Dalal.Holdings

excellent graphic! We finally agree on something! Though I wonder if for different reasons... :-X

“Omg the libtards actually hold their own leaders accountable for their shortcomings...wonder what that’s like...” Maybe Cuomo will start trying to pass the buck to WHO or a NYC councilman in Queens... Glad the NYT doesn’t emulate the Hannity model of “journalism”...

That’s why price fixing and collusion are not allowed in places like U.S...the problem arises when you also produce a commodity that is produced by a cartel in other places.

You don't understand exponential growth and R0. Places that are set up in a way that R0 is higher emerge first. Other places take longer, but they still get there. Remember how in exponential curves it looks like nothing happens for the longest time and then it all happens in a very short amount of time? Rural places still get colds and the flu, right? In fact, they can potentially be hit harder per capita than big cities because their healthcare isn't as advanced and their populations tend to be less healthy (more obesity, diabetes, etc). Only a cesspool urban dweller would try to rationalize disease spread in dense areas with fancy terms like R0... These places are not “real America” anyway (though we’ll take their disproportionate GDP output) Japan shows how this grows in urban places (Tokyo, Osaka): https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/1782780/embed

The things you don't understand are items 2, 3, 4, and 5. When you put in the lockdown, it seems like it's about 2 weeks until cases fall (assuming similar testing criteria, which seems to rarely be true.) Once someone is symptomatic, it seems to take somewhere in the range of 2-3 weeks for them to die. Hospital resources, and in particular the ICU, fill up and the death rate increases as this happens. So, if your ICU isn't filled, you'd expect to see deaths decline between 4 and 5 weeks after lockdown. If the ICU reaches capacity, you'd expect deaths to decline even later than that, since the percentage of people dying because they can't get access to ICU treatments will increase. Thanks for posting this. Please have it ready to repost when we need it again a few days from now. It’s like we have to reinvent the wheel each time.

Singapore is locked down as of yesterday. 'Dead city': Singapore enters month-long lockdown https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/04/582116/dead-city-singapore-enters-month-long-lockdown And now Tokyo (Japan) about to enter the fray: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/1737f92bfccd-coronavirus-list-of-shops-to-close-in-tokyo-due-to-emergency-declaration.html Link has an interesting graph and shows how over time there is a massive build in densely populated areas (like Tokyo or NYC) likely due to increased R0. Those dense regions have odds stacked against them in fighting this outbreak. Edit: direct link for the analytically minded: https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/1782780/embed

Singapore is locked down as of yesterday. 'Dead city': Singapore enters month-long lockdown https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/04/582116/dead-city-singapore-enters-month-long-lockdown And now Tokyo (Japan) about to enter the fray: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/1737f92bfccd-coronavirus-list-of-shops-to-close-in-tokyo-due-to-emergency-declaration.html

Reddit comment: Trump changed course and claimed “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” LOL. Fortunately some people have very short attention spans so these kind of statements have 100% efficacy. Trump called it a "hoax" on Feb 29 and minimized the threat (comparing to the Flu and estimating "zero cases") well into March. WHO is a global org, yet there are countries that have done very well with this outbreak such as S Korea, so clearly national leaders can drive the outcomes in countries. No one here believes the WHO manages things like our CDC/FDA, testing, etc do they? WHO did not do a good job that being said -- waiting so long to declare a pandemic, hesitating on masks, and mid January "no confirmed human-human" (i.e. "absence of evidence"), but I never heard them refer to it as a "hoax", and certainly not at the end of February. Trump gonna pass the buck to whoever it sticks to: local/state officials below or multinational bodies above. It works like a charm on many people. Trump gets asymmetry with his followers: someone else gets the downside (Obama, WHO, Cuomo, De Blasio, Sessions, etc), while he gets all the upside. A risk-free trade: the perfect arbitrage.

