Dalal.Holdings

10. Everyone is a potential vector for the disease but the young will barely be affected. Children should not be locked up when they are essentially protected from almost any symptoms of the disease. The sooner they get the virus, the sooner they can develop immunity. In other words, the sooner my kids get it, the sooner I will get it, and my wife, and her coworkers, and their spouses and spouse's coworkers, etc... etc... Children don't live at home alone, what is this author dreaming about? Any parent with young kids in school/daycare understands that children bring home infections that they acquired from other households (other kids in school/daycare). It has long been shown influenza declines when schools are shut (Winter break or forced closing in hard hit areas with flu). Schools serve in many cases as a reservoir whereby infections are transmitted to new households. The fact that kids tolerate this in a mild way makes it worse--they are not going to stay home sick because they may not even notice the infection. They're going to go to school and play with other kids while having mild or no symptoms. The kids that catch it will also have mild/no symptoms and bring it home to parents/grandparents/etc (new household infected).

When you try to capture the upside in reopening: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1249712404260421633 But remember, it was the states’ responsibility to get masks and ventilators. Will be up to real leaders w boots on the ground (e.g. Cuomo, not this guy) on how we reopen.

So lie about the reported numbers? Where’s Hannity when you need him? And somebody fire Fauci...

Well, it's been < 6 weeks and the tone of the thread has certainly changed... What matters now:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/u-s-now-has-the-world-s-deadliest-coronavirus-outbreak Sure, we have a larger population than most countries, but after being among the last places to get surging cases from this outbreak, this is a tragic failure of leadership--and most of the blame lies at the Federal level (where CDC/FDA could have rolled out testing sooner, stocked up on resources, restricted international/inter-state travel, locked down places with known cases to restrict spread, etc).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/the-unexpected-holdout-to-a-global-oil-production-deal

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016 Looks like it has some efficacy. More data to come this month.

Also, Peter Attia thread on the hypoxia/hemoglobinopathy theory: The hemoglobin binding notion is very unlikely IMO. For one, Covid does not infect RBCs (where hemoglobin is). And for another, there is a very easy explanation for hypoxia in these patients: ARDS. Occam's razor is useful here. And let's not forget that the vast majority of "in silico" computational binding studies are very low utility and certainly not predictive, even weaker than in vitro studies (which is itself inferior to in vivo and then in situ). Bill Gates in the video posted by Liberty doesn’t believe it works either. He mentioned it looks good in the lab, so they surely have looked into this. Personally, if I get COVID-19, I would ask my doc to give it a try. It’s not like there are many other options and I don’t have or existing conditions the would make it dangerous for me to use. More upside than downside I think. I forgot to add--Red Blood Cells have no nucleus, no DNA, and no RNA. So a virus cannot hijack RBC machinery to replicate (and form its proteins) like it can in other cell types. Hence very unlikely the virus infects RBCs. Again a major hole in the hemoglobin binding hypothesis. Also, AFAIK there is no effective treatment even if the hemoglobin theory is true. Furthermore, covid patients respond to oxygen treatment which is another hole in the theory. Edit: Wikipedia to the rescue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_blood_cell

Also, Peter Attia thread on the hypoxia/hemoglobinopathy theory: The hemoglobin binding notion is very unlikely IMO. For one, Covid does not infect RBCs (where hemoglobin is). And for another, there is a very easy explanation for hypoxia in these patients: ARDS. Occam's razor is useful here. And let's not forget that the vast majority of "in silico" computational binding studies are very low utility and certainly not predictive, even weaker than in vitro studies (which is itself inferior to in vivo and then in situ).

Yeah, I think that epidemiologists who have spent decades of their lives studying diseases are a bit more sophisticated than just copying the HIV strategy. I think they've probably spent a fair amount of time analysing about how our reaction to a disease should be impacted by the way that disease is spread. Like, maybe you're thought about this stuff for three hours a day for the past two months. If that's the case, many of them have probably spent well over 100 times that much time thinking about the issues, and they actually been educated on this topic specifically. At some point, you might want to consider whether the Dunning-Kruger effect might be relevant in this situation. People who wake up one morning and think they've thought of stuff that people who think about this for a living haven't thought about say more about themselves than the epidemiologists. This 2017 book might help them get up to speed on what epidemiologists actually think about: https://www.amazon.ca/Deadliest-Enemy-Against-Killer-Germs/dp/0316343692/ Just wait for them to find that one epidemiologist/MD/PhD who agrees with what they are saying. It's like finding that one "scientist" PhD who doesn't believe in climate change and using that to bolster their arguments when the consensus is clearly oriented the opposite way.

This is almost exactly equal to what Iceland's random testing showed. It should be remembered though that PCR will be negative in someone who has recovered (no more viral RNA) and is immune. Antibody tests will tell you overall how many have been infected and that "German Wuhan" region showing 15% is not reassuring for herd immunity crowd. And none of these numbers are at all consistent with "this has been widespread for months" hypothesis.

