John Hjorth

Please let it go, gents, - at least for now, To me, right now, it's all about damage control [forward looking]. - - - o 0 o - - - Perhaps a day will come, when to discuss who's to blame for this or that [including errors of omission].

if an 80 year old refuses to isolate, it's his/her own choice. It's the same now: if someone goes out anyway, it's on them. You can't let your policy be dictated by the notion some might not listen. At least, for that 80 year old you have the leverage there's an actual health threat to that person, while most 20 year olds have a bigger chance of getting hit by a bus on their once-a-day walk to the supermarket than actually dying of this virus. minten, No, it's not. Here in Denmark, this kind of reckless behavior [perhaps inverted compared to the actual context here discussed] is countered by the Danish Epedimic Act, which has been activated about a couple of weeks ago, latest Tuesday last week it was strengthened further, to use force related to reckless behavior. Reporters here have asked for insight in the cases where this has happened [there are a few cases [ less than 5, I think] already here], but insight has not been granted by the authorities. Elder people getting interviewed to the local paper saying "The death has to have a cause" and something like that. People who have been asked to quarantine, but refuse to do so [with proof of that] goes into some kind of box, locked from outside - somehow. Period.

minten, To me, the question is both ethical and cultural. The discussion has started here in Denmark, too. Personally, I'm amazed - in a positive way - about the cohesion of the Danish society in this situation. Everybody is helping each other, each at their own very best.

Thanks, rb, Obviously people here on CoBF are looking at the same things, however conclusions on observations come out out non-similar.

Aurelius, This line of thinking is flawed. Where is Mr. Anders Tegnell's downside protection? [For him and for every Swedish citizen]?

I mean could we ever really know if the bullet killed the man, or if he happened to die from complications of hypertension just as the bullet entered his skull? Causation can be tricky after all, and we should study it further before deciding conclusively! M. Why would anyone assume the hole in the head was caused by the gun going off? People are always jumping to conclusions. The liberal media has brainwashed everyone. The real question that everyone is waiting for, did this person has covid-19? If he did, he obviously died from it. False comparison. A bullet through head will kill 100% of time, immediately. Covid-19 doesnt kill 99%+ and definitely not immediately. So you cannot assign a 80 year cancer patient to Covid automatically. At least they should check for lungs and breathing problems etc. My understanding is a whole lot of times old and sick die of "infections" but is reported to be dead of cancer/stroke, and resultant complications. Not infection (flu, bacteria etc). Type II diabetes is a good example of how silly it is to haggle about the exact cause of death when it is clear that a disease is clearly a major factor in contributing towards death. Most patients with severe type II diabetes die of other causes that are essentially a result of secondary damage from the disease (infections that do not respond to antibiotics very well, kidney failure, more cardiovascular complications than otherwise, etc). Clearly Covid seems to accelerate the underlying pre-existing conditions towards death, in particular cardio-vascular and any lung related pre-existing condition is what we know so far. I guess this quick exercise quickly explain why it's hard to categorize death rates. No doctor is going to spend time on a cold body to find out what exactly the cause of death especially when you have bodies piling up. Not true for my country [Denmark].

Thank you for elaborating, minten, I may suffer of some kind of home bias [Denmark] here, - at least here - , the numbers still seem exponential, however the "Y" in XY seems to be a bit lower than earlier. [This is about hospitalizations - hospitalizations don't lie.]

What news from Europe has been "not so good"? Naturally thowed can reply for himself, but do you think the WHO COVID-19 sit report #69 looks good with regard to Europe?

BG2008, Perhaps you should have added an ongoing cash flow stream from operations. Let it go here. I would add Novo Nordisk A/S [ NOVO B.CPH or NVO].

It's simply just not true, ref. the topic title : "The optimistic take on Covid-19". I'm still at least once a day thinking about when I'll get sex the next time. [Not to be confused with "Was the last time really the last time?" - You know, active [agressive?] approach versus resignation & capitulation.]. I've also been pretty active with regard to keeping the supply chain intact for the household with regard all kinds of groceries [food], beverages [beer & wine] etc.

Geez, & oh come on, gents, There is no need to create peer-to-peer foes individually within the CoBF community because of the situation. The whole situation is severely stressful already without that. Please, & at least, try to look ahead. Thank you.

lol! Sarcasm isen't actually your usual posting style, Viking. Almost always to the point and polite. [but this situation isen't "as always".]

