no_free_lunch

I've said it before, we need to trim the fed way, way back. You probably need to get rid of it and replace it with something because the corruption will just grow back otherwise. There is never an audit of their success rates, and it's hard to do. We just take it on theory that they are better than the alternative. Yet we claim to be capitalists and otherwise trust the free market. It's really bizarre. I say establish some sort of fund, pay into it each year a little bit and pay it out when we hit a recession. Something simple like that but clearly we need a reset.

Who is the Warren Buffet / Prem Watsa of Japan?

The US never sought to take over Vietnam ,they just wanted to prevent the spread of communism. So not really the same as Ukraine. It was definitely grand strategy what they did. Policy of containment. It is well documented. I for sure am no expert on it but it seems like it worked. The west was able to hold off the communists.

I actually agree with almost everything you say here. Yes, the US is headed down the wrong path. I may differ in the solution or next steps. If you look at the Vietnam war, I don't think the US really lost it in the greater sense. If it was there to deter communist expansion and push them to waste resources it worked. At least for that period.

Russia is threatening to nuke us and you are questioning the rivalry. It's not a rivalry it's survival and it's based on experience.

I agree with Luca on the sanctions. They simply do not work. Not with China / India avoiding them. The rest I think is short sighted. It all boils down to whether the US & now NATO should interfere or simply stay in their zone. Our rivals are not staying put, they are expanding. If we do nothing, then you face irrelevance and then who knows. Certainly Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, Tibet, etc. teach us that we cannot sit idle and expect to be left alone. We have to have defenses. Just a question of where we draw the defensive lines and what we are willing to do to protect those lines.

I like globe life. Trading at just over 10x projected earnings for the year. They are a cannibal buying back 3-4% of shares each year. Berkshire has a stake in them. Long term results are outstanding. Obviously I am a bit late, the market is pricing some of this in. However, I think relative to the market some of these insurance companies can offer reasonable returns of ~10%+ with fairly low risk.

Insurance, the effects of rising rates are positive and still trickling through.

The issue is these are not legal risks but actual legal settlements piling up. They are not theoretical they are happening. If you look at this link they are estimating $10B for forever chemicals plus $6B for the ear plugs. Then this article says there could be up to an additional $30B liability further? It's substantial, even for a company with $5B of net income. You also have stagnant earnings so it's not reasonable they can just somehow grow out of this. They could be in the doghouse for 5+ years is my concern. Capstone estimates 3M’s total PFAS liability risk is nearly $30 billion, beyond the existing settlements. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/29/3m-faces-more-legal-headaches-after-earplug-settlement.html

Well this part of the debate I think can be resolved amicably. I do not intend to mislead. As I understand the history, Poland was an independent country for hundreds of years up until 1800 or so. At that point it was split up by several countries including yes, Russia. However, I would not call it Russian territory historically or ethnically. It would be like saying that Russia is really a Mongolian country because they ruled for a period.

The only one that I would consider removing is MMM. I don't like all the lawsuits, hard to handicap the cost. You could consider adding some O&G or pipelines.

John, If you watch the video, the conditions to NOT invade was removal of all allies from the block that had joined since 1997, this includes Poland, Romania, Hungary, and other Eastern European countries. Why does it matter to him so much, this is not his territory. and these territories were not traditionally part of the Russian empire. They can join up with whoever they want to. The EU needs to be a little bit assertive, you are up against a tyrant, you do not need to bow to his rules or demands.

I am sure you can protect both your own border and arm Ukraine. These are not linked. At the US border, I suspect we are seeing the far left Biden agenda play out with the open borders. I would support and encourage you to secure your border. However, that in no way is prevented by the Ukraine spend.

Right now, it feels a little like early 2008. Back then they were raising rates, home prices were shaky but still stable, the stock market was doing ok, just a little dip here and there. I am watching Canada to see what happens here. 5 year mortgages (or less) are the norm and by most metrics we have higher mortgage debt levels, so we should see sooner the impact of rising rates. Perhaps though, rates will push through to commodity prices and that will soften the blow but I think this Canada is a good bellweather.

