LC

Oh wow - my brother got married there ages ago Good ole Tarrytown - hopefully Westchester treated your family well!

Buffett is smart. The best time to raise money is when you don't need it. Especially if it costs 1%. That said yeah I agree he is probably buying more Japanese equities.

The million Canadian dollar question: are investors here buying, holding, or selling? What % if your portfolio is Fairfax compared to say, 6 or 12 months ago? Partly rhetorical - but is Fairfax as easy of a “buy” today, versus 6, 12, 24 months ago?

He puts the block in blockheaded.

Another way is debt forgiveness- forced or voluntary.

I take a more sobering view. I would argue 1-3 are closer to cash return businesses and only 4 can arguably be a reinvestment/growth story. I own tobacco and O&G - the thesis for both is similar: the market is pricing in a faster terminal decline than I am. But there is not really growth, and I would be a seller when they are valued closer to a market multiple. Gambling, I haven't done much research there so I'll reserve comment China - You have compelling valuations and potential for growth with China. I am dipping my toes here (partly based on your posts!). In a future where the current political risks are overblown, it looks like a good bet. I am betting a political status quo is more preferable to open, direct hostilities. But still, difficult to argue against other faster growing areas of the global economy that will probably continue to grow: Technology and healthcare are two that come to mind.

And Capone went to jail for tax evasion. None of this is new.

We need a "Trump financial news" thread. My two cents - after seeing this guy skirt the law and fleece anyone he could simply because he had power over them, for DECADES in NY...I do think it's hilarious that he is on the receiving end. Do I with the law was transparent and principled and we all played by the same set of rules and the various systems of justice enforced it all equally? Of course. But sadly it isn't...as Trump himself fully knows. To me it looks like he played his hand too strong and it's biting him in the ass. But don't fret - I'm sure daddy Putin or whomever will come to his aid and let the courts play out this charade another few years

Dipped a toe into five-cent (tencent) and couche-tard.

That's fair but the counterpoint (not that I really agree) is that - if Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon, etc. are all out there competing with each other and presumably driving down profits in the name of adding consumer value, why are those stocks essentially the high flyers of the US economy? Is it competition or simply an oligopoly?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-03-19/bank-of-japan-monetary-policy-decision?embedded-checkout=true

10+ years ago the line was, "watch what WB does, not necessarily what he says"

I chuckled What % are you in FFH? Purchases due to muddy waters took me over 45% I view it as having good known baseline performance over the next few years (due to the bond positioning), some potential for further outperformance (depending on the insurance market, investment performance). But I am looking to pare it down as I find investments with more upside torque.

Hah! I’ve owned Simpson on and off. Do you think it qualifies as having a long runway based on new housing stock needs?

The railroads are a good asset but you know, when your “moat” is the political and regulatory minefield that makes it impossible to create competitors, it makes it hard to complain about those same politicians and regulators taking their pound of flesh. You make the bed, you need to sleep in it…

I think it’s a lot easier to stop writing insurance policies when regulations become too onerous, versus energy where the upfront capital is much more expensive.

Any prospects you're comfortable sharing? Buffett in his latest letter reiterated the approach: worry less about price, buy high ROIC with long runways. Obviously hard to divine, but that's the goal.

Nice letter to read! Amazing they are still able to crank out 20+% operating earnings growth yoy. Really glad he included comments on Oxy and Japan, and BNSF and BHE. Strong words on energy indeed!

He's busy helping Mohnish install hardwood baseboards in his library

That's kind of the only thing that attracts me to Sony as well. I assume you think UMG is too expensive on a relative basis? UMG you get a pureplay and slightly better market positioning. I do like some of Sony's other businesses (gaming), but it's a huge conglomerate and my knowledge is cursory - I don't know what could be creeping under the surface.

I just sold my LEAPs as well (StoneCo) two days ago. Rode that one up from ~9->15 in shares, then LEAPs from there to like 18.50. Thanks, Todd.

Agreed. Almost every company makes the same mistake - they find themselves in super favorable business conditions, generating tons of cash. Shareholders clamoring to buyback shares. Buybacks inevitably commence. 12, 24 months later? The business landscape changes. The share price is half what it was, same with competitors/adjacents. Rather than being able to take advantage, the company spent hundreds of millions, billions, on buybacks at prices 2x above the current price.

BTW just a minor correction - net premiums from 13B to 23B

Replace GIG with Fairfax stock and you just described many investors on this board. People with cost basis at 50% of today's price

Agreed- what do you think old guys with liver warts do on park avenue? Spend time with their family? I don’t think so!