Spekulatius

The next logical step would be article 4 (consultation) invoked by Finland and Estonia . The tanker in question appears to be a shadow fleet tanker from the fleet moving Russian oil. I cant think (sink) of a better opportunity to whack two birds with one stone and shut down this fleet and also secure the Baltic Sea.

Ho Ho Ho: They can’t shoot down propeller drones flying 100 mph, but they can shoot down their own airplanes and Santa Claus. Note the blurry electronics racks in the back are early 90’s tech at best.

It may play out but even if it does, think about the time frame here. You start getting the permits, plans and if everything goes reasonably well, you have a reactor 10 years later. Nobody here goes in these plays with the intention of this being a 10 year investment which could well mean zero returns for 5 years or so.

Every country that ever created real wealth for their population has done so within the western trade network. As far as I can tell, no country has ever succeeded outside, As far as I can tell, no country has been successful trading with Russia. a)- d) often (but not always) comes as a package that sooner or later adds sanctions if they become adversaries as well and makes it even harder to fix deficiencies arising from above. To my knowledge, no country has ever become wealthy despite decades long sanction on their economy and getting excluded from western trade. If you know one, I would like to study this case, it for sure would be interesting. The cost of sanctions to the Russian economy will compound and will make their economy over time a total basket case which also makes them much less dangerous to the west, Yes, they can trade with China but any Chinese company that goes too deep in can get sanctioned too and then they risk to give up a huge amount of revenue for this tiny crappy Russia business.

Nuclear stocks are all the rage, but Uranium just made a 1 year low after a significant rise before. Go figure.

Power shortages in Iran, They oil and gas coming out their ears but don’t have enough power, It’s the compounding effect of sanctions and mismanagement and corruption . The collapse of power grid means that economic decline is going to accelerate. People often state that sanctions don’t work, but look the economies of countries that are long term under sanctions - Venezuela , Iran, another Korea, Russia. All of them are on terminal decline trajectory. The sanction do work as they chip away on the foundation of the economies. Russia will meet the same destiny, it may take a decade or two but at the end, the economy will be such a Debbie downer that wont be dangerous for the west any more.

Another cable cut - this time it seems like a Chinese tanker is implicated. This time a power cable The last (2 Glas fiber cut) one was from a Chinese freight ship with a Russian captain. So I think the Chinese have become participants in the covert war on Europe. I think it’s time to basically stop Chinese ships to get into the Baltic Sea to prevent this from happening. These are not accidents, it’s very likely sabotage. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-investigates-outage-undersea-power-link-estonia-finnish-pm-says-2024-12-25/

Looks like the Russian air defense took down an airplane from Azerbaijan: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14226021/Azerbaijan-airlines-plane-crash-Russians-killed-footage.html

Grupo Mexico are the controlling shareholders. They have a reputation as good operators but also ruthless. I do not know where the ruthless part comes from, so this may be discounted.

Mexican stocks seem to disagree so maybe there is an opportunity here if the view above is correct. FWIW, there is a Mexican RR stock GMXT that could be an interesting play here as well. @Dinar thanks for the math on CP. I think the volume growth assumptions and conversion of revenue into EBIT are higher than consensus. The consensus for FCF in 2028 is also way lower as far as I can tell. If CP can make your scenario happen, it’s certainly a buy here.

Recenr additions to my Japan basket are Elan 6099 and Fuso Chemical 4368. As I mentioned before, I don’t do net nets in Japan, I buy stocks more based on a Greenblatt screen (decent / higher ROE, low EV/EBIT and organic growth). I want to see some revenue growth will all my stocks to avoid value traps and holding more for the longer term. Elan does supply nursing homes and hospitals with uniforms and consumables. I found it when looking again and VSTS and UNFI and while a bit different, Elan is actually a better business, I think. It was mentioned a while ago in one. Of these Japan focused blogs. (Forgot which one and I put it on my watch list as it was too expensive back then, but now came to a reasonable valuation). Fuso Chemical was mentioned in another thread ad an example for the semiconductor supply chain. They do ultrapure chemical for the food industry etc traditionally but started to supply semiconductor with colloidal silica and other substances. Apparently they supply TSMC and others and have a very strong market position for these chemicals, that are used for polishing wafers and are tuned for the process nodes. So it seems like a hide champion sort of business that scales with wafer throughout is available at very sensitive valuations. My knowledge of these business is only an inch deep, I evaluate it based on how I perceive the business, the LT track record and how management presents itself to investors. I buy a basket of these stocks and just try to leave them alone. Other buys are 6723 (Renesas - semiconductors)

