Gregmal

https://nypost.com/2021/10/25/our-brave-new-progressive-world-from-a-to-woke/

The "shit" end of the tech stuff and covid beneficiaries has definitely caught a bit of a bid. It formed a bottom and now seems perky. Interestingly enough, exactly in line with the confidence termites thesis, the quality big tech for the most part is just gyrating around a range. I closed many of my shit tech shorts but have also been pairing down long exposure. The long value, short tech trade put on in Q4/Q1 worked wonderfully, but I am not sure how much juice is left in it. Rather just take shots here and there on highly asymmetric inflation trades and catalyst driven discount to NAV stuff. So thats what I'm doing.

Eh I mean I post pretty transparently, regularly, everyone here knows it....even just mid last week posted $50k purchase of CLPR calls that are already up 40% in a few days and for me its just like .....eh, cool. Stocks and their derivatives move around. Its just how things work. Any given day you could probably find a few things doing well. And then Mr Housing Historian after his hiatus comes rushing back in to post and boast about how no one understands 300 year housing patterns or MEME stocks and he's a self proclaimed bossman cuz his TSLA and MRNA are up today......LOLOL

Huh? LOL You said people buy REITS because they dont get to see price fluctuations and dont want to see mark to market! My goodness! What are you 16? Go away and wait a few more days for your stocks to fluctuate and then come back and boast about having stocks that went up, just like everyone else who's long in a bull market...If you're capable of providing anything of value, go start a thread as @thepupil suggested. Or answer @KJP's question as he alluded to(you dodged it), or, IDK post your performance? Or IDK, go hang on Stocktwits or something. Doesnt bother me either way. Good for some comedy though.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3756853-twitter-ceo-jack-dorsey-wanrs-of-hyperinflation

This is always an interesting mental exercise when I see small businesses go up for sale. $240k for a taco and hot dog shop….why? What do they do? No land? What’s the incremental cost for this or that….why is the brand worth anything(most times it’s not)…end of the day generally my rule of thumb, profitable or not, is what are the assets worth. Add a discount and then adequate return to compensate for my time. ALCO is a good case study. Nothing exciting about the biz buts it’s healthy and profitable. Huge underlying asset. Place that into perspective of both your time, your money, and your current opportunity set. As you would expect, the attractiveness varies greatly. Conversely I do a semi reasonable number of private deals and your data is limited and the businesses largely unprofitable. My ideal info sets have to do with what’s the growth look like for the entire space. Where does this company stand in terms of having a moat or first mover advantage, and who’s bankrolling it. Just did a deal for shares in a company Emulate. Trading 10x revs and by 2025 the entire TAM will be roughly where the CURRENT EV is. But it’s a tech leader in a rapidly growing and disruptive space with some big financial backers. All I can lose is my investment. I have plenty of multiples of upside even if I’m not entirely right. So I’ll roll the dice.

The end game is coming into focus now. Today’s remarks make that clear.

Why not hit the $350s? You'd take in over $50 a share.

Most REITs trade publicly and have daily prices the same as any of your meme stocks.

LOL @thepupil nailed it. One of the benefits of the internet is there's different ways to generate conversations and elicit the yin and yang that ultimately proves helpful. Throwing a lot of mud at the wall in the NYC revival thread and then @BG2008 posts a beautiful rebuttal on CLPR. Thats shit working. Sometimes it goes off the rails. Other times someone just says something so stupid I dont know how to respond and then bolsters it with "I bought Tesla at $5 a share" or something even dumber. At this point its probably lost it purpose. Threads done here as far as I'm concerned. Time and the good ole P/L will tell who's right. And I dont think you're a wimp pupil. I'd just lever you 3:1!

So now the argument has basically devolved into “yea the land is valuable and actually, well, if you eliminate all the desired areas the rest is nothing special”! So I guess just avoid investing in heartland Oklahoma guys and buy meme stocks! We’re certainly getting our $30 CAD subscription costs worth today… Oh man….

Nah man. 3 things. Inflation, TSLA, and MNRA. Book it. Withstands the rest of time. 100% of the time.

Cathy Wood has some Kool-Aid for you. Stay thirsty my friend!