A form of what Dr Burry is suggesting is likely what we see as we move to the next stage in the battle. Is the church of “scientific consensus” going to change their view? Will the epidemiological popes allow Galileo to give his opinion or will he be burned at the stake for heresy? My guess is the latter... Lol, Galileo. Galileo's investments in Gamestop and Tailored Brands need the Church to listen! Galileo may be suffering from an acute case of incentive caused bias (Even Newton wasn't immune to the whims of the South Sea Company)... But yes, what Pres Cuomo is already planning...a strategic reopening. No matter who they are, consider them talking their own book. Especially if they've spent years (?decades) in a hermit level of silence and suddenly feel compelled to shout all their thoughts out to the world on Twitter or CNBC.

A form of what Dr Burry is suggesting is likely what we see as we move to the next stage in the battle. Is the church of “scientific consensus” going to change their view? Will the epidemiological popes allow Galileo to give his opinion or will he be burned at the stake for heresy? My guess is the latter... Lol, Galileo. Galileo's investments in Gamestop and Tailored Brands need the Church to listen! Galileo may be suffering from an acute case of incentive caused bias (Even Newton wasn't immune to the whims of the South Sea Company)... But yes, what Pres Cuomo is already planning...a strategic reopening.

Yes, makes it harder to interpret/draw conclusions. As far as counting Covid positive cases, one should not expect a smooth trend when demand for testing is exceeding capacity. According to calculated risk post I put up, CA released a ton of results around Sat Apr 4 as it worked thru a backlog of testing which may explain a spike in cases that day and a drop off the next day. The output of data is lumpy.

1,941 deaths in a day exceeds average number of U.S. deaths from heart disease (~1700-1800) in a day. Tragic. Clearly aggressive action was necessary. Hopeful that the slowing in growth of cases leads to peak in mortality soon.

Worth taking a look at: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/04/april-7-update-us-covid-19-test-results.html

Attempting to pass the buck: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1247540701291638787 100% will work on some people.

FWIW: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cdc-exclusiv/exclusive-u-s-axed-cdc-expert-job-in-china-months-before-virus-outbreak-idUSKBN21910S Why didn't Cuomo or De Blasio pick up the slack? And those who are most ardent about the blatant failures of government (coincidentally, the government is most inept when they happen to be the ones running it) always find a way to fund things like Defense Dept and bloated contracts to companies like Boeing ("cost plus!"). It's national security (a form of precautionary principle), but defending against a pandemic or funding the EPA somehow not on the same level of priorities for those folks.

A lot of these actions (mobility, deep breaths) are used routinely in hospitals to reduce the risk of pulmonary complications post surgery (out of bed orders, incentive spirometry) so they make sense. They can help clear secretions, improve pulmonary mechanics, reduce risk of atelectasis (part of lung collapsing leading to pneumonia). Can also reduce other complications (deep vein thrombosis). Other actions that I think help are: - Indoor humidification (optimizes mucociliary clearance-MCC) - Avoiding cold air (MCC is optimal at core body temp) - Maintain hydration (optimizes mucuous layer that covers respiratory tract and clearance of particles/microbia and may prevent viral attachment/entry)--so optimizes MCC again; use oral rehydration formulas to do this: pedialyte, gatorade, or just water + salts + sugar - Vitamin D (some evidence about upper respiratory infections in general) - Multivitamin (because why not? asymmetry) In fact, a lot of asymmetry with all of these.

Exhibits A and B for my point. Not to worry too much about the fools of randomness as the key concern for those who take this seriously was that policy makers would be among these people. Thankfully, we have seen the vast majority--even those that dragged their feet--take it seriously when reality became impossible to ignore. Even the guy calling it a "hoax" just a month ago now claims he was on board the serious person train the whole time! As policy makers have largely understood seriousness (though some variation depending on where you live), the systemic threat is reduced. Those who continue to minimize the threat confine a large part of the consequences of their views (ignorance) to themselves which is the appropriate outcome. TL;DR: don't waste time on the fools of randomness--I certainly will not.

