Dalal.Holdings

That's wrong. Japan's birth rates have been significantly lower than U.S. birth rates for a long time. And unlike Japan, the U.S. has always had ample immigration. Japan culturally does not want to become a nation of immigrants. So birth rates are not as relevant for the U.S. as for Japan.

It really has nothing to do with Moody's, but more-so what's happening with the supposedly "small government" Republicans who occupy the White House and Congress. You've seen interest rates respond the past months to this long before Moody's. The market is witnessing: The "small government" Republicans want to: - Cut Social Security taxes on already wealthy boomers - Refuse to meaningfully cut entitlements - Want a $1 Trillion military budget - DOGE didn't actually cut jack - Cut Tariffs that now won't actually raise much revenue - A few blue state Republicans want to eliminate/reduce SALT ....and meanwhile it's clear Bessent wants to issue long duration bonds by the boatload.... Well the market is factoring all that in and sending rates higher. And if all the spending increases and tax cuts occur, yeah inflation of USD is the only solution to solving the debt problem over time (Buffett was very focused on currency devaluation as a topic this year). So why the hell would you lend anyone at 4.5% in USD for 30 years even if there was no default risk ?

Pointing to a single example -- Japan -- which suffers from chronic deflationary forces like crumbling population and using it to draw conclusions for the USA is likely to get you into trouble

I moved the convo over to the VAL thread

Here are your own words: The answer is no, they can't because they don't have enough free cash flow (and in the past 3 years it's less than zero). In my experience, waiting for false dawns doesn't work well with investing

Every time I see someone talk about VAL FCF and buybacks, I go to check the cash flows statement in the quarterly/annual SEC filings and I see either 1) negative FCF (true for three years in a row now: 2022, 2023, and 2024 10-Ks) or zero buybacks (true for most recent 10-Q). Every. Single. Time.

Free Speech for the elites in Europe, not the citizens. And some people wonder why the right wing parties are gaining steam…

Yes, I was banned, but your posts on here that besmirch an entire nation of people is totally kosher. If you want to believe no Rafales were lost, you can continue doing so. I hope you don’t invest in the same way for your own sake

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/buffett-would-be-worth-67-billion-more-than-musk-if-he-hadn-t-donated-it-all?srnd=homepage-americas If Warren hadn't begun donating his wealth decades ago, he'd be worth close to $400B today (and rank #1)...

This part of the article makes it seem like Warren is talking up Abel's ability as an investor...strange because Ted and Todd were supposedly going to be in charge of that. Or maybe he's saying Greg will be in charge of acquisitions

Yep, and the more they attack AfD/National Rally/Reform UK via unscrupulous means, the stronger these movements become. They are anti-fragile in many ways. Trump was convicted on bogus "falsifying business records" charges and the people saw through the b.s. immediately and it gave credibility to his "witch hunt" charges and claims of dems weaponizing the justice system against their political enemies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/thyssenkrupp-holds-guidance-despite-slump-in-earnings-cash German industrial stalwart reports not great results. Will Germany actually unload its fiscal cannon or is it too divided to do anything about its long term economic stagnation? Its auto industry looks toast in the 21st century... Merz refuses to work with large AfD bloc in the Bundestag and he couldn't even get elevated to chancellor with his own coalition the first time. Does he even have the votes in the Bundestag to make the fiscal expansion a reality ?

I hate to break it to you, but not everything is a WW2 reenactment and not everyone you disagree with is Adolf Hitler. But yeah, I understand that this type of basic level thinking allows elections to be cancelled in Romania and Marine Le Pen to be convicted and AfD to be spied on in Germany. The justification for it is "we can't let the 1930s happen again". I know a lot of people are having a hard time accepting the reality that it is not the 1930s all over again which precludes them from admitting the massive mistakes their "mainstream" European leaders have made and keep making.

The best thing is watching these losers like Starmer who was all for jailing people for anti-immigrant speech now doing this tap dance: It’s absolutely hilarious to see these guys echo what they labeled as “far right” just 6 months ago. These guys are true idiots and it’s probably too late for them

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-starmer-under-pressure-farage-tightens-migration-rules-2025-05-11/ So in the UK you have Reform UK, in France you have National Rally, and in Germany you have AfD. All three "far right" parties are gaining ground in the major powers of Europe... Sounds like pretty soon these parties won't be "far right" but the mainstream... And you have Starmer, Merz, Macron pivoting on everything from immigration and the economy in a last ditch effort to save their skins...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/success-of-chinese-jets-against-india-raises-alarm-in-asia

