Dalal.Holdings

Dalal, I don't think he is smart enough to know the difference between CFR and IFR. So he might actually believe this B.S. Like I said, we leave the “best of the best” of this forum to do what they do best: the blind leading the blind! Often wrong, never in doubt! I do not respond to such individuals any longer on this forum, they earn the consequences of their thinking.

everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid, Don't misquote me. dont have to dipstick. your hubristic pronouncements are all over this thread Keep up the good work, you treasure you.

The goalposts are moving so fast it's hard to keep track. Reminds me of TSLAQ. In the middle of March it was speculated repeatedly that "covid was here widespread for months" and there were hundreds of thousands/millions cases undetected "months ago" (i.e. that would imply January). Now they're saying they said the whole time that it was widespread in the middle of March, not January. Gee, isn't that interesting. It was those of us on here from the end of February pounding the table saying it was exponentially exploding here in the U.S. starting in March and people like Cuomo who said we needed to lock down in March because cases were getting out of hand. Clever attempt to move the posts. Oh well. It's not my job to inform and correct the record. Not my idea of time well spent. Keep on keeping on.

everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid, Don't misquote me.

Oh, why did the Fed make us take on too much leverage over the past decade! Who knew that leverage can be a bad thing! Let’s see who makes it out of this stronger—PE with high leverage or BRK with cash on hand... just as a data point, BX just said they took no money from the government, don't plan to, and have ample reserves to support their companies. Well thus far they have been ineligible to take money due to limitations on leverage. However lobbyist groups which partly represent BX among other PE clients sure are working hard to change those rules: March 31 (they weren’t explicitly pushing for it then): https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-private-equity-firms-lobbied-congress-treasury-in-bailout-push.html April 23 Bloomberg article (but they are looking to loosen up the rules now!): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/private-equity-to-get-squeezed-out-of-another-stimulus-program I highly doubt Blackstone will publicly say it wants the money. It will instead work in the background through its lobbyists to change the rules in its favor...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/private-equity-to-get-squeezed-out-of-another-stimulus-program Sounds like all these “sophisticated” PE investors now want some assistance from the government. Here’s a gem: Oh, why did the Fed make us take on too much leverage over the past decade! Who knew that leverage can be a bad thing! Let’s see who makes it out of this stronger—PE with high leverage or BRK with cash on hand...

I believe (Just my opinion and worth nothing) that he will wait it out as no one no how deep this mess will get and make sure Berkshire survives, then if any is left he will buy. Who knows If the banks have enough reserves for the coming storm. As someone said "Patience" "The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting." And “All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone.” Clearly some people are incapable of the above and believe the buying opportunities that will come with this crisis are already gone. And it's only been 6 weeks of this crisis...Reveals pretty much how hard it is for people to follow through with the quotes above.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/top-health-official-says-he-was-ousted-over-trump-touted-drug There seems to be a disease that is endemic. No, I am not talking about Covid. I am talking about the epidemic of pride in ignorance that afflicts this administration and its supporters. There is unfortunately wide collateral damage beyond the administration & its supporters. And people ask how dare we criticize this administration w moves like this? Please.

The best part is watching them squirm when their lack of knowledge is exposed. It's pretty hilarious, in a "laugh so you don't cry" sort of way. Crazy how those in charge get a free pass. “But their intentions were good.” So it really doesn’t matter if they burn down the house with their stupidity. Actually, the stupidity is to be celebrated; and the more stupid the better. And then we are told that all this stupidity is just ‘common sense.’ It is explained and twisted in ways that reek of Animal Farm. George Orwell is smiling from the grave right now at all the irony. The problem is when we all share "the house" with them... Similar problem with the environment. Oh well.

Especially considering that the Fed now probably holds a good chunk of these bonds...

A leader willing to take on blame? Actually accept the downside? Refreshing. A stark contrast to "I take no responsibility" (no skin in the game) type leaders. I know which type of leader I vastly prefer during a real life crisis.

FYI this lends more color here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/negative-oil-prices-are-literally-breaking-traders-risk-models CME Group Inc. said late Tuesday that the clearing house will switch the options pricing and valuation model to Bachelier -- a model named after the famous French mathematician -- to accommodate negative prices in the underlying futures and allow for listing of options contracts with negative strikes for a certain set of crude oil and energy products. The change is effective Wednesday and will remain in place until further notice. Holy cow--negative strikes.

