Gregmal

The idea that higher rates will kill everything is largely academic. There is a reason rates are going up. Simple equation. Because of A and B you get C. But if folks wanna completely ignore A and B and just say C will kill the economy... be my guest. Its working well for me.

Yawn. Markets will give you whatever you are looking for. Reason to be fearful, reason to be greedy, reason to love the hysteria or reasons to fall victim to it. We all end up with what we put into it.

Amazing how out of all the MSM fact searching and fear mongering…. And “analysis” that took place regarding this Ukraine situation on this site, this short little quip manages to be the most prescient and actionable. Well done wabuffo

Why can’t we all just agree to make tons of money off this nonsense? It’s highly predictable and literally raining money and “the market” is still red on the year!

Well that’s what happens when everyone gets scared and sells their stocks for exaggerated, often media narrative inspired reasons.

Yo so anyone given any thought to the future of office? I’ve kicked it around a little and strikingly it kind of looks IMO, like a lot of what WeWork kinda does???? Used the recent volatility to get about a 1.5% position so nothing high conviction….but I think we can all agree traditional office is kinda challenged. Probably meaningfully changed, forever. Interesting to see where it goes. A lot of other favorable stuff with WE as well ranging from dismal reputation, to spac, to recent IPO or whatever. Why the opportunity exists type stuff.

Between this and now investigating concert ticket prices I feel like these guys are doing everything we elected them to do!

Shorting the weekly OXY puts looks better IMO. Worst case you'll own the stock lower than where Buffett is buying. Ideally you make 3-8% a week doing nothing.

Yea I think you guys are getting a little carried away. I tend to agree with the rational @changegonnacome puts forth in terms of the logic to the events unfolding. Then again I also stunned myself in finding modest agreement with Bernie and AOC in regards to the role of American imperialism in all this...so who knows. Such are the perils of independent thinking.

MSGE you want to own in addition to MSGS. They used to be the same entity and have synergy/hedge features but mainly both are stupid cheap, hold irreplaceable assets, unlevered, and the E also has a very under appreciated ability to generate cash flow going forward. No opinion on BREIT. Personally, you couldn't pay me to own a private market REIT bc they pay shit and you can do better in the public markets, even if its just selling OTM puts or trading fluctuations.

Throw in the MSGs(E+S) and you've got a good list.

Yea but there was real fear in a lot of places, here too, that these ultra hikes were going to ruin the stock market. Theyre guiding 7 hikes. 2% rate. Who cares?

Schiff claimed to have called the housing market crash in 08 but by numerous client accounts, funds he managed lost as much as 88%. Must be something with the last name.

That’s baller. signed, guy who went to an AGM in sweatpants and new balance shoes once

No shit, eh? So predicating things on the NA narrative didnt quite pan out? Something similar just occurred with the CCP. We good, them bad, might be useful cocktail lounge talk, but it doesnt generate alpha.

Depends because nothing is ever static. I don’t trade on feeling or emotion generally, but I also don’t ignore it. You can utilize it to have an edge. People typically behave in similar ways to similar events. There’s an element of predictability to behavior and temperament. So if my initial thought is “wow this is really good” or “oh no this is terrible” I’ve kind of conditioned myself to step back and then look at the opposite end of that reaction. Lean towards to other side of the popular trade. But it’s all highly variable. If your only goal is to make money you eventually realize that being honest with yourself is the only way to achieve that consistently. You typically don’t want to be investing with the crowd. And if you ever get uncomfortable you cut bait immediately because then it’s starting to get in your head.

LOL like a half dozen people misinterpreted what I wrote. I remember that. About -50% cash meant 1.5x margin. Which was actually a tad higher but 50% I used just quick half assed response. So 50% cash is what you thought I meant. -50% means I’m using margin. That said, as was the case earlier in the year when I said it, a huge chunk of that is cash substitutes. For instance when APTS and PSTH get exchanged I may for the first time in my life actually be “net cash”. Although I’m working on reverse exchanging those dollars lol. Getting to be a lot of decent investments around IMO.

What you mean?

Yea saw that. Funny reading some social media around this. Stuff like, "not buying the market rally because VXX is telling us its a head fake". LOL

Every once in a while these products start going haywire and it can end spectacularly. Anyone seeing this with VXX? Totally ripping and detached from the underlying VIX futures right now. Similar to USO a while ago and the infamous XIV. Might be a trade in here somewhere.

+5. You nailed the “futures markets are wrong” read. Was in fact one of the several things that influenced me to chuck some of my options at pretty much the top. Still holding stuff for the bigger picture play, but short term things definitely got carried away.

UBER, CPNG adds. BIDU calls

LOL please. Don’t even get me started. How bout the coastal elitist right of passage of retiring and ducking out to a state with lower taxes?

Man! And to think not long ago we had a crowd here who contested the intertwined nature of investing and politics. As if taxes, attitudes towards businesses, respect for private property, etc has nothing to do with determining how well an investor will fare. Color me shocked!

Yea but the $90 a week is predicated on $10 a gallon and assuming you drive 300 miles a week. But on the second part, definitely, if you heat your home with oil it’s a doozy.