John Hjorth

How many years is it, since Mr. Buffet & Mr. Munger had an exchange at the AGM about the size of the next large acquisition? [Two years, three years, or perhaps even more?] What were those gents then talking about? [if I remember correctly the talk was in the triple digits of USD B by Mr. Munger, combined with a good deal of speculative ramblings, based on "Who knows what we'll do!" - [& mind you!]] - If I remember correctly, Mr. Munger implied something in the three digit range of USD B. Where are we now? -Please put away those something USD ~20 B for potentiential insurance claims in a stressed situation, which leaves you around USD ~100B in acquisition capacity. - - - o 0 o o - - - What is there not to like, if you're patient? [patience certainly required!] - - - o 0 o - - - Somehow, I think of it as a geriatric at the age ~90, surveilling and scouting an African Savannah, dressed [naturally] in Khaki Safari dress [with a Khaki hat to provide shadow for the face], scouting the area ..., - moving the sunglasses up on the hat, lips tight, stone face & snake eyed - just pretty un-emotional, & just waiting ... . -You better stay out the line behind him, because his gear is not really [any longer] an elephant gun, more like a Bazooka! No need to get smoked and burned while standing behind him!

Related to Wabuffo's post # 48, we had a poll about a year ago - actually on January 9th 2019 - which documented that a large part of the active voters in that poll was Berkshire investors, and then again a quite large part of the voters with large amounts of capital [as percentage] allocated long Berkshire. At least to me personally, it's quite clearly documented by many of those investors here on CoBF [observed by reading their posts - simple as that], that the orientation and line of thinking among those board members is truly long term. It's to me also evident, that at least a part of those board members are accumulating Berkshire shares on an ongoing basis [as net savers]. So they may have taken this poll, but they actually don't care about a year of relative underperformance for Berkshire relative to the market [because of long term thinking], perhaps even instead considering it a relative opportunity for accumulation of more shares.

lol! - I like doughnuts too! [ : - D]

Somehow, I understand your line of thinking, Jurgis, But then again, I don't think so. A [bunch of] real enthusiast(s) & activist(s), having the task at hand as a real calling, backed by an enormous amount of patient capital is to me the only way forward - to create the changes needed. [i don't think the US political system will ever get this solved.] -And yes, they are to me needed [based on what I've read about it here on CoBF].

You can start a 3/5/10 year return poll. ;) My previous simplified polls: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/performance-vs-index-5-years/msg260236/#msg260236 https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/performance-vs-index/ This is indeed an interesting discussion! - Thanks Dynamic & Jurgis! [ : - ) ], As I already mentioned in one of my early posts in this topic, this topic & the poll contained in it is "just for fun", - for more than one reason: 1. Polls are indeed fun - because they "trigger" posts from people with low posting frequency [who have done well], 2. The sharing of experiences shed lights on details that have been going on, that perhaps have been outside of the general scope of the discussions going on here on CoBF, 3. The sharing of approaches and lines of thinking - no matter the time horizon - to me always provide some useful insights to relate to. [it doesn't mean we all have to engage individually], 4. Outlier returns are not to be underestimated [if, negative, they can actually take you out of the game - almost for good, with no real possibility to recover, if really bad, or, if positive, they can provide some laurels to rest on, perhaps at least for a period]. - - - o 0 o - - - In short, I'll take on to set up those 3/5/10 years returns polls here on CoBF! - I'll just need some time to do it.

roger, Yes, Hilti is a wonderful company with wonderful products. Here, it's highly respected for the quality of its products within the construction industry.

Great reply, Cardboard!, Happy New Year to you.

24% pre tax for 2019, and that's with a Berkshire position YE2019 at ~34%. [To me, Berkshire advanced ~13% in my functional currency, in USD Berkshire seem to me to have advanced ~11 %.]

gfp, Yes, I actually took the time yesterday to open the spreadsheet provided and shared by Dynamic to look at it. Holy Molly! [0_0] - And people on Twitter have started to whine about why Mr. Buffett isn't reducing the position! - Let's see how it plays out.

At around 6:30 PM my local time, I added yet another 50% on the upside in poll options. Lonely outlier on the upside, you are hereby free to edit your vote. [Note to readers : As the poll creator, I can't see who has voted what - just in case you may think about it.] - - - o 0 o - - - Unfortunately, there is no practical way here on CoBF to expand the span to the downside. [No way of rearranging poll options, leaving votes already cast untouched.] [As if a return of less than minus 50% wasn't "enough" [ : - / ].]

That's awesome, Eric!, Happy New Year!

We all have our own way to define what we report here. So be it, and that's OK. [it's just for fun - what really matters for all of us - and we all know that - is the long term track record of the outcome of what you do with your capital/AUM].

