Gregmal

Exactly. I feel like there’s no more victim of the typical value investor bs than FFH shareholders and even FFH itself. As a general rule of thumb, Mr Market is generally right. He can be wrong at times. But typically there’s reasons. With FFH they continually sit there are arrogantly claim everyone else is wrong and they’re right. Wake up, do a couple easy things, and see what happens. Not that hard. The question is whether Mr Watsa is just that arrogant, doesn’t care, or simply won’t do it for other reasons. My money has been on the later two. So far it’s been correct

I just headed out fishing for the night so the response is simple, but here goes…. do you not believe something needs to change for FFH to get appreciated by the market? IE a corporate action or repositioning? Or do you believe that nothing needs to change and that they’re right and everyone else in the market is wrong? Further off that; would the following help? -NYSE listing -A real buyback -Monetizing big pieces of the equity portfolio if so, why aren’t they doing this?

I agree its a wrench but investing is about deciphering this type of stuff. You should have seen the type and style of investment I employed in 2012-2014...And after a while you get tired of making excusing or saying "valuations are nuts"...maybe they are, maybe they arent, but the only certainty is that 1) what you are doing isnt working and 2) you are likely wrong. Theres always a risk adjusted approach to investing. Its something thats taken me time to learn and appreciate but in no way should a guy who's been doing this professionally for half a century be oblivious to this. One look at long term charts tells you its ideal to maybe be a bit of a perm bull...or at least not be massively net short...you seem to have a bit of a bearish outlook(my inference from your post)...so....is it at all ironic that now Prem is vowing not to be bearish anymore, perhaps right when you'd want to be? I dont have a problem with people being wrong...its part of the game and how you learn and even at 60/70/80 with investing, you never stop learning. But Prem for lack of a better term just seems clueless and/or chasing his tail and refusing to learn with the US investments. Didnt(as Eric also mentioned) he vow to only buy quality companies a while ago and then sold them a short while later and got back into junk? I typically have a rule of thumb that if something isnt working after 3 years its probably best to reevaluate and figure out why and if you cant then you're best to move on. So again in that context, Blackberry...what was his thesis at $40 or whenever he started buying? Or RFP at $20....what was he like "yo, in 8 years theres gonna be a pandemic that busts the supply chain?"....some of these are inexcusable and the problem is theres a super high correlation/thread amongst most of his public investments....problem companies and secular decliners. I dont buy at all the renewed BS about how "RFP pivoted perfectly" and "BB is dominant in auto"....those things have been known for a while so its silly to get hyped about them now just cuz the stocks have moved(which psychologically always seems to be more believable when price action validates it, although its not one and the same. Stocks go up/people buy into the bull case and vice versa). My issue is Prem just doesnt seem to have consistent or logical framework based on the aggregate of everything experienced over the past decade. Unlike some others, no, I dont think crapcos catching a bid means he's turned the corner....not at all. If someone was in GME for 5 years from $50+ and got lucky, I still wouldn't say that although I'd have respect if they flipped it on the spike. However imagine someone being long GME and at various points down MASSIVELY from some of their purchase points, and then getting a total gift(if you've been an UBER BEAR from the past DECADE! how do you not blow out of these positions on such a short term move?!?!)..and just sitting tight and making excuses for continuing to hold? So as SJ kind of mentioned, its still the thought process. I dont think we can say thats changed until he AT THE VERY LEAST, liquidates something. As we all know, unless you're willing to monetize, your discount to NAV in the public markets doesnt mean shit and can persist in perpetuity. However(as is on display currently as I clean house in the REITs), the second you put things in play or start ringing the register that discount to NAV can disappear quick....when TF is he going to start ringing the register?

