Dalal.Holdings

Good find. Those graphs are telling. Definitely not "like the Flu". And the sudden spikes reveal that this virus was not "spreading for months" in these regions, but rather there was a sudden surge in cases. Many assume the denominator of CFR is underestimated, but the numerator is also underestimated in many measuring attempts (a lot of amateurs don't account in the delay from onset to death for example). This is another indicator we may be missing certain deaths from covid (eg. deaths at home). Hard to parse through these things, but excess mortality is definitely occurring for all causes. For one, when hospitals in hard hit areas are full of covid patients, other patients will experience worse healthcare...which can increase mortality in those groups. A lot of noise and uncertainty with a pandemic that looks an order of magnitude deadlier than the Flu. In my book, that means precaution is warranted.

Gregmal: Exhibit A in "Often Wrong, Never in Doubt"--fools of randomness. No wonder these guys love Trump--he resembles them to an uncanny degree! Loves attacking those who called it right and his memory problems border on critical dementia (helps himself feel better about being often wrong though). On top of that, I love hearing his views on women, minorities, dying New Yorkers, etc. A real class act! His posts continue to detract value from most of this forum--the "best of the best" of CoBF! Can't shake the sunk cost fallacy of his ardent support of Trump over the years. I hope you & your kind are active participants in the market for sure.

There goes that lone example from the “do nothing” crowd. But what do you expect from people who lack any sense of objectivity and scientific literacy? Often wrong, never in doubt. I think at this point, the Swedes have done OK in my opinion. As long as their health care system isn’t crashing in Stockholm, where the population density is highest, their approach isn’t really a failure. They try to get herd immunity at an acceptable cost (in terms of lives). So far, by their own judgement, that is still the case and who are we to judge otherwise? Swedes may not fare as poorly as some regions--Wuhan, Italy, NYC due to lack of density/different lifestyles, a functional healthcare system, robust sick leave policies, and a population that is highly compliant with social distancing. Even S Korea was able to avoid full lockdown due to underlying positive societal factors (+widespread testing/contact tracing and compliance with self quarantine). Unfortunately not too many other places have these things going for them.

Really? Flattening the curve strategies do not incorporate in their projections a positive black swan emerging: a vaccine, effective treatment, or heat/humidity reducing spread/severity/mortality (positive black swans) because this is impossible to predict. They also do not necessarily incorporate extra deaths from healthcare overload (which would be very hard to estimate). Hence our nonsense peddlers seize on this as "proof" that flattening has no real benefit. They are left out of models because it is impossible to model black swans (even positive ones) and extra deaths that result from overload. Just because they are left out does not mean these are not very real benefits of flattening (they are). As the bank example I used--if everyone goes to the bank to ask for their deposits all at once vs over time, you will see a real, nonlinear difference as the bank will fail in the fmr scenario. Again, I am not going back to square one (arguing about benefits of curve flattening which should have been settled 6 weeks ago) and coming down to the level of our great nonsense dwellers here...

Typical liberal elitist hollywood guy. Why doesn't he focus on issues relevant to me like Hunter Biden or Biden's sexual assault accuser? Biden only has 1 accuser which is very suspicious to me--most innocent men have 25 accusers like that Harvey guy. And Burisma has more of an impact on my life than Jared Kushner choosing how to distribute ventilators or Ivanka telling gyms to reopen. Time to tune into Hannity where I can get the news that actually applies to my humble life.

Lol. This somehow proves models are useless? Reminder to self: refrain from responding to nonsense peddlers.

There goes that lone example from the “do nothing” crowd. But what do you expect from people who lack any sense of objectivity and scientific literacy? Often wrong, never in doubt. I'd revisit the deaths/mil number in 16 months and it should be similar across most of the countries. The area under the flattened and peaked curves are about the same... No one is arguing the area of the curve is different. The area under the curve will be approximately the same, but flattening and delaying peak prevents healthcare overload (which would lead to more deaths and more area under the curve), allows to buy time for positive black swan (treatment, vaccine, warm/humid weather) to emerge. If a vaccine or treatment emerges, the flatter curve is better and ends up with a much smaller AUC. That’s one thing you are discounting (in addition to consequences of ICU/vent/healthcare overload). That's why I say revisit in 16 months, when all those factors would have played out, instead of them being model assumptions. I'm sure Sweden has many qualified health experts too and a prediction model. For some reason, they concluded that their approach is the best course of action. Only time will tell. Why 16 months? Let’s revisit in 10b years during the heat death of the universe. /arguing nonsense

