Gregmal

The idea that something needs to generate cashflow in order to have value is one of there stupidest out there. It just needs to be desirable to others and scarce enough to produce a supply/demand imbalance. This is an $18M watch https://www.businessinsider.com/paul-newman-rolex-daytona-just-sold-17-million-world-record-2017-10 Just because you dont think its worth that doesnt mean its not worth $18M. Same applies everywhere else. The biggest problem people create for themselves when investing(or speculating or trying to make money, whatever the fuck we want to call it) is that they anchor too much to their biases. Dont really have a dog in the race. I own some BTC but I bought it before everyone was having these conversations so the cost to me is negligible and the upside is free.

Just when you think he cant outdo himself... https://seekingalpha.com/news/3766872-biden-reportedly-considering-shutdown-of-enbridges-line-5-oil-pipeline Oh, and to think his regime is using our tax dollars to pay people to research/study whether this would effect gas prices LOL....

Closed out the PTON trade. Got the expected follow through and the options are now basically at the money so time to call it a day.

Personally I’ve found there is something inherently present in the Harvard, Stamford, Penn or CFA and MBA types….maybe it’s a common personality trait or maybe it’s learned….but they underperform not by accident but because they’re all very good at figuring out the best risk adjusted way to maximize the amount of money they can extract for themselves from something. Taking risk presents risk. Why do that when you can caress a steady check and bonus with a built in excuse via mimicking the broader market?

The majority or folks should not be actively investing. Doing it successfully requires an almost debilitating mental focus that borders on obsession and if you’re not prepared to be in that place it’s a total waste of time. If you can do it though, you’d laugh at the notion of being in an etf or index fund.

The business results don’t need to be good or bad. They’re solid enough businesses managed by smart enough operators that the market isn’t going to sway hugely one way or the other on a q to q basis. Buybacks and cash pile will drive this. It is not a coincidence that since the buybacks have ramped the shares have too.

I think we re past the point of needing to analyze Berkshire for purposes other than entertainment value. She s good. And she ll be good. The prospects from here out are exciting.

^The short Ill cover next week. Let it settle over the weekend. Puts I took 4x my basis off and will see how the rest fare over the following month, with a short leash of course since still OTM.

MRNA seems to be getting into value investor territory!(sarcasm) Anyone else eagerly waiting for a thread to be started where our housing expert can enlighten us all on the future of investing? I'm sure there's at least some PTON investors who would find it compelling.

Eh it was a tricky trade though. Even the puts I would roll, they were just very expensive and unless you timed it right it was hard to really make the type of money you'd expect on the options. I still have the Jan $50 puts so we'll see where those open. Net/net outright shorting was basically a wash up until today because it whipped around every time some two bit hedge would try to pump it. But this is why you stalk stocks and just kind of wait for your setups. I thought Q2 was a mess and they were dishonest about a bunch of things but the desperate buyers of this still felt compelled to pay 105-110 the following day and even inexplicably bid this back up to near 120 on an announcement that they were making clothes LOL. The excuses for Q2 and the price cuts were so ridiculous that a Q3 miss(or worse guidance cut) would be devastating. So I felt Q3 would basically be make or break and had three browsers open all with limit orders 85, 80, 75, 72.5 all locked and loaded and at the first sign of movement hit 85/80. Didnt even read the release LOL. Didnt get filled at 85 but got 81. You had maybe 30 seconds to smash 80s. Read the release to confirm and smashed 75/70. This followed Z to an absolute T in term of post release trading. Constant bleed into the 8 pm close. Tomorrow should be fun as well.

Most should allow AH trading. Sometimes you might have to sign additional risk waivers/disclosures but for the most part I think its relatively easy to get permissions for.

shorted some PTON immediately AH at 81 and 74. Having just had a front row seat with Z, I think I can guess what the news digestion is going to look like LOL. EDIT: grabbed a bit of ATUS AH at 18 as well. Both trades looking for the momo to continue for a good bit. Probably into next week.

Small position in HCDI preferred. Pretty interesting situation. Bit of a dumpster dive but getting paid for it and the announcement today showing a belief in the common means I'm a little more positive on the preferred.