Couple things.... 1) When every day is a new day, the "you're talking about the past...." rhetoric gets old. The past matters. 2) All the vague "they've turned the corner" stuff...yet they still arent exactly transparent to a degree that would actually confirm it is true. @ERICOPOLY had a good point in a separate thread about how Prem has basically refused to disclose certain stuff, or even just answer basic questions about the short book. 3) For an entire DECADE, we had the greatest bull run probably ever. EVERYBODY made tons of money, except for a couple people who inexplicably seemed to strike out on almost everything they touched, consistently. It was breathtaking how they managed to consistently pick disasters when you could throw darts at a board and make gobs of money. FINALLY, in 2021, even the absolute poo poo, like GME and AMC even went bananas...but now folks are all enamored with, and impressed with the equity portfolio? LOLOL WTF? The dog finally has its day on paper, and people are pleased...what an incredibly low bar. The majority of these companies are still crap, no different than GME is still garbage despite it run and so is AMC. Take your gift, sell, and move on. Still refuses to do so. He still "knows better" on things he's been repeatedly wrong about. Just as he's waiting for the "right price" on BB. As Ive said a million times, 1) why get into in the first place? 2) why stay in if you cant even capitalize on insanity like a $20 print. 3) Its at $10, where it was when he started this project, best case he gets what? What it trades for earlier in the year? Move on already. 4) There is still nothing concrete that really emphasizes ANYTHING has been learned. What, he finally agreed shorting in a raging bull market is a bad idea??? Oh thank god! How blessed we are. But whatever. To each their own. Covid presented the greatest gift an investor ever could have asked for and this even there has been a total dog. But the bar is low and we're pleased with a measly 30% and his crapco's have increased in price so all is well I guess..... I mean asking for a real buyback is too much, asking him to liquidate losers is too much, asking for a real NYSE listing is too much...the guy is still scared of short seller boogey men or whatever and that comes at the expense of a better valuation for shareholders....I mean he's one of the only guys I follow who can basically do no wrong to some, despite more or less refusing to do some very, very EASY things to reward all the loyalists.

Why was that his or FFH shareholders problem? BB was a disaster...NOBODY wanted it, including many outfits who actually knew tech. Prem and FFH have NO credibility in tech..insurance, sure, commodity(poor results aside) maybe, you get my drift. Tech? WTF and rather than cut bait, which is one of the benefits of public market investing, he decided to waste what? 7-8 years on this project? At best throwing good money after bad trying to bail out a losing investment and at worst as a project that had motivations outside of his fiduciary responsibilities.

Come on man. Saying Prem has other priorities that come before maximizing shareholder value isn’t impugning anything. He s fully earned that through his actions and lack of interest in correcting mistakes. Even when every Joe Schmoe is begging him, “sell the past mistakes in a gift of a market”…he still won’t. And while we can say “maybe he knows better”… he doesn’t. Virtually every public market investor I know outside of John Paulson and David einhorn have better records than Prem Watsa over the past decade. Basically everyone has known better than Prem and rather than humbly admit that he keeps going.

LOL then why are we still here? There was NO reason to get involved in Blackberry outside of glory. Being a hero to a Canadian icon and getting credit for being the guy spearheading "the turnaround"....they shopped the entire company, and NO ONE wanted it, even thought BB at the time had like half the MC in cash! Thats why this dude ultimately ended up reneging on his fake buyout bid. Meanwhile, nearly a decade later, its still NOWHERE...every one of even the blind loyalists screams SELL BB.....and yet...... yes totally hollow. Perhaps you guys who have been muddling in this loser have the correct read.... not me. The only logical reason he's in BB is because status/ego, IE nothing that benefits shareholders.

No way he leaves the Board. These sort of status positions are what its all about for him at this stage of the game.

flipped some JBGS into AIV leaps

In my universe where you already have what you need to live life on your own terms everything else is just having fun!

Yea but it’s 5% and it’s call options, bruh! I’m with you though(just not on BABA, I don’t have a high level opinion there). A lot of times options are a better risk management strategy than stock. And 5% is not a big deal.

It’s possible for some here for sure. Personally I don’t really rely on the dorkazoid metrics for this. PE blah. I’m just going off price action which is more technical and easily verified. Taboo to the fundamental guys, but for sure, a lot of stuff is having trouble catching and holding a bid. Whether it means much, idk. But it should get ones ears to perk up.

LOL Meanwhile, a good percentage of folks are scared to go 5% on a single, non controversial STOCK! Not to mention the numerous financial literature and textbooks that tell you 5% is too risky. Just shows how the system is designed to keep people poor and reliant on financial services.

The confidence termites thesis is playing out almost exactly how you'd expect it to. I'm aggressively positioned quite conservatively, but if I wasnt, I'd be taking some BIG swings on the short side here. For now, I have sub 5% tech exposure not counting GOOG/MSFT...wouldnt want much more than that til things shake out.

^Haha Im not going in hard yet cuz Ive found when a new set pops up it takes a short while for the spreads and market for them to firm up. But these are absolutely, exactly what I want. Wish APTS had these. 2024 is the year the board de-staggers as well. Basically, by then the company will be up for grabs and free and clear to the highest bidder if shit does play out properly. Current NAV is likely mid teens.

