Gregmal

Hey it is what it is. Everyone is entitled to opinions and I respect infinitely more the opinions of people who put their money where their mouth is and over time some people just happen to be right more often than others. If your money is where your mouth is that adds up pretty quickly and if you’re wrong then you learn just as fast and those faulty opinions can quickly resolve themselves. And if there’s nothing on the line who gives a shit about that opinion anyway as it’s by definition, worthless.

Divine right inspired land grabs are much more complicated than either side fighting for them can convey. And they’re too hard as you said to really break down beyond certain levels. Thankfully, this is far from an Israel/Palestine situation. The majority of those people can’t agree on anything whereas much of Eastern Europe is very much ideologically on the same page. So it might create minor fireworks but I think the real impacts will be from EU/US actions and sanctions.

Because as fun as it is making money off this stuff the stupidity and inefficiency of it all is highly aggravating. I don’t know why, it just is. I guess because I believe people should be forced to be accountable. After spending 4 years literally fabricating issues and hoaxes we now have 100% real and consequential ones and they’re largely the result of the whiny establishment/academic gated community crowd and the poor ones that just don’t know any better and need the system that feeds them to continue doing so. I mean even COVID….it was what you made of it. Last year I did the exact same thing as the year before, the same thing as this year. Hotels and resorts that were $60 last year and shut the year before, are $900 a night now. Why? Because it took some people 2 years worth of fuckin up to realize they shoulda just left shit alone to begin with and now all that stupid policy and economic decision making has to unwind. The energy issue is totally avoidable but we want to lecture about saving the climate or whatever that means. And now as we rewrite districts and try to reinvent election rules we want to pretend to be interested in “humanitarian” issues in china and Russia LOL. Not sure exactly how this relates to the exact title of the thread, but it’s a derivative; the top was last January/February and that’s not really debatable, but as things progress this is all relevant to not making more problems than necessary. Tech is largely a first world luxury. If we continue to ignore the biggest issues we ve faced in some time there’s virtually no way many of these companies can continue benefitting as they have in the past.

We see it all the time where these absolutely foolish and fantastically scripted narratives flow throw mainstream NA that ball up and arrogantly dictate how everything about Asian, Eastern Europe, and much of middle eastern culture is wrong and we’re superior. We lecture from our own glass house. And granted, there’s plenty wrong with the way things can happen in all those places, but the same is just as true about North America. Yet we continuously lecture and mind others business when most have no clue what they’re talking about and their limited knowledge of the ways of life of others in those areas come from America centric media. It’s all a joke. We currently have 7%+ inflation, $100 oil a tick away, shortages of food everywhere, housing at the most unattainable levels ever. And everyone STILL wants to act like our own shit don’t stink and preach to China and Russia LOL! But what’s encouraging is that 1) it’s so easy to make money from all this it’s almost unbelievable. And 2) voting and poor policy finally seems to have consequences. It’s earned and deserved and about freakin time.

And for the record I am Ukrainian. Well actually maybe Polish.100% don’t know for sure. The borders changed quite regularly around the time my family members were moving around. Western ideology and media is so ignorant of the rest of the world. You could recreate the “concerned” citizens protesting in Kiev with pictures from a PETA ad in front of a slaughterhouse in Idaho processing ribeyes for Kroger. We re just first worlders needing entertainment and things to be “concerned” about because Netflix is running out of good content and we haven’t had real problems in a while. But now because of a perfect storm of asinine politics and policies, supply and demand imbalances, and capitalism, energy and hunger crisis could very well be coming to NA. Folks reap what they sow.

Nah you’re just regurgitating the US centric media spin narrative. Why isn’t the US northeast part of England anymore? The people play a larger role than you think in deciding what they want. Ukraine is massively pro Russia. This all happens and the media gives you reason to get upset but how come none of you are talking about NY rewriting districts for voting purposes with the intent to seize control of areas? There’s this media porn fantasy that folks here love, the stuff liberty posts in the red alert thread….but you’re being played. Have you paid any attention to what’s come out of the current defamation suit against The NY Times? They openly admit to faking and ignoring fact checkers to put out manipulative narratives. Life isn’t about to change super drastically in Ukraine anytime soon. Sure there’s people you see in the street raging because CNN gives you the feed, or twitter shows you pictures, just as there’s truckers waiting for your boy Trudeau….but that too is a peanut in terms of its real life relevance. But regardless, you guys said Brandon was the answer. Enjoy what you’ve created. He’s so behind and predictable and Putin know it. What’s the career politician going to do to Russia? Impose sanctions that crush poor and middle class Americans via their energy costs? Yup. Brilliant!

Well, until then, there’s futures options available to keep profiting from the continued raping of the most vulnerable. Even shitty QSR type food is getting pricey! Anyone keeping an eye on fertilizer costs? Better stock up. Thank you Brandon.

