Luke

And its funny, that Biden literally sounds like Xi now: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery/ And that’s always been my vision for our country. To restore the soul of the nation. To rebuild the backbone of America, the middle class. To unite the country. For decades, the middle class was hollowed out. Too many good-paying manufacturing jobs moved overseas. Factories at home closed down. Once-thriving cities and towns became shadows of what they used to be. I ran for President to fundamentally change things, to make sure the economy works for everyone so we can all feel pride in what we do. To build an economy from the bottom up and the middle out, not from the top down. Because when the middle class does well, the poor have a ladder up and the wealthy still do very well. We all do well. Implementing caps on medication (COMMUNISM)!!! This law also caps out-of-pocket drug costs for seniors on Medicare at a maximum $2,000 per year when there are in fact many drugs, like expensive cancer drugs, that can cost up to $10,000, $12,000, and $14,000 a year. Instead, they used those record profits to buy back their own stock, rewarding their CEOs and shareholders. That’s why I propose that we quadruple the tax on corporate stock buybacks to encourage long term investments instead. Let’s finish the job and close the loopholes that allow the very wealthy to avoid paying their taxes. So tonight, let’s all agree to stand up for seniors. Stand up and show them we will not cut Social Security. We will not cut Medicare. Those benefits belong to the American people. They earned them. Here’s my message to all of you out there: I have your back. We’re already preventing insurance companies from sending surprise medical bills, stopping 1 million surprise bills a month. Capitalism without competition is not capitalism. It is exploitation. I’ve made clear with President Xi that we seek competition, not conflict. We are the United States of America and there is nothing, nothing beyond our capacity if we do it together. May God bless you all. May God protect our troops.

If i look at my home, germany, and at our government and then extrapolate to 2050 and also look at China and their government and what goals they set themselves, i think life will look MUCH better in china than here. China mid century Goals: New heights are reached in every dimension of material, political, cultural and ethical, social, and ecological advancement. -- Modernization of China's system and capacity for governance is achieved. -- China has become a global leader in terms of composite national strength and international influence. -- Common prosperity for everyone is basically achieved. -- The Chinese people enjoy happier, safer, and healthier lives. "The Chinese nation will become a proud and active member of the community of nations," said Xi.

Its funny if you read through PDD earnings call, they play the game very well, pointing out SUSTAINABLE GROWTH and overall development etc and not something like "we make a shit ton of money and can squeeze consumers out". Its hard to find a proper balance between absolute corporate domination and too much state intervention and blocking. I agree that having a moat in china is not as valuable as having a moat in the US but i think due to the fierce market the CCP wants the economy and technology will do much better than here.

In the US, the country is run for capital owners, the same is true in most western countries. In China and Asia, the country is run more for society and the people. Investors are much safer in the US and West but on the same side they are facing huge inequality problems, corrupt governments, underinvestment etc. I think a country that encourages more growth for everyone by means of higher taxation will do better in the long run, although you probably can get more money in the west as long as there is no civil war. So you will have some prosperity payments in China, but it's not all for nothing since over long term, the revenue generation and nation wide wealth will be better. Wallstreet doesnt care at all about all that, but for long term investing this does matter.

1.4b people call China their home and their families lived there for generations. There are 5m Chinese in the US, that's a bit more than 1% of the US population and 0.3% of China's population. Who is "fleeing"? In fact, many wealthy people flee western states and try to park their money in Third World countries where they pay 0% tax, is that good for prosperity and society? In Europe the problems are so severe, the underfunding, the middle class scrapping the bottom, wealthy people leave here too, in fact they will most often try to leave for more money. That is a sad aspect but reality. Right now the world is in crisis, birth rates drop during war and economic trouble. In germany after 1945 birthrate went up from 1.9 to 2.5, especially when things get more prosperous. Thats on the government now but its not set in stone forever and automatization can catch up a bit as well.

