Spekulatius

This is correct. Nukes are foremost a political weapon but you need to have them if the counterpart has to negate blackmail attempts which undoubtedly occur (see Putin and Ukraine war). Of course conventional defense is the most important cornerstone of defense and there is the gray area of tactical nukes . You really need them all to match a counterparty (flexible response NATO doctrine)

I believe this is a correct take. I could have written this myself. In any case, the US focus on China will be complicated by the fact that Japan and Australia need to consider their alliance with the USA as well. Their options are more limited than the EU states. I think Japan needs to get their own nukes quickly.

I think Europe need to breakdown from the USA. Article 5 being in question (nobody know what Trump would do in case European country would be attacked from Russia - my guess nothing) it means NATO is worthless. The only logical conclusion is to exit NATO and start their own security alliance NATO 2.0. This means getting theirs beefed up and independent of the USA, get enough nukes. Europe has 2M soldiers and 450M people and is technological and economically ways stronger than Russia. It‘s almost laughable to think that Europe as unified power could not deal with Russia by themselves. As far as supporting Ukraine, The EU has ~200B Euros in frozen Russian funds at its disposal that are in Belgium and Luxemburg that with some legal changes can be used to fight Russia - oh the sweet irony of fighting Russia with Russian money. Looks like this is starting based on the announcement from Keir Starmer on the UK security summit today).

I don’t like Trump but he is not difficult to read really. I think it was a mistake for Zelenskyy to keep his regular pullover attire. It sounds petty but I think Trump doesn’t like it be sure because it ruins his photo shoot. Trump is all about appearance and he regards the Oval office sort of like a kings court. Zelenskyy does not fit it. It’s the problem here on display that both men don’t like each other. Trump like Putin way more so than Zelenskyy, that’s totally clear. Zelenskyy job is it to take something home, so he needs Trump to like him as much as is possible. He has failed in this mission. Again, watch Macron play Trump in the meeting in the Oval Office a couple of days ago. It’s a masterpiece of diplomacy. Zelenskyy can’t pull this off.

Much of the above applies to regular workers just as well. Financially speaking it is always better to get fired than to quit. Never quit your job if you can help it, let him fire you. If you are not in a union but working in collective bargaining agreement it may be time to join the union. Union guys are very good at negotiating. I had an ex Gf who worked for a state and got fired for insubordination basically. Her union negotiated quite a good deal for her and helped her file for disability later. I was surprised how well she did given the circumstances. 5 years younger than me and never got back to work. The art of a deal, I guess. I think these Doge firings will be more expensive than people think.

Thats right. You can’t easily open an brokerage account for Indian equities As an individual although I have heard it’s not too difficult if you run an investment fund. The ETF’s I have seen don’t give you access to the Indian mid caps which might be the most interesting segment of the market for stock pickers. the broad Indian indices have mostly underperformed US index funds over longer periods of times. That alone makes Indian equities probably of limits for 80% of the audience here, hence no discussion. Same with South Korean equities which for sure look interesting to me.

We have not seen the peace deal yet that Trump and Vance have drafted up. All we know so far is that Russia has not given an inch of concession from their maximalist demands which goes way beyond just keeping the territories they have so far. Russia maximalist demands would make Ukraine would have take Russia far more territory than they have already and removes any possibility to have an independent Ukrainian state. It would be like Belarus. It’s not a problem for Trump or Vance but it is a problem for Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people obviously. I think this has probably created seeds this fiasco in addition to USA voting with Russia and North Korea and with Russia. Trump/Vance does this because they can’t bully Russia easily but they think they can bully Ukraine to do whatever they like. Vance is not the right man for the job. He is not a problem solver. What he does is just amplifying Trump and try to score point for himself. Note his signature gesture of putting his hand toward his heart as if the American hymn is playing when he starts talking When he talks to foreign audiences he does not address his the counterparts but the US MAGA audience at home. This is consistent with everything I have seen so far from him.

