Gregmal

Interesting. You don’t think hanging that carrot to trigger aggression had anything to do with this whole thing? You’re boasting that these politicians are what? Talking about getting energy elsewhere? Self interest I’d say? You say what? Sending big bad Vlad a message? Definitely not standing with Ukraine. None are standing behind Ukraine even as Zaleski begs them yet the media tells you otherwise and you believe them? You say Europe is taking unprecedented action, even though you offer few real specifics and those you cite have very little to do with actually helping Ukraine, but then ask me to Google things? Dont know what to tell you Viking. As others have pointed out, thinking for yourself involves criticism from folks who tout the headline narratives. Differing opinions are not welcomed, sure. You talk about thinking for yourself but have repeatedly since I’ve been a member here fallen victim to swallowing headline narrative and agenda inspired rhetoric. The polls in 2016 and again last cycle. Trump/Russia. You were up in arms several times about Russian interference in the US elections because of tweets but when confronted about what the US did in Ukraine asked “where were the tanks”! Somehow “we won and Putin is fucked” is all you get out of this which given the backdrop(Xenophobia towards Russia) isn’t surprising. If you want detail go back through all of this. Weird how it’s playing out very different from what was brandished the last few weeks. Where are the nukes? Who’s next up for the USSR conquest? Oh no, now it’s that Putin is stupid and all of Russia military is crumbling because they suck, that’s the prevailing MSM portrayal and not surprisingly, your perspective as well…coincidence? Weird. Or maybe Russia finally drew a line in the sand and war broke out. Their goal was….exactly consistent with what they’ve repeatedly stated for almost 2 decades and in line with the release on Monday? US/EU/NATO fuck off in Ukraine or we ll take action. Nah, too farfetched. Market reads that and realizes it’s been duped again? Another weird coincidence. Or I guess you think Monday around the same release they got wind that some Russian military tanks were too poorly engineered and things would turn out differently than they thought 2 weeks ago? but sure, let’s talk about thinking for oneself as you lazily revert to pigeon holing the stance I’ve taken and described it, just the way the MSM has taught its disciples, as “Putin is a swell guy”. LOL it’s almost as if the responses and interpretations are from the textbook. And then on top like you’ve done before when called out will say I’m “personally attacking” even though making the previous assertions doesn’t qualify….it’s all so strange. also, cardboard still reads some of the stuff here. He s been on point with the markets lately to a crazy degree. He wanted me to ask how you took profits when you’re so heavily in cash and Fairfax is lower than the price you paid for it a couple days ago? Ok that’s in gest but I laughed when he emailed me about it.

The reaction to Poland offering some old fighter jets is all one needs to see to understand the situation. “Oh no, no, no you don’t. That’ll trigger a conflict and we would likely get dragged in! No!”…..far cry from the “we banded together and showed Russia who’s boss!” Narrative. In North America we re peddling our propaganda and some are buying it as always. In Russia they’re pushing their propaganda, and some are probably buying it too. China is loving it. And in Ukraine their lives and country are destroyed. This is what happens when a peon country flirts with the xenophobic big boys.

Right on cue... https://nypost.com/2022/03/09/psaki-predicts-even-worse-inflation-report-after-40-year-high/ These things were a big problem prior to Ukraine. But now its because of Putin. White House got what it wanted from Ukraine.

They've abandoned Ukraine but sent over some cash and some weapons. What a hell of a response. LOL

Obviously. He doesnt want to deal with unstable dictators. Thats what the media told me. Just took a slight moment to do a narrative shift on Iran!

I mean Russia still has like 5,000 nukes. What changed in the last 48 hours? It became too hard to keep peddling the sensationalism and BS narratives and it became clear that for better or worse once Ukraine was neutralized that chances are this no longer escalates. And that Russia is already half way home in destroying the same place, the EU/US won't do a damn thing, and in a fucked up way, everyone is happy except the Ukrainians who trusted the US/EU.

