Gregmal

Yea the NYC office market was like a game of Thin Ice pre covid. Of course there are a couple exceptions...youre always OK if you own the best assets...but otherwise, its a dumpster fire and won't likely get straightened out for awhile. If you like NYC, just buy some CLPR and call it a day.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3715659-home-sale-prices-peak-to-record-high-levels-cash-purchases-of-home-reach-30-first-time-redfin Is he still going against the crowd? Hopefully fellas like the one in the article stay strong and stay wrong!

I think theres merit to that. If you've visited a lot of those places you'll have noticed that South Beach or Phoenix are very different markets than Houston/Dallas. For varying reasons. But I also think a lot of those gaps are closing. Miami and Tampa for instance have gotten way more diverse as tech migration has occurred to those areas. Salt lake City I always thought had many similarities to something like Pittsburgh. DC IMO is ultra unique and kind of irreplaceable because of all the government jobs and government catering business. But NYC/Chicago/LA....I think while they are special....the lifestyle costs are out of line with alternatives. Do folks really need Chicago when Nashville is there? We've seen a lot of the LA to TX exodus, same as NY to FL. I think BG is right that the cap rates have flopped, but I think going forward rent growth will be the driver. At least as far as investing in those places goes. Can very easily see 5%+ for a good while in the hotter MSAs. The NYC/CHI/LA Can probably get back to "around normal" but those places also IMO had a lot of structural issues before covid. For instance NYC had a glut of new office coming online before WeWork blew up.

haha its funny cuz this morning I was looking over VNO+AIV again....I've been starting to get the feeling the Ny/coastal stuff may have a catch up rally ahead of it. Or that the sentiment may be starting to turn a little bit. Then I was like

Sold BRG for a quick 70c. Flipped proceeds into more PSTH.

Eh I think people are looking at it wrong. Of course the city will come back. I think Eric Adams is potentially a very positive step. However here's the relevant thing as an investor. The pandemic really highlighted how unnecessary it is/was to be paying $3000 for a one bed room in NYC when you can get a one bed room in Miami or Dallas for $1000. My man BG has the "Tinder index" which I think is valid. I grew up around NYC(NJ suburbs)....spent a good amount of time in the city, worked there for a bit. In terms of pussy, there was no comp. My buddies used to marvel at how an early something 20s chick in the burbs was considered a ho if she'd been with more than a half dozen dudes. But in the city, the average chick you ran into had a number of like 30-50! Totally different breed and mentality and I think it highlights how people go to the cities to get down and have a good time. But its about spreads. Covid highlighted this. Technology enables it. WFH helps. But the tinder premium for NYC fades because of thing like Tinder. If you dont think Miami, Tampa, Dallas, Phoenix, etc dont have the same sort on poon as NYC....I'd welcome you to take a due diligence trip. NYC IMO used to have a huge advantage pre social media insanity....but now that you dont have to rely on just bumping into people on crowded streets, theres just as much opportunity in other markets. Now this probably doesnt work for Louisville, KY...but other top tier markets in low tax and business friendly states? Absolutely. So thats where the investment opportunity is. No way NYC of SF should be at 3 caps with South FL or whatever at 5s. Which is what is was pre covid, but thats already compressed a ton and should continue to compress further. RE and especially income streams are about safety and growth. Doesnt take a rocket scientist to tell you where thats occurring naturally and where its occurring simply because of a big reset.

MSGE

Well, what seems to be largely missed here, is that Paypal stake was HIS. But now let the excrement debate and figure out how it should be divvied up....or why its not fair he's better at life than others.

Literally LOL'ed.

Or marrying hedge fund guys who obviously trade ethically and without abusing the system.....I always laughed how jerk off Paul Ryan did nothing with his life besides mooch the taxpayer and he s a multi-millionaire and now PE exec. AOC is a career bartender now wearing Prada and driving Teslas....

