-3% in a couple purchases and then just wait for more material dips to add. If something is controversial I will look to sell puts against it to collect premium and add lower. If its really boring and liquid and doesnt pay a meaningful dividend, I'll sometimes cut it with options. IE BRK at $225 I took some $175 calls for Jan 22. MSFT at $250 I'd just take a position in the $200 calls a few months out. If the stock declines toward that basis you can then sell puts at that strike to keep the position on and then sell OTM calls against it. The only thing I try not to do is buy OTM calls as they're generally a sucker bet. But thats not to say you cant ever do that. I'm looking at some energy stuff at the moment and if you expect a big move in a notoriously shitty biz, thats probably a good situation to limit your exposure/outlay/capital at risk via OTM LEAP calls. This is a good topic though. I find its easy picking winners and losers. The challenge is often how to maximize what you get out of the idea and doing so in the best risk adjusted fashion.

Took some off at $26 on new buyout offer. Stock still cheap though.

*Starting to come back. Thats the key. From there its still a long ways away from when all the debauchery can take place and cause things to melt up. I'm currently working on a 40 year fixed, stated income, IO first 10 years, sub 5% rate loan. Feel like a total dork getting excited about nontraditional or exotic financial products, but thats pretty awesome we're seeing these products again.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/youre-californian-state-wants-cover-160016223.html 1st inning. Expect a long runway and plenty more crap like this...loosening of lending standards, homebuyer programs, etc.

After looking at the chain, I sold some more of these and then shorted some slightly OTM puts expiring 6/18. Real fat premiums on those.

LOL on the Portnoy stuff. Very true.

Took 150% of basis off the table. Letting the rest ride. Go make it a MEME now Reddit.

@RichardGibbons, earlier you had mentioned that people who talked about the lab leak back in February of 2020 were rightfully outcast as conspiracy theorists? May I ask why you concluded that? There is and was a lot of circumstantial evidence supporting this. Whereas, can you tell me what facts there were at the time to support the notion that it came from bats at a wet market? Because I am not sure there were ANY at all, and the only things we relied on were sources who have turned out to be liars. I believe @hasilp89post was spot on. It was commendable in that he owned up and basically admitted, "yea I got fooled because I took some of these people and government folks at face value"....he also IMO hit the nail on the head in stating that basically the ONLY reason the lab leak theory was immediately dismissed, is because Trump said it, and everyone as a result immediately had to take the other side and became invested in discrediting it. Do you feel otherwise? While I can understand why someone like @jurgis is averse to these types of conversations, you've always come off as center left but intuitive and capable of seeing and applying fact and deducing what is likely. Why the knee jerk reaction to just label and dismiss such as in your post earlier today? What is the point in that? Is that not basically the root cause of what lead to this entire mess? People just slamming a label onto things they have an interest in manipulating and then the masses fall for it? If you just say "conspiracy theory", "far right/left", "Russian asset", you immediately and successfully condition people to ignore the content? Is that not dangerous? Do you not think there would have been significantly less confusion here if in February or March of 2020 there was a coordinated effect by these same folks to basically admit that hey, it is most likely this is a lab manipulated virus? All this same thought process and deductive reasoning skills are helpful in life as well as with investing. Should people just immediately write off investments because an analyst says its a sell? Its purported to be a pump and dump? Its a Portnoy REIT! or conversely just buy because so and so said its good? Of course not. So I dont understand why we wouldnt apply the same critical thinking lens to other areas of life as well.

Quick idea I thought I'd throw out there....I know Ive already discussed over the past few weeks with many here, but might be worth a thread to brainstorm names or whatever. SPAC warrants are IMO a really simple way to be a contrarian, a speculator, and a value investor all at once. You can size the positions modestly creating a bit of a barbell approach. More or less SPACs are currently toxic. Thus you can now take your pick of the best quality managers at the same prices as the worst ones. Regulation and SEC inquiries should make deals going forward much more conservative Business combinations will likely be on better terms. Companies seeking a spac will prefer a quality sponsor. You can buy warrants which give you a 5 year call at 15% premium to deal price on pretty much whatever you desire for a fraction of what they were trading at months ago and just in general, what I consider a very attractive price. Some examples, Softbank SPAC warrants can be had for $1.50 vs a $6 high earlier. Boston Omaha's Yellowstone can be had for $0.65 vs $2.30 earlier. I think there's definitely bargains and multi baggers to be found as the baby has been thrown out with the bathwater. Cheers

