Spekulatius

If you don’t mind a grab bag of assets, buy QUCT. You get 25k of farmland ( the result of a 19th century Mexican land grant) in near coastal central California for basically free. I am not sure it ever gets monetized though.

@John Hjorth Spirax Sarco - a great Uk company has the same thing , you can get a free hard copy of a book about their history. I ordered it and got it a bit later. It’s a great company too, but fully valued. https://www.spiraxsarcoengineering.com/about-us/our-history

100 bagger, that’s something. I guess AJG is in there as well? As Spock said - live long and prosper.

Climate impacts can’t be the real reason, because Europe is going to use the NG anyways (or has to stick with coal, which is far worse from a climate perspective), it’s just the question where they are going to get it from. I suspect the real reason is that Biden wants to be NG prices low in the US to fight inflation or help the industry (lots of chemical industry in his home state Delaware benefiting from low NG prices). its not a good reason be sure mostly NG prices are high because of lack of pipeline infrastructure not the NG cost itself. Anyways, I think the real reason is not the environment or emissions, Biden has this thing going on with energy costs and we all remember he wanted to keep the prices at the pump low last year, using the SPR. I think this is sort of the same thing and very shortsighted.

Based on what I am reading, the stock may not be that cheap. Trading at 1/3 of book at a PE of 7 means that if it traded at book, the PE would be 21 or the ROE a bit less than 5%. That would like a value trap to me. the only mitigating factor is that they bought back their own shares in size, which most microcaps don’t do. I guess the important facts are in the detail, but just based on what you wrote, the stock could well be a value trap.

Well I own $BTI so emphatically yes.

Similar thing happened with my CHL holding. Trump already lost the election, yet Munchin somehow decided right after Christmas 2020 to ban US institutions and person from holding them causing forced selling. The ruling wasn’t even clear at that point, so the brokerages made their own rules because nobody knew what to do. This is the risk you are taking when owning shares from a country that is an adversity to the US. Just look at what happens in WW1 and WW2 with German business in the US. Schering Plough is an interesting history to read on that matter. @Castanza also bought the shares after the invasion to Ukraine deeply discounted, so it was a clear gamble which so far has not panned out. At least to me, it’s pretty clear that if you own Chinese shares and China attacks Taiwan, your shares are going to be very likely frozen for a long time. You can debate all you want what is right or not, but history has shown that in a war, your ownership rights to foreign assets are likely forfeited. Thats nothing new either, but has been true literally forever.

@ValueArb $RILEY involved in this as well. They seem to have a knack to align with dubious characters. Marc Cohodes is on them and think it’s a terminal short. Wouldn’t mind seeming them becoming roadkill personally.

You think this is nice? Looks like a Courtyard budget hotel building to me. Imagine having tons of money and building this

This perhaps could deserve its own thread but HDB (HDFC bank) looks interesting according to this writeup from valuepunks : https://valuepunks.substack.com/p/hdfc-bank-an-update I don’t know much about Indian banks, but HDB stock does look like a decent opportunity.

A good part of the real estate boom occurred under his watch. He has been in power since 2013 after all. RE was a way for the CCP to make their GDP growth numbers and that’s why they kept encouraging RE and now it’s way too big and those investors in RE are likely screwed. Xi now wants to deflate RE slowly as to not implode the economy. I think Xi is the worst leader China had since Mao. Anyways, I think the big companies like Alibaba, Tencent etc can do well despite all this, provided they are going to be left alone by the CCP, but that does not seem quite likely either.

His early exploits can still be found here in his blog: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/author/admin/page/66/ He definitely had thing going on with real estate in Ulan Bator (Mongolia) which don’t ended well for investors. In my opinion, it’s clear he has come a long way.

Kuppy seems to have learned a few things along the way - he is more flexible and his risk management seems better. Many great investors blew up -Ackman blew up twice with his Target vehicle and Gotham Partners, that didn’t prevent him from being successful later,

China needs to be even more afraid to get blocked themselves if they do me a play on Taiwan. I think it’s a likely counter play if Taiwan gets attacked and blockaded and China has no good way to counter this and it would absolutely wreck their economy. Zeigen is right on one thing, China geographic location is absolutely terrible from the POV to make war against the allied Japan, US, Australia. You can literally cut China off from most of their trade flow by placing a carrier combat unit in the Singapore / Malacca straight and no Chinese ship is going to make it from the Indian Ocean to China any more.

I think he regards $AAPL as a never sell holding, similar to $KO, $AXP and possibly $BAC. He is at heart a coffee can investor. The way he wrote about Apple in his last annual reports suggests so.

Insider trading is if you trade as an insider on material non-public information that you received through your employment. Disclosing this information to others that may trade on this is also insider trading.

I actually think that NVDA makes more sense than AAPL. As @ArminvanBuyout mentioned, the multiples are not that differ on t and if you are bullish on AI, NVDA should grow by leaps and bounds more so than AAPL. AAPL looks more and more like KO in 1999.

Elon is clearly valuable for Tesla and I think he deserves some stock, so the board cannot just ignore his request. There is a question how much is justified or not. I think the board could structure a deal about him having substantial voting control on the AI part of the business without causing excessive dilution for Tesla shareholders. Another way would be to create another class voting share stock with more voting power. Both could work if it’s really voting control he is after.

Added a bit more $HUM today on today’s earnings warning. I am not pleased but it is what it is. Thats why I like to take smaller positions first, because it gives some room to buy more on weakness. FWIW, this one is in the penalty box until there is further clarity on cost trends this year.

Capedge is still free and has this “delta” functionality, they call it “view diff “ . I tested it out and it seems to work. My guess is that Capedge won’t remain free forever, but for now it is. Capedge is great for tracking new filings.

@cknucks First time I see someone mentioned $APD - what your thesis here? Supplying gases is a good business and if the hydrogen becomes a means of energy storage or replaces dirtier alternatives, then it should work out very nicely for $APD and competitors like Air Liquide or Linde. I am not sure the valuation is that great at a time of higher interest rates, because the business need a lot of Capex.

Sounds like you have done your research. Hedges are limited in duration so how well KW does depend on the interest rate trajectory. If Fairfax bails them out, they are going to charge and arm and a leg and the equity will suffer.

The leverage on $KW is bonkers. I owned some bonds a while ago and even those seem hairy. They are yielding ~9.3% now (4.75% 2030) down from ~11%. Not for me.

No idea, but an analyst from Citigroup downgraded the stock according to my newsfeed from IB. I typically ignore brokerage downgrades, I don’t think it’s something to fret about, unless they really present some new facts.

Seems like a good day to add $CPNG