Gregmal

My father has been yelping about how the Fed is taxing savers since like 2012. It’s true. But. In regard to unstoppable brand and businesses…doesnt it kind of make sense? Look at Berkshire or more aptly I think is Simon Property. Let alone Costco and WM. These guys are best in class assets/businesses…sure. But they can borrow, globally, like anywhere, at rates significantly below inflation or whatever. Berkshire has been tapping Japanese debt markets if I’m remembering correctly. So think about it. You have businesses that are inflation+. And on top of that carry investment grade credit rating. And on top of that can borrow wherever in the world savers are most desperate. When you look into it, 30x for certain companies is not what it seems. There’s flexibility and dynamic/opportunity embedded in that valuation.

That’s what I mean. Owning a home kills like 4-5 birds with one stone. Ok it doesn’t go up, well you’re still putting a big % of your would be rent into a de facto savings account. The Canadian mortgage stuff is foreign to me. But I have no clue how every American doesn’t own as much house with a 30 year fixed mortgage as possible. Even at 5-6%. Stuff goes up, you’re good. Rates go down refi. I probably wouldn’t be deterred until we hit low teens in terms of taking out a fixed rate mortgage.

Is there a point in time when “bubble” and “speculative excess” wasn’t widely attributed to, or code word for, normal people getting wealthy? Basically a red alert for the wealthy and establishment folks that they need to knock the lesser beings down a notch?

Given the relatively recent development/advances in regards to brokerage firms and liquidity levers, I don’t see any reason why anyone under the age of 65 can’t invest in a sub 10% position with a 20 year horizon. If you need your last sub 10% before then…you ain’t ready to retire.

These businesses can do whatever that want and have limited to no real competition. Every comp I’ve seen to COST is a misguided false assumption of retail hierarchy. WM is in a league of its own. So while the rich bankers and politicians itch in their skin about normal people making money in stocks, housing, crypto, ooops I mean, “speculative excess”, and look to set fire to the prosperity of those who don’t have divine right to their wealth, I think it’s become obvious that bonds and cash are not where a sensible person wants to be, so then at that point you have to ask “where?”. And I keep coming back to integral and irreplaceable assets. Convince me otherwise that dollar cost averaging through indestructible and unique assets/businesses doesn’t work over a 20-30 year horizon.

I’m not disagreeing that they’re optically expensive. But personally I don’t know why any bond in the history of earth has had less than a 10-15% coupon. I couldn’t fathom buying one below that. Even government guaranteed stuff; 5%? Unless I can borrow below that and arb it risk free then why would I waste my time? I’ve thought similar about office REITs. 5 cap? Huh? For secular decliners? Not attractive at all. But people, lots of em, pay that price. So while I’ve always been uncomfortable going out there and buying stuff like COST and WM, V at times too….if you can make the case for other asset classes then why can’t you make the case for the best companies in the world? Especially one as dynamic as COST or WM? Id rather own those at 30-40x than a bond with 2+ years duration at 5%. At least with the equity you own something. Bonds are just a claim to a fixed check and the assumption that you get your principle back. If not you have to become an active business owner….yawn.

If funny to think that everything the Fed is doing is basically to spite the poor and middle class. Whelp, can't have EVERYONE living so well. Hmmm, lets try to price the marginal homebuyer out of the market. Hmm, lets give banks an excuse to raise their rates. 25% on credit cards wasn't enough. Overpaying for cars isnt bad enough, lets boost the car loan rate. The real problem is still the politicians. Focus on fixing the supply chain. Instead, Murphy in NJ just banned using bags at retail and grocery stores! Nice complement to the straw ban. Why not every state and fed agency taking their pound of flesh via energy taxes drop those? Nope. 10% of my cell phone bill is taxes and surcharges. But at the federal level theyre more concerned with Ukraine posturing and keeping Elon from letting Trump have a Twitter account than solving problems for American citizens. Its not hard to see why the lower and middle classes think the system is rigged.

No what I meant was that if past analysis, which almost always was basically some iteration of “too expensive” has been repeatedly wrong, what makes one confident that this time their take, the same take that has been wrong, is now right.

Just posing a theoretical question in regard to the FANGs or stuff like WM/KO/COST. If you dont own them, and have missed the majority of their runs, what credibility does the analysis have? Is there a reason to believe this time is different than the conclusion derived from the past however longs data points that led to the decision to not be invested in those names?

there go the Qs

Waste Management is the new FANG LOL

Rolled a portion of these down to the $300 strike and out to June. Net reduction in cash attached to the position.

That’s what they should be called. Without too much detail, in high school I knew a guy who’d bundle MDMA and a little blue pill. It was distinctive to say the least. Like being Bonds/McGwire/Sosa in home run derby. Whole generation of girls who’s sexual bar was set wayyyyy toooo high way too early. Feel bad for their eventual husbands.

Also, they appear to be for swimsuits. But anyway, I doubt Alibaba sells whatever it is you assume is associated with that sort of lifestyle.

LOL nice try. Those ads along with the ones for watches have been showing up for months. They didn’t start last week…not to mention, they are from Alibaba. So yea.

Yup. I was and I wasn't. It looked for a minute like the big sellers had been alleviated when we got back over $12. You could see the stock trading normal again. Friday too had a bid all day near $12. Today there was as much stock as one wanted at the ask all day long. From talking to a few folks its really just exhaustion from Harding's paint dry strategy right now. Its a little concerning to me that with all the stuff happening over the next two years, they dont have the confidence to at least even authorize a buyback. But whatever. Ive got all day so it works for me.

I actually just noticed the skimpy ad above is a BABA ad. Not an expert on how tech works, but probably not a coincidence given the popularity of that thread.

More PCYO

Some interesting and obvious takeaways from all this I’d say.

Ads do get a bit weird sometimes. Although I did get snagged with one for an at home hockey rink. $40,000 later…..

Also PCOR starter

Msgs

Woah! So when NY and CA do this shit its prudent until FL shows its nonsense. Now China is crazy for it? Fuck me!

Finished Wecrashed on Apple TV. Overall it exceeded my expectations. Almost died laughing at some parts of the last episode. Not sure how true to reality it is, but man, the arrogance in that scene when he s talking about firing the whole board and then replacing them. Neumann: “How about Elon?” Wife: ”honey Elon wouldn’t work. Besides, he’s a peer. You wouldn’t learn anything from him” Neumann: “how about, Obama?”

Basically wondering how folks think about this. For myself, I am not sure I’d consider it worth it, to avoid a temporary housing correction of 10-20% considering: -transaction costs -primary/secondary homes have utilization value to a person -I really, really like having that 30 year fixed debt at 3-4%. -what do I do with the proceeds after it’s sold? -there’s no assurances prices are going to even decline that much, or at all. Maybe with a portion of my investment properties I would consider selling, but even there it’s still not clear to me that it’s worth it. Curious how others think about this.