Luke

Taiwan attack, war with China etc are an easy -50% drawdown, if not more.

Considering there is almost no sharecount shrinkage in the index and margins peaked 2021, youd need 4 years to recover of that drawdown (4% sales growth+2% dividend+19x earnings)

SP 500 trades at a PE ratio of 26'35 as of 29th DEC. Getting back to 19 is a 30% crash, very significant.

Happy new year to everyone on the board, lots of prosperity and good fortune!

If EM would trade at 25x, they would have outperformed the SP 500: Meanwhile these economies still grow faster.

The second-biggest economy in the world, trading at PE of 10 now, I think? And 12x forward for developed with those quality companies?:

All this probably does is justify his salary and position as a professor

Is this necessary for understanding alphabet at 25x earnings? lol

And i loved it at this year BRK meeting that some fun was made about damodaran

Honestly, if I look at damodarans valuations I feel bad for him, he puts in SO many numbers and builds the most complex models for what? So he can see if it is a good investment or not? Isn't that obvious with some basic school math and as already said by mr.pabrai, if its not easily obvious its likely not a good investment? Exactly. Then also the whole debate about relative valuation, terminal value, perpetual growth rates etc...just think about if the business is still here in 10 years and if it is moaty enough for that, apply a low conservative multiple and if things look good still go for it... +

It would be interesting to know how the distribution of age on this board is and how that biases investment ideas and certain threads, if 70% are 55+ then your willingness to invest for the long term and be okay with 5 years flat returns obviously decreases, you will want safe and sound investments where safety is favored over growth?

Slow growth developed markets trading at 25x+ earnings multiples, high growth developing markets trading at 7-8x earnings. Last time the US traded at 8x earnings was in the 80s? People who bought back then did very well in the coming 40 years

Im with IB since end of July, performance as of today since end of July TWR is 15.12%. Since FFH was a large position also in the beginning of the year and the rest did well too, returns are easily north of 30%, good year 0 Bonds (does Fairfax count? :D), now with a bit of margin.

xD Which Timeframe?

https://bilello.blog/2023/put-these-charts-on-your-wall-2023-edition?s=09 Nice one from Mayer posted on X

Smart money

How many Jobs will fall away if the US can't export to China? I mean yeah, US citizens will buy more expensive US made goods but what about Chinese buying US goods? Is it fundamentally that easy to say "fuck china" and be good? @cubsfan

Yep

Would be bearish for Chinese equities initially if Trump gets reelected...

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/26/us/politics/trump-2025-trade-china.html#:~:text=Mr. Trump has said he,like electronics%2C steel and pharmaceuticals Mr. Trump has said he would “enact aggressive new restrictions on Chinese ownership” of a broad range of assets in the United States, bar Americans from investing in China and phase in a complete ban on imports of key categories of Chinese-made goods like electronics, steel and pharmaceuticals. In 2018, the Trump administration set tariffs on more than $360 billion in goods, in an effort to encourage Americans to purchase domestic products. In response, China set its own tariffs on more than $110 billion worth of U.S. goods. The conflict is still ongoing, and so far, there’s no clear winner in sight. The tariffs and trade barriers have hurt both countries, and with bilateral trade sputtering, many are left wondering if the peak of globalization is well behind us. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/biggest-trade-partner-of-each-country-1960-2020/

Buy order for Prosus got executed, increased position by 20%!

Have a buy order in for the 27th to buy the Prosus dip on Euronext!

Wonderful Christmas time to everyone here on the board, thank you for all the thoughtful discussions and shared knowledge, hope everybody has a good time :)!!

24k, thats like 0.00002% of their population, i accept your opinion and the picture you sketch, "a country falling back into communism, planed economy, total control, decoupling of global markets" but i dont think this is reality or will happen.