Gregmal

Yea its 71

https://nypost.com/2022/01/12/kodak-black-goes-viral-for-twerking-at-panthers-canucks-game/ Hilarious. In Florida you can practically have sex at a hockey game. In NY you cant go near people, but you can still watch. And in Canada you cant even go to a game LOL. Some folks keep focusing on "deaths"...to which one must rebut, who cares if you have no life?

@cubsfan brought up the discussion on PTLO and simply, I liked it so I started a position and plan to dig in deeper when I get settled on vacation. NATH I've owned a position as a buy and hold for ages and its got a kick ass royalty biz that is inflation proof and probably worth more than the market cap of the entire company. Management is also best in class and have done tons of buybacks and special dividends over the past decade.

Thats just what they do. Any idiot could see inflation ramping hard a year ago. Dont know why all of a sudden everyones worried about it. Unless they listened to the.....

Starter in PTLO and added a tad to NATH

I have no clue why anyone eats at McDonalds anymore. My kids love that kind of crap but Burger King is the clear cheapest and Wendys the best quality/value. MCD is garbage food and now its basically on par with diner food in terms of price. A(yes, 1) fuckin hash brown is $2 and a Big Mac meal is near $10. Screw that.

I went to a party type state school and then a no name school and wouldnt change it for the world. From experience, the schools some seem compelled to brag about attending indicate one of two things. Either you are a spoiled silver spooner, or you had no social life during your high school and college years. Often times its actually both of those together. Frankly, I am not sure what attending even the most storied universities would have dont to make my life better.

Oh yea, HVAC stuff in general is the biggest scam. For shits, go into HD and Lowes and ask the guys at those stands how come its the only thing in the entire store where they dont tell you what it costs! They'll of course give you some scripted bullshit about each house being different, to which you ask them to just tell you what the standard equipment costs, and they cant answer. Or just Google 5 HVAC companies nearest your ZIP and ask for a ballpark estimate for a 1.5 ton unit. Again, a good chunk will refuse to give you a figure unless they can come out to your place and the rest, holy shit get ready to be amused. Probably anywhere from $4500-$9,000. Then go look up what you can buy a 1.5 ton for through one of the HVACdirect type places and laugh at these fraudsters.

A year or two ago this notion that housing was in a bubble was farfetched and basically non existent. Prices go up 20% in a year and everyone is screaming bubble. If this is the bubble its the lamest bubble in the history of bubbles. Most stuff is barely or just marginally higher in price than it was 15 years ago....yawn.

Yea I think this is worth kicking around(which is why we're doing it LOL) but I just dont buy liquidity and a point or two on rates as the reason XOM gets buried. Inflation and higher oil prices will likely high near perfect correlation. So....this is in a danger zone because its making more money under the "crash" scenario? Or housing, on fire because of inflation protection and a huge supply/demand imbalance, gets walloped because? The current admin will never do anything but make it easier to get financing, not harder. Then there's still the issue of all those folks currently waiting on the sidelines to buy. BAC too, people just dump this on liquidity concerns? Cuz its traded perfect yo-yo style to the higher rate song. Every time we see rates rise so does BAC. If we're worried about volatility, arent VIX calls the way to take care of that? Or are we worried about a cliff that leads to flat pastures? The former I dont generally care about. We keep talking about a 2 week crash in December of 2018 but I mean come on. It was a 2 week algo driven flash crash. A year later with tapering and rates hikes we were at all time highs. But I would be worried about a crash of decent magnitude and then just a flatline because obviously that takes longer to recover from. Or phrased a little more differently. I'll put it like this. @Viking mentioned playing offense and defense. I agree. But also the best defense can be a good offense. No need to go Prem Watsa or David Einhorn psycho, but if you are predicting this sort of turbulence....HOW DO YOU MAKE MONEY FROM IT? My suggestion is pretty lazily and boringly VIX calls. But I am positive theres other and perhaps better avenues.

