Dalal.Holdings

Some people are conflating their hardship of the 2008-2020 time to Obama, that's for sure. Just because he was President does not mean he caused the hardship. Correlation doe not imply causation. When Obama walked into the Oval Office on January 2009, we were in the midst of the largest recession since GD (that Republican guy before him was in charge leading up to it). The GFC might have more to do with people's hardships leading to vote for Trump than Obama. In the 1930s, there was a lot of radicalism in Europe and the U.S. due to the Great Depression. Similar story for 2008-now. Easier to blame Obama, I get it.

Oh really, now Bill Clinton's accusers aren't women? It's the particular woman that they don't believe, not all women. Isn't Harvey Weinstein a huge democrat? Crosby too, I'd guess. Didn't they also cancel that senator comedia and Louis CK and a bunch of other lefties? Weinstein was a hollywood guy with huge liberal connections (it's easy to cast hollywood elites as in bed with the dems when it's convenient and then "not relevant to dems" when it's also convenient). Al Franken was a Dem senator forced to resign due to Me Too by his own party (dems). Some people think Obama "race baited" because of things he did like go down to SC and sing "amazing grace" after that church got shot up by a racist. Or Obama pointed things out like discrimination of African Americans every time a black kid got shot by the cops on camera for minor infraction. These people equate that to Trump saying "both sides" were bad after a racist nut ran over a crowd in Charlottesville as equivalent to the above from Obama--should tell you pretty much all you need to know. False equivalence fallacy at its finest. They love "all politicians are bad, so might as well have Trump because everyone else is no different". The nuance is lost...

Grand Unified Theory in action. Note how the entire GWB administration with GOP in control of Congress for much of it is left out of history (8 years)... Another personal reminder for me to avoid the General Discussion thread as much as possible. Kicking myself for posting here this AM...carry on with the high quality analysis.

Likely not overcounted. NS is relying on excess mortality numbers but not adjusting downwards for traditional completeness estimates and not adjusting downwards (or upwards) for non-COVID death trends. The former is more important. Recent weekly reports of excess mortality are adjusted upwards for incompleteness, by determined by the %s of reports completed in a certain time t, compared to prior time t-1. This method assumes that excess COVID deaths are prevalent in all incomplete geographies equally - which is most likely not the case. Thanks, I know this is your area of expertise. These excess death numbers are not without issues either, but they serve as a good sanity check for the COVID-19 related death numbers . They revealed that the U.K. for example is undercounting (they admitted such pretty much), but Belgium (which has pretty bad looking numbers ) is over counting (since they count suspect cases as COVID-19 death). Something else to think about re: excess deaths. Are deaths due to crime, auto accidents, Flu much lower than prev yrs? If so, deaths attributable to covid might be even greater than # excess deaths. Some will say that is balanced by people dying early from other medical conditions that are being neglected in hard hit areas. It’s not clear, so excess deaths might be the best proxy.

False equivalence fallacy works wonders on the populace...you see it easily: Hunter Biden nepotism! (While Jared & Ivanka run pandemic response)! Biden has 1 accuser of assault! (Trump has over 25!) Her emails! His birth certificate is fake! (We haven’t even seen Trump’s tax returns) On the face of it, it’s pretty impressive how this guy’s antics work so well on some people all of the time. He surely has some great talents in manipulation... And amusing to see the Grand Unified Theory of Trumpers: “Trump’s incompetence is the fault of liberals/Obama! We wouldn’t have him if it weren’t for them! Forget the fact that I voted for and supported/support this guy!” Or more generally, The reason we have X is due to them liberals! I was never wrong! I take no responsibility!

The problem is we had a leader who initially didn’t want to spook markets during an election year (what happens when you have a sociopath who only puts self interest first). There was also and continues to be high level incompetence, and putting people in charge who are not qualified, but loyal to POTUS like Jared boy. Garbage in, garbage out. Some state leaders seem to be more competent and less driven by pure self interest though.

So this guy who goes around calling other forum members idiots is adding what value here?

Did we drain the swamp yet? His hacienda indeed. And his zombie followers fall for it (thinking he's looking out for the 'little guy') every single time. Now prepare to watch this whistleblower's name dragged through the mud by the zombies willing to do their master's bidding. You’re voting Biden right? ;D Yeah. If he makes Hunter in charge of doling out vents/PPE when 70k Americans are dead, you can come back and gloat. Till then, you got nothing valuable (other than extreme levels of false equivalence fallacy) to add to this topic.

Did we drain the swamp yet? His hacienda indeed. And his zombie followers fall for it (thinking he's looking out for the 'little guy') every single time. Now prepare to watch this whistleblower's name dragged through the mud by the zombies willing to do their master's bidding.

