Dalal.Holdings

So what you are saying is that we have a lot of false positives out there. That would mean that the denominator of cases is potentially smaller than we think it is and the mortality is higher. That would not be reassuring to me.

No it starts to increase March 1st, now that is giving a generous 14 day time to death! So we still have to wait some more? I've attached the graph here. You seem misled by the x-axis labeling. I guess you are entitled to your own facts if you choose... It should be noted that in addition to real COVID cases, something else that can explain the spike in these numbers is awareness of COVID outbreak leading to more people going to see healthcare providers who otherwise would have powered through a non-COVID URI illness on their own.

Take some pain upfront and get out quickly or drag your feet and the cumulative pain will be much worse... "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" A useless saying (to some).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/health/coronavirus-statistics-undetected.html So we have a virus with 1) a long incubation time, 2) many individuals who catch it having mild/no symptoms (i.e. not knowing they have it unless they are tested for it), 3) easy spread via respiratory droplets, and 4) high mortality in certain subgroups such as elderly. Essentially it is a deadly virus for certain subgroups with a rapid rate of spread in the wider population. Though a majority of cases will be mild, the sudden surge in severe cases overwhelm healthcare systems which already have low capacity. This explains why we have seen what we have and why widespread testing is necessary--ie do NOT limit tests to high risk/symptomatic people, but let those healthy people who have it know they have it so they stay away from others/elderly. Most people may in the end get this, but if you concentrate all infections in a short time period (weeks--months), then the surge in severe cases (though a minority) will overwhelm. There are people arguing with anecdotes that it has been in the U.S. in large numbers for months--never underestimate the power of anecdotes (to mislead). We are merely weeks behind the Euro countries.

I agree, give out a 1-1.5k per month loan at zero percent interest with a 3 year re-payment plan of some type. Or we could let people learn their lessons from overspending and to save? Or we could all model ourselves after our commander in chief and never take responsibility for any of our bad decisions in perpetuity. Oops, threw in some politics but can’t help it when we blame ordinary folks for this crisis. As after 2008, the bailouts will flow to the non-ordinary folks while the little guy gets rekt thanks to mentality like this.

It is only after markets crash and the economy takes a huge hit that some people will appreciate how “cheap” strong, preventative measures taken in February of 2020 to stop the spread of this would have been. Some people will never appreciate that fact. Can someone explain to me the benefit of the FDA denying this Seattle ID doc way back in January the right to test patients? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.amp.html

But this is where I'm trying to reconcile. You're saying that you're not seeing it. But evidence suggest that flue like cases are increasing significantly, but we don't know due to what. So I'm wondering if this is just a precursor of things to come, and you might not have seen it first hand. And I can't imagine that we are testing dead people for the virus - I would definitely save the testing capacity for those alive and potentially contained at this moment... So if that's the case, then are we undercounting BOTH deaths and people infected?? I never said I'm not seeing it. I currently don't have testing avail other then the protocol I just said came over from DOH. How can I diagnose someone without a positive Covid-19 test? I am seeing what you posted in that tweet. High increase in flu like symptoms with negative flu. I have made that clear I think multiple times haven't I? No they are not testing bodies at the morgue. You asked about testing people who come in with flu like symptoms. I don't believe I have heard of any cases of DOA(have you?) covid-19. Today, if you have someone on life support/ventilator anywhere in America I would hope to god its known whether or not they have Covid19. I don't mean to put words into your mouth, but I think you have said that a lot of people are infected and we're not seeing the deaths, so the conclusion is that CFR is lower than what's out there. So I'm asking - is the disconnect with what other countries are seeing that both infected and deaths are undercounted (vs. just denominator being undercounted)? Just another thought on this. That tweet said flu like illness spiked March 1st right? Assuming those were all new cases we are now 15 days out. If your only self quarantined for 14 days then it could be broadly assumed that your chance of dying is high in 14 days right? That being said is it reasonable to assume there should have been a HUGE spike in deaths? Its been 15 days right? How many in NYC 3? False. They spiked in the days leading up to March 12 as the graph clearly shows. Literally took 2 seconds to confirm.

Tweet taken down. Crossed my fingers it was all untrue.

Strongly agree.

Why would the Democrats bail out Trump here? The Dems will pass whatever they think will help, and the GOP will take it or leave it, and then face the voters. Anyone who thinks big business shareholders are gonna get bailed out by the Democratic controlled House in an election year...please write puts. True dems have control, but dems have wanted infra spending. They may not want to bail out Trump, but if this becomes a systemic crisis they will have to act. In Sept 2008 when Lehman failed and Obama was debating McCain, Pelosi approved Bush admin bailouts (after it came up to vote for a second time).