From the PCYO call today: Mark Harding I -- yes, intuitively, that's true. But honestly, that's not what we suffer from. We don't suffer from enthusiasm in our market. I think the price point that we're in, the entry level where I would say when we started this product. There were Taylor Morrison and KB, some of their first home. They were selling at $360,000. You can't buy a home out on our site for less than $500 now. 5% rates dont change demand for something people want and just cant get. The sub $400k home is gone pretty much anywhere semi desirable. Any buying opportunity in the future will easily be swallowed and then when we're talking $600k starter homes people will yearn for pullbacks and disruptions so they can hopefully buy them at $500k.

Unless we're talking, placing a bet that the Fed goes completely off script, haywire, and rogue? Which I think is a very, near zero probability, level event. It seems like thats what you guys are alluding to? We just sat through probably the most insane yearly inflation everyone has ever seen. And NOT ONE rate hike. If they do 3-4 this year, we're at like 1-1.5% fed funds rate? LOL Or they go rogue in response to what is almost certainly LESS inflation in 2022 than there was in 2021....and push the envelope to 2%? Or does inflation go higher in 2022 than 2021 and CL futures go to $200 and a 3/2 1500 sq/ft SFH costs $1.5M? There's so many opportunities to win with these setups. Just as there has been. These guys dont REALLY care about inflation and the status quo for everyone is to not rock the boat too much. They rather say they did 3 predicted hikes and deal with some rich people applauding more asset value increases and poor people grumbling like they always do. If the Fed gave a shit about inflation they would have started hiking rates in summer/fall of 2020 when I started screaming about it. It was clear as day to anyone who looked.

Yea 2018 December was great. A bunch of fools sold their stock because of a hint of a 25 basis point rate hike and then the bots took over. 2018, pretty much all year, people knew we were getting rate hikes and even after them well into 2019 it had no effect beyond some of the stupid 2-3 day panic attacks. Markets were at all time highs starting off 2020, so its not really every time the Fed gets hawkish stocks go down. Sure, we could get some volatility, but its going to be financial dork driven and not real world economy driven if it happens. Yes, stock market and economy are totally different, SOMETIMES. Most of the time I ve heard one make that claim its always cuz theyre missing something and then later on it turns out the market was pricing in stuff they just missed. Such as all the "how comes tha stock markets 10% off all time highs? Impossible! Euphoria" back in summer 2020. Turns out for good reason. So I agree, be nimble. But I mentioned earlier, in 2018 NVR sold off from ~$3000 to $2000 and now its at $5500. Maybe those sellers get to buy it back at $4500 on the next knee jerk panic sell. IDK. But 5% rates scaring people is absolutely crazy to me. 5% rates dont wipe out civilization. 5% rates dont wipe out demand for goods that people simply cant get right now. 5% rates dont wipe out demand for liquid assets that people could afford if they could get them. So again, HOW DOES IT HAPPEN? Just saying "rates go up" to me is lazy and already historically disproven. Everyone and their mom has been talking about rates going up and the Fed has been white glove smooth transparent in coddling the market into a stupid 100 basis point hike...what kind of idiot is going to get blindsided by it and sell BAC at 12x NTM or XOM at 9x and anything like that? SO if we're talking about AAPL at 40x or PLTR at 80x sales, thats one thing. Even the QQQ. But theres so much of the market that does well its surprising to me to hear all the doom and gloom.

It was talked about in another thread but how do you have an inflation when every well capitalized company needs workers and workers by and large are either fat enough not to work already or happy to make more money? The consumer is in great, dare I even say outstanding shape. I read somewhere today that Jamie DImon just said he hasn't seen a widespread robustness like this in 4 decades. 5% rates puts us back....to mortgage rates that were low enough to fuel the first housing bubble. Where does a recession really come from? Simply just saying "higher rates" ignores what has to go into the sausage machine to get them. If things remain this robust and rates get raised a few %, 1) its NBD, and 2) its because people are doing really well. Unless the thought is that they Fed "causes" the recession, and like I said, I just dont see how thats in anyones interest and I dont think Ive ever seen a scenario where that happened before. Like what really happens if rates go up a bit? Houses come down 20% in value and the entire world of people dying to buy one get a stab? Or they just say "NO!" because "recession" and choose not to spend their hoards of cash and fend off the ample liquidity pool in the mortgage system? Do people making $80k a year stop fielding those 20-30% raise offers "just cuz". Do companies who NEED workers now say "no we dont cuz recession" or "cuz rates went to 3%"? I just dont see it. Its actually pretty bullish to me how scared everyone is of a few % point bump on rates. Or if you say 6% treasury people think its Armageddon. In actuality these things dont really signify anything bad. Its actually the opposite. I just wouldnt want to be long SPCE or some crap like that. Unless by recession you just mean a meaningless GDP print or some shit. Which if its that I wouldnt care at all about it.