One thing that should be noted is that low energy prices is probably the best way to hurt all those shithole countries that are enemies of the west - Venezuela, Iran, Russia. Those three states run on oil exports and the lower energy prices , the less funds they have to do their things. So besides benefiting US consumers, low energy prices have incredible geostrategic benefits for the US and the West. It’s even better the US does continue the energy transition (using less oil) while pumping and hence exporting more. Canada should do the same. The idea that reducing oil output would somehow help the green revolution just does not make sense. I think the US should continue to foster the energy transition in a measured way and use less energy but should pump and export more oil to anchor prices (including green energy) at relatively low cost to consumers but also hurt our oil exporting adversary’s. Now China would also benefit from this, but they are already far ahead in the EV transition anyways and use more coal than oil and gas and even that is declining quite a bit. Not that great for energy stocks, and very low prices will eventually lead to lower output, but I am pretty sure that oil prices of $60/ barrel would probably not lead to an output decline with current economics in both deep water and shale.

I think it’s right to say that Syria wasn’t worth doubling up on for both Russia and Iran for the reasons mentioned. The Assad regime was just a lousy partner and both Iran and Russia are weakened by the other wars that make it harder to allocate more resources to this tertiary battlefield. I am fairly sure that Iran is closely watching the situation and plans for some comeback eventually.

Iraq is lousy but I think the current regime is better than Saddam. Saddam killed hundred of thousand and probably more if you count the war against Iran. Iraq nowadays has a low level civil war going on and hundreds of disappear which to me looks better than what happened under Saddam. https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/middle-east-and-north-africa/middle-east/iraq/report-iraq/

@Dinar Assad regime wasn’t good for anyone. He killed hundred of thousand and even dropped gas barrel bombs on citizens. The HTS are a wildcard, nobody knows what the outcome will be. I prefer a wildcard over a dictator who’s is supported by Russia and Hezbollah and was known to be terrible.

This was probably recorded in the 70’s but is just as true as ever. It also applies to China, perhaps even more so:

Black holes are singularities too.

Meloni, the Italy Premier has come around. Dhe was deemed Putin friendly before she won the election but now made a 180Deg U-turn: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-pm-says-eu-will-not-allow-russia-others-endanger-security-through-2024-12-22/ I don’t think the German AFD will come to grips with this threat- making a deal with Putin is basically on their party statutes. These idiots put in moment of silence for Assad ousting, believe it or not.

Yes, the problem with wind is, if there is no wind in Germany, there is likely no wind in France, Benelux, Denmark and Poland as well because the weather is correlated . So you quickly run into the issue where the connected power network that balances supply and demand pushes up price elsewhere. One thing is sure, more wind and solar can’t be the solution. Germany needs steady baseload and peaker plants (which would be expensive NG)

Not a book but worth reading, because it gives a framework for decision making in these situations.

@John Hjorth No, I would not listen to Putin’s 5 hours presser either. However, you can find some summaries that re useful. It is interesting and scary what a twisted personality this guy has. and compassion or moral compass whatsoever. He has imprisoned himself with his own twisted logic , just like many of the worst dictators in history have. On a different but very related note there is an interested background story on Georgia, which has seen a lot of protests lately after the election . It’s run by a shady Oligarch and probably about to become a Russian puppet state again if it isn’t already: Another covert war going on here.

@John Hjorth I don’t think the Russian economy is going to implode alls of a sudden. Thats doesn’t tend to be what happens in these situations . What does happen is that a war economy is eating itself and hollowing out to the point. the evidence is that they have to outsource to North Korean mercenaries, which likely isn’t very effective and comes at a huge financial cost to Russia, furthering their decline. Also related to this it’s instructive to look at Putin’s annual press conference. he plays the cool poker player here , except he plays with other people lives and gambles his country. The whole thing takes an ridiculous 5 hours, he proposes a missile duel , claims Russians are bored without war and other absurd claims:

What’s up with the exploding police cars and banks to day in Russia: Remember, it can all end quickly as it did today exactly 35 years ago:

Well quantum computing is probabilistic , so it should be good for probabilistic problems. I also think you can probably solve numerical quantum mechanical problems using quantum computing as sort of with an analog computing approach (I am guessing). Also one thing to consider is that with structures getting smaller, all computers will become quantum computer weather you like it or not, because the devices become dominated by quantum effects. If you talk about structure one atom in size (3nm is 10 atoms ballpark) then an electron can tunnel and you don’t really know what is going to happen, except you will know the probability. This will probably happen in 10 years or so. Interesting times.

Everything will happen eventually, the question is the timeline. I think the Mars colony is the biggest nonsense and won’t happen in my lifetime. We would be better off building a city on the South Pole, since it had better weather (warmer), access to water , plenty of resources in the ground and you actually can bail if things go wrong. The first thing that will explore Mars are autonomous robots. Much cheaper, can be adapted to the environment, don’t need expensive life support systems ) and if things go wrong, nobody dies. We will get a human there to plant a flag, but that’s about it.