Gregmal

The biggest winner here will be China. Not really a question about that, IMO. Ukraine and Russia are clear losers. EU/US get….not much. Maybe more fuel for getting the good guys in come November but otherwise their victories will be these “media messages” or whatever that means. China plays peacemaker, buys cheap and valuable Russian assets, utilizes the barter chip with US/EU to gain other concessions. Don’t know if there’s an investing play off that….PTR maybe is on the radar but like the folks who just got shellacked buying Russian assets on the exchanges, I’m not sure I see a direct enough correlation to the available Chinese vehicles to make that wager. Fundamentals can be a clear buy but if the political landscape is mucky it’s irrelevant. Which I think applies 100% to Russian stuff(duh right? Lol) but also to a degree with the Chinese stuff that I can’t assess to a high enough degree of confidence.

This is basically my read. He ll get what he wants, but the price was significantly more expensive than he ever anticipated and obviously this is one of those things where once you start there’s no turning back. He basically backed into a corner and we are starting to see the angle develop where “everyone has their media win”. Wabuffo probably hits the timeline accurately, if I had to guess. Of course, like everyone else, I reserve my right to be wrong…a right I just choose not to exercise as often as everyone else! As for the rest, especially the CNN type narratives about rebuilding the USSR and all that hysteria, I’d be short the shit out of it just like all the other nonsense like COVID, polling numbers, Trump-Russia, etc. Thats been the money trade for a while now. Surprised there’s still people falling for it but again, folks believe what they want to and it can cloud their judgment. Makes investing easier for the rest of us.

Yea but what’s the guy in Russia, who works construction, sitting in his living room drinking vodka seeing on TV? That’s what would be interesting from the perspective of studying narrative shaping and propaganda. the stuff that “leaks” through is often leaked through for a reason. Basically to the points @changegonnacome made. Same way you have these toolbag news editors screaming at the underlings “go find me an unvaccinated 6 year old in a red state who’s in the hospital with COVID”. World is big enough to find whatever youre looking for and with enough publishing power you can create all kinds of illusion. What is the illusion being presented to the pro Russia Joe Schmoe? It’s not the one we are told it is here, that’s for sure. They’re people, just like us. What influences them?

^excellent points. I would actually be really interested in seeing what the Russian media is doing and how they are framing all this. If nothing else, we all know how the garbage gets rearranged here, but it would be fascinating to see the other side of things. Wars, more than most other events, while ongoing, are really, really easy to shape. There’s always photos or people who you can go to in order to shape whatever narrative it is you’re looking to shape.

I guess it’s just perspective then. If I was in Ukraine, sitting around thinking and feeling isn’t going to do shit but make me mad and sad. Now what? Wait 10-15 years for a coin flip outcome and best case rebuild? No thanks. Lousy luck of the draw but the only real viable plan is move and start over. All these fake western helpers? Wanna really do something? Hold those funds. Allow these people fleeing in with open arms and then utilize those funds to give them a start. But that’s too practical. We rather virtue signal and send them the resources needed to die of a thousand paper cuts.

Yup. 100%. Which is why two bottles of good Russian vodka wasn’t enough. 28 might not be either. But the store didn’t have anymore. Anyone know where to get Cuban cigars? These things don’t go away. Ever really.

The more questions you try to answer the more you increase your odds of being wrong. The bigger the questions, the more you’ll inevitably miss. So for me I just try to look at all that stuff, probably a bit more, find a few areas where you can handicap things a little more precisely, and then hang out in those spaces. For instance each NYSE stock can be bought or sold. Each typically has sets of options that can be bought or sold. Even within the options, there’s dozens of different strikes and prices on said strikes. So for each individual name there’s maybe hundreds of different approaches you can take to making a buck. Now think there’s thousands of names. And thousands of offsets such as commodities or bonds or whatever. All you gotta do is find a few that work for you and you can do well. The traditional approach of “is XYZ a good investment” is so overrated. Or, “what is the market going to do”.. choppy markets are great because of volatility. If you know how to monetize volatility it’s even better. So I in short, think but don’t overthink. The great thing we’ve been seeing over the last year or so is the decoupling of assets to market correlation. ARKK vs SPY vs BRK TTM is a great highlight of this.

Not at all. But sadly, the honest truth is that Ukraine is a lost cause. They can “win” the war, if by win we mean get Russia to retreat and rebuild their pile of rubble. But in my book that’s not a win. It’s done and nothing that can be done will bring back the buildings and places, not to mention all the loved ones lost in this. So sitting around here virtue signaling about help is laughable. You know how we really help? Next time don’t start meddling in other countries business! Don’t vote for politicians who have been playing the same game for decades! Do things differently than they’ve previously been done because otherwise NOTHING will change. Meanwhile many suggest the solution is giving these SAME people who got us here, more money, more power! What a joke!

Exactly. 100%. The narrative a lot of people are swallowing is that “completely out of nowhere, with zero warning or provocation, Russia went in and massacred Ukraine”. Notice how all these “problems”, over and over again, involve the SAME solution! More and bigger global government. More reliance from people on government resources. More taxes and commandeering of private property. If you don’t see that you’re being played. And what’s worse is how they use these tragic situations to further manipulate. As Viking eluded to earlier….we MUST be Putin sympathizers if we don’t see it their way. They came for republicans and libertarians and now they’re even steamrolling moderate liberals like Manchin.