There goes that lone example from the “do nothing” crowd. But what do you expect from people who lack any sense of objectivity and scientific literacy? Often wrong, never in doubt. I'd revisit the deaths/mil number in 16 months and it should be similar across most of the countries. The area under the flattened and peaked curves are about the same... No one is arguing the area of the curve is different. The area under the curve will be approximately the same, but flattening and delaying peak prevents healthcare overload (which would lead to more deaths and more area under the curve), allows to buy time for positive black swan (treatment, vaccine, warm/humid weather) to emerge. If a vaccine or treatment emerges, the flatter curve is better and ends up with a much smaller AUC. That’s one thing you are discounting (in addition to consequences of ICU/vent/healthcare overload). Put another way, it’s everyone going to their bank to withdraw their deposits all at once vs slowly over time. The area under the curve is the same, but in one of the scenarios, the bank fails.

There goes that lone example from the “do nothing” crowd. But what do you expect from people who lack any sense of objectivity and scientific literacy? Often wrong, never in doubt.

Obviously no one knows where things end up, could just be confirmation bias for bears, but look forward to reading all the senility speculation about Carl too. Carl seems to be practicing something called precaution... I guess once again he is taking an opposing stance from his boy Ackman. Let's see who prevails this time. Some good commentary from Elliot. https://www.docdroid.net/kfBxxVh/elliot-letter-april-162020-perspectives-paul-singer-elliott-pdf#page=9 Was definitely fun watching some of this stuff as it happened and “overreacting”.

For the “models were wrong” crowd (i.e. perpetual nonsense peddlers): A lot of limitations w the IHME model (for example would miss any second waves, dumb decisions by policy makers to reopen too soon), but it’s done a heckuva job so far. Source:

The Art of the Deal: Georgia reopening succeeds = win for Trump Georgia reopening fails = win for Trump There is only upside to be had among his supporters, no downside for Mr. "I take no responsibility" President. He is a master puppeteer I'll give him that.

Another famed investor has gone "senile": https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-25/icahn-says-stocks-are-overvalued-virus-may-cause-downdrafts Obviously no one knows where things end up, could just be confirmation bias for bears, but look forward to reading all the senility speculation about Carl too. Carl seems to be practicing something called precaution... I guess once again he is taking an opposing stance from his boy Ackman. Let's see who prevails this time.

You've officially become the house troll here. Greg’s not wrong. Dalala already said “I’d rather vote for a guy who stutters.” I’m waiting for the Biden voters to say “we’re voting for the lesser of two evils.” This is a joke right? I vote for a non-sociopath President over a sociopath any day. It's not a lesser of two evils. The man can only put self first and that's dangerous. Romney, GWB, Bush Sr, McCain, whoever would be much better and have demonstrated the ability to put country before self. It doesn't mean these people are selfless monks, but when push comes to shove (i.e. a pandemic that kills 50k Americans), they can put aside their self interest for a bit. BTW: https://www.businessinsider.com/women-accused-trump-sexual-misconduct-list-2017-12 Remember, he "grabs women". We all know how the game is played by Trumpers: - We need to see all her e-mails or Obama's birth certificate, but it's ok if we don't see Trump's tax returns. Oh! look at this thing in her e-mails! Oh, his birth certificate does not seem to be an original copy! Let's spend all our time scrutinizing this person and not Trump. - Sure, he puts his son in law and daughter in roles in the WH that they have no business in where American lives are at stake, but did you hear about Hunter Biden's role on some Ukrainian company's board? Outrageous! - Biden has 1 sexual assault accusation that should end his candidacy, but Trump's 25 accusers are all full of it! Double standards for Trump's zombie followers. Trump's offenses tend to be >10x worse, but he always gets a pass because "he tells it like it is" (unless of course he is being "sarcastic")! Back to the politics section for you!