They should do infra. But they can't really do infra or anything economy boosting until the pandemic has passed. OK, they can actually throw money on producing tests and building ICU units in 2 days like China did... They could throw money at delivering meals to people who are out of work because of shutdown and quarantine (assuming there's a way to do it safely). Possibly would cost less and deliver more than just cutting the rates. BWDIK. Exactly--healthcare infra. Maybe subsidize delivery boys with sterile gloves on for groceries/restauarant to keep those places in biz. Problem is that Trump-Pelosi relationship has soured, but in a crisis might be repairable.

Monetary Policy has hit its limit. What we need is fiscal spending on the order of 1940s--why not? Gov't can borrow at like 1% for 30 years and spend on infrastructure, etc. That might be what actually causes inflation to occur in the end.

Yes, the experts are right. This is going to be awful. Sounds like he's in touch with an intensive care doc at the hospital dealing with the worst of the worst of this in the United States. I hope this is an extreme case. I don't want it to be true...

I really hope this is not true... If we expect that infections in the United States are recent (ie. orthopa's theory about millions having this for months is false), then sudden increase in ICU patients/mortality will be seen 2-3 weeks from when people caught the infection. That means it will first happen in Washington State, then NY northern suburbs/parts of CA....then other places throughout... It's only Mar 15th and most infections in U.S. likely are new...

Exactly. The virus is really getting going and there is a lag of, say 6 weeks, until you see the deaths. There is widespread, undetected, uncontained community spread in the US. Canada is seeing that when we test people coming from the US. Major parts of the US will look like Italy shortly. Canada is probably a week or two behind the US. Q: if you start with 1 case and it doubles every 3 days, how long until we actually notice it? It will take many doublings until we feel it and news picks up. Furthermore if mortality is in single digits, it will take even longer for us to notice it. This has been here since January but exponential growth starts slowly with small numbers until they snowball and you can no longer ignore it. See my Berkshire example. To think that just because there were a few cases in Jan implies there were millions in the U.S. at that time is a major major stretch. Ok so we will say it doubles every 3 days, so its been 2 months. Thats 20 doubles? So your comfortable with saying there reasonable suspicion there are 1,048,576 infections in the area alone where this gentleman is with no apparent stress on the healthcare system. And that being said there is still the rest of the state to be counted and so far 60 deaths? Yes the power of doubling time is a sight to behold, ain't it! You're right if it were 3 days (which is a very aggressive estimate), it would be ~250k right now (not 1M) since first case Jan 20. In reality the doubling time is longer. And your original claim was that millions have had this for months was it not? The real world is quite messy--esp when dealing with small numbers. For example, what if those initial few cases back in January were mostly hermits who stayed indoors and played video games all day? The doubling time would be much longer than if they were instead yoga instructors. With exponential processes like this, there is a lot of randomness earlier in the course because there are fewer individuals involved. Once you get a critical mass, the trend gets smoother. But obviously you don't care about thinking about compounding on a higher level like you don't care about the Berkshire example. Your experience and that of the healthcare professionals you are in communication with trumps this kind of low level analytical thinking. Futures open in less than 40 min!

Better answer for him: "If you truly think the whole world is wrong and you are right, the futures market opens at 6 pm EST"

ROW confirmed infected just surpassed mainland China today. See attached chart.

That bat must've flown all the way from Wuhan to LA. If cases double every 3 days, it will take 18-21 days just to go from 1 case to 100 cases. It doesn't matter when the virus was "first here". It was first in China in November 2019 but hardly noticed until January because snowballing takes time.

Exactly. The virus is really getting going and there is a lag of, say 6 weeks, until you see the deaths. There is widespread, undetected, uncontained community spread in the US. Canada is seeing that when we test people coming from the US. Major parts of the US will look like Italy shortly. Canada is probably a week or two behind the US. Q: if you start with 1 case and it doubles every 3 days, how long until we actually notice it? It will take many doublings until we feel it and news picks up. Furthermore if mortality is in single digits, it will take even longer for us to notice it. This has been here since January but exponential growth starts slowly with small numbers until they snowball and you can no longer ignore it. See my Berkshire example. To think that just because there were a few cases in Jan implies there were millions in the U.S. at that time is a major major stretch.