I agree. Indian news shows look like trash and it’s a shame they have no one questioning the government. At least in the U.S. whenever there is a President, there is a well established opposition media ready to critique their every move (from conservative Fox News to liberal CNN/NY Times/etc). In India, they are all parroting what the government says and even Indians on social media are spreading some seriously false & biased information about the conflict.. If the Chinese tech has advanced enough to challenge the most sophisticated western gear, it’s only a matter of time until Russia, Iran, and North Korea also procure them (not just Pakistan). That should make military planners around the world: Europe, S Korea, Israel, S Arabia, etc all nervous in addition to Japan, USA, Australia, Philippines, etc

https://www.ft.com/content/ff46ca13-a64d-4ba1-833e-1bb348880aec Military analysts around the world will be studying what took place that day. Did IAF totally mismanage the operation? Did the Rafale run out of fuel? IAF doesn't have a lot of refueling capability. Did they not have enough radar coverage of the battlefield? They've had a chronic shortage of AWACs which they have not solved thanks to crushing Indian bureaucracy... Or, was the J-10 armed with PL-15s absolutely superior to the Rafale ? Sure to make a lot of people nervous. Except, of course the IAF and Indian media who are patting themselves on the back and seem to be content to be mired in a state of dysfunction:

@John Hjorth here was my initial comment that seems to have triggered you so easily: China may not be where the LVMH and Hermes brands make stuff, but Chinese consumers have very much been crucial consumers of the stuff. It has been a massive tailwind for the industry the past two decades. China has demographic issues now (as well as potentially economic and geopolitical) that may remove that tailwind. If you can't handle comments like these about your investments, maybe it says more about your confidence in the sector. I am not sure why you are so easily offended. Perhaps it's a language barrier or perhaps it's something else... If you find my comments to be so egregious, you are welcome to no longer respond or ignore me. Good luck.

It sounds like China had replaced the European luxury automakers with their own EV brands. Does the same happen to handbags? Who knows? All i Know is, the past decade or two has been great for this industry as vast number of Chinese became wealthy enough to afford these products. It was a massive tailwind. I’m not sure about the strength of the tailwind going fwd. LVMH and Hermes have EVs of a quarter Trillion euros each…how big can these “exclusive” luxury brands get ?

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/dior-unit-put-under-court-administration-italy-over-labour-exploitation-2024-06-10/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/pamdanziger/2024/06/24/italian-court-reveals-diors-unethical-supply-chain-and-puts-other-luxury-brands-on-notice/ https://runwaymagazines.com/2780-dior-bag-manufactured-by-illegal-workers-for-57/ They may be “made in italy”, but some have been exposed using Chinese firms using cheap Chinese labor Sorry to burst your bubbles, but slowdown in China has been a key reason these stocks have trended down now over many quarters.

we are coming off peak globalization where these brands produced cheap products in cheap countries and sold it at huge markup, often to Chinese consumers looking for western cachet. I'm not sure if those tailwinds will persist going fwd. More like headwinds...

Found this video from a former French Fighter pilot very valuable…it seems western defense firms (esp Europeans) have massively underestimated the progression of Chinese capabilities. The loss of the Indian Rafale very close to its base raises a lot of questions, but it’s an embarrassment for IAF nonetheless. Western military R&D needs to immediately refocus on building equipment that can counter increasingly sophisticated Chinese equipment that will soon find its way into the arsenals of Pakistan, Russia, Iran, North Korea, etc…

You just had the first real engagement between western (French Rafale) aircraft and Chinese J-10s with India losing at least one Rafale to a J-10 using Chinese Air to Air missiles. Chinese defense stocks rallied as a result: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-07/china-s-defense-stocks-are-big-winners-in-india-pakistan-clash Looks like the Indian Air Force botched yet another engagement with Pakistan (like in 2019 when its ancient Mig-21 pilot was captured) and I’m sure the French & Dassault are not thrilled with the PR… There should be heads rolling in the IAF, but given Indian Media just spreads Indian propaganda, few people will probably demand reform and accountability in the Indian Air Force. Already, many people are in denial about the embarrassing loss. Not even sure the French stuff can make it versus China’s J-10 which is built on stolen F-16 schematics with more advanced technology built on top

https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-down-two-indian-fighter-aircraft-us-officials-2025-05-08/#:~:text=While Reuters reported on Wednesday,were used in the shootdowns So…let me get this straight: India “retaliates” against Pakistan and bombs some random targets while Pakistan destroys at least two Indian fighters with Chinese jets and missiles in air to air combat thus proving that Pakistan’s military has some real teeth thanks to cozying up with China and perhaps even superior fighter jets and missiles compared with the IAF. Sounds like Pakistan won that battle handily. Quite embarrassing for India. I mean compare that with the military abilities of a country like Israel and it’s not even close. While Pakistan arms itself with high tech Chinese gear, India dithers in forming a close alliance with the U.S. and instead continues to rely on second and third rate defense hardware from France and Russia…