Dalal.Holdings

Ursula the Brussels bureaucrat goes up against Trump the Real Estate guy from Queens...Goes about as expected: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-27/eu-us-clinch-deal-to-avoid-trump-tariff-hike-ahead-of-deadline?srnd=homepage-americas So uhh...what did the EU get out of this exactly ???

I own this. Seems like selloff due to analyst lowering target to 12.7 eur

They need to get rid of the rules that prevent purchasing Expert Market stocks IMO. These days you can buy all kinds of junk in Crypto, sports betting, events betting, or even regular equity land, but Expert Market stocks? Off limits for some reason

So @wabuffowe should expect surpluses for at least the next few months, correct ?

Must...stop...right wing parties from gaining control

So there is no reason we shouldn't expect continued surpluses ? Do I have that correct ?

The race to Spend Spend Spend on AI is as hot as ever. But how will AI ever generate the returns to compensate for all the spending? Meh, let's not think too much about that...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/eu-chief-demands-china-address-trade-imbalance-as-tensions-flare “European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen accused China of distorting trade and limiting access for European firms two weeks ahead of a summit between the economic powers.” “If our partnership is to move forward, we need a genuine rebalancing: fewer market distortions, less overcapacity exported from China, and fair, reciprocal access for European businesses in China,” von der Leyen told the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday. Ursula sounding like DJT

The fact that mainstream economists and pundits wrote this guy off tells you all you need to know. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-economic-activity-grows-77-april-above-expectations-2025-06-30/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-inflation-cools-may-lowest-over-five-years-2025-06-12/ https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/argentina-milei-rent-control-free-market-5345c3d5 https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/deregulatory-lessons-from-argentina-how-javier-milei-lowered-rental-prices-40/

Mitachi reported for Fiscal Year ending May 2025: - 213 JPY/share in profit (so currently P/E or 6) (up 39% YoY) - Revenues up 152% YoY to JPY 98.2B - Operating Profit of JPY 2.15B (up 35% YoY) - Dividend of JPY 60/year (4.7% yield) FY 2027 (Starting in June 2026) Targets: - Revenue of JPY 100B - Operating Profit of JPY 3B Current FY 2026 targets are below FY 2025 (expected EPS of JPY 188/Op Profit of JPY 2B). FY 2027 would represent 50% rise in Op Profit from 2026. Their goal is to maintain or increase ROE at or above 10% (FY 2025 was 11.3%) and boost the multiple on the stock according to earnings slides. They are going for a 30% dividend payout ratio.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-05/france-urges-tariff-barriers-to-stop-china-from-killing-industry?srnd=homepage-americas What will all the Free Traders at the World Economic Forum say though ?

OPEC wells are not shale wells. If you wait around for them to deplete, it’ll be a loooong time. Massive opportunity cost. “Most of the bbls will be nation to nation” sounds highly suspect. Oil is largely a global commodity. Plus, the stuff in West Texas and West Canada trades at discount to Brent. I’ve been bearish oil for a while and prices have gone down and down while supply keeps up and growing. I think people in the Oil Patch wear perpetual rose colored lenses…eventually the prices will force pain on them. Until then, these guys will always just do the only thing they know how to do: just go make more oil. The only way that stops is when there is real pain in the sector. There has been no pain thus far and so I’m not interested. As usual, the genius of the likes of Buffett/Graham are proven true: “Ben Graham told a story forty years ago that illustrates why investment professionals behave as they do. An oil prospector, moving to his heavenly reward, was met by St. Peter with bad news. “You’re qualified for residence,” said St. Peter, “but, as you can see, the compound reserved for oil men is packed. There’s no way to squeeze you in.” After thinking a moment, the prospector asked if he might say just four words to the present occupants. That seemed harmless to St. Peter, so the prospector cupped his hands and yelled, “Oil discovered in hell.” Immediately, the gate to the compound opened and all of the oil men marched out to head for the nether regions. Impressed, St. Peter invited the prospector to move in and make himself comfortable. The prospector paused. “No,” he said, “I think I’ll go along with the rest of the boys. There might be some truth to that rumor after all.” —WARREN BUFFETT, 1985

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/12/trump-saudi-us-oil-industry-00332620 I can't believe this is news to some folk. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/business/opec-oil-production-price.html Trump liking low oil prices is something that should have been apparent to everyone, but I guess it wasn't.

Oil isn't just going to trade on vibes. You have to ask whether any of those things actually changed supply/demand in a meaningful way. The answer is No. If anything, supply just keeps going up...

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-considers-raising-oil-output-by-550000-bpd-august-sources-say-2025-07-05/ More Flooding

My point being that there's more and more oil being brought to market despite oil prices being unremarkable/low (esp on inflation adjusted terms). There's a lot more oil out there than oil bulls can admit and a lot of people willing to drill for it even though the price they get for it is nothing special...

Somehow people just keep finding more oil

EUR now up over 13% since Jan 1 vs USD. Even with no appreciation, Euro stocks have delivered amazing annualized returns in dollar terms and crushed S&P even though S&P is near ATH…

Yep, they all sold out--with the benefit of hindsight

If Donnie successfully achieves ceasefire about 48h after wrecking Iranian nuclear facilities, letting Israel let loose for ~12 days, massively weakening Iranian regime, he will have proved his mettle. Guess it's time for the Nobel Peace Prize if it works out (would certainly be more deserved than the one Obama won), but of course European elites won't ever let that happen

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-23/iran-launches-missile-strike-at-us-air-base-in-qatar-tasnim?srnd=homepage-americas My condolences for oil bulls who were hoping for World War 3...

Probably most important is Warren almost never paying more than ~15 times earnings for anything