Spekulatius

Haha, Biden’s track record get better and better. Record energy production. Stock market up 80% or so. inflation down to 2.5%. Real wages up. Literally anyone is better then 4 years go. It’s quite interesting how perception is so disconnected from economic reality. On Trump trades - the lower taxes don’t done thing for tech, which is the ditching force for the stock market. Check big techs tax rates, which is way below statutory rates. thats why they ere silent about it, they dont care. Smaller community banks do pay statutory tax rates, so there is an angle there. I would be careful with the likes of BofA and their ~$800B MBS holdings if Trump, policies are indeed inflationary. Then they have to carry this bag of bricks around another 5 years at least until it melts off enough to do no more damage and if rates skyrockets, it could actually get scary. Anyways, we have a golden opportunity to dump our bank stocks , so no need to really have to worry about that one. I would avoid anything related to farmings (ADM, farm machinery etc) as AG market are already weak and retaliatory tariffs likely target farm goods. I think likely beneficiaries are small domestic industrial producers who now have to compete with Chinese exporters. I have a few ideas but need to do more research. I do find that a lot of them have a large part of their supply chains in China or Asia as well, so not sure how this would out. They are also crummy businessmen general. Defense could go either way. For energy, I think Trumps less regulation may be a slight negative, but probably doesn’t matter much. I think something like ATKR might work (less foreign competition and they can continue to roll up domestic competition).

Women’s get taxed higher than men. I like it.

Most people who voted for Trump bet on the jockey not on the horse. They have no idea where the horse is going to go. I think the Trump trade is harder than it seems. For example, if Elon with his Government efficiency commission (note the Orwellian vibe) comes through, shouldn’t defense stocks crash? Or the AE energy credits and EV credits get slashed, killing TSLA bottom line? Perhaps all the redneck disabled folks that @dealraker mentioned actually need to get jobs?

Another Trump fan mentioned to me via social media that Trump is lowering interest rates on credit cards. I think he mentioned in one or two rallies. Thats all I say about this:

No, they are going to put tariffs on agricultural goods and a few other things. The problem the Chinese have is that they export so much more than they import that anything they do to counter tariffs can’t reciprocate. If you look Mr Market seems to anticipate this scenario already, because agricultural good related business have not participated in the Trump rally at all. FWIW, Farmers vote for Trump, but it’s likely that his policies are not good for them at all. This is nothing new, same was the case in 2016.

Well. I asked perplexity with a few angles and it insists on rising energy prices. I don’t think it makes sense though: If China were blocked from purchasing crude oil or other energy products, global energy prices could still rise due to several factors. Firstly, China is a major consumer of energy, and a sudden drop in its demand could lead to market volatility and uncertainty. Additionally, the geopolitical tensions and potential military conflicts associated with such a blockade could disrupt global supply chains and increase transportation and insurance costs. Furthermore, other countries might increase their strategic reserves or alter trade routes, leading to temporary supply shortages and price spikes in the global market. Energy prices would rise in China, but would drop like a stone for everyone else, because the oil destined for China would have no where to go. I agree a short term spike is possible , but if you think about it China imports roughly 11M brl of crude per day which might go to zero. Total worldwide production is 82M brl, so that’s more than 13% of the oil production that has nowhere to go. Now China can still import some oil with a pipeline from Russia, but one cruise missile could take out a pipeline for good for a while.

Ask ChatGPT why crude will go up in price. Also ask ChatGPT what will happen if the US blocks maritime trade flows to China, including tankers, or perhaps just tankers and other commodities.

Probably not much unless the US would go for a blockade of Chinese trade flows, which would be the right move, but not sure this would happen. If the blockade were to happen, crude prices would fall a lot , because there would be surplus oil with nowhere to go.

Yeah, it was in the Value after hour podcast. I think it’s a good one. Toyota owns a piece of it already and they collaborate on an all the hybrids power trains. They may decide to take them out.

This was more due to the Saudis going fighting for market share than Trump policies. By way, folks here were going bonkers over Biden selling down the strategy oil reserve during the 2022 scare, but this was absolutely the right decision. I think the crude prices are determined by what happens in China economically.

With shale, the lead in production is pretty short through - maybe 6 month. For an offshore project, that timeframe is longer but that’s not what is driving the production. Drilling on federal land is pretty irrelevant and that was the case under Trump as well , so the more restriction under a Biden didn’t really matter and was largely symbolic.

TSLA is the perfect stock. A bet on Trump, AI, robots, Self driving cars, energy transition. It’s got everything.

If you look at the production numbers, you would think that Biden was already drill drill drill. Its all driven by prices and the US production is only a piece of the puzzle. I do agree with energy it’s a bit like with guns - you want democrats for the stocks to do well.

Valued Ok for the stagnant business it has become.

Since we were discussion regulation in Europe, here is proof that it’s not all the EU’s fault:

I remember getting cigs for my grandpa from the vending machine when I was maybe 8. It was so proud to get assigned such a prestigious task and I managed to do it.

Sounds like mushrooms. I am in.

If you Google this, you are not going to move.

Not sure, found it posted here:

Trump is going to make volatility great again.

Basically just common sense stuff given Italy’s position and problem , focusing on things that people care about: Immigration, Italy’s role in Europe, some fiscal reforms, public sector digitization etc. https://www.itssverona.it/analysing-the-maiden-year-an-overview-of-the-foreign-policy-of-giorgia-melonis-government Expectations were very low when she came to power and she generally has exceeded expectations.

Reduced CMCSA and sold $CABO. $CABO was a loss.

Sold $GTLS. Worked out well.

If you want to look at a country that does a few things right, look at Italy under Meloni. I was skeptical when she was elected but she actually moves things in the right direction, imo.