Totally agree. However your last two topics here may offend people like Rat Clown since they have a hint of politics....but I love em so keep it coming. You could also probably link this guy.... https://www.barrons.com/articles/sen-pat-toomey-bitcoin-ethereum-51625763320 If you have a silver spoon job and freeload off the taxpayer, you should be banned from investing in individual securities. Its no different than 90% of financial firms and law firms who prohibit such behavior to eliminate conflicts of interest. And for good reason. WTF do you need to invest for when you make that kind of moneybag the first place? Not saying those people shouldn't invest, but wait til theres no longer the conflict of interest or just stick to ETFs/index funds and managed accounts.

Continuing to play whack a mole, smashing the bid on weekly CLF puts. Also added a bit more JOE too today. Also started small BRG position earlier in the week. Disclaimer, dont follow me on this....its a shitshow schemeco IMO that hides behind great assets, but I think the force is strong enough on this one to grab $1-2 per share in relatively short order.

LOL funny how that works. Sometimes you gotta go Tony Soprano on Mr. Market.

I keep hearing this, and then I look at my CLPR shares and Im like "WHERES MY FUCKING MONEY?"!

Bro you cant to do that. The Asians are uninvestable. Them Japanese folks are terrible allocators and the Chinese are out to steal from Americans! Jokes aside Im a big fan of SONY as well. Lot of different, interesting stuff going on there.

^ Yup. Dont think its that crazy at all. Everyone is saying higher rates and we're now at 1.30 on the 10 year. This holds.....and soon we're gonna be talking about how crazy it is that new-build PHX/Austin/Tampa MF is selling at 2 caps and how its a bubble...which will continue to miss the point. The rent growth for these well located assets is insane. Anyone surprised can go check out the CAGR for Phoenix 1/2/3 br rents. Then ask yourself why any half sensible institution or family office would waste their time with a bond yielding 0-2% vs buying one of these bad boys. That said, given some of the stuff I own, seeing a 1980s apartment style complex sell like this makes me feel pretty good.

Eh, Grantham is an attention seeking diva who's got a perfect record calling bubbles because he's calling them every 3 months for decades. If you think bonds are a bubble, how do you deal with the simple fact that the rest of the world has been at or below 0 for ages? I am personally in the "rates will rise" camp....but sitting here claiming its a bubble when this is really just the state of the world....is pretty arrogant. Which is par for the course for Grantham.

Rates and multiples and thus stocks and bonds have to correlate. People can say what they want but at the end of the day the equation is simple. People need a place to put their money. So assuming you value a return on your capital, the ONLY things that matter is how much cash you are getting, and how stable/safe that cashflow is. With a 1% 10 year, 40x for a quality company, or a 2.5% earning yield, with some growth is a bargain.

Crude now well above $75.....money grows on tress. Its not stopping either.

If I froze up every time in my investing life that there was some perceived catastrophic risk I'd be nowhere. Theres folks out there who have called 29 of the last 2 bear markets. More money has been lost preparing for bear markets than has been lost in bear markets. I always try to remember these things because getting too caught up in the noise and worrying about every little thing and then placing outsized(and outrageous) probabilities on every risk is detrimental to ones wealth.

Watched Class Action Park. Pretty awesome history lesson on what could have been for that area. Between that and the Playboy Club, Vernon is a great cautionary tale of failed real estate development.

Haha yea no I didnt mean "you" just a general "you" as in first person. When everyone thinks one thing is inevitable, its usually time for a change in direction. And vice versa. Even if rates are headed higher, the sentiment gets skewed on a short term basis and needs to settle so thats theres people on the other side of the trade.

Probably as soon as you're ready to start trading the "Fed Can't Keep Rates Low" theme again. So much of this seems to be about consensus/expectation and the trading thats follows.

Good stuff. Thanks for sharing. Probably one of the best top to bottom trade setups and executions Ive seen on here. Amazing how a metaphorical tool from the tool belt thats been unused for 30 years can be pulled out and utilized but thats the beauty of always reading/learning.

^ "I dont post ideas often, but when I do, they're many baggers in like 3 months"....awesome trade. If I may ask, is the inspiration for the trade company specific, industry specific, or macro? Maybe all the above? Very bullish on these type of trades right now as I think the backdrop is perfect.