WHO is a science led org. When there are a lot of unknowns, scientists like to use the phrase “there is no evidence that...” but it is important to remember that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. On the flipside, there also isn’t a whole lot of evidence that you can get this twice if your immune system is functional. So really, we know nothing. But they are erring on the side of caution. These scientific statements confuse a lot of lay people. That’s why you see a lot of brilliant minds in places like here jump on the “see! WHO said no evidence of human to human transmission in mid january so this proves they did not think it was a big deal!” That’s nonsense due to misinterpretation of the “no evidence” statement by scientifically illiterate lay people. For a long time, there was “no evidence” that smoking led to lung cancer because doing a study that proves such an association is very very hard. Same thing with this outbreak which is only like 4-5 months old, so we have a lot of absence of evidence and the only thing that makes sense is to invoke the precautionary principle in such a situation.

It gets better and better... Airline tickets purchased by taxpayers for flights that are never taken--all for the oil industry. Who would have thought. Surely electing a guy incapable of acting beyond pure self interest to the Presidency would have no negative consequences!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-usa/u-s-weighs-taking-stakes-in-u-s-energy-companies-other-options-mnuchin-idUSKCN2262TY?il=0 It’s not socialism if it helps with the reelection campaign. Drill baby drill!

They work by drawing people into arguing with their nonsense. Let me help him out: “That guy on 5th Ave sort of had it coming anyway and Trump said afterwards that he didn’t really mean to shoot him—he was being sarcastic with the gun, so it’s not the big deal you guys are making it”. That’s the pathology we are dealing with.

Yep. Yep & yep. Our choices are abominable but I'd vote for a warm turd running against Trump. False equivalence fallacy (equivalent to "both sides are bad!") here... Anyone with a moral compass capable of putting something else above self interest would be preferable to what we have now. Biden and most other non-sociopathic humans have him beat by miles. Rather have a President who stutters than one who recommends bleach injections.

Meanwhile, spin doctors like Scott Adams are claiming that Trump was actually making a sophisticated medical point, and Trump himself basically says he was talking about it, but was kidding. Kind of like if you deflect all the blame for your handling of the pandemic to the WHO and Governors. Either way, it’s a win-win.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-trump-tries-to-walk-back-disinfectant-suggestion-claims-sarcasm.html Not to be worried, he was being sarcastic. Making a joke. Kind of like what he’s done w the Presidency and what you want in a President during a pandemic where 50k Americans are dead. Teflon Don strikes again, followers will lap it up “dur, he was just joking can’t you see that u libtards!”

De Blasio is terrible and should be removed from office. Many democrats agree with this. I wholeheartedly agree with this. People died because of the mayor’s incompetence, and many more may die if he holds his parade. However this is something you will never hear Trumpers say about Trump though—as he famously said: he can shoot a man on 5th ave and they will be at his side. He has undying loyalty of some. He is not an idiot—he made the 5th ave claim knowing full well the truth—he is a master puppeteer (works on many people) and you can indeed fool some of the people all of the time.

Yes, I see it now: intravenous bleach infusion, bombardment with UV rays, gamma rays, etc etc and patients will be straight up cured! And his apologists were out defending hydroxychloroquine because this guy was behind it... We now proudly celebrate ignorance in our culture--and you see the manifestation here on this forum and in the population at large. The consequences of said ignorance unfortunately does not merely fall on the ignorant, but spreads to the wider population via collateral damage. Oh well. I read this and and first i thought that cwericb and dalas were having a bit of fun. ...But then I saw the video. What.... the fuck?! This is no joke. The real joke is that some people keep rationalizing/defending this guy’s conduct. 50K dead. Not much else to say.

He's very talented at manipulating situations/people to his advantage. He's not just rocks for brains. He knows how to fool segments of the populace and I'd say does a pretty good job of it. Must have helped somewhat in the casino business.

Yes, I see it now: intravenous bleach infusion, bombardment with UV rays, gamma rays, etc etc and patients will be straight up cured! And his apologists were out defending hydroxychloroquine because this guy was behind it... We now proudly celebrate ignorance in our culture--and you see the manifestation here on this forum and in the population at large. The consequences of said ignorance unfortunately does not merely fall on the ignorant, but spreads to the wider population via collateral damage. Oh well.