The media couldn't hide a "demand list". Monday seemed to be the bottom. Tuesday people started realizing it. Today we rally. Coincidence. Couple the demand list with the repeated logic that NATO/US/EU repeatedly, over the past decade kept pushing Ukraine even though Russia has warned it was viewed as a national security risk(something a few folks here nailed) and the likely ultimate result of a destroying and/or conquered Ukraine(either accomplishes the 3 demands) and there you have it. Nothing that should be dragging down the majority of US equities. Energy prices will be temporarily relieved thanks to the good guys running democracies in Venezuela and Iran. Funny how it all works right?

I think if you're still trying to form a picture on this you missed the move. But what do I know?

How bout some Venezuelan oilers? I chuckle at the logic being used; of destroying the Russian people and economy to punish a guy with 3 different billion dollar mansions and small city sized bunkers... by enriching dictators in Iran and Venezuela, all while we have oodles of oil and gas.....right here at home! Yes, people voted for that.

Just remember, a week ago we were on the verge of a nuclear war and Putin was going to recreate the USSR.... People, this is why markets can behave irrationally LOL Now. Going forward, who are we going to listen to? The people who bring us one sided, agenda driven stories, the people who brought us the "polls" for 2016, 2018, and 2020, the people who have scandal and lawsuit one after another over the accuracy of their reporting and the disclosure of their conflicts.....or..... Often times game theory is the easiest exercise and you only need half a brain to apply it.

Man, someone called it. Brandons War creates higher energy prices and now its the result of corporate greed so of course we need to have Pocahontas or Bernie introduce a windfall tax.....my god these clowns are predictable.

Exactly. Once everyone has their propaganda, er, media narratives where they need them to be, it'll be over. Mondays shocking yet not shocking at all news about Putins demands basically tipped the hand as far as my investing approach and signaled what I suspected anyway. Media drove this to a crazy circus that had even totally unrelatedly shit like MSGS(LOL) selling off. When really it was much ado about nothing and soon VIX should retreat sub 30, energy speculation will cool off a bit, and folks will go back to worrying that 4-5% mortgage rates will kill the economy.

~10% OTM and a month or less til expiration. With VIX over 30 you're getting paid extremely well and if you get put the shares the valuations are still favorable.

Shorted some OTM puts on OXY and XOM

Lol sounds about right. Xi playing chess while Brandon begs. Yup.

Actually, yes. Thanks

What would people peg as the odds, say we were running a bookie operation, that ANYTHING neutral or sharing the Russian POV here can be found in a MSM piece? Not saying I support them, but if I was looking for an unbiased way to see both sides of this thing, anyone think I could get it in the good old US of A?

Cashed in a chunk of energy related options.

Musk is a national treasure

Adds to the bag holder portfolio. Z and RBLX

Exactly, that’s been the US angle all along. $150 oil cuz war is better than $90 oil cuz of our stupidity. Here’s hoping American voters are as dumb about this as they were about COVID.

Yea. If I can read that $4 gas won't cause folks too much pain, so will the politicians. So of course, like the scum they are, they'll push the envelope until there is real pain, and some of us will get fed a plate of food we didnt ask for courtesy of the 51%. So yea, probably still some room to go higher. Even short term.

Yea just like the 4-5% mortgage rate killing housing is BS, the consumer IMO is not going to be bothered much by $4 oil. But there is a tipping point. Then the roller coaster starts moving the other way. The key with all these types of trades is to grab and reallocate as much as you can. You dont have to call the top you just have to walk away with a satisfactory reward for your time. Which often means holding portions past the peak. So Im just spitballing the gauge. For instance, XLE ATM calls are 7x from less than a year ago. Shit like that. The problem is that outside of stuff Im already pretty overweight, Im not seeing too much suitable on the replacement side.

So do folks think with a Russia ban US oil should be $130? im all for the thesis and think it’s got legs…it did at the beginning of the year before Russia was even a story. But did this pull a bunch forward, alpha wise, from the oil spike thesis in a good way, a bad way, or neither?

So last week or maybe the one prior there was talk about the stupidity of banning Russia oil and it’s effects on gas prices at home. It was said Russia is only a small amount of the supply and so it wouldn’t matter. How does this parse with the price movements in anticipation of the ban and even price movements on the ban?