Spekulatius

Rubble exchange rate tells us that the Russian economy is a black hole: This is despite the fact that the Russian central bank raises the interest rates and this is Tyvola of an economy that basically switched to a war economy where a large percentage of goods produced are going into the war effort rather than public consumption. Since Russia does not have that money , they print it with predicable results. My guess is that the final toon stats from the Russian central bank are understated and they ought to be entering hyperinflation by now. The biggest mistake the west could do is ease the sanctions. Even if there is a truce (there will never be peace with Putin) the sanctions should stay in place imo and everything that lowers crude prices helps too, as that’s about the only thing that Russia has to get hard currency. Long terms, they just become North Korea. Still dangerous but hopelessly behind on technology behind with no chance of ever catching up.

Because Trump and Elon are both Alpha males and there can only be one:

Federal land doesn’t have that much oil. Not even close to get 3M barrels. In addition, the investments in federal would just compete with other investments on non- federal land, so incremental barrels would probably not increase much. That saying drill baby drill won’t do much, but higher prices will.

WMT and NVDA PE are almost the same. I am not sure what’s going on here or where the bubble is:

Went to see Bruce Cockburn last weekend just because he is till around. Was just OK.

$CPNG is up 54% this year. The banks are all big winners, up 50% + and I sold them. I think they are richly valued, except banks that are not in any index like FMCB. I think my biggest winner percentage wise was TPB and I don’t know exactly why the stock went up that much. Foreign stocks were losers as group except Japan, which did just OK.

BNR (Brenntag), DHL, JST (Jost), perhaps JUN3 There are a few others that are nanocaps that I won’t mention, at least not before you buy them and perhaps never. All the above operate world wide pretty much.

A bit puzzling why it drifts down. I am going to add a little more as well but I think there is regulatory and country specific risk (Georgia).

The 4 the season was a low point, all the other ones are stellar.

I like 1881 much better than Yellowstone. I did watch 3 Seasons of Yellowstone but then had more than enough as it descended into a soap opera, set in Montana.

I rewatched Godfather l. Don’t realize how much Marlon Brando and Pacino carried the movie, the fist time I watched it. Going to watch the sequels too. Probably gives you a good idea how politics works now too.

How does he get 3 million barrels more? Is he going to set up a national state energy co to produce those? Budget cut from 7% from 3% means we we going to get a nice recession, so not good for any stock.

The German government is gone. Somebody is paying attention. The election outcome in February will be telling either way it goes. A strong mandate for the CDU would be progress. If votes go to the left and right splinter parties then not so much. Stocks are getting cheap there. Low expectations are one way you can see positive surprises.

Trump is going to cause a lot more volatility. The sleepy days of the Biden admin are gone.

Somebody check on Tepper if he is still OK. Or maybe he sold into the surge he caused.

Arnault deserves to have a spot in one of those painted glass windows. I think in the past, the artist often snug in their sponsors into the art work somewhere. Do i you ask yourself - whomps the guy standing next to king X and Saint Y, what his significance? Well he may just be the guy who paid for the whole thing.

BNTX and MRNA trading around 1.2x tangible book (which is mostly cash). Both have products on the market and significant pipelines. Perhaps too significant for MRNA as they may have trouble financing it, but what do I know. Seems cheap though.

Inflating it away doesn’t work any more if everyone hates inflation. Inflation takes a bit to be noticeable and most people haven’t noticed it before 2021 . It‘s like touching poison ivy, first time it itches a little and the second time it sucks. Trumps policies are inflationary all over the place - high deficits, less immigration, tariffs. The current market assumes he can do this without negative externalities. Thats a brave bet to make.

Musk won’t last more than 6 months in this role, whatever it actually is.

That is Kreminal. Maybe Putin lobs ballistic missiles because he runs of cruise missiles?

Pretty much. If nuclear black mail works, it will work too on the US as well and North Korea and Iran are surely are watching. Putin changing its nuclear doctrine for example is laughable. Putin could have triggered a nuclear strike at any time already. He pretty much has absolute power. The only doctrine there is that Putin does whatever he wants in Russia. Its the west job to prevent him from doing whatever he wants elsewhere.

So a Chinese vessel with a Russian captain destroyed the fiber optic link to Finnland. Deserves some response, imo.

How so. If Putin thinks he is winning, there will be no settlement, I am pretty sure about they. This is a gift to a Trump. He can keep the practice in place - he doesn’t have to do anything, or he can reverse it.

Maybe the wrong thread, but Porsche (the operating business, not the Holdco) trades now at 12x earnings. Balance sheet is clean with very little net debt. Maybe Arnault will take a look as this VW/ PAH /P911 construct gets ever more ludicrously valued.

Unauthorized emigrants (which actually includes some that are legal for the time being like asylum seekers) are estimated at around 10M which is actually lower then in 2010.