Oh hello there AIV 23 and 24 leaps. I feel like we're gonna have some fun together soon.

Theres always exceptions but generally as a rule of thumb, forcing a company to evaluate strategic alternatives after a decade of misery would likely do way more good than harm. If you're public and just not making money for shareholders, your reasons for existing in the public form likely dont serve anyone but yourself. If nothing else it would throw cold water on(or confirm) a lot of the "well one day Mr. Market will see the value!" rhetoric. Because at least then you'd get an appraisal of the value. One can only imagine if they had done that with something like Sears. Instead a good many value investors went out in body bags. Cuz....eventually....

People have been clamoring about how cheap BABA is for $100 a share now. BABA as an investment has nothing to do with the company's PE at this point in time.

Actually, better example; DTLA. Theres certainly situations which gravity gets suspended.

I actually do think that there should be some rule that if the 1/3/5/10 performance looks like, eh, FFH's for example, that they should be forced to. Would definitely save folks a lot of grief with the perpetual c-suite cash grabs at companies like GE or GM(legacy GM). And the closed end funds...absolutely. If they arent making money what good are they?

You wanna team up and tender $35 for 40% of BUHF then? They own Poconos real estate, some golf and recreational/outdoors family assets. Easily worth $75 per share, has been for pretty much the company's existence. Mr. Market will eventually get it right, yea? Gravity?

For the record, I dont at all think Prem is out the "screw" shareholders. Its just very clear to me that he has very different priorities at this point in his life and maximizing shareholder value certainly isnt high up on the list. He knows the company isnt going away(IE facing any sort of existential threat) so at this point its really just about status, ego, kingdom building, nepotism, etc. It would almost even be easier as a catalyst if he was purely a greed mongering money whore trying to screw shareholders with tender offers, take unders, and purposely poor disclosure. Shits good from Prem at this stage in the game, what in the world compels him to change anything? Snarky analysts and grumpy small fry shareholders? I dont think so.

So I'll throw this out there. If Prem and Co are really serious about doing right by shareholders, why not do a strategic review and put everything up for sale? That would 100% create the best return for shareholders. The answer to the question is almost certainly also the answer to the question of "why does this trade like junk?".

Thats correct. There's different reasons for lots of things; investing is not static(yes tell that to the old school Watsa type value investors!) you have to be fluid and two situations that on paper look the same can in reality be very different. But over a 1/3/5 year period if you're not making money, you're wrong. Plain and simple. If your money comes from trading, thats not a good investment. Its a trading sardine. It literally been the same story with FFH since the day I joined this board. And all folks have to show for it is "if you bought the covid dip you got an outsized short term return" which even there, if you look into "outsized" is at best debatable and more likely probably wrong. The things I keep hearing about as the reasons for this rerating just arent gonna do it. You really dont think the market knows we're in an insurance hard market???? Or that FFH has Digit? Sure at times the market misses stuff, but this is just plain info thats out there. Its not hidden, there hasn't been an inflection. All that matters is that the same issues warrant a discount and in general, Mr. Market and its participants arent just going to roll over and say "hey, thanks for the reassurance Prem, here's 1.3x book!". Someone who's previously being a bad actor doesnt just all of a sudden get the benefit of the doubt because he said he'll change. Until those things are addressed, the poor multiple will persist, and none of the stuff people point to really matters all that much until then unless you're cool only getting 70c on every dollar going forward. Another way to look at this, is that Berkshire trades at a discount to its intrinsic value. So with that in mind, why do folks think FFH is worth anything close to that? I agree catalyst based investing should be complimented with other stuff. But thats what the Berkshires, Costcos, Waste Managements, and Mastercards are for. Honestly, thats probably what an index is for LOL. The only reason I can think of even considering touching this is for the catalyst driven momentum/rerate trade. Otherwise there's just nothing special about it. Sketchy financial companies trading at discounts are a dime a dozen.

Again, come on man. The length you guys are going to rationalize this garbage is crazy. CLF 1 yr 193% 3 yr 58% 5 yr 252% FFH 1 yr 33% 3 yr -4% 5 yr -28% See the difference? Management change at CLF made the difference. Why not give it a try here? And yes, if you are content with 30% TTM given the opportunity set presented by covid, thats on you. IMO its pretty poor. You could've even just bought plain vanilla BAC or JPM and done more than double that. But whatever. I'll come back in a (insert timeline) and people will still be talking about "any day now, Mr Market will wake up"...