There is a thread on India here thy does get some traction. I felt the above worth noting (it’s more a letter of intent to start talking about free trade deal than a done thing). I think it’s interesting because it’s sort of the opposite of what the US is doing with its tariff fence.

If like to listen to the comments from Vlad Vexler every once in a while. He analyses what is happening more from a politico philosophical point of view: His view is that Zelenskyy was unprepared for the attack and has underperformed. He just can’t connect with Trump’s thinking. The mineral deal when done right should be a great angle for Zelenskyy align interests and get an angle for more support from the US. Not that this was very likely anyways with the way things were going , but it it’s his job to try and he failed. Compare this to how Macron handled Trump just a few days ago. macron knew exactly what to do and what to say and even though he interrupted Trump one or two times to make his point he did this on a very professional and effective manner. Zelenskyy didn’t. I think Zelenskyy needs to learn from this and perhaps sent another negotiator first and get coached in the meantime how to deal with Trump. Everyone who sits in this room is a loser here.

This could very well be a great trade deal If it really come to fruition:

You are doing something wrong if participation in message board affects your mental health.

I don’t think I have ever seen President of any country embarrassing themselves in front of a camera as much as Trump and Vance did. I thought the same thing when they voted on the side of North Korea and Russia and with Russia against Ukraine but yet they have done it again. The only team that can go any lower are Trump and Vance themselves. Decades of diplomatic credibility of the USA went down the drain the last few weeks. I don’t think this is really repairable any more.

The USA is turning into an imperialist power. @kab60 Mark my words, but Trump is serious about Greenland too. He want wants to be the president who makes America larger on terms of land mass. Imperialist powers think in terms of land mass first and # of people second . And imperialist likes to deal with other imperialist who think the same way. Thats now an imperialist trifecta of China, Russia, USA and soon India I think. Those not on above list (Europe, Canada etc ) need to do something or they become colonies to be pushed around. What a time to be alive.

Starter in PAX and a bit more GOOGL.

It’s going dramatically the other way: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/pausing-foreign-corrupt-practices-act-enforcement-to-further-american-economic-and-national-security/ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-maintains-pause-trump-bid-immediately-fire-watchdog-agen-rcna192643

Adding back GOOGL in accounts I sold it earlier and averaging up a bit on PYPL

Works for startups but not for large organizations where there is a lot to lose when things break.

Not mincing words:

$PARA Got rid of it at almost breakeven.

There we go - a flat earther millennial. Home schooling his kids supposedly:

Before I moved to the US, I did not think these people actually existed but now I have met a few. I recall one girl I met (got her number). On our first date, I quickly found that she was the super religious type and took the Bible very literally and believed the earth was 6000 years old (or therebout). I asked her about fossils, carbon dating. I guess you get the picture how this date went. She actually had some college education (liberal arts) was otherwise well versed . She went to some local church that seemed to be hardcore fundamentalist Christians. These people lightly scare more because rational reasoning and the scientific method is foreign to them. If we only had those people, we would have never made it out of the Middle Ages, maybe not even in the Middle Ages. This was before the Internet but I think the availability of all sorts of whacky information and post truth gospels probably made it worse. What a time to be alive. Edit- the Millenials are the age cohort that believes the conspiracy theory the most according to this study.

The world is flat, according to ~34M Americans: https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/conspiracy-vs-science-survey-us-public-beliefs Another ~30M is not so sure.

Christopher Lee, the most interesting man in the world:

WEB is human and I think the death of his long time soulmate has affected hier quite a bit. It would not surprise me the least if he steps back from the executive position and just remains chairman of the board at Berkshire. I also think it would be better for Berkshire quite frankly.

There is absolutely opportunity in all this upheavals for Europe if you look close enough. i think Merkel has a shot of reshaping the political landscape if he gets a strong enough mandate. the changes to the EU will come from political leaders demanding changes not from the current EU bureaucrats themselves.