what are you selling today?

[CorpRaider]

Berk

[DooDiligence]

1 hour ago, CorpRaider said:

Berk

 

[CorpRaider]

Just now, DooDiligence said:

 

The old man has lost is and I do no fk with Canadians.  

[Spekulatius]

Sold my TSM reluctantly (geopolitical concerns) and reduced GOOGL a bit (valuation, concerns about AI hype).

[Luke]

17 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Sold my TSM reluctantly (geopolitical concerns) and reduced GOOGL a bit (valuation, concerns about AI hype).

What moved you to pull the sell trigger on TSM? I dont really sleep well with it either

[Spekulatius]

30 minutes ago, Luca said:

What moved you to pull the sell trigger on TSM? I dont really sleep well with it either

 2 reasons:

1) the shares have were close to the near term price target I set when I bought it late last year

More importantly:

2) Buffett explanation why he sold (geopolitical). I thought a lot about this and  especially why he changed his mind quickly after the purchase. Buffett is extraordinary good at risk management due to his background in insurance. He clearly thought this through and felt that the risk is increasing. He also might have non-public sources (again Berkshire is at heart a company build around managing risk) that influenced his decision.

 

I don't always follow Buffett, but in this case, I felt it's prudent.

[Luke]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

 2 reasons:

1) the shares have were close to the near term price target I set when I bought it late last year

More importantly:

2) Buffett explanation why he sold (geopolitical). I thought a lot about this and  especially why he changed his mind quickly after the purchase. Buffett is extraordinary good at risk management due to his background in insurance. He clearly thought this through and felt that the risk is increasing. He also might have non-public sources (again Berkshire is at heart a company build around managing risk) that influenced his decision.

 

I don't always follow Buffett, but in this case, I felt it's prudent.

Well said and reasonable

[E. Nashton]

A small tracker in FGH (FG Group Holdings). Will keep on my watchlist but not working out the way it was "sold" to "FINTWIT".  

 

**edited** to clarify I started a tracker position as it reminded me of a BOMC, BH/SNS, PDH, etc. Was worth a lottery ticket. 

Edited May 22, 2023 by Dean

[Luke]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

 2 reasons:

1) the shares have were close to the near term price target I set when I bought it late last year

More importantly:

2) Buffett explanation why he sold (geopolitical). I thought a lot about this and  especially why he changed his mind quickly after the purchase. Buffett is extraordinary good at risk management due to his background in insurance. He clearly thought this through and felt that the risk is increasing. He also might have non-public sources (again Berkshire is at heart a company build around managing risk) that influenced his decision.

 

I don't always follow Buffett, but in this case, I felt it's prudent.

He bought this position in Q3, 2022. So between the 01. June and 01.September. Likely he sold directly after the party congress where i think (if i remember correctly) was some talk about invasion of taiwan by at least 2047 or something. Certainly he must have not liked what he saw so he immediately pushed a full sell of the position.

[Spekulatius]

32 minutes ago, Luca said:

He bought this position in Q3, 2022. So between the 01. June and 01.September. Likely he sold directly after the party congress where i think (if i remember correctly) was some talk about invasion of Taiwan by at least 2047 or something. Certainly he must have not liked what he saw so he immediately pushed a full sell of the position.

Let's also not forget the Chinese posture and maneuver after Pelosi's island visit. Those ocurred after Buffett sold, I think.

[crs223]

17 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Let's also not forget the Chinese posture and maneuver after Pelosi's island visit.

 

I’ve already forgotten what the Chinese response was.

 

The “island visit” was blatant antagonism.  Not saying the US was wrong, but let’s call it what it is.

 

 

[sleepydragon]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

 2 reasons:

1) the shares have were close to the near term price target I set when I bought it late last year

More importantly:

2) Buffett explanation why he sold (geopolitical). I thought a lot about this and  especially why he changed his mind quickly after the purchase. Buffett is extraordinary good at risk management due to his background in insurance. He clearly thought this through and felt that the risk is increasing. He also might have non-public sources (again Berkshire is at heart a company build around managing risk) that influenced his decision.

 

I don't always follow Buffett, but in this case, I felt it's prudent.

 

TSM's customers will ask TSM to move their plants to America and Japan, where it will cost a lot more for TSM to build plants and train employees. Not just plants, they also need need other stuffs like electricity to be in place.

An earthquake in Taiwan would knock out powers ..

 

it's not just china's invasion risk I think, though it's probably one of them.