So basically, the conspiracy theories being peddled by Trump and eaten up by his followers. LOL. ;D How convenient, but not surprised that a Trump supporter would try to mislead by distorting the truth. You never asked me about the Wuhan lab theory. For the record, I don't believe it. The plain meaning of Taleb's tweet is clear: when he says "IYIs on Trump," he's talking about you. Nah, he's talking about people who underestimated him, but I'm not going to pretend to speak for him. I'll let you (try to) do that. Again, also conveniently leaving out Taleb's criticism of Trump's Wuhan conspiracy. Edit: Darn, broke my rule about not responding to nonsense dwellers.

If you have any facts to share on COVID19 or the response to the crisis, go for it. Otherwise, you're the Trump propaganda bot. What is a China propaganda bot? Is this one? “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter. “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!” If you have to ask, you've failed the Turing test. What ever happened to 'infidels'? What's up with the newfangled name calling? Such clever propaganda -- all criticisms are just lies from the infidels. You are falling for it head over heels. Yes, anyone who disagrees with them is a 'bot', 'traitor', 'not a patriot', etc. Yet they're the ones who want to deny states suffering from crisis aid and they're the ones who put a sociopath in office that will "destroy the system". They came over from the politics section section because they can't stand by while their dear leader is criticized for his terrible management of the pandemic! Sunk cost fallacy! Trump bag holders... Taleb on the above victims of TDS: ". . . victims of paranoia can find a narrative that impeccably matches all facts, people collectively fall prey to these shared delusions. 'Intelligent' people can be more vulnerable Remember the Iraq WMDs or IYIs on Trump" I'm not delusional on why Trump won and why he has a fair shot of winning again. I fully understand why his followers will follow him off a cliff. He is quite talented at what he does. Funny that you left out the first part of Taleb's tweet: So basically, the conspiracy theories being peddled by Trump and eaten up by his followers. LOL. ;D How convenient, but not surprised that a Trump supporter would try to mislead by distorting the truth.

I love how some people have been convinced that "crashing the system" will be good for them, or will somehow lead to what they want to see happen, rather than just the opposite (a society with an even bigger, more corrupt, more incompetent government and fewer freedoms is the most likely outcome of a big crash, not a small, efficient, honest government and more liberty). They're the people who con artists and charlatans just love. These are the folks who quickly call others out on “being un-American” and people who “are lazy and don’t know how to work hard and it’s their fault they’re poor”, but now it’s “the system has failed me, let’s burn it all down”. These are the folks who would praise Trump defaulting on U.S. credit obligations.

Yep, I can imagine it pretty easily—they’d be roasted by Trump supporters because Trump always gets a pass and he knows this (as he showed with shooting on 5th avenue example). Double standards for Mr. “Always looking out for the little guy” Trump.

The main takeaway from BRK annual meeting: old folks have lived through a lot more stuff, esp when it comes to markets. Do not underestimate the wisdom that comes from this...

Singapore: 18 deaths/19,000 cases Deaths not growing any faster... Is it all attributed to "healthy" migrants?

Good talk, and right on the money with the lack of price discovery, a large part due to anchoring bias. So Sam Zell, Buffett, and Icahn are cautious on the sidelines and on the other side you have folks like Bill Ackman. Take your pick...

If you have any facts to share on COVID19 or the response to the crisis, go for it. Otherwise, you're the Trump propaganda bot. What is a China propaganda bot? Is this one? “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter. “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!” If you have to ask, you've failed the Turing test. What ever happened to 'infidels'? What's up with the newfangled name calling? Such clever propaganda -- all criticisms are just lies from the infidels. You are falling for it head over heels. Yes, anyone who disagrees with them is a 'bot', 'traitor', 'not a patriot', etc. Yet they're the ones who want to deny states suffering from crisis aid and they're the ones who put a sociopath in office that will "destroy the system". They came over from the politics section section because they can't stand by while their dear leader is criticized for his terrible management of the pandemic! Sunk cost fallacy! Trump bag holders...

