Dalal.Holdings

I'm actually pretty optimistic, not based on a return to complete normal, but rather a return to normalcy. I think the frequently posted Hammer and Dance article describes nicely what can happen. If you take the Hammer and Dance article as the medium-term objective, you just need to look for ways to reduce the impact on lives. Based on results in Asian countries, everyone wearing masks dramatically reduces the R0. That makes the dance phase much easier. What's more, as each week goes by, we add to our knowledge of how to treat this disease. If we can reduce the transmissibility through masks and reduce the severity and length of time in hospital through new treatments, then we're basically back to the flu. So, I think there's a decent chance we're in a normal--with the addition of people wearing masks--by July. Ya and wouldn't it be shocking if Trump was at least partially right? That we may be blowing this a bit out of porportion? I am not ruling that out. Well if Trump is right, he gets all the credit. If he is wrong, it's Obama's fault because he wouldn't be President if it weren't for Obama. He has successfully passed the buck to his predecessor (among his followers). Real 8-D chess over here. Really how he has operated since birth--he gets all the upside, others the downside (the buck stops...). Kind of like what he wants for the oil industry.

That is a form of nationalization and will never happen and you know it. The GOP, whenever in power (good times will keep on going brah), will always erode any government intervention/taxes/share of the profits (e.g. Trump tax cuts during growing economy). So over the long term you end up with capitalism for the upside, socialism for the downside.

It is bullshit and amusing at the same time how rapidly "free market" principles are (temporarily) thrown out by their most ardent proponents. They'll be back to talking about free market principles and personal accountability once things are better. Trump looking to bail out his core voters--does not have any principles, and only motivated by self interest.

This is a simplified way of looking at the problem. Not everyone spreads it to 3 other people. Some people spread it to 10 people (super spreaders), some to none. What happens to R naught when there is a global pandemic, everyone limits social contact and starts wearing masks? I estimate it goes downwards on average. There are some diseases that are very contagious that are very hard to contain like Measles, but I think with masks and the right social changes, Covid can be stemmed significantly over time. And hopefully that buys time for healthcare system and effective treatment/vaccine.

Yes, Obama's fault. Or maybe it was the GFC before him that didn't become a depression thanks to him, but left "People angry, on drugs and/or have no/low paying jobs.". The 1930s were much worse than the 2010s.

Thanks--agree it's a reset mode, but think it's just the beginning. The resetting will be painful for the industry for a long while and IMO Trump cannot stop it. I'm sure the super majors are hoping to pick at the carcasses of all those shale firms down the road as well. Only after wide consolidation may more "rational production" take hold out of U.S. oil output, but will take time.

Well, we have finally come full circle, folks. Trump an inadequate President? OBAMA'S FAULT!

It all comes down to curve flattening and healthcare overload prevention. Furthermore, leave time for potential positive black swans (summer reducing spread/severity, effective treatment, vaccine development) to emerge.

Agree guys, clearly this is a thread about "Energy Sector" and Trump has nothing to do with going ons of energy sector these days so please stop discussing conspiracy theories and let's talk about something more relevant like Hunter Biden and Burisma or her e-mails. Energy is "on the brink" and we must save it -- all those junk bond creditors are worth saving for the sake of America. We all know oil industry cannot survive Chapter 11. After all, bankruptcy will erase all those wells and drills and we'll have to start anew. They must be bailed out, it's all a natural part of the American capitalistic process.

Nah, they want us to have capitalism when times are good and socialism (bail out, subsidies, handouts) only when times are bad. Who would've predicted that a commoditized, cyclical industry would experience times of pain? Then later they can go back to moaning about food stamps and welfare when things normalize for them. And don't get them started on renewable energy subsidies, socialist pig!

Exactly, Dalal.Holdings, This is key to understanding. I think it applies to many European countries right now [, meaning we're "not there" yet.] Yeah John--I wonder: shelter in place/lockdowns may not eliminate exponential growth, but merely reduce the rate of compounding for a while as there are people who do not/cannot comply with lock downs and thereby spread it among themselves (so it's still exponential, but reduced rate of growth). So the slope may be reduced on a log graph, but the trend still linear... However, Italy does seem to be (finally) flattening which is an encouraging sign.

Excuse me if I misunderstand your post--always takes me a few reads of your posts and even then I'm not 100% sure...lol Trump has already exercised his "heads up" announcement and tweets and it moved oil up substantially. What more can he do with tweets/announcements that doesn't shatter whatever shred of credibility he may have left? Aside from the oil industry colluding like a cartel to take a hit and all cut production (and actually abide by it), what else is going to fill the 20-30 million barrel/day hole? And Russia says they'll only cut if U.S. cuts, but: The thing about U.S. producers is it is a capitalist system unlike many others and colluding/price fixing *like a cartel* is not legal. Furthermore, if U.S. drillers go bankrupt, their wells do not stop pumping--they keep pumping for the creditors and/or shareholders in bankruptcy and they will keep pumping after CH 11 because now the breakeven cost of that well is lower. Drilling may stop, but the existing wells will likely keep producing. I don't see how U.S. cuts production...Trump (in addition to crude imports) would have to ban/tariff refined product exports to achieve this? But lots of second/third order negative effects from doing so.