Liberty & Viking, Just for reference and comparison to the US situation, below are the information pieces, guidances & calls etc. to the Danish people : Latest news from the authorities.

The Guardian [March 25th 2020] : Brazil gangs impose strict curfews to slow coronavirus spread. Well, when the Brazilian president considers the corona situation a "minor cold", one must take action one self to protect own moaty business, when a virus is picking up competition against the monopoly to kill people.

The real soldiers of today, almost everywhere around the world. Ulf Hørlyk on LinkedIn. Mr. Hørlyk is managing doctor at the Acute Department in Horsens, Region Mid Jutland. Each day he writes a post on LinkedIn about what's going on. It's an awesome war dairy. You can follow him [no need to connect] and use the translation feature to read his posts in your mother tongue. - - - o 0 o - - - Edit : Mr. Hørlyks last post today [Day 20] on LinkedIn was actually the last one on LinkedIn. [lol]. He has now moved away from the noise on LinkedIn to the blog called Akutfolket.dk. ["akutfolket" translates to "The Acute People"].

So what? - what has that to do with Berkshire?

Yeah, this is what Peter Attia has been saying lately. This shouldn't be looked at by country, but by city/area. Parts of Italy have very low mortality, but Milan is like 40x Sicily per capita or something like that. Just for reference : Danish Health Authority. Please click on "Status over coronavirus/COVID-19", to the right "Se de nyeste tal" [translated to English : "See the newest figures"]. - - - o 0 o - - - All numbers gathered, consolidated & drilled down, centrally, to get an overview of the whole situation as it evolves, in transparency for the whole population [if it's interested]. Denmark is tiny [about 5.8 M citizens, I think], - easy task to do on a running basis, if proper & systematic reporting procedures are set up & running properly, much more complicated task for the US, but the US will eventually get there, too, and likely very fast [, simply because it's needed]. - - - o 0 o - - - It's like an ERP system & management tool for a real business : It provides input for "guidances" about how "this thingy" evolves over time, capacity planning for the near future [operative planning related to scarce resources etc., and serves as overall input on measurement of efficiency of countermeasures already taken & in place [for evaluation purposes]. It's also serves as input to epidemic statistical models, creating a feedback loop in decision making. - - - o 0 o - - - No matter how much more complicated the [decentralized] "model" for the US will be, the US will get there, too. The "brain" and the will to do it is present.

Thank you, LC, Oh my God.

With regard to the situation in New York City [ref. ERICOPOLYs post about NYC], are there any [hard] data available somewhere to look at?

The real soldiers of today, almost everywhere around the world.

I almost sputtered coffee into the keyboard this morning reading your post, Viking. -And now he has also lost his blocking rights on Twitter. Poor guy.

Novo Nordisk A/S [NOVO B.CPH or NVO] continues to chew it self up [,as it has done for many years now].

Xerxes, Well, the basic assumptions appear to be present in the tweet. [btw, Kyler Hasson is our fellow board member khturbo.] - - - o 0 o - - - Another good piece on the matter at hand : Ravi Nagarajan : Berkshire Hathaway and the Coronavirus Crash.

Actually, it was an interesting article in our regional paper today, where the local hospital (Helse Vest, Norways second largest) had made some prognosis based on the current social-distancing measures. It is in Norwegian, which I know you kan read John, but it is also behind a pay wall :/ (https://www.bt.no/nyheter/lokalt/i/50qVoK/haukeland-venter-under-200-koronapasienter-paa-topp) I've attached a couple of screenshots. The main idea is that "the curve is actually flattening" (Edit: "our prognosis indicate that this will actually flatten the curve enough" is probably a more correct description) , and never reaching the limit of intensive-care beds. This should probably taken with several grains of salt, but promising nevertheless. Thank you so much for sharing, Per, Yes, it's actually a token of some kind of management of the situation, quantifying "where we are", and "what to do [next]", to stay ahead of how the situation evolves over time. -Much more important than "fire fighting" - here, there & everywhere ... - after which the next "surprise" is like doomed to be unpleasant - very - for all.

Danish Health Authority [March 22nd 2020] : Managing COVID-19: forecast and capacity in Denmark for intensive therapy. [unfortunately only available in Danish.] - - - o 0 o - - - At least a stab at forward looking management of capacity - with regard to alone one scarce resource [ventilators - [in Danish called respirators]]. Better than nothing. - - - o 0 o - - - Has any fellow board member read something like this for any other country? [Personally, I find this report bold, because the trajectory of the Danish epedemic is still highly uncertain.]