Man! Where’s @Read the Footnoteswhen you need him? All those experts on psychological analysis declaring Trump a Russian puppet….the fella they voted for seems mighty effective. Ukraine going back to Russia. Arguably where it belonged to begin with as a huge percentage of Ukrainians consider themselves Russian and support Russia. It’s basically been a self serving US/EU initiative to steal Ukraine and the bulk of that region following the Cold War. IMO this is largely much ado about nothing. But the beauty? Nat gas is gonna go through the roof and $120 oil ain’t too far off either. Been debating picking up some $200 CL calls. It’s closer than everyone thinks.

Yup and $100 CL calls going out up to 3 years from now cost $2 not long ago. But people believed the lies that the politicians, bankers and doctors told them. Too easy. Enjoy your $5 a gallon gas.

Added to DIS at 149.

Got oil/gold futures and call options? Thanks to all who voted for this! What a dumb ass. Now he's gonna tax opec! LOL

I agree. I think we spent most of the year over 20 VIX. Between that, commodity environment, and rate swing, an investor would be wise to take an interest in an education focusing on how the navigate the futures markets.

A lot of these things exist but in tandem with many other variables. However over and over investors say “rates” or “fed” and then look at it in a vacuum and then draw ridiculous conclusions. That’s all I’m highlighting. In January all we heard was that “this”! was happening because of the Fed. What was “this”? A 5-10% pullback LOL. Of course “this” didn’t happen because of the Fed when everything rebounded….nah…when things came back there was no commentary. Now -1% and again we re fabricating reasons for it. I’ve heard for ages that rising rates are bad for reits and I’ve repeatedly said get lost, no they aren’t. Well, last two years we’ve had probably 25% rent growth on average and companies are guiding for 8-12% on 2022. Perhaps the 10 year hits 3% up from .5 and the Fed hikes 4x. So what? If we have more rate hikes in 2023 it’s gonna be because rents will go up another 10%. If we exclude content all the time everything is scary. So, as always, a lot of much ado about nothing.

Actually scratch that, 2% 10 year was 2019. We re scared of returning to 2019. Maybe I can get more Disney under 150 soon please?

And FYI, the treasury is now back to where it was….in like 2016….oh the horrors. What happens at 3%!!!! Where it was in ‘14! What a giant waste of time worrying about such shit.

Much of the supply and demand imbalances and thus insane pricing is easy fixable and will be resolved shortly. On the other hand, it’s gotten so amusing now every 1% market pullback we all seem to be “ready and waiting” for the bear to emerge. WTF plenty of ways to make money right now, if you’re having trouble perhaps just change the focus

Well at least we can hope the dum dums keep selling stocks that do well with inflation like they did all of January.

Beauty. There are few better stocks to play with options on than CLF

Inflation is only a problem if you don’t have assets. Keep it comin, I say.

They should take their bonuses and buy some Florida real estate!

AIV and JOE

Yea I mean guessing at what I can deduce, I’d gander you’re a bit more risk averse than I…but I never really think it’s a bad idea to pick at stuff in small size. Ever really. You like something a small position pretty much never hurts you. But in terms of taking size in these, I just think it pays to let some of this stuff play out a little further. I’ve never in my investing life really been one to say sit on your hands. But after the way COVID played out, and then the year 2021 was, I just get the feeling there’s potentially some hazard ahead in 2022. Lot of different stuff that can play out in a lot of different ways. The worst type of losses don’t occur for fundamental reasons but simple multiple contraction. And multiple contraction you don’t really recognize til it’s too late because it’s just a market thing where people keep the same fundamentals but just get a lower price on the dollars/growth. I could be wrong but I don’t see any of the big tech stocks doing any better than a lot of other stuff out there with easier return profiles over the NTM so my inclination is to just wait and see. Can always buy it later. They’re not going away anytime soon. The preference is always for 1 ft hurdles.

So I haven’t been doing a whole lot and while on vacation am not inspired to be doing much more than small trades/swings but if the product of Fed liquidity was snuffing out volatility, is the new trade to be long volatility? Of course the calls and in general VIX futures are a tough long trade. Is the winning formula to short VIX puts? Seems pretty much a given volatility should remain elevated as “whatever” people expect to play out continues to do so or not do so over the coming months.

Ya I dont really think its wise to ever go in too heavy on a market timing call, but if I were to place some bear chips at the table..... tech is really kinda low reward/ high risk right now IMO. Housing, Land, Entertainment, and Energy for this old geezer. EDIT: Actually bought a starter in MCW today

Now AMZN beats and the QQQs and related cos go up. A day after FB sent them all down. A day after GOOG sent them up. People have officially lost their minds. Or maybe it just happened slowly over a 10 year stretch. I find it amusing.