LC

Yep, I was in over the weekend and the baby is back. Was a damn blast, every hood I was in was packed like 2016.

There's also the ICE Black Knight merger. Black knight agreed to divest some software to Constellation (probably a win for CSU as well) to appease regulators.

Interesting- I was thinking if the state does provide some backstop then essentially pricing is provided by reinsurers and “paid for” by the state (well, by taxes). So while price controls exist for the homeowner, ultimately they are paying a market rate set by reinsurers but paid for by their taxes. But seems that is not the case. Regardless I agree with you: price controls seem like a very uneconomic setup which will only push logical players out of the market, thereby increasing risk overall. Thanks for the discussion.

Thank you for the insightful post, Maverick. A question: given the dynamic as you have described, is it ultimately the state which is bankrolling homeowner policies in CA?

Perhaps out of respect for Prem? Doesn’t want to be seen stepping on peoples toes, especially at their family controlled company.

Yeah, homes that you live in are a bit different. I have two condos that I use/rent. Ski condo gets used most weeks during the season, then is rented on weekends. Then it gets used randomly during the summer/offseasons for fishing/hiking, or rented if people want it. Montreal condo gets used on/off during the warmer months, then gets rented during the schoolyear. Sure, all of that money would have earned more $ in the market. But then what, I have to Airbnb everytime I want to go skiing? Or have to find some random rentals during jazz fest over the summer? If I want to move to the mountains permanently in 20 years, now I need to deal with whatever the market looks like at that point? The forced savings part is useful. Shit ever hits the fan in my life, I can sell them. But I can't just sell and rebuy on a whim. Not like stocks where one day I sell OSTK at $30 and a few weeks later it runs up to $38, and now I'm like DOOF.

Does it have to do with the user "group" you belong to? Parsad is "Administrators" Luca is "Members" (plural) james22 (and most people I noticed) are "Member" (singular) No clue but just an oddity I noticed

I get the same kind of emails from some guy j.powell@frb.gov If this forum is eliciting such a desperate response (over 50 bucks? Really?) then we're doing something right.

Are you Denver based? This is exactly what happened - COVID hit, people stopped going downtown for work. Turned into a ghost town and the homeless moved in. Now it's 3 years later, everyone in Denver would rather be hiking/biking/skiing/etc. so nobody has returned to the office, so the homeless have pretty much taken over. It's slowly getting a bit better but lagging other cities for sure. We just elected a new mayor who campaigned on "solving homelessness" but like Greg said previously, everyone promises to solve stuff they don't have the power to solve. That said, downtown Denver/16th street mall was always for tourists, business travelers...kind of like the 9/11 memorial in NYC...people who live in Denver never actually go there. Pretty much every neighborhood adjacent to downtown Denver is much nicer, better restaurants, etc. And then there's Cherry Creek for those with too much money and not enough taste (kidding :D)

I hate clutter so I try to use the same device for as many things as possible. I make montreal smoked meat one or twice per year and just smoke it in my grill...wood on the burner, pan of water next to it, and meat next to that. This is the recipe I used this past time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuCr-YxfGSY I use the same torch for searing food as I do for sweating copper pipes https://www.homedepot.com/p/Bernzomatic-Trigger-Ignition-Start-Blow-Torch-Kit-with-14-1-oz-Handheld-Propane-Gas-Cylinder-and-Adjustable-Flame-333084/202539561

https://s29.q4cdn.com/983326523/files/doc_financials/2023/q2/2Q23-Earnings-Press-Release.pdf Univision Q2 earnings: • Total revenue grew 11% to $1.2 billion, driven by growth across all major revenue streams in both geographies • Total advertising revenue grew 10%, which was led by 29% advertising growth in Mexico that included a benefit from foreign exchange rates • Global subscription and licensing revenue grew 14%, driven primarily by ViX’s premium subscription tier • Adjusted OIBDA held flat with the Company’s core linear business continuing to fully fund investments in ViX • Engagement on ViX continued to grow, with 17% sequential growth in total streaming hours • The company expanded its market-leading soccer portfolio and secured the rights to two key Liga MX teams this quarter, now holding rights to 17 out of the 18 teams in both the U.S. and Mexico Adjusted OIBDA held flat, despite absorbing significant investments in the company’s streaming service, ViX. Operating expenses reflect these investments in ViX, including new original premium content, sports rights, marketing and technology, and grew 17% to $846 million.

Squat and deadlift as much as you can! Gotta keep the lower body strong…if you have access to a sled, sled pushes are incredible and they don’t load the spine like a squat does, if that concerns you.

Sounds wild. I always knew Zordon was up to something sneaky. Thanks for sharing the recommendation.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ford-f150-lightning-price-cut-ev/ Ford Motor has cut the price of its electric pickup truck, the F-150 Lightning, by between $6,000 and $10,000 at a time when major automakers are fiercely competing for the attention of electric vehicle shoppers. Company officials said Monday that access to raw materials for the truck's battery is improving and that it has upgraded its suburban Detroit factory where the truck is manufactured, enabling it to drop prices. Those developments also mean customers will get their custom-ordered F-150 Lightning much faster, Ford said.

To me it makes sense to have a timeframe for Ben Graham type stocks (net nets, cigar butts, etc.). Stuff you are buying low and selling at something looking like fair(er) value. Other stuff with long term compounding opportunities, that I am a little more flexible. These are the great company/good prices Buffett-esque stocks. TV, like you, I bought because it looks cheap. But, I don't want to own the main business long term. Maybe if they spin Univision or the futbol team & stadium, I would consider holding those. But to me, this is cigar butt I am looking to get a puff on.

What tools do you use to review the indian markets? Both at a high level (screeners) and for individual company financials/filings?

Opportunity costs as well. Sucking my goofy thumb on META is the most recent big fuck up. Tried to get too cute with energy stocks the last 2 years and as a result was light adding to Fairfax and JOE.

For other buyers (low/no cash, first/second time homeowners, younger and middle class), there is no inventory. Hence the homebuilders doing well and stuff like homebuilders and JOE/PCYO etc. catching a bid. Although JOE also has some additional drivers (coastline expansion, retirement/vacation homes etc.). But my take is that it is new builds rather than existing inventory turning over.

Hubris punished - glory to Poseidon. We should be sacrificing our best goat and flagon of wine.

Aside from first time buyers, if nobody is buying second homes/third cars because 6/7% rates have killed those markets, where are people putting those dollars? Seems like equities.

Yeah, I sold deep ITM calls against my entire LPX position. Was a nice IRR.

Here's a question: If you accept that the stock price is a rough estimation of intrinsic value (over a long time horizon), is it reasonable to accept stock price volatility as a rough estimation of intrinsic risk over a similarly long time horizon?

OXY is another one. The warrants are attractive, you can sell short term calls against.

Hey I really don't know. And I was a 20 something that bounced rather than pay 1M for a half-shitbox, so I get your point. That said - NYC can reinvent itself very quickly. The city's pace is very quick. You're right that the homelessness and the bullshit policies and politics are a problem. But those are temporary problems, not structural. WFH yeah is a structural problem. But I think that can just as easily bring folks back to a revitalized NYC as quickly as it drove them away. I own Clipper and Aimco, in about equal weights.

My take is that NYC goes thru ebbs and flows. Like everywhere else. What is NYC going to look like in 2040? My guess it will be more desirable than the sunbelt. I may be wrong but that's where I'd put my chips.