Gregmal

Well that’s what happens when everyone gets scared and sells their stocks for exaggerated, often media narrative inspired reasons.

Yo so anyone given any thought to the future of office? I’ve kicked it around a little and strikingly it kind of looks IMO, like a lot of what WeWork kinda does???? Used the recent volatility to get about a 1.5% position so nothing high conviction….but I think we can all agree traditional office is kinda challenged. Probably meaningfully changed, forever. Interesting to see where it goes. A lot of other favorable stuff with WE as well ranging from dismal reputation, to spac, to recent IPO or whatever. Why the opportunity exists type stuff.

Between this and now investigating concert ticket prices I feel like these guys are doing everything we elected them to do!

Shorting the weekly OXY puts looks better IMO. Worst case you'll own the stock lower than where Buffett is buying. Ideally you make 3-8% a week doing nothing.

Yea I think you guys are getting a little carried away. I tend to agree with the rational @changegonnacome puts forth in terms of the logic to the events unfolding. Then again I also stunned myself in finding modest agreement with Bernie and AOC in regards to the role of American imperialism in all this...so who knows. Such are the perils of independent thinking.

MSGE you want to own in addition to MSGS. They used to be the same entity and have synergy/hedge features but mainly both are stupid cheap, hold irreplaceable assets, unlevered, and the E also has a very under appreciated ability to generate cash flow going forward. No opinion on BREIT. Personally, you couldn't pay me to own a private market REIT bc they pay shit and you can do better in the public markets, even if its just selling OTM puts or trading fluctuations.

Throw in the MSGs(E+S) and you've got a good list.

Yea but there was real fear in a lot of places, here too, that these ultra hikes were going to ruin the stock market. Theyre guiding 7 hikes. 2% rate. Who cares?

Schiff claimed to have called the housing market crash in 08 but by numerous client accounts, funds he managed lost as much as 88%. Must be something with the last name.

That’s baller. signed, guy who went to an AGM in sweatpants and new balance shoes once

No shit, eh? So predicating things on the NA narrative didnt quite pan out? Something similar just occurred with the CCP. We good, them bad, might be useful cocktail lounge talk, but it doesnt generate alpha.

Depends because nothing is ever static. I don’t trade on feeling or emotion generally, but I also don’t ignore it. You can utilize it to have an edge. People typically behave in similar ways to similar events. There’s an element of predictability to behavior and temperament. So if my initial thought is “wow this is really good” or “oh no this is terrible” I’ve kind of conditioned myself to step back and then look at the opposite end of that reaction. Lean towards to other side of the popular trade. But it’s all highly variable. If your only goal is to make money you eventually realize that being honest with yourself is the only way to achieve that consistently. You typically don’t want to be investing with the crowd. And if you ever get uncomfortable you cut bait immediately because then it’s starting to get in your head.

LOL like a half dozen people misinterpreted what I wrote. I remember that. About -50% cash meant 1.5x margin. Which was actually a tad higher but 50% I used just quick half assed response. So 50% cash is what you thought I meant. -50% means I’m using margin. That said, as was the case earlier in the year when I said it, a huge chunk of that is cash substitutes. For instance when APTS and PSTH get exchanged I may for the first time in my life actually be “net cash”. Although I’m working on reverse exchanging those dollars lol. Getting to be a lot of decent investments around IMO.

What you mean?

Yea saw that. Funny reading some social media around this. Stuff like, "not buying the market rally because VXX is telling us its a head fake". LOL

Every once in a while these products start going haywire and it can end spectacularly. Anyone seeing this with VXX? Totally ripping and detached from the underlying VIX futures right now. Similar to USO a while ago and the infamous XIV. Might be a trade in here somewhere.

+5. You nailed the “futures markets are wrong” read. Was in fact one of the several things that influenced me to chuck some of my options at pretty much the top. Still holding stuff for the bigger picture play, but short term things definitely got carried away.

UBER, CPNG adds. BIDU calls

LOL please. Don’t even get me started. How bout the coastal elitist right of passage of retiring and ducking out to a state with lower taxes?

Man! And to think not long ago we had a crowd here who contested the intertwined nature of investing and politics. As if taxes, attitudes towards businesses, respect for private property, etc has nothing to do with determining how well an investor will fare. Color me shocked!

Yea but the $90 a week is predicated on $10 a gallon and assuming you drive 300 miles a week. But on the second part, definitely, if you heat your home with oil it’s a doozy.

The biggest winner here will be China. Not really a question about that, IMO. Ukraine and Russia are clear losers. EU/US get….not much. Maybe more fuel for getting the good guys in come November but otherwise their victories will be these “media messages” or whatever that means. China plays peacemaker, buys cheap and valuable Russian assets, utilizes the barter chip with US/EU to gain other concessions. Don’t know if there’s an investing play off that….PTR maybe is on the radar but like the folks who just got shellacked buying Russian assets on the exchanges, I’m not sure I see a direct enough correlation to the available Chinese vehicles to make that wager. Fundamentals can be a clear buy but if the political landscape is mucky it’s irrelevant. Which I think applies 100% to Russian stuff(duh right? Lol) but also to a degree with the Chinese stuff that I can’t assess to a high enough degree of confidence.

This is basically my read. He ll get what he wants, but the price was significantly more expensive than he ever anticipated and obviously this is one of those things where once you start there’s no turning back. He basically backed into a corner and we are starting to see the angle develop where “everyone has their media win”. Wabuffo probably hits the timeline accurately, if I had to guess. Of course, like everyone else, I reserve my right to be wrong…a right I just choose not to exercise as often as everyone else! As for the rest, especially the CNN type narratives about rebuilding the USSR and all that hysteria, I’d be short the shit out of it just like all the other nonsense like COVID, polling numbers, Trump-Russia, etc. Thats been the money trade for a while now. Surprised there’s still people falling for it but again, folks believe what they want to and it can cloud their judgment. Makes investing easier for the rest of us.

Yea but what’s the guy in Russia, who works construction, sitting in his living room drinking vodka seeing on TV? That’s what would be interesting from the perspective of studying narrative shaping and propaganda. the stuff that “leaks” through is often leaked through for a reason. Basically to the points @changegonnacome made. Same way you have these toolbag news editors screaming at the underlings “go find me an unvaccinated 6 year old in a red state who’s in the hospital with COVID”. World is big enough to find whatever youre looking for and with enough publishing power you can create all kinds of illusion. What is the illusion being presented to the pro Russia Joe Schmoe? It’s not the one we are told it is here, that’s for sure. They’re people, just like us. What influences them?

^excellent points. I would actually be really interested in seeing what the Russian media is doing and how they are framing all this. If nothing else, we all know how the garbage gets rearranged here, but it would be fascinating to see the other side of things. Wars, more than most other events, while ongoing, are really, really easy to shape. There’s always photos or people who you can go to in order to shape whatever narrative it is you’re looking to shape.