Ross812 Posted September 26, 2013 Posted September 26, 2013 There were a lot of calls on the first go around to include more companies in the list of candidates and to allow people to add any ideas I may have omitted from the list. I'm excited to start the next quarter of the fund. Last quarter, we more than doubled the return of the S&P Benchmark: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AivVdWOTQE2JdGQzYkFSQUg2eUR3UVRTcThFYWpBelE#gid=21 Here is a tentative list of 81 companies. They were the 75 companies last discussed on the board plus the names from last quarter's selected companies. Please let me know of any names you feel should be added that have a good shot at making it to the portfolio during the next poll. I'm looking for 19-25 more names and any names on the list that should be removed from consideration. Thanks for you help! AAPL ACN AIG ALS.TO ALSK ATSG AWLCF BAC BAM BBG.AX BBRY BH BP BRK.B C CHK CIDM COH DLB DTV DXM EBIX ENDP ESGR EXETF FB FFH.TO FIATY FNMAS FOS.TO FTP.TO GE GM GNW GOOG GS GVC.TO GY HLF HMM.TO HNFSA HPQ IBM IDT JCP KR L LMCA LRE.L LTS.TO LUK LUKOY MBI MKL MSFT NCT NBG NFLXZ NOK NTDOY OAK OIBR OUTR PKX RHDGF RHT RJET RSKIA SBGL SD SEB.V SHLD SPRD STX SWY TI-A TPRE TSLA TWGP VOYA VRX WFC WFC WTW YHOO ZINC Edit (1) Changed list up to Sharper's post. We are up to 6 new companies added, 2 removed. The list stands at 85.
racemize Posted September 26, 2013 Posted September 26, 2013 please add ZINC! (for the Pabraians) Also: JPM What about warrants? you have two WFC
LC Posted September 26, 2013 Posted September 26, 2013 you can probably remove WBMD, as far as I know the interest in that was due to the odd-lot tender, which has been completed.
constructive Posted September 26, 2013 Posted September 26, 2013 CSTR = OUTR HPM = HPQ PBN = LTS.TO STP is a short idea, I don't think anyone has expressed interest in a long position. And could you add GS (Goldman Sachs), GNW (Genworth), LUKOY (Lukoil) and MIL (MFC Industrial)? All have been discussed on the board and should get some votes. Thanks.
SharperDingaan Posted September 26, 2013 Posted September 26, 2013 Add the NBG:US ADR (National Bank of Greece) After everyone is done laughing; keep in mind that NBG only has to rise $1 in 12 months, & its 25% return is going to outperform many of the names listed. Of course when your cost base is under $3, there may be a little bias! SD
Ross812 Posted September 28, 2013 Author Posted September 28, 2013 Bumping. Any more recommendations before I start the Q4 poll?
muscleman Posted September 28, 2013 Posted September 28, 2013 Add the NBG:US ADR (National Bank of Greece) After everyone is done laughing; keep in mind that NBG only has to rise $1 in 12 months, & its 25% return is going to outperform many of the names listed. Of course when your cost base is under $3, there may be a little bias! SD Could you tell me a bit more about NBG? I checked its price/common tangible equity ratio, and it seems pretty expensive. Alpha bank and Piraeus bank seems cheaper on that ratio, but still not very cheap.
SharperDingaan Posted September 29, 2013 Posted September 29, 2013 The argument for NBG is almost entirely business case, not valuation. Domestic mortgages are under a moratorium, they are around 40% of NBG total assets, & the moratorium is coming to an end. If 40% of your book of business suddenly started generating additional NI, we are pretty sure your sock price would go up. A $1 rise in the share price is a 25% appreciation, when the cost is only $4! SD
bmichaud Posted September 29, 2013 Posted September 29, 2013 And likewise, a $1 decline on a $4 cost is a -25% decline! :)
gary17 Posted October 5, 2013 Posted October 5, 2013 SD Do you by chance have data on ROA % for NBG prior to 2008 - my RBC DI only shows up to 2008, which is around 0.8%. Just trying to get an estimate of how much they could earn when everything goes back to 'normal' Can you please also she'd some light on the domestic mortgage moratorium. thanks The argument for NBG is almost entirely business case, not valuation. Domestic mortgages are under a moratorium, they are around 40% of NBG total assets, & the moratorium is coming to an end. If 40% of your book of business suddenly started generating additional NI, we are pretty sure your sock price would go up. A $1 rise in the share price is a 25% appreciation, when the cost is only $4! SD
LC Posted October 5, 2013 Posted October 5, 2013 Average ROA do Mediterranean banks from 2005-2010 was .8%
SharperDingaan Posted October 5, 2013 Posted October 5, 2013 Re: 5 Year Mortgage Moratorium http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-09-22/greece-needing-to-meet-bailout-plans-foreclosures-mortgages%20 One obstacle is a five-year ban on foreclosures that prevented thousands of Greeks from losing their homes after the economy went into free-fall. The government is now considering a plan to ease the restrictions by the end of this year to satisfy its creditors’ demands. Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras said last month that banks face serious problems if they’re not allowed to repossess and auction homes of people who don’t pay their mortgages. “At the moment, even people who can afford to pay the mortgages do not,” National Bank of Greece SA (ETE) Deputy Chief Executive Petros Christodoulou said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Sept. 6. “When the new law is passed and officially foreclosures are allowed over a certain benchmark, we will see that the credit ethos will return.” SD
SharperDingaan Posted October 5, 2013 Posted October 5, 2013 Re the moratorium & regulatory capital: As most of these mortgages are currently non-performing, they have very high amounts of regulatory capital attached to them. When those mortgagees start paying again, their mortgages will require less than ½ the regulatory capital currently attached to them, NBG will not require any additional injections of capital to meet rising BIS standards, the bank will start earning a spread on its mortgages again (income), & some of their very high provisioning levels will start getting released. Then remind yourself that one of the ongoing German financing conditions is the ending of the moratorium; nothing but tailwinds. Re spreads: Apparently it is not possible for NBG to earn the average 50bp spread of a Mediterranean bank, or even the average 70-80bp spread of most western banks. Then keep in mind that over the last 5 years the mortgage portfolio was not contributing (moratorium), & that the average professional life of an analyst is around 3 yrs. Todays analyst was still in college, 2 years after the moratorium started, & has no experience in NBG with anything but moratorium. We are sure NBG is crap, solely because it is Greek. Yet their capital level is almost 1.5x better than most UK banks, & they have not had the corruption or capital scandals of a Barclays, RBS, LLoyds, etc. Where is the real crap. SD
SharperDingaan Posted October 7, 2013 Posted October 7, 2013 It would seem that you do not have to wait 1 year to get a 25%+ gain on the dog of the month. There would also seem to be some other people who read this board ;) SD
gary17 Posted October 7, 2013 Posted October 7, 2013 good call on this one SD. Unfortunately I figure to get into another bank for me would mean selling IRE shares and pay tax so I wasn't able to catch this 25% congrats!!
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