Gregmal

Yea I think it’s a no brainer and you can spin it by taking in tons of useful Eastern Europeans. At least compared to the other option which some are suggesting….basically maim the lower-upper middle class so rich people can buy cheap assets…

Yea but Powell doesn’t have control over most of the stuff influencing inflation. Energy is a result of stupid politicians and tension with Russia. Consumer products are COVID supply chains. Labor you could argue is influenced by high asset prices but also could be solved with incentives and immigration. The whole inflation thing IMO is easily solvable.

Joe add omg add htl add aiv add msge add hhc starter

The inflation that most people believed last year was transitory obviously wasn’t. The reason this was obvious is because there were still a lot of idiots playing the COVID game. Give out money and restrict activity and this is the byproduct. Now you are starting to see that reverse. It will unwind and correct itself regardless of what the Fed does. The Fed is just helping send the crypto bros and tech savants back to their by the hour w2 jobs.

Plus a bunch of my position is the $5 2024s which have held a little better than the shares and have idiot proof downside protection at $5.

Still like it. Have more stock hitting 12 month hold period Friday through next week so gonna be hitting that too. No rush right now. Market is giving prices that are pretty remarkably cheaper than I’d have expected across the board, so I’m good just layering in with PSTH and APTS proceeds over the next 2-3 months.

Dumped a few more tax lots of APTS and cycled into more PCYO, VRE, Nintendo, RBLX, CPNG and put some aside for Disney sub 90 after earnings lol.

Prem, among others, giving up shorting was one of the markers we were nearing the top.

If folks can’t handle volatility they shouldn’t be in the stock market. Yellen is correct.

It does feel a little different but ultimately seems a lot like the late 2018 flash crash. Everyone had a “reason” why they thought it happened, but really, nothing happened and momentum just kind of built up and puked. The only effects I see of this market swoon in the real world are people talking about it. Not much behaviorally different. Still can’t get restaurant bookings or a cheap vacation home any of that fun stuff that usually becomes more accessible to the privileged folks during hard times for the common man. On the bright side, the next cycles 10-20 baggers are already probably buyable. Hard to find them though when everything looks like a turd. I close on some Ripple shares this week. Hooray private market liquidity!

I think that’s the key here. Why bother with stuff you don’t have a hood handle on?

More PCYO

The majority of those things haven’t really changed. Consumers are still doing extremely well. Job market is awesome for lower and middle class. Meh for upper middle but not bad, and cooling for super high end, but they re fine regardless. Maybe some tech engineers will need to put on hard hats. Oh the horrors. Rates are still low. And more importantly well below inflation. So yea, 15% isn’t a big number. Under the surface energy has buoyed a good chunk of that. Much of tech minus the big ones have been annihilated. I think the excess in the market has to a degree been squeezed out. Fundamentals seems relatively healthy. There’s just always a reason for folks to get carried away. Maybe Mr Market is waiting for me to panic…IDK, been bored more than anything. But we are starting to see some real good opportunities. So idk guess we ll just have to see. I suppose too we ll have a few moments like BXC last week. Where the market and the computers get carried away and then they report numbers and for a moment it’s like “hey the real world just called and said what’s up”.

Spoke with another local agent this morning. This is an hour from nyc highlights: me: there’s like 50 listings right now, usually this time of year there’s triple that Her: Well they were actually 35 listings and out of those 35 seven have an accepted offer so the inventory is the lowest I’ve ever seen it. me: my tenants have been looking to buy for about 6 months. They say it’s virtually impossible her: We’re seeing an average of 15 offers some houses 30 to 45 offers there’s so much cash out there it’s crazy people are buying everything up with cash if you don’t have cash it’s hard to compete hopefully it changes because it’s been a real hard time selling homes as an agent

The GFC in regards to US housing was basically a once in a lifetime event. Which is why it’s laughable when I see people dramatically declaring “recession”, pausing to wait for gasps, and then baselining models off of “this is what happened in 2008”. Folks would be better off completely throwing 2008 type stuff out the window. Using it and letting it influence future investment decisions likely has, and only will continue to be, to your own detriment. It is soo hard to default on a mortgage, let alone have so many of them come at the same time it effects the macro. Give it up folks.

Confidence termites. Over time this has proven quite prescient. @muscleman kind of hit it too. First the grim reaper comes for the crap. Then it takes the overvalued and overowned quality. Then it washes out all the weak hands. Nothing has shown this to not be the case. It’s played out almost exactly as the textbook would have indicated it should.

Yea 47.5b and 50 bps on the Fed funds rate, or….bubble that started busting over a year ago continues to burst and similar to almost every bubble in history, the slow melt phase accelerates into a widespread panic phase…. you tell me what’s driving the market? Folks often need reasons for things so there is a need to draw them up. Best example is on CNBC or Seeking Alpha where the headline is “abc is down today, here’s why” and then you look and it’s flat or up. Fed doesn’t set the stock market returns as part of its policy. It’s just kind of acts as a buffer to keep things generally going the way they need to be. The easy money just sloshes around. Right now it’s in energy.

This is a great point and certainly something worth investigating. The whole rate argument for housing often falls short of any contextual exploration and relies too much on basic first level spread sheet inputs.

Don Julio 1942. Don’t even really like tequila, but figured I’d throw some back in honor of all the fallen techies.

Added 50% to Z position.

So multiple years later you can’t afford the same rate the mortgage was when you purchased?

The tech framework used for investing the last decade isn’t going to work going forward. I think some stuff has gotten cheap, but even there, it’s gonna be awhile. Lotta folks learning the hard way. I mean AAPL and GOOG not long ago traded at like 15x. It’s not inconceivable that at some point Mr. Market assigned that to AMZN, NFLX, SHOP, etc. and if he wants to use real GAAP earnings? What are the share prices then? I wouldn’t not be a buyer for the longer haul. Just mindful that you are basically making private placements at this stage in the game because these sort of reckonings often take a while to sort out.

I sense a lot that people are just mad. Savers are mad they didn’t get in on the free money bonanza. Bad or lazy investors are mad that now buying SHOP at 60x revenue doesn’t work simply because it’s “cheap” compared to 70x. The leverage crowd is mad because it’s more expensive to put on less profitable trades. And FANG investors are mad because price is what they’re paying but value is still scarce in GAAP terms, or just generally if you account for things like SBC. But really, all this was just a great chance to dance. Now you actually have to earn your returns. People don’t like having to work for things.

I’ll copy and paste cuz I’m lazy and sent out like the same thing to several people already but I think there’s a much simpler reason for much this this and people feel comfortable using the Fed as an excuse or blaming them for every market move. The explanation is much simpler IMO and it started before the Fed did much of anything: End game here, little of this makes sense in any context other than well, ridiculously overvalued tech stock bubble burst. Funds owned way too much of that stuff and are now getting blasted. Too much leverage forces wind downs. Seems to be consistent with that read and how markets have been acting for last year or so. I don’t really believe that the 10 year going back to 2018 levels is really doing this. That’s just the excuse or maybe the straw that broke the camels back.

I think before we do anything we need a “this is what happens when…” explanation for these events. Added a hair to eBay