One important part of the history is the mass murder of Ukrainians by the Soviets. Early estimates of the death toll by scholars and government officials vary greatly. A joint statement to the United Nations signed by 25 countries in 2003 declared that 7–10 million died.[e] However, current scholarship estimates a range significantly lower, with 3.5 to 5 million victims.[8] The famine's widespread impact on Ukraine persists to this day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor Pick your number, either way it was a genocide. The soviet system continues to be honored in Russia..

There is a jewish leader in the country and a Muslim defense chief. The other meme going is that Ukraine is run by Satanists. I am not kidding. So it's run by Jewish Nazi Satanists according to these theories. Really this is all an obvious attempt to derail the conversation. These theories are made by fools and for a level of iq below anyone on this board. Let's talk about the tens or hundreds of thousands killed this year and last. This ongoing casualty count. If all you got is some made up history I got nothing much else to say to you other than I know what you really are doing. It's not to get to the bottom of current events.

Go search the thread and you will find what you are after but really I'm in no mood to placate. I think this is a trumped up argument to distract from the murder and war brought on by RF this past year. There are tens of thousands of dead civilians, more every day but sure the real news is some Ukrainian joined the nazis 80 years ago. If we want to look that far you will also see a pact with the soviets and nazi. Where Poland was divided. Thousands of poles killed. That was all under Stalin in league with the nazis yes.

Where were your guys criticism when Russia murdered tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians in Ukraine. This link is just a one off and frankly Russia's wagner group has it's own nazi links. If Russia were winning why would they reach for links to North Korea of all places? What does this say about Russia?

Those are not related. The southern border, yes there are costs but it's more enforcement is the issue. You can do both.

I don't know the whole situation but my gut is we should not be involved. I would need proof.

Lol. I quite enjoyed this. It's true, investing shouldn't be complicated. I spend the first decade getting increasingly complicated and fancy. Been dialing it back ever since. Let us know the next in your face investment he makes. I got no shame with cloning.

CNR.to - Canadian railroad oligopoly, mega compounder, trading around 19x earnings albeit this years earnings are flat. The company's record and industry dynamics speak for themselves. It's down 15% or so which is a decent and rare opportunity.

I think this is a great link and so relevant. There is real risk to being bearish.

Argentina went in for socialism.. this is how it always ends up. I am no expert on it, never been there, but I know they chased the socialist demon. " Argentina, “which has defaulted 7 times since its independence in 1816, which has seen the largest relative standard of living decline in the world since 1900, and which is on the brink of political and economic chaos again in 2019. Argentina met most of the following criteria: a) higher personal and corporate tax rates, and higher government spending; b) more worker protections restricting the ability of companies to hire and fire, and less flexibility for companies to set wages based on worker productivity and/or to hire foreign labor; c) more reliance on regulation, more constraints on real estate development; d) more anti-trust enforcement and more state intervention in product markets; and a shift away from a shareholder-centric business model; e) protections for workers and domestic industries through tariff and non-tariff barriers, and more constraints on capital inflows and outflows. " https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-one-country-proves-even-little-socialism-does-lot-damage-118946 Canada is going for socialism and could end up similar. I wonder if the stagnant indices we have seen in Canada and the EU since 2008 are not reflective of the degree of socialism that we have taken on.

Why is it that the US is so much richer than Mexico? Why is Arizona so much richer than any of the states it borders? Rule of law most certainly. I really wonder about the above. To ignore these type of inquiry and just flip to US imperialism or whatever you are getting at misses so much. If we are to move forward and you want to talk about the US specifically, we need to at least understand what led to the US wealth creation. To go apples to apples you need to compare the US to the best peers, probably Canada, Mexico, South America? When I do, superficially, what rhymes and doesn't rhyme is the rule of law and capitalist systems in place here.