Dalal.Holdings

The China study did not show statistical significance and it was in patients with severe disease. The NIAD ACTT study (Not necessarily in as "severe" patients, but hospitalized ones who have imaging findings or need supplemental O2 or a few other criteria) did not show statistical significance in mortality, but did show reduction in time to recovery that was statistically significant. Unfortunately does not seem to be a game changer based on the NIAD press release (study hasn't been published yet), but so far Remdesivir is the only drug that has been shown to do something in a RCT in Covid (unlike Hydroxychloroquine/Azithro), so it's something I guess. So the ACTT shows that it works in patients, but not necessarily severe ones (per inclusion criteria at https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04280705). This may indicate that Remdesivir works if administered earlier, before the disease becomes severe. The problem with this is that Gilead has indicated that it takes a lot of resources and time to manufacture doses of this medication (I believe their estimates are to have enough for hundreds of thousands of rounds of treatment this year) and if we are not restricting Remdesivir to only severe patients but giving it to everyone hospitalized, we may not have enough of the drug because that is a fairly large number of patients...

It's just unfair to compare Germany, which is led by a former quantum chemist, to the USA which is led by a reality TV persona. You don't have to go to PhDs in quantum chemistry... In general, it's hard to find a country led by someone dumber than the US right now. There's a lot of countries on the planet, so there's probably some out there, but none come to mind. This is why I say just reopen and encourage precaution for those who will do it. We’re stuck with our leadership until Jan 2021 at the very least, so waiting it out with more lockdowns doesn’t seem to be worth the economic costs. Some places will come out of lockdown stronger/more prepared than others due to varying response throughout the country and varying demographics/density. We proved we’re not S Korea and we’re proving we’re not Germany.

I am of the opinion we should reopen strategically and those who choose to be careful can continue to be careful and those who don’t won’t. Federal gov’t has not developed enough testing/contact tracing to do this in the safest way, but there is little hope they will if given more time due to overall incompetence. We’ll get back to our lives, but the world won’t be like it was before—certainly not for some time. I think certain healthcare sites will just have to have covid units for the considerable future. We have changed certain aspects of our behavior that will protect more individuals, but I do believe unfortunately that large portions of the population will continue to be high risk. At this point, it looks like it will be endemic in many countries for some time. And no, herd immunity is not coming anytime soon.

Interestingly, they have heat and humidity in abundance. They also have density though (migrant dorms, public transit, etc). Only 12 deaths which means 1) they are testing like crazy and/or 2) the deaths will grow as these relatively new cases run their course (likely a combination of the two). One other interesting thing to think about—is the disease less severe in hot/humid climates? It is well known that some of the innate immune defenses of the lung such as mucociliary clearance work better in warmer, humid environments. Lungs may actually be better protected if you catch this in warm & humid climates...the optimist in me wants to believe it, but we’ll have to see how mortality in Singapore evolves... However we should note that Singapore, like S Korea (and unlike neighbor Malaysia) is aggressively testing and contact tracing since early days—this reduces mortality too.

Haha—that would put a lot of traders out of work!

If you don’t have access to storage, it will be in your interest to pay someone who does to take the contracts off your hands. Perhaps the negative floor for margin calculations should be the current cost of storage in Cushing.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1254747293414305792?s=20 Delays checks so he can put his name on them...then attempts to shift blame onto other party. Brilliant--will 100% work on his muppet followers. Donald "I have total authority" yet "I accept no responsibility" Trump. A great leader and an even better puppeteer!

Turns out it wasn't just U.S. based Robinhood users who bought WTI ETFs: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-26/bank-of-china-clients-said-to-have-1-billion-losses-on-oil-bet They're asking the lender to shoulder some of the losses...

A lesson in not celebrating too soon: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-26/singapore-reports-931-more-virus-cases-total-exceeds-13-600 Interestingly, they have heat and humidity in abundance. They also have density though (migrant dorms, public transit, etc). Only 12 deaths which means 1) they are testing like crazy and/or 2) the deaths will grow as these relatively new cases run their course (likely a combination of the two).

Good find. Those graphs are telling. Definitely not "like the Flu". And the sudden spikes reveal that this virus was not "spreading for months" in these regions, but rather there was a sudden surge in cases. Many assume the denominator of CFR is underestimated, but the numerator is also underestimated in many measuring attempts (a lot of amateurs don't account in the delay from onset to death for example). This is another indicator we may be missing certain deaths from covid (eg. deaths at home). Hard to parse through these things, but excess mortality is definitely occurring for all causes. For one, when hospitals in hard hit areas are full of covid patients, other patients will experience worse healthcare...which can increase mortality in those groups. A lot of noise and uncertainty with a pandemic that looks an order of magnitude deadlier than the Flu. In my book, that means precaution is warranted. +1 That is the one of the important points of flattening the curve as much as possible. Because when hospitals are hit hard, the deaths due to other causes spike simply because lack of resources / fear of going to hospital, etc, etc. One can argue that even though these subjects did not get Covid, they died as a secondary effect of exponential rise in Covid infections. Other reasons of-course is to be able to ramp up testing, expand capacity for covid related supplies, develop plan and co-ordination etc when we start opening up. On another note, Denmark has decide to pay ~ 75% of every citizen's income upto a large sum until shutdown is slowly lifted. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/denmark-freezing-its-economy-should-us/608533/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/mortenjensen/2020/03/31/how-denmark-is-navigating-through-the-coronavirus/#346d6019fc7e Yep--and in the flattening curve models, these deaths are not accounted for because they are very very hard to predict/model. Hence the flattened curve scenario seems to have a similar AUC in the models when in reality it will likely be smaller than the area under the curve of the sharp peaking scenario. Another thing that flattening allows--people to prepare (i.e. deploy a navy hospital ship to NYC, manufacture and stock up on PPE/vent, etc) and change their behaviors--social distancing, masks, etc--these things have taken some time for westerners in particular to adopt. Buying some time is generally good with something like this--as the FT article shows, there was literally a Tsunami in deaths that without significant intervention would have overwhelmed systems in place.

