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Everything posted by LC
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I admire your gusto Will you account for growth? I imagine one benefit of using a small cap index is finding companies which may grow into mid/large caps. Low earnings, low book, high buybacks...these metrics may ignore these.
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Better Grades in Banking Through Better Banking or Better Special Effects?
LC replied to Saluki's topic in General Discussion
AI is a cost reduction tool - it is not even a risk management tool. Stress tests are responses to macro factors: how will portfolios/positions look in a recession/depression environment. GDP, HPI goes down by 8%: What happens to your consumer book? Treasury yields go up 4%: What happens to your loan portfolio? You have to look at the variables the regulators are flexing, and the response on the bank's capital ratios. But ultimately this is a reflection of the bank's business: One bank may have a large CRE book, another may have a large unsecured consumer loan book. Different books of business will respond differently to macro factors. It's up to each investor to assess & get comfortable. Regarding Basel, and regulations in general: Nobody is telling banks how much risk to take, but regulators do put a price (capital) on risk. The higher the cost, the less risk banks will take. Or, they will do something creative to take that risk. Frankly I am of the opinion that banks are in a strong position. The entire globe went thru a year long shutdown of human and economic activity, and I didn't see a real major bank issue. -
I guess the "giving pledge" can be expanded to "I pledge to give all my money to my kids"
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I have a small Japanese stock basket that I bought on JPY margin - effectively short the yen. It is in no way intended as a currency trade, but I do agree with @brobro777
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Saw that too end of day and took a few shares. I think that's just how some of these lesser known but good value stuff trades.
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I was going to ask if you've been buying more DFIN sub-60. I have been taking bites as well.
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Regulators will essentially control the capitalization of the various insurance agencies. That said, Berkshire has in the past been successful taking over insurance books and re-aligning the investment portfolio to "something more Buffett-esque". Regulators generally have allowed it given Berkshire's sterling reputation. The play here as I see it: 1- Buy well functioning insurance companies with significant long-term customer relationships, who have a conservative investment book, at reasonable valuation multiples. 2- Leverage the existing customer relationships and re-align the investment portfolios, perhaps repricing some coverage (thanks, Ajit!) 3- Sit back and sip Coca-Cola
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Charlie Munger's Bookshelf - Help Me With Identification Please
LC replied to Voodooking's topic in General Discussion
Those are on the bedside table. These are just pictures of the books he never read and stuffed away in a bookcase -
I would break up the ecosystem into its components. What is needed for AI: -Energy -Compute -Data -Model(s) -End uses Energy strikes me as a race to the bottom. Compute not far behind (although I am surprised Nvidia has such a large lead here. It's been a year already and nobody has put out a competing product? Data I see as potential opportunities. Who has the latest/greatest data? How is it gathered/filtered/accessed/sold/used? I think there is opportunity there. Modelling. Kind of goes hand in hand with data. The modelling techniques themselves are well known. So this becomes an exercise in who has the most computing power and data size and quality. End uses. I see a lot of opportunity here (as does the rest of the world). Video is the next step. Who will own the best AI video generator. Adobe? Google/Meta/MSFT? A bit of this circles back to data: how will these models learn/license from all the existing privately owned video (think movies, tv shows) that exists? Are the major film and TV studios going to be big winners here as they (1) License their data for $$$ and (2) use the end product to save $$$? Is someone like Adobe or one of the Tech giants going to control the ecosystem? Perhaps the tech co's get the data for free in exchange for use of the model? Would be a huge win for tech. Of course there are other end uses as well. Curious what some ideas are for winners/losers there.
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Interactive Brokers stops US, CAD, EU Investors from buying in China
LC replied to Luke's topic in General Discussion
I don't like it either. Please post IB's reply, I am curious what is driving this. -
The company should be compensating Gill as they would any other IBank bringing shares to market. Gamestop was able to raise a significant amount of funds due to Gill, should he not be compensated?
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Outstanding find, dartmonkey
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Looks like it was founded Nov 2010.
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Looks like 15.3% annual return, inception->date Outperforms his benchmark (MSCI world index) https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/factsheet/ Not sure when inception was.
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LOL this is hilarious, thank you for posting. It's hard to believe there are people out there who behave like this
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Here's one the much older folks have probably experienced: When you're "young" (50s, 60s) start looking at single-story living (no stairs) with restrooms within walking distance. There's an age when you hate being seated close to the restrooms, there's another age when you greatly appreciate it
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Move over to IBKR and enjoy the 1.5% margin rate on JPY. Boom, free 10%. Or free 10 stories to use your building analogy
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Biggest regret was probably getting married too young. Neither of us wanted kids, we always kept our finances totally separate, but being labelled "married", we both stuck around in a decaying relationship far longer than if we were just "partners". Now I think unless there's a practical reason to get legally married (kids, some financial/tax/citizenship angle), there's no real benefit. Looking forward the next ten years, I'm in my mid thirties and so these are probably the last years I'll have to be fully physically capable. I imagine in my 50s I'll have to tune it down a bit, so I aim to travel and have as many physical experiences (skiing, climbing, etc.) as possible. Although I see some old guys on the chair lift in their 70s, still ripping it. And the older guys posting here about their climbs to Everest and such...it gives me hope!
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I am back after 2 years of miserable job and inactivity for investing
LC replied to muscleman's topic in General Discussion
Don't take it personally - this is what just what management does when they have some alterior motive. A new boss, looking to chop heads. Or a management team forced to cut staff and needing to come up with reasons. Welcome back, I hope you (and your family) are healthier. Life is a journey for sure...gotta deal with the bumps sometimes. -
78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
LC replied to Blake Hampton's topic in General Discussion
Keeping the mortgage in Canada allows you to deduct the interest- SD mentioned it earlier “smith maneuver” -
78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
LC replied to Blake Hampton's topic in General Discussion
Well, keeping the mortgage means you keep the interest tax deduction. I think the benefit is: 1- you end up slightly ahead on the spread 2- you get a lot more flexibility, i think, because treasuries are way more liquid. -
78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
LC replied to Blake Hampton's topic in General Discussion
That's what I'm doing here. Renting the 2.75% place and buying a fixer-upper (bored - need a project). -
78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
LC replied to Blake Hampton's topic in General Discussion
Assume you have the cash to pay off the note, why not instead buy a 30 year treasury, use the coupons to pay the mortgage? Plus you still have some spread for taxes or profit? -
Tender offer for a huge chunk of the outstanding - and the shares already trade above the tender price. Interesting situation. Do you have a long term thesis or is this a trade?