Hi Rat Clown, If I may ask, what part of seeking the truth or seeking accountability is politics? Are you not recalling how many people hastily dismissed the lab leak theory for the past year? I specifically recall several folks here even trashing another member for posting a Hedgeye story about this last March. Otherwise, if you wish to revert to old habits of trying to get me banned or censored, please just be forthright. The lame attempt above to pressure and manipulate @Parsad is cowardly and in poor taste. I have told Sanjeev on several occasions that I am fine shutting the covid thread if its too controversial however the thread remains open and the lab leak, as well as the behavior and active cover up of many is disgraceful and worth discussing. Otherwise, I appreciate your contributions here as do many others. Your actionable investment ideas are second to none. Thx

Its amazed me how throughout this thing, the "science" guys seem so personally invested in this not being a lab leak. I know part of this is self interest...they love being celebrities and viewed as experts(rather than the nerdy putzes that most of them are), and they probably also fear the funding they rely on would be jeopardized....but its just another example of how many of the people who have played a pivotal role in how this thing has been handled, act out of self interest.

^ Yup. Its one of the purest exercises in trading and market psychology Ive ever seen.

Shorted some PSTH 6/18 $22 and 22.5 puts

Its not really about China anymore, at least in terms of holding them accountable. It can likely never be proven to a degree they'll cop to it, and even if it was, there's few realistic paths at this point. The point is to seek accountability from the scumbags in the press and the politicians who covered it up, who lied, who censored the truth. There also should be accountability from the shitbags, normal folks, who basically used this as an outlet for their derangement and created a situation where the politicians and media could do something like this. Isnt it insane that we had numerous politicians and publications matter of factly stated that the lab leak was "debunked"? "Fact checking it"? Are you kidding me! It was all an active fraud on the American people and a widespread politically charged aggression. Here's some new stuff: https://nypost.com/2021/06/05/trump-wanted-to-publicly-grill-fauci-on-wuhan-lab-funding/ Evidence China had a vaccine before the first cases were acknowledged. Evidence Fauci was scheming back in January. this gem: The meeting objective was to assess what data is needed to understand the evolutionary origins of COVID-19 and respond to “resulting misinformation”. Fauci gave a 10-minute presentation. By April, the intelligence community had concluded there was no chance that COVID-19 had been manipulated in a lab. “The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified,” the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in the April 30, 2020 statement. The statement was false; there was no consensus. More than 30 internationally renowned scientists signed letters to call for an inquiry into a potential lab leak. So get this! The POTUS wanted to investigate it....THERE WAS ZERO BIPARITSAN SUPPORT! There was also the determination that it would be impotent because the media would actively undermine it! And then craziest of all, the second the new guy, who has rampant history and ties ton China...comes in and immediately shuts down any remaining inquiries into it and continue appeasing/covering up for China! And while we needed 3 years to investigate some bogus Russia conspiracy....he's giving this, which is immensely greater in significance....90 freakin days! Gee, I wonder what conclusion this "inquiry" will have? People should be outraged and holding these folks accountable. However many of them, the ones who expressed fake outrage a year ago, the ones basically just using covid as a derangement outlet...like many of this ones who were posting on this very thread...are long gone and dont care anymore. Its disgraceful. As I said over a year ago(to which many of these pompous chumps said was an improper and selfish statement) fuck everyone else. Take care of you and your friends/loved ones. When something like this can happen, and you have the government and media actively lying and scheming and so much of the country wrapped up in "AHH I HATE HIM!!"...that they too become complicit in it...watch out. Thats very dangerous. So much of this could have been avoided...especially all the skepticism around it if there's wasn't so much of an effort to hide it and paint a political narrative around it.