Dalal.Holdings

Argentina should be a clear case study of what happens when unchecked leftists (Peronists) wield power for too long

The FT analysis was PPP adjusted and the LSE made the claim about living standards vs Mississippi. I don’t think too many outsiders have been to UK’s poorer areas

Taking out London is problematic? The whole point of taking out London is to show how the rest of the country is doing. It's to show how unequal things are for those outside London (where many wealthy foreigners tilt the scale). And it's doing worse than America's poorest state (Mississippi) in terms of living standards and productivity outside London--GDP per capita (not outright GDP). They took out SF and Munich to show that the rest of Germany & USA outside of its most productive cities are doing relatively ok economically. The same result holds for Amsterdam/Netherlands (see below). If London is taken out, UK is much poorer. This is not the case for USA/Germany/Netherlands. UK is highly unequal and London should not be used as a guide to see how the UK is doing because it has other factors (rich foreigners). And you can bet that this kind of thing will affect who gets elected in UK because national elections are not going to be won just in London. And even with London included, UK is at the level of...Alabama and not far from Mississippi. There are major problems with productivity in the UK and if people want to claim that's "severely biased", they're welcome to ignore reality--just don't be surprised when people like Nigel win elections. The first step in fixing a problem is acknowledging that one exists. If that can't be done, it'll never be solved. Here's the FT (another British source): https://www.ft.com/content/e5c741a7-befa-4d49-a819-f1b0510a9802

The mandate is intact... a "landslide" according to Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentines-vote-high-stakes-test-mileis-libertarian-vision-2025-10-26/

Well, if you want to pretend that giant tectonic plates of European politics aren't moving, that's your right! A chart from the BBC on UK productivity is "biased" because it was posted by an American citizen--very interesting take. And yet someone visits London and comments on how many cranes they see and that's a useful marker on how the UK is doing from your standpoint ? What we've seen with Trump, Brexit, German energy policy, Russia-Ukraine, stagnation of European economies, popularity of Le Pen, AfD, Farage/Reform, etc over the past decade should tell you that the world has changed immensely. If you want to be an informed investor, you'll need to face the facts rather than pretend it isn't happening. Here are more "severely biased" sources from this American citizen (and yet the sources are British...lol): https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/britain-is-falling-behind-the-us-and-productivity-is-largely-to-blame/ https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49971853 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/28/solve-uk-productivity-puzzle-need-start-with-state/

It's great that people share this online so even more UK citizens can learn how to game the system. Only genius leaders of the UK who went to the "best" schools could have dreamed up such a scheme:

Europe has a more deeply entrenched leftism problem. All of the universities that churn out most of the politicians, lawyers, judges, etc. Their elites, steeped in leftist ideology, genuinely think they are smarter than everyone else and therefore deserve to rule over the masses. What do they want? Open borders, no CO2 (do not exhale because that will cause global warming), no capitalism, and of course--government checks in the mail for "disabilities" such as anxiety. Anyone who questions this dogma is simply labeled "hateful", "ignorant", and "greedy" and then you don't have to pay attention to them. And yet British elites wonder why UK productivity has flatlined for about 20 years now...I guess they didn't learn that from their leftist Uni professors.

Change is coming

Merz says ICE ban by 2035 is a no-go and now this: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/keir-starmer-net-zero-climate-britain-labour-party-04c069aa?mod=hp_opin_pos_5 No one available to check the Leftists is a big reason Europe is what it is today.

Yep. And then you have this: https://clubqualityvalue.substack.com/p/newprinces-ipo-valuation-update-post The guy does SOTP analysis by valuing the Italian Carrefour (the supermarkets Carrefour was happy to sell) at 8.7x EBITDA. Most supermarkets trade at 4x EBITDA (due to high capex). Carrefour itself is like 5x EBITDA. These guys just throw pie in the sky multiples on these businesses, add them up, and say "wow, look at the big discount to NAV!" New Princess management was sure they'd get 1.5 Billion GBP for their London IPO, but even the bankers had to walk that down to 1.2 Billion GBP...and even then the IPO might be a dud. Management seems very promotional and this reeks of the type of investment spreadsheet bros like. It's also the type of investment that's good for writing substacks, I guess...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-22/canned-food-firm-princes-seeks-up-to-400-million-in-london-ipo Looks like the IPO will be 20% discount to what they were hoping for. Quite a few people touting the SOTP here but I think they make the mistake of overvaluing some components (Carrefour) and others. This is basically like a rollup of all the trimmings of the big food cos? Full of the brands no one wanted ?

He's still hoping for a good deal on BHF because the teacher told him Book Value was the way to value such a business

https://www.ft.com/content/61f63a45-e21c-4cda-9020-18ee0edf5ea7 Japan's Iron Lady

He owned GBRK but then shorted housing? Taking Long/Short to a new level

https://www.ft.com/content/745fff84-2cbf-491c-b70c-e39bc8edaa39 German industrial production now at ~2005 levels. Very sad and a lot of it is self-inflicted. Some people wonder why AfD support is increasing. Germans (and the EU) need not just fiscal spending, but deep structural reforms. If Merz can't turn this around, AfD is guaranteed.

“While other nations invest in energy security and technological modernization, Germany burdens its companies with green regulations, unaffordable electricity, and bureaucratic suffocation. The same government that shut down clean nuclear energy now forces manufacturers to operate on the most expensive power in Europe. For small and medium-sized enterprises, once the backbone of German prosperity, the cost pressure is unbearable. Insolvencies are soaring, capacity utilization is collapsing, and thousands of skilled workers are losing their jobs.”

This was something that was predictable long ago. OPEC has been signaling such for a while. The current President ran on keeping prices down and loves talking about low gas prices. That energy investors think a President like him is good for them is quite amusing.

Other than that they both trade in dollars, there is no reason. Supply-demand is everything. Plus, oil is a consumable commodity while gold sticks around forever once you dig it up. There is a lot of coincidence that fools people into thinking there is correlation when looking at charts

Haha--What's next, you'll tell me the Yom Kippur War was a direct consequence of Nixon's devaluation ? No, I don't think the devaluation led to the embargo. It was the Arab response to the 1973 Yom Kippur War. And then at the end of the 1970s you had the Iranian Revolution which led to the 1979 Oil crisis.

There are a lot of counter-examples to Gold-Oil link. Covid is one clearly--oil prices went down to negative territory because oil demand collapsed. In the 70s, Gold surged because of the Nixon shock while oil surged due to the Arab Oil embargo/Iranian revolution. These were two completely different events that sent both commodities up. If you looked at both their charts, you would have thought it was due to correlation when in fact it was mostly due to coincidence.

Oil has its own supply/demand dynamics that are driving its price low. Even historically it is a commodity that swings wildly detached from any happenings of the USD. I would not use it alone to make generalizations about USD. It is a very dirty peg as stated

Oil sell off was very predictable IMO outside of some black swan geopolitical explosions. I continue to avoid until I see some real pain in the sector

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-accuses-us-bullying-bessent-183959409.html Argentina just one of many places in Latin America where the battle for influence between China & U.S. is occurring This provides more context behind Scottie B's $20B move

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/right-wing-europe-dd4f1156 Reform is coming...one way or another...don't try to fight the Will of the People.

https://www.dw.com/en/eu-seeks-us-trade-concessions-by-doubling-steel-tariffs-and-cutting-quotas/a-74275476 Funny how EU officials have begun imitating DJT…too bad those European steel firms still have to figure out a way to make “carbon neutral steel” (whatever that means…)