One thing one has to realize is that the dialogue in western media is incredibly US/Nato focussed. The soft power and influence of chinese culture is not even allowed to swap over, you only get painted a picture of an "enemy". Still, they are a thousands of thousands year old culture and society and on peak performance in everything, schools, technology, sport, music. Its a huge heritage, way older then the comparably small history of the US. There are little chinese movies in our cinemas, little chinese music, chinese literature and those soft power fields have been dominated by the west. South Korea and Japan are doing much better than China in that regard. When I watched the League of Legends e-sport finale, South Korea played against a Chinese team and I realized when seeing those guys playing that I have huge respect for their society and background. Every Chinese person I ever met has been more low key than other nations, but they have so much to offer. I appreciate their collectivist approach and also that they are going contrarian on many political topics, even with all the backlash. Also appreciate Li Lu and Co to develop more appreciation for Asians in the west: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-foundation-launches-with-125-mln-business-leaders-combat-anti-asian-hate-2021-05-03/ The taiwan situation is difficult and I dislike their approach, still, as Munger often said, their nation has great prospects and at 10x earnings buying one of these super well managed companies looks like a great play now.

@Xerxes To quote from what you mentioned: A ruthlessly balanced view of the PLA is essential both to avoid war and, if necessary, to win one. Who will fight a war against China? The US? Lol and good luck! I am sure that the men and boys in the US want to give their lives to keep the NVIDIA bubble from bursting

Pisa rankings also showed the superiority of the asians, Singapore, Hongkong, Taiwan etc....

If the US will play the war and complete cut off card that will hurt initially but the country has so much self-sufficiency, i am not worried at all. I am not even worried about the CCP taking away shares etc, people underestimate them honestly. The government has strict and specific goals for the future, are long term planners, are all smart people, corruption is now tightly controlled with Xi (compared to the corruption in western governments lol). Go China! https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3243951/are-high-speed-trains-becoming-xi-jinpings-preferred-way-travel-china

In the end what matters are cheap local ressources available for development of technology (China has plenty, relations with russia are nice, Saudis like em too) and superiority of that technology. Who cares where the car comes from as long as they are well made and offers balance for price and performance. We saw the shift for price sensitive consumers with PDD and this will only continue with other products, Cars, Technology etc. China is a powerhouse, work ethic is very high, the infrastructure for science is on par with the US (C9 League vs Ivy League). If there is one country that is quick to change and adapt it is china, all though they will do mistakes, readjusting happens fast. Future for China is massively bullish. Our trains dont run on time and barely work and meanwhile they are eating in robot run restaurants!

Conviction

Added to Prosus

Small starter in Consol Energy

Especially with the years of inflation we had

Thanks @KCLarkin. In that case it does look more attractive, still not cheap but arguably better than bonds and probably the Index too.

Do you know how much? Yeah, it has to be deducted at FCF but is included in net income by how much?

I mean this is still probably better than 4% 10 year treasury and better than keeping cash but if you are smart enough to buy alphabet, you should be smart enough to understand that berkshire, fairfax, exor etc are much better buys and then skip alphabet in the first place IMO. I bought some alphabet when it was around 100 USD and sold after the chat gpt drama for little gain, i wouldnt buy it now.

IMO the earnings multiples are overstating how much cashflow investors are actually buying. Alphabet pays 20b a year to employees in shares, 20b of EPS power that gets lost every year. The company can be bought for 1.6T, highest earnings have been 76b in 2021. Deduct your 20b in SBC and deduct maintenance capex of some 10-15b, there is maybe 40b FCF coming in every year right now. Thats a 2.5% yield yearly. YoY growth this year has been what, 5%? Earnings have come down also so the real FCF yield is probably 2%. To make this work out you have to assume SO much, stable 50x cashflow multiple, continued revenue growth of 15%+, great capital allocation, no attack on moat etc There is no margin of safety anymore and the chance to get burned very high. Maybe one can make the stretch and say the 40b going into RnD could be sent to shareholders etc but who can really say or know that? And who wants to bet on that?

Yeah, his humor and take on life, the occasional interviews with him where he just said the blatant truth, not caring what other people think, never been so said about a "celebrity" passing. Rest well!!

RIP Charlie

R.i.p Charlie!!!! Cant believe it.

Valaris Ltd

I completely exited BRK yesterday, which i loaded up on heavily in summer 2021, some 40% gain, very decent, market was way too expensive and back then i didnt know FFH, BRK offered me good sleep. Most of it went into FFH, yesterday i bought more Valaris with the proceeds.

Anyone enjoying black metal here?