Good find. Those graphs are telling. Definitely not "like the Flu". And the sudden spikes reveal that this virus was not "spreading for months" in these regions, but rather there was a sudden surge in cases. Many assume the denominator of CFR is underestimated, but the numerator is also underestimated in many measuring attempts (a lot of amateurs don't account in the delay from onset to death for example). This is another indicator we may be missing certain deaths from covid (eg. deaths at home). Hard to parse through these things, but excess mortality is definitely occurring for all causes. For one, when hospitals in hard hit areas are full of covid patients, other patients will experience worse healthcare...which can increase mortality in those groups. A lot of noise and uncertainty with a pandemic that looks an order of magnitude deadlier than the Flu. In my book, that means precaution is warranted.

Gregmal: Exhibit A in "Often Wrong, Never in Doubt"--fools of randomness. No wonder these guys love Trump--he resembles them to an uncanny degree! Loves attacking those who called it right and his memory problems border on critical dementia (helps himself feel better about being often wrong though). On top of that, I love hearing his views on women, minorities, dying New Yorkers, etc. A real class act! His posts continue to detract value from most of this forum--the "best of the best" of CoBF! Can't shake the sunk cost fallacy of his ardent support of Trump over the years. I hope you & your kind are active participants in the market for sure.

There goes that lone example from the “do nothing” crowd. But what do you expect from people who lack any sense of objectivity and scientific literacy? Often wrong, never in doubt. I think at this point, the Swedes have done OK in my opinion. As long as their health care system isn’t crashing in Stockholm, where the population density is highest, their approach isn’t really a failure. They try to get herd immunity at an acceptable cost (in terms of lives). So far, by their own judgement, that is still the case and who are we to judge otherwise? Swedes may not fare as poorly as some regions--Wuhan, Italy, NYC due to lack of density/different lifestyles, a functional healthcare system, robust sick leave policies, and a population that is highly compliant with social distancing. Even S Korea was able to avoid full lockdown due to underlying positive societal factors (+widespread testing/contact tracing and compliance with self quarantine). Unfortunately not too many other places have these things going for them.

Really? Flattening the curve strategies do not incorporate in their projections a positive black swan emerging: a vaccine, effective treatment, or heat/humidity reducing spread/severity/mortality (positive black swans) because this is impossible to predict. They also do not necessarily incorporate extra deaths from healthcare overload (which would be very hard to estimate). Hence our nonsense peddlers seize on this as "proof" that flattening has no real benefit. They are left out of models because it is impossible to model black swans (even positive ones) and extra deaths that result from overload. Just because they are left out does not mean these are not very real benefits of flattening (they are). As the bank example I used--if everyone goes to the bank to ask for their deposits all at once vs over time, you will see a real, nonlinear difference as the bank will fail in the fmr scenario. Again, I am not going back to square one (arguing about benefits of curve flattening which should have been settled 6 weeks ago) and coming down to the level of our great nonsense dwellers here...

Typical liberal elitist hollywood guy. Why doesn't he focus on issues relevant to me like Hunter Biden or Biden's sexual assault accuser? Biden only has 1 accuser which is very suspicious to me--most innocent men have 25 accusers like that Harvey guy. And Burisma has more of an impact on my life than Jared Kushner choosing how to distribute ventilators or Ivanka telling gyms to reopen. Time to tune into Hannity where I can get the news that actually applies to my humble life.

Lol. This somehow proves models are useless? Reminder to self: refrain from responding to nonsense peddlers.