I think it's much higher than 2%. The reality is many people are sick and not dying of pneumonia - I would assume a portion of posters on this very thread are experiencing symptoms as well as the rest of the population, or had experienced symptoms in Jan/Feb and recovered. The first reported US case was January 21. This is an incredibly fast transmitting virus. The odds are, cases existed prior to Jan 21. And further, the odds are that the spread of this virus across the US was much faster than official reports claim. This is due to lack of testing i.e. lack of timely, accurate information. But ultimately, I agree w/ the principle of: better safe than sorry. For the obvious reason, and for the secondary reason as it provides a "trial-run" on a global basis for future pandemics. I am about 20% cash btw. If I didn't suffer from biases like anchoring and all that stuff I would think about 1/3 cash is the ideal amount right now. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191 Question for you guys as I havent seem to be making any friends swimming against the tide! Above is the NEJM article on first case of corona virus. This is what I don't understand. First US case was January 20st, with 4 days of symptoms and as I have read this is a very fast transmitting virus. Some have said this is very fast, some fast, symptoms take a while to show up, agree. Please reconcile this for me. It has been exactly 2 months since this gentleman returned to the US from wuhan China. Is it out of the way to assume that there was community spread with this gentleman? 4 days of cough, fever, flew on a plane? Lets just work on that premise. Now I have become lost with all of the projections, graphs, charts, etc. Pick whatever model you want. My question is this: Its been 2 months since that virus was officially detected in a known area. I'm not aware of this so please help. Is there overload in the area where this gentleman was? Are there people dying? What does it look like? Are they running out of ICU beds? How is california? They were not far behind and have a HUGE population! I know there can be a delay in symptoms but isnt 2 months long enough for this virus to really get going, especially with lockdown, social distancing just happening now? The consensus for the origination of coronavirus is late November in Wuhan. It did not become a big deal until 2 months later. The way exponential growth works is that when you start with small numbers, it takes time for them to snowball into significant numbers. Once significant numbers are attained, then the growth becomes impactful and felt in a very real way. Berkshire Hathaway was a company not on too many people's radars in the 1960s and 1970s. Eventually it became impossible to ignore.

Incorrect. OK, sure. Let's exchange data Italy new cases: March 11: 2313 March 12: 2651 March 13: 2547 March 14: 3497 Italy deaths: March 11: 196 March 12: 189 March 13: 250 March 14: 175 What's yours? Don't get bogged down in the weeds. Updated statistics for Italy March 15 (which is not over): Italy New Cases: March 15: +3590 Italy Deaths: March 15: +368 :-\

Want to re-emphasize this great post. Stochastic simulation is a powerful way to understand what measures you can take to curb this disease progression. Anyone who says "I know what will work!" without running real simulations or consulting data from other countries with N>1000s is poking around in the dark. We cannot afford to listen to such people. This shows that social distancing (even with 25% of people not compliant) works even better than quarantines. If you combine social distancing with mass testing and quarantining of known positives (until they are "recovered"), it is likely to work even better.

South Korea's approach was very similar to Wuhan's from what I heard. Lots and lots and lots of testing and temperature taking everywhere, separating family members who are infected rather than at-home quarantine, etc. It wasnt just extensive testing, there was a lot of shutting down of things and shutdowns too, Real quarantine is essential. Self-isolation means you will just infect family and close contacts. South Korea did not have to impose lockdown as strict as Wuhan and Northern Italy. People self quarantined once they knew they were positive to reduce further spread. With or without self-isolation, the chance you infect people in your household is already very very high (after all, you are going to end up at home at the end of the day). The thing about testing people and letting them know they are positive is they can quarantine themselves from other people outside their household. The household catching it is a foregone conclusion, but reducing spread to new households is what we should be after.

There's a simple explanation: reliance on anecdotes over objective data, narrative fallacy, etc. Happens to a lot of clinicians because they see patients and extrapolate from those handful of clinical encounters to the larger population. Anyway--the rule is that if lots of people's lives are on the line, you should err on the side of caution ("prepare for the worst"), not assume "everything is going to be fine". Ie. board up your house even if it is 98% likely to be out of the hurricane's direct path. That's the precautionary principle in a nutshell.

Another (useless) graph for the "there's nothing we can do anyway" crowd. FYI South Korea achieved this WITHOUT A LOCKDOWN, but merely extensive TESTING. And South Korea's population is similar to Italy's. Source: