Luke

+1

Its hard to hold chinese positions due to the horrible sentiment and bleak outlook/capitulation. I also get doubts sometimes and need some inner dialogue to maintain being bullish but its hard. It speaks for the distress and dislocation in the market.

"After our intense research and FORENSIC accounting (LOL)" we discovered HUGE problems yadda yadda yadda....then lots of technical words, make it confusing and long with many numbers so investor is overwhelmed and rethinks himself...they really are a sad pathetic ghost. Also how they have to make these huge announcements...WE ARE SHORT!!!! Just short in disguise, id respect that but not with a big parade, gaslighting and deceptive fireworks

I mean really, how ridiculous is the short thesis considering the cash coming in but i guess he is desperate. Nvidia shorts not working...

Fun times, IMO short report misses the forest for the trees...market does seem to be a bit concerned though, short sellers really are the sleaziest of em all...remember the PDD report that came out...they want to create fear and panic and suck the blood out of unknowing investors. Especially if the short thesis is just weak as it is here...

Damn

This was on my shrine luck letter at a temple in japan today, added to my Mitsubishi position this morning

Bought some Mitsubishi Corp on cheap margin, having buffett as largest owner while the company still trading cheap is fine for me

Its the year of the dragon folks, Xi aims to beat SP 500 this year...;-)

Id ALWAYS chose a world ETF with the whole world sorted by market capitalization. Especially over longterm things can change and you still own 60%+ US in a global index anyways

Will a coal stock that makes 20% a year as cashflow yield for 5 years and buys back their stock beat microsoft? Very likely but you have the risk of commodity cycles and that it is not a great business. But small caps can easily beat large caps here and MAG 7 are a massive crowded trade right now.

Take Microsoft as an example. Market cap: 3 Trillion Earnings: 77b Last 5 year Sales growth: 13.7% PE multiple: 39x So if you have 13.7% sales growth the next 5 years and margin+PE multiple stays stable you will get 13.7% return+1% dividend+1% buybacks-->15.7% annualized return. IF the multiple stays stable. Is 2.5% earnings yield a fair valuation considering interest rates and the quality of the business? In the current environment no, but if rates go to 2% again then maybe it's fair. If they have an increase in sales growth due to AI or whatever and they average 20% sales growth the next 5 years+stable multiple your returns will be great. If they have 10% sales growth for 5 years and the multiple readjusts for whatever reason to 25x you will make maybe a 5-10% return in 5 years. Does Microsoft have a margin of safety or is cheap? NO Is it a great business? YES

Looking forward to the opinion of the board!

Great music! What a voice and passion.

Anybody an opinion on which one of the japan bets is the highest quality one? Thinking of buying one of them and using IB margin. Currently doing DD into them!

Ok, I still find some value in China but i am already very overweight, and yeah then cloning pabrai with coal...still i find it hard to find sth where i could put fairfax money where it is AS well invested as with FFH

To own more shares in a company that I think will outperform the interest paid on the borrowed money. You will get more margin room if you have a more diversified portfolio and your risk of a margin call is less because not everything will fall as much together. Holding 20-30% margin with MAG 7 is much safer than having 30% margin with commodity stocks where a huge drop is way more likely. It works against you but as long as you dont get margin called you can still ride the wave up again and have a margin position over 5 years+. Practicing with it just with small amounts and getting a feel for it is a good exercise. I can only speak about IB but you have one big problem that is the unpredictable increase of margin requirement during volatile times. They can up the margin requirements by an unknown amount like 30% and if your excess liquidity is too low at that point you will get margin called. Thats why keeping margin to 10-20% is quite safe but of course depends on your other holdings and how deep they will fall if shit hits the fan. There is this tiny percentage of a once in a 100 year event where the market drops so hard that even with 10-20% margin you will get a call but It's very unlikely. I am also talking about portfolio margin here which is way better than REG T margin which id never use.

IMO Fairfax looks great from current valuation over next 10 years and i cant find much that looks as good, in what are you investing the proceeds?

In what would that person invest the proceeds, what businesses at this kind of quality and reasonable prices can one find? Everything else is expensive now...

Is a mistake honestly! Fairfax is more than half of my portfolio now and i wont even think about trimming at current valuation

On what does FFH inclusion in the TSX 60 depend?

Makes sense to me!

Currently 1.2 leveraged, majority in China and Nintendo. How much leverage do you use and how much do you think can be held comfortably? Cheers!

Yeah exactly, I was waiting for it yesterday, on my second broker it already arrived but at IB it was there when I woke up this morning