The only thing non investment related people need to realize is that all the hobnobbing government people play games. They do self serving shit and the costs are always bore by the people. It’s tragic for both the people of Ukraine and Russia as well as the folks from there living all over the world. I mean imagine being an anti Putin Russian living IN RUSSIA? Now you get fucked economically because western government needs an excuse for the inflation problem they created through their bungling of COVID. So you’ve suffered for all these years because you’ve opposed a totalitarian regime and now that regime does something you oppose and you get walloped by the virtue signalers in the ivory towers! Kind of like being a Republican in a blue state in the US right now. Тhats why to a certain degree, hostilities towards the people who through their own need to virtue signal, vote for or financially endorse this crap….can sometimes be justified. My friends father in law a good example. Retired NYC school principal. Moves to Florida two years ago and now complains about policies he doesn’t understand because the media tells him to get mad at De Santis. Like the kids wearing masks thing. Oh my god he was a taking piece. And my friend simply tells him, nothing forced you to move from NY. YOU chose to move because you liked this better. So don’t come here with all YOUR crap; the ideologies that turned where you came from into what it is, and now start trying to spread the same toxic shit here. If you find it so bad you don’t have to be here but don’t ruin what’s great for no reason but your own selfish BS. You make a fortune off your pension but at the same time abhor NYC taxes? Hypocrite.

The replacement works in a vacuum because you drop the gas cost big time. But to get the EV you need to buy the vehicle and thats the problem. So yes, when my 155k mile IS goes, I'll probably look to an EV. But a Lexus will run forever(knock on wood) and a new transmission or whatever big ticket item is may run $5-8k. So I plan on getting at least another 5 years out of it. I have no cost outside of maintenance and gas right now. With a new car you're looking at parting with a lump sum or having a monthly payment.

The gas car argument is massively overrated for EVs. Theres probably logical reason for alternative energy somewhere, but its mostly a mind game. As I mentioned earlier, Ive got a 550 gallon double tank for heating oil. Going from $2 to $5 a gallon moves the needle. But for a standard car, if you use 15 gallons a week(assume 20 mpg thats 300 miles a week which is high) the difference between $2 gas and $5 gas is $45 a week. $10 gas is $90 a week. Big whoop.

Even after the LAACZ score? Lol

More hedging. Plus with inflation it’s better than holding cash.

Florida freeze being a nothing burger is the only recent development. Oh yea, and you’re gonna see some land sales soon.

The truth about what’s happening is somewhere in between what is being reported here and basically what is a 180 of that. Folks are just used to swallowing hooks, lines and sinkers so they don’t know any better. When I wanted to get to the bottom of the sunbelt story I chose to go see it myself rather than rely on analysts in NY. Same concept in a theoretical sense. Or…. You can fall for the propaganda like you did with everything from Russiagate to Omicron being a “game changer”. To each their own.

EBAY and PCYO adds

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3812242-meat-13-gasoline-38-lifts-all-items-cpi-to-79-year-on-year Interesting. Still, despite everything the eye can see, theyre saying its 7.9%. And some people believe them. Because Psaki said it and its also Putins fault and called on 3 friendly reporters. Run Forest, run!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3811982-london-metal-exchange-rushes-to-contain-fallout-of-nickel-trading-crisis this is pretty interesting. Seems every other year some fund blows up shorting some commodity or currency that gets whacky. Remember the video apology from the dude who lost every penny of client money on nat gas shorts gone bad? anyhow, the less mainstream some of these are, the greater the risk you get some swan event that blows a hole in the financial system or causes some sort of contagion. It’s why IMO banks or insurers right now are a little yucky. If GME can do it so can copper or some shit.

Eh you don’t have to be kind/PC about it. Most of them probably don’t lol. You can always tell who’s parents were bankers, accountants, lawyers, IE white collar by how much trade/shop/blue collar skills their kids have. At least as a general rule of thumb, I can backtest this against most of the people I’ve met in my life and every now and again there’s an exception but it generally holds true. Unfortunately my kids probably won’t know how to change the brakes on their cars. Who TF is gonna teach em lol?

Fair enough. The ones complaining are probably just mad they didnt just crush this commodity rally because they were blinded by their political views. But point taken.

What is out of line? Viking did say he took profit today and thats the basis of where that came from. I dont know how thats out of line? It wasn't discussed privately, HE asked me to ask Viking that question. Either way Im kinda over this. Everyone always claims to be an independent and free thinker but when you always come to the same conclusions on the same things, and those things happen to mirror the prevailing opinions of the MSM...IDK. I'm sure if we put up a poll of members and let people vote on who is an independent and critical thinker the results would tell the truth. When all else fails we just call someone a Russian agent or Putin supporter because thats the textbook. EU and US didnt inherit inflation and high energy from Putin...they have themselves to thank for that but now have a convenient excuse. And no one has really supported Ukraine, just ask Zalensky....

Manchin is probably only one of a half dozen or so(at best) people in congress that you can trust to act in the interest of the country.

Easy. Same reason as the US. Cuz the politicians are bungling things. Between the COVID response in Europe and the inflation problem in the states. And the politicians need someone to blame. if you’re going to support Ukraine, support them! Instead we freak out when Poland offers real help and boast about how our sanctions are harming innocent Russian people because “eventually” it’ll come back to bite Putin even though we have more than enough evidence spanning decades that fucking the innocent citizens doesn’t do jack to a dictator himself. See? Shitty and rationally void arguments aren’t hard to spot, often because they make no sense. i mean it sounds like you just parroted Jen Psaki here. You realize Europe was fucked and energy prices were soaring WELL BEFORE all this? You didn’t just swallow another narrative did you?

Interesting. Again. This seems so….consistent in all your stuff, and so inspired by…..can’t put my finger on it. MSM inspired? and of course, if I do what we all “say” we aspire to do, “think for ourselves”, I must think Putin is a “swell guy”. No other in between I guess. He can’t possibly be an old school dictator who’s rationally telling foreign meddlers to get the fuck out of his backyard. Nope. Gotta be something else. Let me search around CNN or Wapo for a bit and I’ll get back to you on what that something else is. cheers