Definitely positive. Our President (Cuomo), who has already accomplished the highest volume of testing per capita (even though NY is among the most populated states), is now talking about antibody testing -- those with proven immunity to be let out first. Seems like a decent strategy, but the concern is that may be too small a number to celebrate "reopening". Nice to have a cautious, reasoned leader though.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2020-04-07/new-york-governor-cuomo-holds-coronavirus-briefing NY new cases decelerate to ~8%, new deaths grew about ~15% (not insignificant). What this tells rational folk is: 1) Deaths are delayed and a lagging indicator (duh) 2) The benefits of seemingly draconian "overreaction" by President Cuomo (the de facto President for 'cesspool' NYers) are only seen weeks later. Likely due to several week incubation period before severe symptoms develop. Nonetheless, President Cuomo's management of this "hoax" has been superb, especially considering the fact he does not control the FDA or CDC.

Agreed that it is obviously not the flu. Re: the title question of this thread, it does seem like there will be plenty of "just a flu" folks who are basically impervious to looking at data or applying some common sense napkin math. They're going to be confident in booking travel, going to mall, book cruises, etc as the economy reopens. So forecast accordingly. And this graph is despite unprecedented mass school closures, social distancing, masks becoming normalized, lockdowns, and travel bans. But I guess some will continue to think we are "overreacting".

#1 for sure. Many businesses like to run things with maximal capacity in mind--and they have leveraged income statements (operating leverage) and balance sheets as such. Few anticipate not having full restaurants, airplanes, hotels, etc in perpetuity. And few managers keep excess capacity on hand like Buffett is trained to do--be it cash or operating margins or inventory. MBA "balance sheet management" means lever up to 2-2.5x EBIDTA (and project that EBITDA to grow 3% per annum in perpetuity). As we see MBA level "inventory management" means keeping just enough on stock to get through tomorrow. If there is a squeeze--for ventilators or masks for example, it creates all kinds of headaches and extreme outcomes. As Warren's Noah Rule says: "Predicting rain doesn't count. Building arks does."

Fuck off

Nice to see a glimmer of hope for NY, but it must not be forgotten that a huge cost was taken to produce this outcome. It did not happen on its own. To compare Flu deaths to this (which occur without any sort of extreme measures like lockdowns or travel bans) is absurd. Some models continue to project that deaths have yet to rise for the U.S., solidifying the thesis that deaths are delayed and this was not as widespread months ago as many thought. It has played out in order: places that have a surge of cases have a follow up surge of mortality ~2-3 weeks later. It has not occurred simultaneously around the world, but rather in a specific sequence. The question once NY cools further is--will there be a Spain to our Italy (NYC)? NYC had rapid rate of growth in U.S. due to density (R0 is higher in that case), but other areas could follow. Nothing guaranteed, but other areas are taking precautions already after witnessing NY (which many claim are excessive). And we also have to see what happens when the actions that slowed progression (lockdown) are reversed. Anyway, the reason we are all here: investing. This pandemic (which has been repeatedly minimized by many) has already had huge impact on markets & the economy and we have not even really seen the beginning of that (i.e. earnings season about to start...), and it may have a long shadow of impact even after this has all gone. Clearly an impactful event that those who took this seriously & necessary precautions 1+ month ago dodged a big body blow. Always opportunities to dip in, but remember bear markets take time to play out (unless "this time is different"). Markets meanwhile are pricing in a 'V' type economic trajectory...

Well he went in big on Gamestop and Tailored Brands, so not surprising.

Two points: - Scientists and doctors rely on evidence. There is little evidence that masks protect the wearer in low-risk situations. There are two reasons why there is little evidence. One, they probably are less effective than you think (see below). But mostly, ethics boards tend not to approve research studies where you intentionally expose someone to an infectious disease. Doctors/scientists love to say: "there is no evidence that...". But we should remember what useless Taleb says: "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" After all, there's a reason there haven't been too many randomized controlled trials studying the impact of mask wearing on a pandemic involving spread via respiratory droplets. Again, invoking Taleb/or a trader's POV: wearing a mask provides asymmetric payoffs for the individual: little downside, lots of potential upside: (i.e. like the asymmetry Trump gets with his loyalists) For Fauci and the government, lots of downside if people start hoarding masks because they did not prepare our stockpiles and have burned a few bridges with nations who can produce them for us.