Strong work! Helps a lot w estimating prevalence. However we must also account for the fact that recovered patients will also test negative (unless antibody testing done), but I assign low probability that recovered cases would shoot that 0.3% up drastically, certainly not up to 30% or greater (remember, herd immunity takes 60% or more).

Q: How much in tariffs would he have to add to "foreign oil" if U.S. already "~energy independent producer"? Just close off foreign imports altogether? Would it matter though as U.S. demand for oil has also cratered? Will WTI trade at a wide premium to Brent and will refiners get hosed? Or will refiners pass those costs to Americans who, though financially struggling, will willingly buy $3-4/gallon gasoline to fund the welfare for the oil industry so it helps DJT's reelection bid? Wow, you guys keep coming up with ways to totally destroy the US-Canada relationship eh? Well first off, the US is not energy independent. It normally uses up about 20 mbpd and lately production was around 13 mbpd. Around this time though 13 mbpd should probably be enough though. But this stuff is not the same and refineries are highly geared to the grades of oil they receive. PADD 2 is highly dependent on Canadian crude. So if you shut down imports you probably get a glut in PADD 3 and have a serious shortage of product in PADD 2. Well done. Now the price skyrockets and you have gasoline shortages in the mid west. There will be other distortions but that is probably the biggest. Economically the import ban would work like a tariff. Basically the consumers subsidizing the oil companies by paying more for product. WTI will trade at a serious premium to Brent of course. The's probably gonna be derivative bombs that go off on balance sheets, though who knows where. Socially a tariff or import ban is gonna be a shit show also. Picture Bernie sanders on coke in front of every microphone he can find looking like he's gonna pop a vein. Canada is probably gonna go ahead with a national energy program. Trudeau the second finishes what daddy couldn't. Might even join OPEC . OPEC membership is surely to increase for that matter as producers are gonna look to better coordinate in case of events like these. None of it is good really. Yeah agree--a lot of hidden second or third order effects--"bombs" as you note--that could cause a tariff/import ban to be very harmful. That being said, never underestimate the likelihood of this guy doing whatever it takes to boost his chances even if it means hurting other nations/industries/individuals who don't matter for his reelection and destroying longstanding norms. And why blame him? It's all in the self-interest Ayn Rand playbook that we all cherish. We want a POTUS who puts self first. Period.

Q: How much in tariffs would he have to add to "foreign oil" if U.S. already "~energy independent producer"? Just close off foreign imports altogether? Would it matter though as U.S. demand for oil has also cratered? Will WTI trade at a wide premium to Brent and will refiners get hosed? Or will refiners pass those costs to Americans who, though financially struggling, will willingly buy $3-4/gallon gasoline to fund the welfare for the oil industry so it helps DJT's reelection bid? US refineries right now export a lot of gasoline and other products and they would certainly get hosed. They probably would have to reduce throughput and certainly the increased input cost would be passed on the consumer for gasoline, diesel, heating oil as well as chemical products. To avoid influx of crude byproducts he would need to add tariffs for those as well or probably destroy these industries that use/produce them. Useful way to think about this. IMO, tariffs will not do much overall to WTI (without inflicting lots of damage on others in the chain) and Donnie knows he's pretty much powerless. He'd better hope all the nice things he's said about Putin and MBS pay him dividends when he needs it. Demand has cratered (not due to the price of oil), but tariffs would pass the cost onto U.S. consumers who, though getting some loans/assistance, would not necessarily tolerate increased gas prices in an election year. Transparent what he is doing trying to prevent losing votes in the shale patch. Almost like he's focused on this problem and relegated some of the virus related tasks to his VP/staff/daughter/son-in-law. A POTUS who spent a lifetime operating purely out of self interest gonna operate out of self interest.