And we think that herd immunity might kick in once we get to 40%-60% carrying antibodies? That is very interesting news, indeed, and much faster than I would have expected. SJ The German Heinsberg district became a significant hot spot (linked to carnival celebrations at the end of February) so the virus had the 'opportunity' to spread. Despite this, the antibody response rate is fairly low and in no way can be extrapolated to other parts of the country, some of which haven't even 'seen' the virus yet. Bingo. 15% in one of the hardest hit regions is not an encouraging outcome as far as whether herd immunity is feasible. And this pretty much invalidates the “widespread for months” thesis.

Welcome to the new "free market" economic model: where bankruptcies are a thing of the past! They would be stupid not to to ask for it in the current environment. Has anyone asking for a bailout been rejected? Nope, hence our new economic model. Anadarko was clearly worth every penny to Oxy... Let's let every corporation know henceforth that the gov't will be there to backstop them if any "unforeseen" event takes place in the future. The government has become a giant insurance co that collects no premiums! Edit: and the corporate debt purchases are only for bonds that were investment grade prior to March 22 (not Oxy), so yes—the gov’t has more or less said no to junk rated companies.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/occidental-seeking-federal-lifeline-for-u-s-oil-industry-1.1419703 Welcome to the new "free market" economic model: where bankruptcies are a thing of the past! Clearly Oxy's horrid balance sheet is none of its own fault!

excellent graphic! We finally agree on something! Though I wonder if for different reasons... :-X Hopefully this won't be the last time! Fingers crossed!

If it worked as well as Trump thinks it does, you wouldn't be seeing 1700+ daily deaths. Invert, always invert. can you report a poster for abject stupidity? not to mention taking the name of a great investor in vain by mere association You are a treasure!

If it worked as well as Trump thinks it does, you wouldn't be seeing 1700+ daily deaths. Invert, always invert.

Don't forget--these people put the rest of us at risk with their efforts to derail the fight against this pandemic + climate change. The risks are not confined to the (foolish) individual, but are systemic.

excellent graphic! We finally agree on something! Though I wonder if for different reasons... :-X

“Omg the libtards actually hold their own leaders accountable for their shortcomings...wonder what that’s like...” Maybe Cuomo will start trying to pass the buck to WHO or a NYC councilman in Queens... Glad the NYT doesn’t emulate the Hannity model of “journalism”...

That’s why price fixing and collusion are not allowed in places like U.S...the problem arises when you also produce a commodity that is produced by a cartel in other places.

You don't understand exponential growth and R0. Places that are set up in a way that R0 is higher emerge first. Other places take longer, but they still get there. Remember how in exponential curves it looks like nothing happens for the longest time and then it all happens in a very short amount of time? Rural places still get colds and the flu, right? In fact, they can potentially be hit harder per capita than big cities because their healthcare isn't as advanced and their populations tend to be less healthy (more obesity, diabetes, etc). Only a cesspool urban dweller would try to rationalize disease spread in dense areas with fancy terms like R0... These places are not “real America” anyway (though we’ll take their disproportionate GDP output) Japan shows how this grows in urban places (Tokyo, Osaka): https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/1782780/embed

The things you don't understand are items 2, 3, 4, and 5. When you put in the lockdown, it seems like it's about 2 weeks until cases fall (assuming similar testing criteria, which seems to rarely be true.) Once someone is symptomatic, it seems to take somewhere in the range of 2-3 weeks for them to die. Hospital resources, and in particular the ICU, fill up and the death rate increases as this happens. So, if your ICU isn't filled, you'd expect to see deaths decline between 4 and 5 weeks after lockdown. If the ICU reaches capacity, you'd expect deaths to decline even later than that, since the percentage of people dying because they can't get access to ICU treatments will increase. Thanks for posting this. Please have it ready to repost when we need it again a few days from now. It’s like we have to reinvent the wheel each time.

Singapore is locked down as of yesterday. 'Dead city': Singapore enters month-long lockdown https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/04/582116/dead-city-singapore-enters-month-long-lockdown And now Tokyo (Japan) about to enter the fray: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/1737f92bfccd-coronavirus-list-of-shops-to-close-in-tokyo-due-to-emergency-declaration.html Link has an interesting graph and shows how over time there is a massive build in densely populated areas (like Tokyo or NYC) likely due to increased R0. Those dense regions have odds stacked against them in fighting this outbreak. Edit: direct link for the analytically minded: https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/1782780/embed

Singapore is locked down as of yesterday. 'Dead city': Singapore enters month-long lockdown https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/04/582116/dead-city-singapore-enters-month-long-lockdown And now Tokyo (Japan) about to enter the fray: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/1737f92bfccd-coronavirus-list-of-shops-to-close-in-tokyo-due-to-emergency-declaration.html