Gregmal

I don’t know anything about it.

Politics is just the excuse to barricade the topics and revert to divide and conquer strategy. Is it all just a coincidence that the actions being proposed, largely only benefit the people proposing them? I mean even good old Dave Einhorn stated today, the obvious. Fed is NOT the one with the tools to solve the inflation issue. Why so much lobbying?

Since @crs223got offended and the last poll was removed, I’ll rephrase in a totally non political way. Are there two sets of rules? And do rules get changed when normal people finally figure out how to play the game? Obviously right now it’s unacceptable that monied up folks have to compete with first time home buyers or that workers have so much leverage against big corporations. As such, we need to snuff them out. But even before this, hedge funds were allowed to behave like Melvin Capital but then once the little guy figured out how to GameStop the system, it was deemed reckless and unfair. Congress has been allowed to trade with info that would send normal people to jail. Gates and Epstein… examples are numerous. Is this how the stock market and economy will play out over the next year or so? The elitists lobbying for changes and actions that oh just coincidentally happen to benefit …the wealthy elitists?

I saw an add for something saying LGBTQ+, and my first though was “shit, even they’re rolling out a streaming platform now”.

I mean the other big thing here is the difference in regime. Trump was very invested in seeing the stock market do well. He utilized executive orders, or emergency powers almost anytime an issue came up. Even “trusting the science” and forcing auto companies to producing ventilators when the idiots who called themselves scientists claimed this was a good solution to COVID even though obviously it wasn’t. Biden doesn’t give a shit about any of that. I don’t think he’s once mentioned the stock market. I don’t think he cares about energy; it’s a “you shouldn’t be using fossil fuels” campaign line for him if anything. His use of executive orders and emergency authorizations have been comical at best, pushing weirdo sex stuff and far left agenda issues. Nothing that really solves real world issues or things effecting the majority of Americans. So a big part of investing in certain parts of the market is…is help on the way….I don’t think it’s even on the agenda here so if you invest I’d stuff that is sensitive to that I’d be cautious.

I have not. If I’m playing high end luxury I only really want the top end. Personally I don’t care for Kors. Versace is meh. Choo same.

They’re all probably good, just feel like KER is often the most easily forgotten about. No positions yet but those brands are classics and worth probably taking a stab at soon. Good China reemergence play too. Plus Europe is in the dumps right? You only get a few good shots at some of these. And it’s never when everyone is giddy about them.

Agree. Been watching KER as well who’s got a dynamite luxury portfolio

Ya the scareds got shook out on fake news back in February and March. Charles Munger included.

The Americans...go read the BABA thread or the Russia Ukraine thread, are under the illusion that China is all evil and uninvestable. Meanwhile CCP is taking unprecedented measures to boost financial markets, provide not only stability, but also transparency never seen before. Of course, nothing is perfect and there is warranted skepticism. But never IMO have I seen the Chinese markets and ADRs greenlighted by CCP like we've seen recently. Meanwhile you have the US agencies attacking and aggressively pouring cold water on any positive foreign development, continuously moving the goalposts on what they want from Chinese listed companies, and oh yea, labeling anyone they dont like "oligarchs" and using that as an excuse to steal their assets. Quite the dislocation between narrative and reality. Since the greenlight a few months ago, Chinese stocks have done quite well.

American centric media outlets

Also rebought starters in MAA and ARE

Flipped some PDD calls into more BRK

It’s hard to get a real picture of some of this because the truth gets censured all over the world to fit the political agendas, however the general rule of thumb is that whatever MSM in NA is shouting, something closer to the opposite is true. Remember how following Russia in February, China was next? China was a pariah and uninvestable? Whoops!

Your thoughts are my thoughts. The shift was already there, it did get accelerated, but the investment options were already too far into the growth cycle(at least for large caps) and valuations way too high.

It has been and continues to be, really easy to predict actually. It’s just money flow on the backdrop of a large and unexpected event. Take something away, demand goes to zero, bring it back, it spikes, over time it normalizes. Everything in time will go back to normal, barring any unique and substantive fundamental shift. The only two of which I’ve found right now for that to be the case are energy and some real estate. Housing on the positive side and office on the negative side. Otherwise, it’s like throwing a rock in a pond. The bigger the rock the bigger the ripple. But eventually everything normalizes and the ripples fade to calm. Goes back to the way it was pre COVID. There’s nothing structurally unique about toilet paper, masks, or air travel that would warrant it being a massively different component of life, in time, than they were pre COVID. The entirety of this in terms of mentally picturing these disruptions actually mirrors the structural underpinnings of a pump and dump.

