Gregmal

Pretty sure Hawley supported the well documented, months long insurrection in Portland.

Will be interesting to see if there’s any implications from the volcano within the energy space. Or if Gavin or Letitia decide they need to sue the volcano for contributing to climate change. Once again authorizes are promoting masks. This time it’s just a suggestion though. Only heavy smoke and ash in the air. Wonder who is the dominant strain in the smoke/ash vs COVID turf war. Or do we get a mega variant when they merge? Smogricon variant? #tailrisks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-15/tonga-issues-tsunami-warning-after-undersea-volcano-erupts

You get what you vote for. If you disagree with the policy it’s easy to utilize logic to make money off its insanity. Then you happily pay your heating bill with profits from the whole ordeal. Quite simple. Even good ole copper is crushing it right now. No where are they more deserving of this than the EU. Good riddance.

Yea but it would blow your mind how much people value not getting daily mark to market! Not kidding! Thats what they pay for.

BKEP is a bit of a hybrid. Had a small single digit position from under $2 then after the buyout offer the profile changed dramatically so I upped a good bit. So there's an investment portion of the position and then also an event driven cash sub element to a much bigger part of it. Will adjust accordingly as things evolve.

MSGE low teens AIV high single digits but more options than common so notional is close to double CLPR ~4% after swinging some of that into ALX in 250s. My NYC basket of CLPR, VRE and ALX is low teens total. These # are for informational and entertainment purposes only though. Not advice.

Its roughly around there.

p/s is irrelevant in the grander scheme and especially on an adjusted historical basis because the reality is that e-commerce has different characteristics than brick and mortar. You dont need to think too hard to expect on an adjusted basis that 1950 p/s would be significantly lower than 2015. As e-commerce continues to be relevant in the world(and grow its reach) this should continue and by itself isnt anything to be alarmed by.

I had that thought enter my mind too. I think the childcare credits are potentially bigger than people think. that said I also wouldn’t be shocked if all these stupid boys crying wolf with the COVID hysteria had an impact in December.

Eh its overstated though. Ive got like 80% in the top 10 investments or so. Bunch of trackers and stuff. DIS is mid single digit %,

Like theres been an indisputable trend with well location RE going on for decades. You want to own it and especially if you look at the NYC Jewish Mafia guys....the ones who have just crushed it for decades on buy and never sell strategies.....its obvious. Even the "crashes" are really just washouts. Dont be a forced seller, and you're golden. But even there, there's been what? 2-3 housing hiccups in the last 40 years? LOL You want to try to time the next one, good luck. Me, like with margin, I'd rather spend 2-3 weeks every 10 years worrying about a margin call than 10 years worrying about a 2-3 week per 10 years event.

My view is kind of twofold much like with response to @Dinar question on NYC area RE. Public markets you dont really need the same trends to continue to still make decent money if the discounts are there. Private market, if you're underwriting a 4 cap on a new build with 10% annual growth for a decade, thats probably a dumb bet to make. But we dont really have to and I think it says a lot that many of these types of shops are going the public market route more than they have in the past. Longer term thought, if RE and MF does well(I obviously think it does) Sun Belt should be first in line due to the underlying trends. Weather, politics, taxes, migration, etc. The thesis doesnt need to be too complex. I buy good and appreciating assets at a discount. Can hold them in an efficient manner, and enhanced when opportunistic with options or margin. Barring MAJOR management screw ups, I'll make money. And even there, outside of egregiously share issuance in most cases its damn difficult. Guys overpaying themselves millions per year doesnt really destroy a thesis that the market is turning more appreciative of the asset class and someone will try to take them out in the next 12-18. 95% of the risks here IMO are general market related risks, and these are IMO very high up on the quality/low risk totem pole so they should do better than average under general market turbulence. Ive never been a fan of the "well if the housing market blows up, a housing stock will get killed" thesis. Its a weenie way to say you're making a market timing call and even outside of that, very easy to hedge.

About 60.

Added a little Mickey Mouse at the open.

