Gregmal

Cathy Wood has some Kool-Aid for you. Stay thirsty my friend!

I mean even the sheer dumbness of “only tracks inflation”….so…. Isn’t that kind of what you’d want to own heading into a period of inflation LOL

Laughing at what? You barely post anything here and then out of the blue come out here making these ridiculous claims, IE wages are pegged to inflation and so are housing prices....changing goalposts and misrepresenting timelines, IE I generally state that during period of whatever in mid 90s folks in good areas bought homes and then at the bottom of a real estate crash sold them for between 100-150% profit and you claim this is a 20 year period and that it barely beat inflation, and then say it beat inflation but not by much(LOLz). Then you post some crap about how you own these piker stocks even though you never really post much here...and then you post your Yahoo stocks! watchlist LOL! Everyone knows when I buy and sell stuff cuz I post it. The APTS thread tells you everything you need to know and otherwise I dont really care what claim you make if theres no transparency or track record. You bought BTC at 1000 sold it at 18000 then rebought it at 3000 and still hold it too, right? I like to be transparent. I dont really care what piker crap you claim you bought or time periods of zero relevant that you post on your sophisticatedly crafted Yahoo Finance charts....I dont generally post this stuff but you're special so I'll treat you special. I only have the below attachment on my phone cuz a whiny investor wanted it a while ago. But Q3 MF REIT kinda crushed it as did energy. So you'll have to bear with me. Hopefully one day I can be like you.

Musta got that Berkshire style inflation!

EDIT: LOL I was actually in the process of responding but then I actually read your post and saw what you invested in, laughed really hard, and then decided to just move on. Cheers.

And FWIW since you know all the data and I clearly dont....would you please, pretty please, let me know how the Florida Housing Index(yes there's such a thing, I am sure you knew that though) did from 1998-2010? vs the other investment alternatives? Surely owning a FL home after those gnarly 35-50% destruction bomb crashes would have been devastating! Oh wait, maybe again you're misleadingly talking about absolute peak top to bottom drop? Ooooh, that helps with the narrative but not really. Anyway, the answer will surprise you(or maybe it won't since you know all the data and I dont)

Predictably again….”well back during the last crash”….durp. Anyway, mid 90s buying and then selling at the bottom of the RE fallout from GFC 15-17 years later at more than a double doesn’t beat inflation? Ok pal. How did the index do from 1995-2010? Inflation! Hint SPY 1000 to SPY 1500….. durp durp. Point me to all the people who’s incomes from 25 on have matched straight line inflation….not talking about career burger flippers either. At 25 I made 228k and at 26 I made 379k… inflation was crazy that year. Durp. anyway, hopefully all you money is where your mouth is. Such conviction in starting to worry me! Otherwise….

So with oil now pushing mid 80s we figure what? another $5 or so before we're told "transitory", another $20 or so before we're told "higher for longer but still gonna come back down" and another $50-75 before voters change things up? Crude calls are hot fire.

If you've ever lived in an area of desirability, you dont even need to bother rebutting something like that, you just know its preposterous. There's areas you want to invest in housing and areas you dont. Tell anyone who's owned Hoboken RE during the past 30-40 years "no better than inflation" LOL. Even in suburbia, buy a home for $400k in the mid 90s, sell it for $800k-$1m in 2010-15 is a story I can have verified by dozens of friends and acquaintances. From what Ive heard prime West Coast stuff is even nuttier. How bout Boca Raton or Ft Myers?

People will always quote ridiculous academic papers as fact. Go to NYC or SF or South Florida even and tell all the totally normal, regular run of the mill real estate millionaires there is no benefit/growth/return above inflation in housing.....real world vs academic always offer varying narratives and often there is truth to both but a high skew towards the real world. And yet, still, the academics will always point to "yea but in '06" or some exception to the rule scenario.

I mean isn’t that a high class problem? If we re talking MAA or CPT type valuation you’ve probably got a double from here at least. Again just look at the in progress rerate happening with BRG from 10.70 on word they’re actually gonna look at shopping the company. the key IMO is you have a big head start and if the growth happens and nothing changes you get 50-70% credit for the massive growth taking place and if the changes already in motion occur then add multiples to those 50-70c dollars.

If the BRG sale happens(NYC based firm, price action bullish..both point to it having legs) that should be a spark for a lot of these. But the simple answer is that any real estate, not pretty, weird capital structure, management question marks, etc....got thrown out during covid and for most of the institutions, put int he "never look at again" bin. Especially the ones that fell sub $500 or $250M market cap. Standard institutional behavior.