Sir my graph IS the mortality rate, on log-graph, it clearly shows a decreasing slope therefore no longer exponential. This looks like declining slope to you? Optimistic. Italy much clearer as far as flattening. Hey meiroy, I just revealed a bad trait of mine. I don't read carefully, I agree with you all EXCEPT italy are exponential...... let's just let this drop. Oh it was me you were responding to. Agree, seems like miscommunication and as of yday, mortality in those except in Italy seemed exponential. For completion's sake, let's also remember that it's not just a decline in slope, but a non-linear (curved) line on a logarithmic plot that would indicate non-exponential growth. So, the line could change slope, but if it remains linear on a log graph, it's still an exponential trend, but with a lower growth rate.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-04/trump-says-he-d-use-tariffs-if-needed-to-protect-oil-industry Q: How much in tariffs would he have to add to "foreign oil" if U.S. already "~energy independent producer"? Just close off foreign imports altogether? Would it matter though as U.S. demand for oil has also cratered? Will WTI trade at a wide premium to Brent and will refiners get hosed? Or will refiners pass those costs to Americans who, though financially struggling, will willingly buy $3-4/gallon gasoline to fund the welfare for the oil industry so it helps DJT's reelection bid?

Sir my graph IS the mortality rate, on log-graph, it clearly shows a decreasing slope therefore no longer exponential. This looks like declining slope to you? Optimistic. Italy much clearer as far as flattening.

To be fair, it’s not just the US, 68 countries have banned exports of PPE.. https://globalnews.ca/news/6769162/canada-medical-supplies-coronavirus/ Germany blocks truck full of protective masks headed for Switzerland https://www.thelocal.com/20200309/germany-blocks-protective-masks-headed-for-switzerland More important question is not whether US will provide masks but why a so-called advanced nation like Canada cannot even produce enough masks for its own people.. It's one thing to ban exports from your country to another, but another to do this: U.S. gets to reap the benefits of having global corporate powerhouse firms like 3M that have moats and sell all over the world. Actions like this undermine those companies and longstanding relationships with Germany/France (NATO allies which are not valued these days). As was mentioned on here, actions like this should merely encourage Germany and France to cut out 3M in the future and grow their own in house firms.

We must have a different definition of "exponential" I guess Spain: new cases per day: stable number since March 24th Germany: new cases per day: stable number since March 26th Italy: new cases per day are clearly going down now. also, today for the 1st day Italian IC's were less full than they were the day before. US still exponentially going up, I'll give you that. But obviously European semi-lockdowns are working. Guys, the data is clearly on the web in a few clicks. I screenshotted them to make it even easier. Italy is clearly not linear in the log-graph which means it is flattening. I watch the US graph everyday and wait for tell-tale signs that the same is happening to the US. Pretty much--All except Italy continue to look exponential to me on mortality, but what do I know? Been posting "useless" exponential graphs since February. Turns out they were not that useless...

More isolation from long time allies: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/827321294/german-french-officials-accuse-u-s-of-diverting-supplies All because POTUS needs to "save face" and can't ask China for help. Actions like this are really going to help America in the long run. These (former) U.S. allies will welcome China with open arms.

Just taking a bit longer than expected to funnel stimulus money to them. Don't worry, they're good for it.

LOL! Putin is our friend! He is sending us high quality N95 masks. Just wait! They are fully reliable and filter out tiny particles do not worry. And he's going to cut oil output like he says! Us GOP members used to hate Russia, but now we love them since they helped Donnie become pres! A total 180! I do not trust China as much as European allies/Canada--true allies to the U.S., but like it or not China is largest trading partner with U.S. and during a crisis like this, relying on their help works better than insulting them ("China Virus"). Once this crisis is settled, we can go back to fighting for fair trade/patent protection (which China is a repeat violator of).

Who cares if Cuomo thanks China for sending 1,000 vents? U.S. isn't going to become communist by saying "thank you" when someone helps us during dire times. NY governor had to go to China to get around scum Kushner. That's the key fact to note here. One step at a time. Isolate America, take away allies. Divide America, exploit partisanship. Conquer America, elect friendlies to leadership. Same playbook in Canada/Australia and globally. https://unwatch.org/china-joins-u-n-human-rights-panel-will-help-pick-experts-on-free-speech-health-arbitrary-detention/ And who is "isolating America" and "taking away allies" more--China, or the guy telling 3M not to send masks to U.S. allies? The guy who likes trade wars? The guy who gets along better w Putin than the leaders of European nations/Canada/NATO? Your strategies to undermine America are more consistent with the propaganda war that's been waged by Russia against the U.S. (to elect Trump, well documented by intel agencies) as opposed to China. Divide America and isolate it indeed. Mission accomplished--for Putin.

The first quote has no reference whatsoever to a travel ban. How is the 2nd quote in any way reversing the first quote. The first quote continues to stand in it's own quite nicely. Because deflection is the name of the game--her e-mails, Benghazi, etc. Except much more comical this time around when trying to excuse Trump's glaring shortcomings in responding to a real world pandemic. Trump apologist brigade upset about perceived criticism from "opposition party" about the China travel ban, but don't acknowledge that the "opposition party" effectively wrote DJT a $2 Trillion stimulus check in an election year. Largest stimulus ever. How would Mitch McConnell have treated Obama if the tables were reversed and a pandemic happened in early 2012? I think I know: -McConnell