A wishlist IMO is more so useful when you have a specific knowledge of a company and a commitment to owning it. However too often folks just look at something, say AAPL, and go "I want to own it 10% lower" thinking theyre getting a bargain cuz they see the "10% lower" against the current market price. At $150, $135 looks good. However the 10% lower against a market price that is "old price - 10%"....doesnt look as pretty and they freeze up or then want another 10% off...then rinse and repeat the whole way through. $135 at $135 is what it is and of course now $120 looks "better". Lotta dumb psychological stuff goes into the way people go about investing.

The problem in all these places is government, mostly. They purposely don’t solve problems because they run on the hopes of the people thinking they’ll solve them. Look at NJ with marijuana. Big time liberal state. It was voted on years ago. Why did it take so long and why is it still not even really started? Because they hang carrots for voters. The solution is to let private businesses solve the issues via supply and demand. If there’s demand for something, someone will capitalize on it. Leave it to government, and you get 10 cents on the dollar for every measure.

The worst indoctrination has occurred through advertising/materialism. Americans need their things and their food. It’s why you see folks with shitty Hondas rockin fancy rims and window tints with sound systems. Why obesity is surging. Most clean energy solutions lose tons of money, especially if the government is involved. Remember last time Biden was around we had Solyndra? But even outside of this, it disrupts the status quo. Upend the family balance sheet so you can take on solar panel financing for 20 years! Ditch that car you have to upgrade to a goofy looking EV at 3x the upfront cost. I’ve generally found most people in the lower brackets don’t even care about this stuff. It’s more an upper middle class virtue thing. The upper end of the income spectrum says they care but it doesn’t matter and they aren’t effected. It’s largely the upper middle class in the same context wealthy suburban girls are pro abortion…makes them feel good and empowered but mostly is just handwaving rather than a life devotion.

It’s not apples to apples because here people have been indoctrination and materialized. You give someone in Africa or India the stuff we see poor folks with here and they’re ecstatic. You give folks here the same lifestyle middle class folks in those countries have and they’re crying like babies. The notion of entitled to things like smart phones, restaurant(even QSR) food, and above bare bones price clothing in America is crazy. You have entire villages in Mexico working in avocado farms so Americans can eat at Chipotle or get their toast at Starbucks. It’s all about the system and what’s in place. The existing system here doesn’t allow for this “climate” saving solution overnight without severely damaging most of the country. And again we ask why? What’s the point? No politician or anyone even really outside of Elon Musk has come close to presenting anything legit and even there, Musk has incinerated capital with his venture. California and NY are the best examples. Take, take, take…where are the results? There’s never any results. It s always just “let’s stop using plastic bags”…and that’s it

That’s the whole thing, whether you want it or not, it’s largely lower income, city and rural folks who get destroyed by these policies. Just like with COVID restriction, the politicians and the elitists not only remain immune from the pain, but they profit off it.

Climate change is just an excuse to tax and allocate taxpayer funds towards utterly ridiculous stuff without having to be accountable. Even now, you have $5-7 gas across the country, and the solution supposedly is “why don’t you own an EV?”. Imposing sanctions on an ultra resource rich Russia was just too good to be true for these folks.

Nah it’s good. Just see what the elites are doing and go with it. Buy real assets, buy oil, and short everything else. Then laugh at those who are getting what they voted for and now don’t like it.

Production is only part of the equation. When governments do dumb stuff, it encourages people to call bullshit. As speculators bid up energy, there’s only one way to beat them, and that’s more production. If you can’t, then the animal spirits take over and you get a crisis. That’s what’s happening. Folks talked forever about the Fed put. In energy today, provided you don’t get stung by a turdco, it’s super low risk with high reward because of the ESG put. Low energy prices these dumb fucks shun investment and say “transition”, higher prices they suggest everything BUT the solution, which is more drilling. The US and Canada particularly it’s inexcusable. I think I’ve used the analogy before but what we are doing with energy is the equivalent of starving yourself despite having a pantry full of food.

It’s only getting started! Look at all the job cuts in tech! I love periods like this where there is so much data out there, much of which ultimately irrelevant, but good enough for the alarmists to keep digging themselves deeper…much of which is ultimately what allows these sort of opportunities to occur. Yet another solid jobs report today. Despite the elitists best effort to derail it, the train chugs on!