So let me get this straight. The states that pay more than the receive (let's call them the makers) tend to be large and blue. The states that pay less than they receive tend to be small and red (let's call them the takers). The makers are more affected by this because it turns out that density matters in how a virus spreads. But the makers and the takers should get the same amount on money. Moreover the takers should get a lot more per capita because they are smaller. In addition the takers who don't need the money for health care because they have low density should feel free to spend the money on whatever they want i.e tax cuts (preferably on the rich) as is their custom. Did I get this one right? But please feel free to lecture me more about corruption, China and the fisting of the common man. The Trump supporters claim they are against welfare and food stamps. That's not true when it comes to themselves. They come up with all sorts of excuses to get welfare/handouts for themselves, they just call it by a different name to preserve their pride. The red states routinely take in more from high GDP blue states, they can't face that reality though. Let's not forget the GOP's favorite handout--farm "subsidies". What do you call Trump's efforts to bail out the energy sector and subsidize it? Welfare, just not by name. What do you call the massive defense budget/corrupt contractor relationships? More welfare. I will leave aside other Trump welfare programs for his supporters: the trade war and his anti-immigration stances are meant for workers who can't compete in the global economy. Yes, China engages in unfair practices and illegal immigration should be curtailed, but the broader purpose of anti-globalization and anti-immigration is beyond that--it's also to partially subsidize those who can't compete. Didn't R's use to say "if you want to be successful, just lift yourself up by your bootstraps and work hard, son!" Guess that don't apply anymore.

“All presidents r bad” is the new “both parties r bad”. False equivalence fallacy much? I don’t remember when Abraham Lincoln said he wouldn’t have assaulted that woman because she wasn’t attractive enough... Trump fools ordinary folk the most—what do you expect from an Atlantic city casino/reality TV guy. Too bad those ordinary folk think he’s their guy—cutting corporate taxes to the bone is his largest fiscal accomplishment. “New NAFTA” will not stop worker pain. His OPEC “deal” will not save oil workers. And coronavirus will hurt poor/non middle class the most. And this recession will be another huge hit on these folk. You actually think a guy who hangs out with Steve Mnuchin, Tom Barrack, Carl Icahn, Roger Stone, etc has ordinary folks’ interest at heart? His ability to fool the common man is his greatest talent.

Sons/daughters living with elders could make things worse. This was one of the theories as to why Italy had such a bad outbreak--elderly in frequent, close contact with younger relatives.

Do u remember when we had Presidents who weren't sociopaths? Pepperidge Farm remembers (it was only pre-Jan 2017)...

Singapore continues to have exceptionally low mortality (1/1000 of confirmed cases). This could be due to: 1) Recent rise in infections (deaths could surge in the coming weeks) 2) Aggressive testing (leading to large # of confirmed cases), contact tracing (limiting spread to vulnerable groups) Or, more optimistically: 3) Protection in the host in humid/warm (tropical) climates due to factors such as enhanced innate immune protection of lung--which has been shown with Influenza: https://www.pnas.org/content/116/22/10905 If #3 is true, one would hope for a drop in mortality during the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere. Also if true, perhaps this would be the ideal time to catch it and (hopefully) develop immunity. This is all speculation at this point.

3 trial results came out the same day: NIH ACTT trial - discharge in 11 days vs 15, mortality 8% vs 11.6% in Remdesivir vs control arms ( so reduced morbidity, second order effects on reducing overburdened health care systems) https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19 SIMPLE trial - 5 days and 10 days use showed no significant differences (so can be used in shorter course). IDK why they did not release any data about the control arm in this one, I thought it had it... https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/4/gilead-announces-results-from-phase-3-trial-of-investigational-antiviral-remdesivir-in-patients-with-severe-covid-19 China Remdesivir trial 237 patients data - no significant mortality benefit https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext As far as the twitter poster goes, one point well taken is that the next population to study in trials would be earlier start of treatment (now that we have same day per testing) and high risk non-hospitalized patients (somehow delivering at home maybe). Sarilumab phase 2 data also came out, with phase 2 outcome met and phase 3 trial focusing on critically ill patients only where potential to reduce mortality is being seen. Thirdly a lot of attention is going towards the prothrombotic effects of the virus as well as proning early. Stacking all of them and what we know about the virus after all this time, I think mortality will be lower in the future, although a little bit lower not a lot lower (just my opinion). The problem with early therapy using Remdesivir is that it's very hard to manufacture. If you are opening up Remdesivir to not just severe cases, but mild/moderate and earlier stages in infection when symptoms are not that bad, that potentially opens up millions of potential patients as candidates for therapy. As we know, ~80% of people don't get to severe. You would now be treating a lot of those 80% with the drug instead of reserving it to just the severe patient group (because you have little idea which patients will end up with severe manifestations and which ones will not early in the course of covid). Meanwhile, Gilead is only going to have achieved 140,000 courses manufactured by the end of May. They are hoping for ~1 million # of courses manufactured by end of yr I believe... https://www.wsj.com/articles/gilead-to-expand-manufacturing-of-covid-19-drug-remdesivir-11588281598

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-02/buffett-stays-on-the-sidelines-amid-market-tumble-as-cash-climbs

The market has provided ample opportunity for those who missed this in March to cash out with the S&P now where it was in October 2019. There should be no valid excuse for these people if they lose their shirts.