I mean even the sheer dumbness of “only tracks inflation”….so…. Isn’t that kind of what you’d want to own heading into a period of inflation LOL

Laughing at what? You barely post anything here and then out of the blue come out here making these ridiculous claims, IE wages are pegged to inflation and so are housing prices....changing goalposts and misrepresenting timelines, IE I generally state that during period of whatever in mid 90s folks in good areas bought homes and then at the bottom of a real estate crash sold them for between 100-150% profit and you claim this is a 20 year period and that it barely beat inflation, and then say it beat inflation but not by much(LOLz). Then you post some crap about how you own these piker stocks even though you never really post much here...and then you post your Yahoo stocks! watchlist LOL! Everyone knows when I buy and sell stuff cuz I post it. The APTS thread tells you everything you need to know and otherwise I dont really care what claim you make if theres no transparency or track record. You bought BTC at 1000 sold it at 18000 then rebought it at 3000 and still hold it too, right? I like to be transparent. I dont really care what piker crap you claim you bought or time periods of zero relevant that you post on your sophisticatedly crafted Yahoo Finance charts....I dont generally post this stuff but you're special so I'll treat you special. I only have the below attachment on my phone cuz a whiny investor wanted it a while ago. But Q3 MF REIT kinda crushed it as did energy. So you'll have to bear with me. Hopefully one day I can be like you.

Musta got that Berkshire style inflation!

EDIT: LOL I was actually in the process of responding but then I actually read your post and saw what you invested in, laughed really hard, and then decided to just move on. Cheers.

And FWIW since you know all the data and I clearly dont....would you please, pretty please, let me know how the Florida Housing Index(yes there's such a thing, I am sure you knew that though) did from 1998-2010? vs the other investment alternatives? Surely owning a FL home after those gnarly 35-50% destruction bomb crashes would have been devastating! Oh wait, maybe again you're misleadingly talking about absolute peak top to bottom drop? Ooooh, that helps with the narrative but not really. Anyway, the answer will surprise you(or maybe it won't since you know all the data and I dont)

Predictably again….”well back during the last crash”….durp. Anyway, mid 90s buying and then selling at the bottom of the RE fallout from GFC 15-17 years later at more than a double doesn’t beat inflation? Ok pal. How did the index do from 1995-2010? Inflation! Hint SPY 1000 to SPY 1500….. durp durp. Point me to all the people who’s incomes from 25 on have matched straight line inflation….not talking about career burger flippers either. At 25 I made 228k and at 26 I made 379k… inflation was crazy that year. Durp. anyway, hopefully all you money is where your mouth is. Such conviction in starting to worry me! Otherwise….

So with oil now pushing mid 80s we figure what? another $5 or so before we're told "transitory", another $20 or so before we're told "higher for longer but still gonna come back down" and another $50-75 before voters change things up? Crude calls are hot fire.

If you've ever lived in an area of desirability, you dont even need to bother rebutting something like that, you just know its preposterous. There's areas you want to invest in housing and areas you dont. Tell anyone who's owned Hoboken RE during the past 30-40 years "no better than inflation" LOL. Even in suburbia, buy a home for $400k in the mid 90s, sell it for $800k-$1m in 2010-15 is a story I can have verified by dozens of friends and acquaintances. From what Ive heard prime West Coast stuff is even nuttier. How bout Boca Raton or Ft Myers?

People will always quote ridiculous academic papers as fact. Go to NYC or SF or South Florida even and tell all the totally normal, regular run of the mill real estate millionaires there is no benefit/growth/return above inflation in housing.....real world vs academic always offer varying narratives and often there is truth to both but a high skew towards the real world. And yet, still, the academics will always point to "yea but in '06" or some exception to the rule scenario.

I mean isn’t that a high class problem? If we re talking MAA or CPT type valuation you’ve probably got a double from here at least. Again just look at the in progress rerate happening with BRG from 10.70 on word they’re actually gonna look at shopping the company. the key IMO is you have a big head start and if the growth happens and nothing changes you get 50-70% credit for the massive growth taking place and if the changes already in motion occur then add multiples to those 50-70c dollars.

If the BRG sale happens(NYC based firm, price action bullish..both point to it having legs) that should be a spark for a lot of these. But the simple answer is that any real estate, not pretty, weird capital structure, management question marks, etc....got thrown out during covid and for most of the institutions, put int he "never look at again" bin. Especially the ones that fell sub $500 or $250M market cap. Standard institutional behavior.