The way I view multifamily is rather simple, but essentially it's viewed as what it is. Its a diversified income stream with massive flexibility on the asset desirability side which ensures, generally, the reliability of the cash flow. If 2/125 tenants suck its not hard to turn them over. If its a newer building, or even an older one, assuming the construction wasn't faulty, maintaining the asset is again, predictable, and reasonable on the cost side. If the dirt its on top of is in a business friendly and desirable location, there really arent too many things in the ENTIRE WORLD that I would say provide similar risk/reward. This IMO is what the rest of the world is starting to figure out. When it comes to allocating new capital, this is what I see on MF. Another awesome wrinkle is the financing durability. APTS was a great exercise in that. CLPR too. Everyone, including folks like Brad Thomas look and say "too much debt"....but fuck, again, NOT TRUE. Whats real estate debt? Mortgages? Preferred are different and thats a different topic which was discussed elsewhere so Ill leave it, but how any sensible investor looks at a mortgage and goes..."nope too levered"...mortgages are awesome because you dont need things to go right all at once. The property is yours for the term of the mortgage and you have no problems unless you dont make your monthly. Actually, scratch that. You would have to not make multiple monthlies, and then you still have time. Otherwise, its the lowest cost debt, can generally be refinanced, etc. How people look at this the same as a regular operating company who have 2x debt/EBITDA but can have the business impaired materially in a matter of months is so stupid! But its a common part of the traditional thought process. Learn to see things differently. Where I notice people run into problems is when they see this asset, encompassed in a stock, and because of the way finance is structurally taught, people assume all stocks are risky and $100 I put into a stock has the potential to lose $100. This is so not true on any level outside of obviously an academic one. Since my early 20s Ive been doing thousands of stock transactions a year. I have never bought something and had it go to 0 overnight or even in a month or two timeframe. Its EXTREMELY HARD to do, even if you tried. Let alone overnight. Honestly, its hard to even do with options although please understand where thats coming from and dont try it at home unless you know what you're doing. But my point is that people claim to be "investors" and think like value investors, but then get wildly obsessed with these distractions like "collapse", "crash", "correction". Dont get me wrong, if we had a crystal ball and could predict 10-20% corrections, sell, go to cash, rebuy, that works. But in the long game, its a fools distraction. Like when you are at the casino and the super hot chick serving drinks comes over. You know those titties and the gin and tonic are there just to get in your head. Fear of loss is the same thing in the markets. DO NOT, EVER, completely ignore risks or take on risks that threaten your livelihood. But on a different level, when I look at cash, and I look at liquidity, to me its the same except cash has little value other than paying for shit that you can use liquidity for and liquidity at 1-5% annually is worth utilizing. If those hurdles are too high, you shouldn't be investing. But with cash, its like...can I not pay my bills? Do I have a huge, non financeable expense coming up? WTF do I need cash for? Then I look at long term charts and think, would I rather own cash, or have my pick of any number of tremendous businesses? And its easy. If you have no access to liquidity, perhaps its different, but in todays age when Joe Blow can get 4:1 margin at IBKR, or 2:1 for 8% anywhere else.... who doesnt have access if they want it? If you have 20% cash at iBKR, you likely have buying power equal to your entire friggin portfolio! You also have other thought exercises...like go ask your local pharmacy or HVAC owner if they ever wake up and are like "yea, im gonna dump 15% of my business cuz its getting choppy out there"...Or if you own RE, you know why private owners generally do well? Cuz its expensive and burdensome so they sit on their asses and just let it be. Same applies to stocks but the whole system is so reliant on transactions and trade activity that its obvious why we are constantly encouraged to do "something". So for the majority of my shit I try to really think as a business or an asset owner. If you picture the microwave in the kitchen of your new build MF rental in Miami...you're not thinking about, "well what if we get a 10% correction? Better cash up!"....A lot of value investors dont actually behave like investors who are obsessed with the fundamentals. Disclosure, Ive recently trimmed down a lot of my excess holdings and even took off 40% of an extremely overweight BRK position, but Im doing these things to manage my "liquidity", not my cash. I still have margin and still think theres worlds of cash subs out there from ALCO, to PSTH, to ALX, to BKEP type things. Liquidity you need to manage and be prepared for anything with. But cash....

Yea kids have opened my eyes to certain stuff that otherwise I wouldn’t get myself. Nintendo and Roblox come to mind. I don’t get the younger age groups, but shit that’s addictive, educational, and engrained at early ages is probably somewhere a good formula for business opportunities. Or the brands they love early and often. That’s how to grab a long term customer.

Have not heard of Dutch Bros. More good reading to do!

I think the public market stuff is cheap. Private stuff, like physical ownership of an individual property, is probably fairish valued IMO. Suburbs probably erring on the side of overheated a tad but all that changes if the SALT stuff comes back.

Yea that’s the thing people miss or overlook the most when evaluating the potency of the long term Sun Belt RE thesis. It’s your property and you aren’t subjected to any of that shit and that alone is worth a big premium in the cap rate. I’ve grown up a stone throw from NYC and it’s very attractive right now because it’s stinking cheap and irreplaceable. But the answer to why you invest in NY, today, short/mid term is the same as the answer to the question why you don’t want anything to do with it longer term….because it’s NY. These sort of absurd policies are totally unsustainable and create massive headwinds which will at some point come home to roost. and yea, as a small mom and pop landlord, it’s just like OK why even bother? If you’re a big corporation or have a fleet of lawyers you can make it work with scale. But if you’re not, I don’t think I’d even want to mess with that shit at a 10 cap rate. Rather take my chances in the stock market at 30x

Nah theyre all just too busy continuing to try to make a big deal out of covid and investigating why people were protesting on January 6. In a vacuum theyre saving the world by making it harder to drill for oil and compensating everyone with free money. In the real world everything they do backfires. Its both awesome and amusing assuming you are on the right end of things.

Pocahontas now wants to investigate why rents are so high....I swear, the people who voted for these idiots should be taken out to pasture. Its beyond lunacy to the point of hysterical.

Its similar to how I engage with my kids. If they show gratitude and genuine happiness, they get more. The second they become entitled and demanding, nothing.

IDK but I give away money all the time. I often just do nice things for people financially because its 1) easy and 2) effective. However if you tell me I HAVE TO, most like I WONT. My money, my choice. At least thats the way it should be.

IPO was 23m but yea. What spek said basically

I think one thing to keep in mind with restaurant growers, is that a good concept is incredibly valuable and you probably dont want them when theyre "cheap". The mature ones, sure, but thats a different type of investment. The early stage runway stuff I think is very different and a powerful brand can work almost by itself. Wingstop baffled me for years. Wings and tenders, WTF. But cult following, small store base to grow off, and solid execution made it work. If one wants to chase cheap garbage TAST has been luring value investors for years. However I think a more appropriate comp here might be something like SHAK. Especially as blue state migration continues, these awesome city concepts have room to move around and will undoubtedly have fans in much of the country dying for their hometown favorites. With 70 stores or so they say 10% a year but frankly I think if things keep ticking up they can pull forward a lot of growth and surprise to the upside. Not a big position at all, just took a starter today, but I like the idea.