John Hjorth

$1.73b pretax in the first 6 months...I know....no one cares. Cheers, Dazel I do, & I hear you, Dazel! [ : - ) ]

Buffett has been preparing shareholders for the modest, if any, edge in the future. He has also consistently said that he’d rather prefer Berkshire shares to sell (slightly) below IV. If your long term prediction comes true, it’ll be good for the next CEO. He won’t disappoint new shareholders that way. This is an important part of the coming transition because Berkshire’s shareholders will be an important piece of the culture remaining intact. This is something that current management has not had to deal with. So far. But, boy, there’re some pi$$ed off folks right now, who may be more p’ed off come Saturday Thank you for sharing your thoughts, gents, Not so long ago, longinvestor posted something about Berkshire hasn't moved one whit within the last year with regard to market price. Now please make that the last 18 months - so or so. I suppose, quite some "socalled long term investors" [three months, six months, one year, or so], have lost all patience, and have sold. [Duly noting, that among money managers, "long term" orientation is used as an excuse for lack of performance.] - - - o 0 o - - - To me, the real "dark horse" here [with regard to stock buybacks] is what's going on with the Berkshire positions of the early Berkshire investors over time. [That could move the needle, at least somewhat.]

A bit rude, no? :-[ I wanted to discuss the factors causing firms to drastically increase buybacks. Now of course we know where the cash comes from, as mentioned a lot of this excess cash comes from tax reform and the fact that many SP500 juggernauts are late-stage cash cows. But firms still have a choice how to spend this exesss cash, i.e. return to shareholders vs. invest in the company. Rate of capital investment does not appear to have changed trajectory over the past 5 years or so. Wouldn't one therefore conclude that internal investment opportunities have been essentially exhausted, hence the decision to return the majority of this excess cash to shareholders? So where are the best marginal opportunities for reinvestment, if not in the SP500 companies which have dominated the past decade? Financials, Real Estate, Consumer Staple/Discretionary, Autos...all seem "tapped out". Even tech appears closer to this end of the spectrum. One poster suggested infrastructure, this seems reasonable. But I think this is a real question that the US economy will have to face over the coming years. That is the question I wanted to underline. LC, Personally, I appreciate much that you have taken the initiative to this discussion. Also, personally, I think you that you may have - severely - misread the emphasized above. [Please note I'm not Cigarbutt, and naturally Cigarbutt can reply for himself.] My personal angle is as follows : Both Cigarbutt and I are not US citizens, so, we are observers of what's going on in the US - as investors. Maybe Cigarbutt may disagree with me here, so this is written on personal behalf : Seldom have I experienced and perceived USA so divided than as of now. [Ref.: Cigarbutt's use of "mature", that I personally think was in no way addressed at you personally.] - - - o 0 o - - - In short : For long term investments [i.e. infrastructure investments] to take place in the US for USA to become a better place for all, a political stability with a long term horizon for decisions is absolutely imperative. To me, the political system in the US simply just hasn't been able to provide that recently. No fingers pointed. It requires two parts to collaborate & cooperate, as well as it requires two parts to get into endless arguments. So I also speculate that Cigarbutt's "mature"-comment is about taking real responsibility. -Period.

Finans.dk [July 31st 2019] : Here business customers avoid paying negative interest rates - and here they pay at cash register one.

Thank you for sharing, alwaysinvert, Yes, it appears quite striking. Let's see Saturday, how the last quarter has played out.

gfp, The BAC 2019Q2 10-Q got filed with SEC just after market closing yesterday.

Yeah, tell me about it - have you ever studied something more recent, - something like the doings of Elvira Nabiullina. To me, naturally, you haven't, and thereby you don't have a clue about what you're talking about. Please prove me wrong here.

Geez, I must have been asleep while reading the Berkshire 2018 10-K. It's right there - on p. 12 - BAC shares held 918,919,000 at YE2018. The addition is even visible on Dataroma for 2018Q4, so not NEAM-related. Great find, Dynamic.

I'm a bit surprised to observe today this move by Mr. Buffett, honestly. How about the three days reporting rule? Does that also apply for the initial Form 3? -If it does, the purchase must be in July, right? Well, at least, 50 M shares at ~ USD 30, that's USD 1.5 B allocated. Edit : I just reread gfp's last post. If I think about it from the perspective : "What is going on - so to say - "behind the curtains" at Berkshire?" on this matter, I come up with that Mr. Buffett have already filed for permission to go above 10 % for both WFC and BAC, and perhaps based on signals in the ongoing positive dialogue with the FED [why wouldn't it be that, with the existing proposal for change of regulation?], he decided already now to buy more BAC.

Thank you for sharing, gfp, I have to agree OracleofCarolina here - it's so weird. Well, now we at least got a tiny dose of Chinese culture & politics out of it.

nicke, Please feel free just to call me John. [ : - ) ] I still remember hitting the bull's eye [at least pretty much, I think] on reverse engineering the Berkshire buybacks for 2018Q3 and posting actively about it here on CoBF, after which everything collapsed calculation-wise for the following quarter for me. [-lol!] is a link to a visualization of Mr. Buffett & Mr. Munger, if they had read my posts back then.

nicke, I have been through the whole emotional spectrum with regard to Berkshire share buybacks, too. Personally & today, I think of my personal ideal/theoretical share of the Berkshire cash & T-bills as capital, on which patience is outsourced. So, it allows me to take more risk on other positions. [Naturally, this line of thinking is not really applicable, if one is really heavily invested in Berkshire.] Berkshire provides good staying power in investing. That also matters a lot to me. - - - o 0 o - - - Personally, I expect, that Mr. Buffett has added in a meaningful way to JPM in 2019Q2. Time will tell.