There goes that lone example from the “do nothing” crowd. But what do you expect from people who lack any sense of objectivity and scientific literacy? Often wrong, never in doubt. I'd revisit the deaths/mil number in 16 months and it should be similar across most of the countries. The area under the flattened and peaked curves are about the same... No one is arguing the area of the curve is different. The area under the curve will be approximately the same, but flattening and delaying peak prevents healthcare overload (which would lead to more deaths and more area under the curve), allows to buy time for positive black swan (treatment, vaccine, warm/humid weather) to emerge. If a vaccine or treatment emerges, the flatter curve is better and ends up with a much smaller AUC. That’s one thing you are discounting (in addition to consequences of ICU/vent/healthcare overload). That's why I say revisit in 16 months, when all those factors would have played out, instead of them being model assumptions. I'm sure Sweden has many qualified health experts too and a prediction model. For some reason, they concluded that their approach is the best course of action. Only time will tell. Why 16 months? Let’s revisit in 10b years during the heat death of the universe. /arguing nonsense

There goes that lone example from the “do nothing” crowd. But what do you expect from people who lack any sense of objectivity and scientific literacy? Often wrong, never in doubt. I'd revisit the deaths/mil number in 16 months and it should be similar across most of the countries. The area under the flattened and peaked curves are about the same... No one is arguing the area of the curve is different. The area under the curve will be approximately the same, but flattening and delaying peak prevents healthcare overload (which would lead to more deaths and more area under the curve), allows to buy time for positive black swan (treatment, vaccine, warm/humid weather) to emerge. If a vaccine or treatment emerges, the flatter curve is better and ends up with a much smaller AUC. That’s one thing you are discounting (in addition to consequences of ICU/vent/healthcare overload). Put another way, it’s everyone going to their bank to withdraw their deposits all at once vs slowly over time. The area under the curve is the same, but in one of the scenarios, the bank fails.

There goes that lone example from the “do nothing” crowd. But what do you expect from people who lack any sense of objectivity and scientific literacy? Often wrong, never in doubt.

Obviously no one knows where things end up, could just be confirmation bias for bears, but look forward to reading all the senility speculation about Carl too. Carl seems to be practicing something called precaution... I guess once again he is taking an opposing stance from his boy Ackman. Let's see who prevails this time. Some good commentary from Elliot. https://www.docdroid.net/kfBxxVh/elliot-letter-april-162020-perspectives-paul-singer-elliott-pdf#page=9 Was definitely fun watching some of this stuff as it happened and “overreacting”.

For the “models were wrong” crowd (i.e. perpetual nonsense peddlers): A lot of limitations w the IHME model (for example would miss any second waves, dumb decisions by policy makers to reopen too soon), but it’s done a heckuva job so far. Source:

The Art of the Deal: Georgia reopening succeeds = win for Trump Georgia reopening fails = win for Trump There is only upside to be had among his supporters, no downside for Mr. "I take no responsibility" President. He is a master puppeteer I'll give him that.

Another famed investor has gone "senile": https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-25/icahn-says-stocks-are-overvalued-virus-may-cause-downdrafts Obviously no one knows where things end up, could just be confirmation bias for bears, but look forward to reading all the senility speculation about Carl too. Carl seems to be practicing something called precaution... I guess once again he is taking an opposing stance from his boy Ackman. Let's see who prevails this time.

You've officially become the house troll here. Greg’s not wrong. Dalala already said “I’d rather vote for a guy who stutters.” I’m waiting for the Biden voters to say “we’re voting for the lesser of two evils.” This is a joke right? I vote for a non-sociopath President over a sociopath any day. It's not a lesser of two evils. The man can only put self first and that's dangerous. Romney, GWB, Bush Sr, McCain, whoever would be much better and have demonstrated the ability to put country before self. It doesn't mean these people are selfless monks, but when push comes to shove (i.e. a pandemic that kills 50k Americans), they can put aside their self interest for a bit. BTW: https://www.businessinsider.com/women-accused-trump-sexual-misconduct-list-2017-12 Remember, he "grabs women". We all know how the game is played by Trumpers: - We need to see all her e-mails or Obama's birth certificate, but it's ok if we don't see Trump's tax returns. Oh! look at this thing in her e-mails! Oh, his birth certificate does not seem to be an original copy! Let's spend all our time scrutinizing this person and not Trump. - Sure, he puts his son in law and daughter in roles in the WH that they have no business in where American lives are at stake, but did you hear about Hunter Biden's role on some Ukrainian company's board? Outrageous! - Biden has 1 sexual assault accusation that should end his candidacy, but Trump's 25 accusers are all full of it! Double standards for Trump's zombie followers. Trump's offenses tend to be >10x worse, but he always gets a pass because "he tells it like it is" (unless of course he is being "sarcastic")! Back to the politics section for you!

WHO is a science led org. When there are a lot of unknowns, scientists like to use the phrase “there is no evidence that...” but it is important to remember that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. On the flipside, there also isn’t a whole lot of evidence that you can get this twice if your immune system is functional. So really, we know nothing. But they are erring on the side of caution. These scientific statements confuse a lot of lay people. That’s why you see a lot of brilliant minds in places like here jump on the “see! WHO said no evidence of human to human transmission in mid january so this proves they did not think it was a big deal!” That’s nonsense due to misinterpretation of the “no evidence” statement by scientifically illiterate lay people. For a long time, there was “no evidence” that smoking led to lung cancer because doing a study that proves such an association is very very hard. Same thing with this outbreak which is only like 4-5 months old, so we have a lot of absence of evidence and the only thing that makes sense is to invoke the precautionary principle in such a situation.