Spekulatius

Gilded age is pretty good. We did a trip Westchester county last weekend and had a tour at Lyndhurst castle (highly recommend ) and they mentioned that part of the show was filmed there. We did recognize some rooms from Lyndhurst in S1 E5. Great show, which had a similar feel than Downton Abbey. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4406178/

Alibaba falling seems to be a case of where economic good news is bad news for the stock market. I have heard another economic forecaster talking about the Chinese economy looking stronger than predicted. Here is the version on Archive: https://archive.ph/IRPMZ

My guess is that Iran really didn’t want to do that much damage. They were just forced to “do something” to save face after Israel bombed their assets and are probably glad if this does not escalate. Not that Iran government are great guys, but I think they want to stay out of the Gaza conflict. They are more rational than many in the west think, but they are also bound by constraints that can force them into a Zugzwang situation.

The problem is that neither Hamas nor Israel or Iran has a winning strategy. It‘s tit for tat and this for that and as it spirals out of control everyone loses more and more. Sad.

As the world reserve currency, the US has to run both fiscal and trade deficits - there simply is no other way to be a reserve currency, because the $ hasn’t end in foreign hands eventually and that via trade deficits. Its the size of the trade fiscal and trade deficits that is an issue ,not the fact that they exist. On infrastructure - keep in mind that while states and federal government are not the most efficient in building them (most of the time), they can finance them at a way lower cost of capital than private entities. So that compensates for inefficiencies. Also, tolls are a tax on trade and mobility which are beneficial to economic growth, so that’s also to consider.

Buying some ABEV here for yet another swingtrade most likely.

He forgot about $UNH

If we get a Liz Truss moment in the US as it pertains to the deficit and capital markets, I think we will be shitting, not peeing in our pants.

Fiscal deficit of 6.3% of GDP means that if the Fed keeps interest rates high it’s not going to do much. It’s like driving full throttle while pulling the hand break.

You need to abuse the McDonalds app to get deals and order the right way and it still works. My son became an expert with this.

The infamous HK dump. This happened a few time with Hk stonks which often have issues that the public later learns about.

You can get lousy index performance when a few stocks start to dominate the index and those stocks start to perform badly. On this case, the average stock in the market may do quite well, but the market cap weighted index would underperform an equal weighted index. A classical example is Canada where Nortel became close to half the index at its peak and then subsequently went to zero. It caused a severe underperformance of the Canadian stock market for quite some time. Another example is the UK stock market with its heavy weighting of financials which imploded during the GFC and did not perform that well years later.

And has badly underperformed since 2016. No guarantees. The period from 1998 to 2112 was an interesting one as different sources boomed and busted at different times. 2000-2002 was foremost a tech crash but utilized got hit badly too (Enron etc). 2008-2009 was a financial crash where pretty much everything crashed, but tech recovered well, while banks never got their multiples back from before and many bank stocks were diluted at the bottom (Citigroup), so they could not recover.

Buying da dip in $LW this morning with small potatoes in my portfolio

Trimmed GOOGL a bit today AH.

This is pure gold (on Moody‘s):

Annual report is out. Earnings ~$77.6/share (about flat ) Book value ~$1370/share, of which ~$700 are treasuries, munis and cash. They did buy back ~215 shares this year. Nothing new really.

Kestenbaum and STLC come to my mind. Lousy industry though.

Reducing $C more and sold a bit of $DFS too in tax deferred accounts.

I found this podcast about the current state of Alzheimer’s research from Big Brains very interesting. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/big-brains/id1368737097?i=1000649991924

PM, XLE if there is a selloff BTI, PBRA and VALE on the riskier side. It‘s a bit tough now to justify dividend stocks, with interest rates where they are and fairly high valuations.

@KCLarkin @Luca I agree. With non- promotional managers, there isn’t much to talk about. What you can do is check their portfolio. Governed capital has some compounders in them that are less talks ed bout like AME, KEYS, FI. MEDP. I wish I had paid more attention to MEDP when it sold off, for example. With the Motley Fool Jim Gillies has been pounding the table for them, and yet I ignored it. I think Giverney has a great hand selecting stocks and they don’t change their portfolio too often, so the signal/ noise ratio is pretty good if you track them.

Hudson seems like a neo Marxist. He has some valid points (as did Marx) but I think his conclusions are wrong and any application of what he teaches will lead to disaster. Adam Smith is long dead but in terms of his legacy, I don‘t think we have come up with a better model.

@Jaygo BOO looks very interesting to me- one of those cyclicals with a competitive advantage that are secular growers over the long term. Thanks for sharing. I put them on my watchlist.

This values only the stocks in the SP500 that actually pay a dividend. All those stocks like AMZN, TSLA, META (so far ) and many others are valued at zero in your model. I think this is the reason why the value in your model is too low. A dividend growth model can only be applied to dividend paying stocks.