Perfect cop out. Now shift blame to the states. Trust has been lost. The scientists got on their soap box, pointed to their models, and made their predictions of doom and gloom. Nowhere in the 1-2million death model stated “If we shelter in place” then we will see the outcome that we have seen (empty hospitals, death toll 10-20 times less than expected). They are definitely saying that now, but it feels like an after-the-fact revision. And now there is a doubling down .... it will be later. You must have missed the whole "flatten the curve" thing being passed around by the scientists, doctors, and epidemiologists. It was pretty hard to miss. Anyway, mission accomplished--flattening the curve allows some the luxury of now saying "see, we overreacted'.

The Trump playbook works brilliantly on the intended audience. No surprises here. The burden of lockdown/vents/testing/etc falls to the states (even tho FDA/CDC are fed agencies and don't you dare go to S Korea for tests, but ask my son in law for permission if you want vents) while the benefits of opening up go to Trump. No downside, only upsides for Trump. Have yet to hear any of his supporters cast any criticisms about his response. The worst he gets from them is "it's out of his hands and there was nothing he could have done anyway". Asymmetry!

That was the argument he gave for buying IBM. Except IBM had a strong moat in the corporate sphere when he got into it. Thanks to AWS and MSFT, that moat rapidly eroded. And Buffett did what he does when the facts change: he changed his mind and exited (likely at not much of a loss when dividends factored in).

Yep--if this forum were around in 1999, you'd have heard the same things. He "just doesn't understand modern businesses". Ironic for a place named CoBF, and if this is how people here are thinking, then what's the hope for the wider investing public? Meanwhile, please let me know how "value investors" or hedge fund managers performed during the last decade in comparison. We can look at performance before fees just to help the hedgies out a bit.

Too bad--a lot of folks will be misled into believing they have immunity/prior exposure when it is merely a false positive... On the flipside: Depending on testing dynamics, repetition of a test even with high false positive can be useful. If you test positive two times but on the third negative with a test that has low PPV but high NPV, then you know you likely do not have antibodies and are not immune. If these finger prick tests become widespread and have high NPV (which is possible), they could be useful in someone after a series of repeat testing...

I am pretty much on board with this at this point due to incompetency/federal leadership vacuum.

This schmuck wants to throw a parade—Like the one Philly threw during 1918 Flu... :o His stupidity knows no bounds.

This seems to be a point lost on many investors - especially younger investors - who have been riding a decade-long bull market. Downward price action does not make something "cheaper." Downward price action only makes something cheaper if the fundamentals persist or improve. And as you note, the fundamentals are getting worse with each passing day. What happens when more and more companies start including "going concern" warnings in their public filings? But but but...stocks look cheap on a forward P/E basis when I set 2021 EPS = 2019 EPS... After an incredibly agonizing 2 weeks, the bear market clearly ended on March 24, 2020. Plus, the Fed said the recession is cancelled. What a trying time it was for all of us. Glad I got to experience a full blown recession in my life--and one of the worst on record: the Great Recession of March 2020. Another notch in my belt! If Warren didn't buy, it must be because he's senile and outmoded! Bring one of those hedge fund managers who crushed the last 10 years in...you know that guy. What's his name? Dalal, I have very much appreciate led many of you posts in this forum. Thank you for you contribution. One day we’ll get rid of the senile old man and have someone in charge who really knows how to pick stocks like the pros. He can call into CNBC and have a complete meltdown and tell all of the viewers that the world is ending. And then a few days later let us all know that’s everything’s actually fine and he made a bunch of money shorting the market. Buckeye--now that would be a sight. However, we know this 89 yo guy who lives in Omaha has leagues more class than the NYC self-acclaimed masters of the universe!

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/21/840341224/nih-panel-recommends-against-drug-combination-trump-has-promoted-for-covid-19 But did they consider all the anecdotes and "common sense"?

What happens to your S&P EPS projections when companies that spent years buying back stock (buy high): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/u-s-airlines-spent-96-of-free-cash-flow-on-buybacks-chart Are then forced to issue stock when times are bad (sell low): https://seekingalpha.com/news/3562845-united-airlineminus-3-after-39m-share-offering Another win for corporate execs who get to take home millions regardless!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3562819-interactive-brokers-reports-margin-loss-on-crude-oil-contracts Looks like IBKR took (relatively small) hit due to customer losses: What are the margin requirements for futures holders going to be going fwd?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/opinions/trump-institutions-autocrats-kasparov/index.html Pretty much the exact opposite of what you’d want from a President in a crisis like this. SMH.

"The direct use of physical force is so poor a solution to the problem of limited resources that it is commonly employed only by small children and great nations" --David Friedman, "The Machinery of Freedom". Not only do we need to spend trillions to secure these resources, but we also need to prevent investment in renewables because that’s #socialism. Trump bailout for oil workers incoming in 3...2...