It's this time of year! [ : - D] -Let the show & show-off begin! [ : - D] - - - o 0 o - - - I've widened the span in the poll options materially compared to last years poll [span now 175%], and made it more fine meshed than last year - if you may be "outside ballpark" in the poll, I sincerely hope it's in the positive end!

hasilp, First of all, welcome here on CoBF, and happy holidays. Please don't be a stranger going forward. - - - o 0 o - - - The answer to your question is, that several of the legal entities within the group of Berkshire insurance subs are heavily over-capitalized compared to regulatory capital requirements, which provides more [regulatory] freedom with regard to capital allocation than what you observe for the majority of other insurance companies.

Merry Christmas to all CoBF members!

Whoa whoa whoa... you mean to tell me that as an established fund manager with a real business you don’t live in a giant mansion paid for by extracting fees from people?? All jokes aside it’s refreshing every once in a while running into someone in the financial industry who isn’t a totally selfish piece of shit only concerned with stuffing as much money as possible into their pockets. Cuz it’s like 98.5% of them. Personally, I have to agree with Greg here, BG2008, Your personal story for your past and youth is very well documented by you here on CoBF. I would argue that exactly that - and the way you've managed to handle the hardship during those years - is today likely the greatest strength of yours. With regard to "door envy", perhaps you may have a choice. [ ; - ) ]

Danish minister of Industry, Business & Financial Affairs Simon Kollerup - reply to the parliamentary business committee - Reply to the Danish Parliament about contra-cyclical capital buffers for banks within the EU [December 19th 2019]. It's unfortunately only available in Danish [AFAIK], - please just focus on the table included in the document. [Translation help here : "Aktuel buffer" [<- Danish] -> "Actual buffer" [<- English], & "Vedtaget buffer" [<- Danish] -> "Buffer decided" [<- English][at some point in time in future]]. To me, the document is quite striking. Capital buffers raised in the Nordic countries [where - at least to me - the systemic risks are lower than in - at least - some other parts of Europe]. In short, there seem to exist in Europe an inverted correlation between perception of systemic risks in the national financial systems among European countries and what's actually going on. - - - o 0 o - - - - How is it, that I'm not surprised. [-The last idiot is not born yet.]

I'm not 100% sure what you're getting at here, but if I am reading it right this is neither obvious nor possible. It certainly isn't on the table. The way I understand the situation, Mr. Johnson still needs to plane a knob off by a [new] agreement with EU before end of January 2020, ref. what Ms. May did. How will that activity [properly considering also the hollidays in front of us] fare on a timely basis?

Heck, it's all about patience. ATH today, and still cheap.

What does all that tell the stock pickers here at CoBF, RuleNumberOne?

While this isn't directed to me, I doubt the previous poster meant bid 49.98/ask 49.99 for bid-ask spreads. If Buffett wants to buy a full company away from the stock market, he probably needs to pay a premium, maybe in the 30% range. The ask for the whole firm being greater than the ask for a single share. Similarly, if he takes a big position in something, once disclosed (either quarterly or at 5% of target) that has the potential to increase the price making the remainder of the position more expensive. Oh, spare me.

Ohh, please give me a break. You can talk macro walls-up, and walls-down. It dosen't matter. Where are your long money?

RuleNumberOne, Please tell us all how to ride this wave, so that we make more money!

Mr. Buffett doesn't give a heck about bid-ask spreads. Nor does he care about momentum hedge funds.

Muscleman, I'm here very happy to inform you, that there actually exists - at least partly - a solution to your mental "1427"-condition. [ : - D ] Definition by exclusion of the solution here : 1. You'll not be in need of a shrink/brain twister [advantage], 2. You'll not be in need of a coach, or any other kind of advisor [advantage], 3. [1. & 2. combined : It's all a DIY-solution [advantage, -well, sort of - it really depends on you personally]], 4. You don't have to inject any substance into your body [advantage, I would say ... - It would really be a pitty to see your six-pack running on five cylinders, ref. your avatar, wouldn't it?], & 5. You don't need to take any pills [advantage]. - - - o 0 o - - - <break> Curious? - I bet you are! <end break> - - - o 0 o - - - Further triangulation of the solution to your "1427"-condition : 6. To the contrary of so many other treatments, there exists no "correct dose" [certainly an advantage, I would say], 7. 6. also implies that you can't OD on the treatment [great!], 8. With regard to dose, there is [almost, - sort of] total freedom of choice from "all shelters" [also great], but : - - - o 0 o - - - 9. The cure is - as already mentioned - only partial, maxed out to 70% of your symptoms [and that really sucks!]. - - - o 0 o - - - Here is the recipe : a. Click on "Profile", b. Next, in "Modify Profile", click on "Look and Layout", c. Next, in "Messages to display per page", increase from forum default "15" to "50" ["maximum dose" - or whatever you prefer]. - - - o 0 o - - - After that : Done. Your "1427" condition will instantly disappear, being reduced to a "428"-condition, or something like that. - - - o 0 o - - - I really hope this helps. [ ; - D ]