LC

I can't speak for other banks but the one I am most familiar with is pretty good for one reason: They are so freaking backwards and people heavy, that they can't HELP but review every decision with a huge committee and take the most pansy-ass approach. And the regulators have pounded pounded pounded into their heads the need for "conservatism". So every decision is viewed through that lens. And the people making these decisions are total Karens (male and female version) with zero skin in the game except career longevity. So they just say, "is this a conservative decision?" If not, they don't do it. And I don't mean to be critical: it has it's benefits. Suboptimal allocation in good times but I would be surprised if major cockroaches emerge. Although I am not as close to the hard lending decisions as I used to be, I l kind of look forward to see how the big boys fare over the next 6 months. I think a lot of these fintech/SketchBanks will take some hits, but the over-regulated, people-heavy major banks will actually come out a bit stronger and be able to pick up some of the wreckage.

How likely do you think the deal close is? Particularly with respect to timing. The other deal I am tracking is TD Bank/First Horizon which is delayed due to regulators dragging their feet: https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/money/business/2023/02/10/td-bank-first-horizon-merger-delayed-regulatory-approval/69891953007/#:~:text=First Horizon and Toronto-Dominion,27%2C 2023.

Added BAC, TV Proceeds (well, not received yet) from the FSTX tender that went thru. Was interesting to see it show up on Fairfax's book - will be a nice gain for them as well.

Close but not quite! I won’t say much more to protect the names of the innocent. If you do try and hit ‘em up for analyst positions, show them you’re smart, sharp, and (respectfully) ruthless. These women climbed over bodies to get where they are - they sniff out bullshit faster than any male counterpart I’ve met.

I was more interested in the bonds she mentioned buying at 28c on the dollar, but I didn’t press for the name. Skiing is most fun with a clear mind. I will say, she and her friend charged hard! Kept up with us and probably skied circles around half the mountain.

Met the CEO of a NYC-based risk arb/event driven fund on the gondola a week ago. At its peak she was managing ~3b. Go get em, ladies.

All the philosophy you need is right here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8rG_2ed1wg

I looked at the Tel Aviv exchange a bit. Would you mind sharing your brief perspective? I was a little leery of throwing money at a financial institution in Israel.

Only in forced accounts where my options are limited. I look at it like a balancing hedge on the overall portfolio. But really it’s because I have no other option. It’s about 25%.

Restaurants moving to induction more for the safety-related benefits (less stringent safety measures required) I've used both but prefer gas for sauces, sautés, and most protein cooking (aside from perhaps searing steak on a cast iron). But I also am biased because I have copper cookware which sadly doesn't work on induction ranges. Nothing boils water faster than induction, though.

Took Sanjeev's "Van Life" topic to heart, eh? Kidding - congrats on the sale

Go get em tiger!!

A larger-than-normal amount of the premium today is due to volatility. Selling today would capture that, if you want to remain long you could hope to repurchase similar options if the volatility premium ever normalizes. Of course, it may not behave the way you intend. But either way you are in a good position.

Greg we’re gonna need pictures of this 20-30% commitment to alcoholism. Congrats on the new digs- I would guess you don’t end up being the only COBF member who settles in JOE land!

Sold covered calls on TSM. 85 strike...hoping to get called away in March which would be a ~15% IRR. Goofy stuff, did the same with LPX a month or so back.

I spent my childhood summers losing various belongings at playland just south of there

Same happened here. Safeco (Libery Mutual) quoted me $200+/month for one car. State Farm quoted me $100/month. No idea which actuaries are smoking the good stuff but i'll take some.

Does it account for the local differentials? OXY selling their oil at a higher $/boe vs. CNQ?

Damn cubs is that you? 4 plates woo. Get em. Next time I ski I'll try and remember to bring the old go-pro camera and you can watch me fall down a hill.

that’s exactly right. I bought a condo 1.5 years ago - financed at 2.75%. mirror unit just sold a few months ago at my purchase price. Except this was when the 30 year is pushing 6 or 7% All else equal that owner is paying quite a bit more per month. So I’m either sitting on a position where: I rent out at 40% profits, or if rates go down my equity skyrockets. I do great but the first time buyer trying to get a place? Maybe to raise a family or whatnot? They are fucked.

A big ole +1% on a low 7 fig sum. Grateful it wasn’t worse and frankly I’m not a great stock picker so any outperformance is lucky rather than skill. need to do my year end recap but from memory the biggest losers were tech - msft prob the largest loser. Took cap losses there shifting funds to goog. And then subsequently also took losses there.

As it should! War is terrible. The people of Ukraine are experiencing something very similar to that right now sadly.

An old WB interview - too short!

My own thoughts are: 1- whether amazon actually wants to close: they are slashing budget, and I don't have insight whether robotic automation is part of those budget cuts or not....will they find some way out of the deal? 2- as you say the downside if it doesn't close is probably pretty heavy