 

On the other hand, a lot of stocks Buffett hold and then sold turned out to do very well, historically. 

Edited May 22, 2023 by sleepydragon

[formthirteen]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Let's also not forget the Chinese posture and maneuver after Pelosi's island visit. Those ocurred after Buffett sold, I think.

 

If there's a non-zero chance of losing everything then it's probably best not to invest, IMO, if you're Buffett. That's why I own options instead of the Chinese ADRs. Leverage stacked on leverage, all balanced on the non-zero chance of going to zero. I like the feel of that. Position sizing is as big as my confidence in communism. You can only own Chinese stocks as long as the CCP approves. Munger seems to like the odds of that risk more than Buffett.

[Luke]

28 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

 

TSM's customers will ask TSM to move their plants to America and Japan, where it will cost a lot more for TSM to build plants and train employees. Not just plants, they also need need other stuffs like electricity to be in place.

An earthquake in Taiwan would knock out powers ..

 

it's not just china's invasion risk I think, though it's probably one of them.

 

On the other hand, a lot of stocks Buffett hold and then sold turned out to do very well, historically. 

He said seismic risks are something he was not worried after some thinking but geopolitical risk bothered him. Munger said in the annual meeting Buffett should feel comfortable if he wants to feel comfortable. Its the same with the Alibaba and Tencent Position for DJCO. If you dont want any geopolitical risk stay out of china and just go for Japan (which buffett did as we know), probably just prefers these businesses that are very well managed but dont have a location next to a superpower that despises them. I also think taiwan invasion is off the table for a long time but hey, one does not sleep peacefully when rockets are directed to you

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

If there's a non-zero chance of losing everything then it's probably best not to invest, IMO, if you're Buffett. That's why I own options instead of the Chinese ADRs. Leverage stacked on leverage, all balanced on the non-zero chance of going to zero. I like the feel of that. Position sizing is as big as my confidence in communism. You can only own Chinese stocks as long as the CCP approves. Munger seems to like the odds of that risk more than Buffett.

My position wasn’t really large enough to cause me headaches, but then again, why run a risk at all, when you get a relatively satisfactory  result in a short time. If shares come back to where ai night them (high. 60’s) I would not have a problem to buy back into TSMC again everything else being equal.

 

For Berkshire, one thing to consider is that they have plenty of China exposure already via AAPL and I am fairly sure that this went into consideration for Buffett.

[Spekulatius]

Sold ONEX.  It was a small position and recent result make me think that lack of progress in getting scale in asset management make this likely a value trap.

[formthirteen]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Sold ONEX.  It was a small position and recent result make me think that lack of progress in getting scale in asset management make this likely a value trap.

 

I did the same earlier this year. Next up ELF.TO?

[Spekulatius]

2 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

I did the same earlier this year. Next up ELF.TO?

I don't own ELF.TO, but I think it's actually a better bet than ONEX currently.

[ASTA]

sold CFR from 2016 wild ride(MC should have been the buy but bought the cheaper stock and Arnault in the newspapers being the richest person alive so trimmed the sector per se). Sold BKNG  from 2020

[Spekulatius]

Selling my few shares of GM here.

[Red Lion]

I trimmed BN to add to BX. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

18 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I don't own ELF.TO, but I think it's actually a better bet than ONEX currently.

How do you both think about ELF.TO?

[Red Lion]

Sold $150 covered calls on my GOOGL position. I picked June of next year to avoid any possibility of short term gains and so that I could get a bit higher strike price. I need to go back and check my numbers, but I think this should have paid for the options premium I paid to buy $75 GOOGL LEAPS that don't expire until Dec 25, so if these calls go against me (i.e. the stock moves over $150), I might continue to roll them over to sop up that extra time value on my leaps. 

[formthirteen]

20 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

On 6/8/2023 at 11:27 PM, Spekulatius said:

 

How do you both think about ELF.TO?

 

I think it's better than holding cash (family-owned, SOTP, cannibal, illiquid, boring):

https://www.e-lfinancial.ca/about-us

https://www.ucorp.ca/content/investment-summary

https://www.ucorp.ca/sites/default/files/pdfs/annual-reports/2023ANNUALREPORTUNCFINAL.pdf

https://www.e-lfinancial.ca/sites/default/files/pdfs/annual-reports/2023Q1interimreport.pdf

 

elf:

ucorp:

 

[CorpRaider]

BRK.B