Theres so many variables that its pointless to get bogged down on just one or two. As I mentioned previously, with the UBI, er, child tax credit, and current labor shortage, even poor people now can easily afford $1200 a month rent. The prices, as detailed in the APTS thread, current prices, dont even begin to reflect the real market prices and won't til you get a full 12-18 months of rolls. A high end luxury Tampa/Orlando unit two years ago was $1200-1500. You'll never see rents at those levels again for a tier 1 city/suburb. If you're an institution underwriting 10% annual rent increases for 5-10 years you're a moron. But I ve never really found the institutions all that smart or worth listening to anyway. But voila, today and for the past 15+ months, you can go into the market and buy companies that own these sorts of prime assets, for 50/60/70% of their private market value.

I’m pretty sure @ERICOPOLY already posted something on it, but anyone care to bring up what average rents were in 1974 vs 1982? Building more just helps alleviate the fact that right now plenty of people can’t get ANYTHING. Even those who really want it and CAN afford it. Why are JOE homes going ballistic in terms of price? I though it was all just barren swamp out there(guess what, it kind of is! And it still don’t matter) and that the second someone wanted to live there builders would flood the market? Nope. The anti housing people are starting to sound like the people that wanted to fight the fed in 2013. As always, the scoreboard will ultimately settle who’s right over the next 1/3/5.

Yea shares have been strange lately. Definitely feel like theres a seller putting a lid on them here. Was picking up 3000-5000 share lots the other week and whereas normally you'd clear out the current bid/ask, was getting a lot of iceberg asks. Speculatively, if someone wants to unload in size on a semi illiquid name, I'll step out and let them drive down the price and then hit the options as they come in. Its always fascinated me here how with CLPR you can watch 10,000-20,000 total shares trade slowly over an entire session, but for modest premiums you can pick up the same sized(or much larger) positions via the options in one quick swoop. Gonna be interesting as we get closer to March to see if anything comes about when its clear those shares have to be delivered. I've got most of the outstanding 5s and well, some dudes I know....own a lot of the 7.5s

1.39-1.42

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/19/single-family-rents-are-surging-and-investors-are-flooding-the-market.html Another day, another piece. Its almost insane to think about making a claim about oversupply and/or lack of demand. But the most important element lays in the last paragraph. First time home buying still aint getting to the table. The bigger the piece of the market the institutional capital owns, the more pricing power they have(plenty of first hand experience and stories on that....25 year olds scoffing at rent raises in Tampa, telling their landlords to fuck off, and then......getting nothing anywhere else). Rents going up supports higher home prices. Higher home prices support higher rent prices....what a great and virtuous cycle!

Man, its almost like that "front run the institutions" investment thesis was too simple/obvious? Aint no VIC membership worthy valuation short/cigar butt turdball book report.... thats for sure!

also grabbed another 300 CLPR March 7.5 calls

Been picking at SPCE Jan 2023 $10 puts

The thing I dont see a lot of folks processing is that we're on the precipice of a major shift, if it has not already occurred. Cash is worthless and bonds are done with the decades long bull run. Hard assets are now in line for a run on par with what we saw out of tech the past decade. How do we know? Because just like with tech, we see the crowds screaming bubble after ONE year! You need folks in denial for the markets to really get going... And then again in 2012. And oh so most definitely after 2013...that had to be the top. Home prices rising 20% year over year after largely nil for a 5-10 year stretch doesnt mean jack. By process of elimination cash and bonds will be phased out by sensible investors. Leaving equities and hard assets. Equities have enjoyed the run, hard assets, not so much. The last crutch to destroy is the notion that a 3-5% mortgage will kill housing. By the time thats done being destroyed as a narrative you'll probably want to be selling your housing stocks to the folks who after thinking that for a decade now want to buy....but we're a long ways from that. As Ive said a million times, why wouldnt our housing market follow some similar trajectory to Canada, especially now that the underwriting process isnt Wild West style like in 2000-2006.

How much of the supply has been vacuumed up by institutions like BX, Blackrock, REITs, etc since 2010? People still want to own homes and there is a record shortage of them available. Buffett also said we were in for a Great Depression in 2020….. The institutionalization of housing in many ways is very similar to the BTC bull thesis in that the capital available will inevitably dwarf the product available. Plenty of people gave us great technical sounding, academic arguments on BTC at 10k, 20k, 30k….and Buffett also had an opinion. Sometimes things are just simple. Home prices and rental prices are going to play a game of who can rip hardest and in part bootstrap each other higher one level at a time. The biggest component everyone misses is just how much demand is currently sidelined. It’s silly to just assume everyone who’s looking has bought and there’s going to be this precipitous fall down.

Succession 3 episode 1 was good. I was also incredibly surprised with how good Billions finale was. I have generally found Billions stale and cliche as well, but season 5 ending was incredibly savage. Quite sad what happened to Lewis in real life.

Kids were watching V for Vendetta again. Just something about the story line that resonates. Governments using a virus as an excuse to steal freedoms from their people and ultimately trap them within the system. Good storyline!