Jesus Christ. I'd love it, pretty much to the max, but fuck, how do you claim to be a party of the working class while now stuffing into one of the most scrutinized bills in modern memory, a tax deduction greater than the wages of the average person?

^its funny you mention that cuz I recall seeing and thinking the exact same thing during covid with some retail CRE. Granted, there’s very different individual dynamics and scenarios. But the general gist is people often just sit tight rather than sell, to the extent they can manage to just carry the property. It wasn’t that prices went down; there was no transactions happening. When things are good, people tend to transact and move up quite a bit more. Along with newer market participants joining the fray.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3764295-its-difficult-to-predict-future-of-supply-issues-on-inflation-powell-press-conference We were so certain about the transitory nature of inflation when we rammed all that policy nonsense down your throats. Now? Its hard to predict! LOL What's easy to predict is the incompetence of these guys!

Perhaps. I dont think we're there yet, but you want to look for the signs because sentiment always starts getting priced in well before the event. Going from ESG/Clean energy + covid disruption to drill, baby, drill could be wild. Look at the Obama era clean energy plays like WPRT and CLNE and their historic performance. Both are retail stocks but both give a good pulse on the difference between investing in those spaces during red control vs blue control. Many of the exit polls indicated people were over all the covid nonsense and their biggest concerns where the economy and high gas prices. So that may spark some rethought of the current stance, which is largely the tailwind you want here if long on the super cycle thesis. ESG by itself is cute, but you need several of the catalysts to come together for it to work.

I would say that the VA and NJ gov races potentially indicate a threat to the energy crisis/super cycle thesis. People are wisening up and if certain types of politicians get enough support there will be drilling again. Its an easy problem to solve. The whole oil to $150-200 a barrel thesis is predicated on incompetence and misplaced(or deliberate) policy that promotes the restriction of traditional energy sources along with lots of free money. If that stops the opportunity is much less attractive.

Whats incredible to me is how 1) a company actually reversed course on something that made little sense and actually took responsibility. I cant say the last time Ive seen something like that. 2) How Z, being the market leader, with the best data, basically just admitted how bad of a business ibuying is. There's a lot I would have done differently to try to make ibuying work that frankly I was shocked they didnt do. It was basically just buy, try to flip...thats it. Which in a market where renting is insane and capital is basically free, it was totally underwhelming they didnt try to do more. But wow, a market leader basically coming out and saying this business sucks and we dont want anything to do with it and will risk looking like total idiots just to get out of it? Wow again.

The market is always interesting. You’ve lost ~$4-5B and who knows how much more over the coming days because they disposed of $3B in assets at a $500M loss and exited a business most(maybe I’m wrong about the word most) believed was absolutely crummy to begin with….shrug shoulders LOL

2024 OPEN puts $10 strike. In a way I didnt even appreciate at first, it kind of hedges a lot of different things for me. On top of making sense on a simple level.

While I think bubble stocks could work, Ive started adding value trap old economy type names in terms of puts and shorts. You've got a good list of names to choose from that have basically sucked a giant shlong during the greatest decade of returns we've all seen, and now trade elevated because of the whole covid liquidity injection. If things go south I cant imagine they hold up well, and after continuing to see rotation and enthusiasm back into tech and bubble stuff, I think you also have to appreciate that theres no robinhood's, FANG bros, or late to the party hedge funds buying the crummy old economy laggards. Theyre not hard or expensive to short either. Value investors dont even want them anymore. A few names I'd throw out there would be AAL, IBM, INTC, ORCL, GE....those type of companies.

This should only be a concern if you index or buy index like names. Frankly, I'd love volatility and risk to come back into the markets.

Yea people regularly make idiotic decisions that influence their investing. And ironically enough, it isnt the guy saying the earth is flat or that 80% of the world will die from a vaccine....its the people saying "he said the earth is flat so I dont care what he's investing in even though his record is excellent"....

Kudos SJ. There was discussion about this in another thread, not one relating to FFH but just portfolio management in general. If you are hedging, it is mitigate certain risks and allow other parts of your portfolio to flourish. To this extent, you can continually justify taking losses in certain areas to justify gains in others. But when your "hedges" are total losses and your long exposure is costing you money as well.....something is very wrong.