This makes a lot of sense - at least me, personally, longinvestor. It’s also possible that the guy paying millions figured out that he has exactly zero chance of convincing Buffett and thereby winning some credence for bitcoin. What if someone asks (again) Buffett or Munger about this topic the day after lunch? It’ll probably be rat poison still. $4M down the drain. You got to pick the right medium to market your product. Please feel free to mentally bent it the way you want, longinvestor, I personally still think that this dinner/charitable activity was never from Mr. Buffet's side meant to become a "clash between "religions"". Oh-well - here we are.

This makes a lot of sense - at least me, personally, longinvestor.

I certainly agree with you here, SHDL, Personally, I think this capital inflow of institutional money from Europe to the US bond market must be a temporary phenomena, that eventually will dry up. That money is also regulated money, so one can't go totally haywire/heavy in US [uSD denominated] bonds assuming large amounts currency risk on a low yield asset. Hedging costs will create an equlibrium, I think.

Thank you gents for taking time to elaborate on this. What I missed was the three days reporting rule and its interaction with expected future bank holding company regulation when buying more above the 10 percent holdings limit. That question #25 at the last Berkshire AGM from Greg Warren was actually a very good - and important - one. Assuming the proposed bank holding company regulation gets approved, it will certainly make life easier for Berkshire forward looking. I must admit, that I really missed the importance of the reactions from Mr. Buffet & Mr. Munger on this while being af internet-observer to the AGM. Thank you for bringing it up to our attention, longinvestor.

longinvestor, At least partially related to Dynamic's post - which stands for itself - what is this about? [Right now, I feel pretty ignorant, & out of synch with reality].

What is it, that you're really suggesting here, Cardboard?

It's beyond my comprehension, that you continue this line of posting here on CoBF, RuleNumberOne. You are just back in "your old plow furrow" with rambling name-calling & undocumented claims, while simultaneously, you have already exposed your ignorance with regard to European banks and their regulation.

Or some existing bonds may have run up above face value, so there may still be a positive nominal interest rate on them, that has to be paid. Example : Danish State bonds. [There aren't many in circulation though - some DKK 500 M, because Denmark does not run at a deficit]. - - - o 0 o - - - Some bond investors have made serious money in this environment - till now.

I think the same way as you do, Cigarbutt, Short/medium term, perhaps this starts as a large liquidity event, also ref. Spekulatius. Here is a piece, that covers my state of mind recently, related to this phenomena : Scott Galloway : "Earth vs. the Universe". [Not that is helps much, though. Watering my roses etc. doesn't help either. Nor does mowing the lawn - despite that, it's on the to do list for this afternoon.]

You may be right, rukawa, But if you read Greg's post #3, it is actually quite clear, at least to me, that Greg just wanted a non-political discussion of a "living condition", understood as : We all have to distinguish between: 1. An "issue" [understood as something that you can actually do something about to change - to the better, if rationality vindicates everything else], 2. A "condition" [understood as something - hard or perhaps even impossible - to make a change about, as an individual]. Furthermore, "Issues" can mentally be divided into "problems" or "tasks" [the properties of "problems" are that they bug you, or - one way or another, goes under your skin/affects you mentally, while "tasks" you just "fix", where "fixing" even may imply that you just wait for the damn thing to go away/disappear.] - - - o 0 o - - - From that angle, I think this topic is actually interesting, because it covers an element of daily-day life around the world, here power-outages in the US and other places. To me, it's educational to read such stuff, actually. [ : - ) ]

It really reads weird to me, Spekulatius, -Time for a US infrastructure reform!

Isn't the power grid in NYC area built with redundancy with regard to transformer stations? [Here, & nowadays, every time the power grid is expanded, and a new transformer station is built, its redundant & back-up transformer station is built simultaneously.]

elliott, I think both Fairfax Africa Holdings Corp. and Fairfax India Holdings Corp. are two Fairfax investments, that both have the potential to become repetitions of the original long term Fairfax story itself - which - long term - is an amazing one. If that actually happens - perhaps over the next one or two decades - it would be transformational to Fairfax itself, being big contributers to bringing Fairfax to the next level. There is an enormous abundance of capital some other places, and there is so much to do both places [Africa & India]. However for this really to work out, the companies need to get it right in the first place, to build a good track record - to be able to attract new capital to grow, thereby creating a fly-wheel effect. - - - o 0 o - - - Atlas Mara : "Why Africa?". [Old stuff from the 2014 Annual Report that you may have read already because you already have studied Atlas Mara - I personally think this still applies to great extent]. IMF - World Economic and Financial Surveys - Regional Economic Outlook - Sub-Saharan Africa - Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty [April 2019]. - - - o 0 o - - - elliott, I seldom post in the Fairfax part of CoBF. FFH is a fairly small position for me, now for some years actually. I have no intentions to reduce or sell my position, exactly because of Fairfax India Holdings and Fairfax Africa Holdings. I just try to shut up and learn more about FFH by avid reading FFH stuff here on CoBF. Well, here I failed on that - I hope that at least one of the links is of avail to you.