And then all of a sudden we see why theres virtually nothing decent left under say $400-500k and what was left got "overpaid for" by an iBuyer who flipped it to Blackrock and now....well you can rent that home for $3300 a month! To the rest of the folks, the FNMA limits will get bumped, lenders encouraged to lend more, and probably some sort of stimmies or credit to "ease" the pain.

Ugly? This is going to be beautiful! The Fed WILL NOT tank anything, at least not anything that doesnt deserve to be tanked, they will straddle a line and do the bare minimum to keep things from going haywire. Its in no ones interest to blow up the markets, especially with mid terms in back half of the year. The government long ago decided to inflate their way out of problems. Then they did what they always do. Slow play it all and lie to us. Same at the Fed. Transitory inflation? Then "wading into 2022". Then "higher for longer". Its a classic sales technique when you have bad news for folks. Slowly introduce it to them while telling them theres hope it isnt true. Then once its undeniable and theyre already slowly boiling, go ahead and admit what everyone already knew. If you're long real businesses, real estate, and commodities, its gonna be another triple digit year.

Yea this all has been in the making for a while. Just had to follow the spin on the ball. Now imagine just ignoring all this cuz you didn’t like some guys opinion on vaccines lol?

I dont really like to mess with margin+energy. The options are non recourse leverage and the bigger high quality stuff I think has the best mix of everything including a liquid options market. I can get good duration on the equity options and if Im wrong its not going to hurt too much. Same might apply similarly to the royalty companies although thats not my field of expertise and my objective here is just to catch a big move in the whole complex in the simplest and most efficient manner possible. I am certain somebody like @SharperDingaan, Kuppy or others who know energy inside and out can put on some wicked trades given whats about to unfold. I try to know my limitations.

Wanna get some of the risk premium. Straddle the line between historically reckless and the reasonable. If shit goes parabolic even the awful and poorly run companies will have their day. But IMO the best risk reward is further out the risk curve. Royalty companies are inherently some of the highest quality vehicles and thus won't get the same type of inflection rerating.

I was reading some notes and previous dialogue from years back recently. One thing I found really amusing is that during the many panic periods during 2018 over.....drum rolls.....rates rising a few %......NVR declined from ~$3000 to like low 2000s on these fears. Today its pulled back to mid $5500s. So just a reminder to always sell your stocks on rate fears and that housing has to get slaughtered when the Fed talks about raising rates. Duh.

Absolutely savage shit here. Poach their deal, crush them, buy them. I wonder what the Fanatics guys do for a living…..

I try not to worry about why individual guys think too much on that type of scale. But I do find value in using guys like Miller to flag potentially interesting ideas. Bill has consistently demonstrated a skill most big managers don’t have in terms of catching early stage themes, and especially impressive is the range of diversity in the areas he can invest. But I never found his macros views important or even his position sizing. If someone owns something I just assume it’s cuz they think it’s going to make money. Then I try to figure out the rest for myself.

I think what’s missed is the excellent point made earlier about why it’s gone from 400(or $4) to $40k and why people still can’t seem to see the bigger picture. Which is what Miller himself has said for ages and said again recently in this interview.. What are you risking putting 1% into something interesting? People take their 1%s WAYYYYY too seriously. Some one recently asked me why I was buying call options on gold instead of physical or direct gold. And the answer was simple. Why would I waste a few % on the physical? To make 10% a year if I’m lucky? That translates to a whopping ONE HALF OF ONE PERCENT!!! portfolio gain on a 5% position lol. What’s the point?

Tikr

If part of your thesis is a squeeze then timing is absolutely part of that. So the firm basically saying, what they've already admitted to under oath, that they stopped trading to mitigate poorly framed risk protocols...yea, thats not right.