Jump to content

Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax Fund - Q4 Stock LIST


Ross812
 Share

Recommended Posts

There were a lot of calls on the first go around to include more companies in the list of candidates and to allow people to add any ideas I may have omitted from the list.

 

I'm excited to start the next quarter of the fund. Last quarter, we more than doubled the return of the S&P Benchmark:

 

q3+perf.jpg

 

stock+perf.jpg

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AivVdWOTQE2JdGQzYkFSQUg2eUR3UVRTcThFYWpBelE#gid=21

 

Here is a tentative list of 81 companies. They were the 75 companies last discussed on the board plus the names from last quarter's selected companies. Please let me know of any names you feel should be added that have a good shot at making it to the portfolio during the next poll. I'm looking for 19-25 more names and any names on the list that should be removed from consideration. Thanks for you help!

 

AAPL

ACN

AIG

ALS.TO

ALSK

ATSG

AWLCF

BAC

BAM

BBG.AX

BBRY

BH

BP

BRK.B

C

CHK

CIDM

COH

DLB

DTV

DXM

EBIX

ENDP

ESGR

EXETF

FB

FFH.TO

FIATY

FNMAS

FOS.TO

FTP.TO

GE

GM

GNW

GOOG

GS

GVC.TO

GY

HLF

HMM.TO

HNFSA

HPQ

IBM

IDT

JCP

KR

L

LMCA

LRE.L

LTS.TO

LUK

LUKOY

MBI

MKL

MSFT

NCT

NBG

NFLXZ

NOK

NTDOY

OAK

OIBR

OUTR

PKX

RHDGF

RHT

RJET

RSKIA

SBGL

SD

SEB.V

SHLD

SPRD

STX

SWY

TI-A

TPRE

TSLA

TWGP

VOYA

VRX

WFC

WFC

WTW

YHOO

ZINC

 

Edit (1) Changed list up to Sharper's post. We are up to 6 new companies added, 2 removed. The list stands at 85.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Add the NBG:US ADR (National Bank of Greece)

 

After everyone is done laughing; keep in mind that NBG only has to rise $1 in 12 months, & its 25% return is going to outperform many of the names listed. Of course when your cost base is under $3, there may be a little bias!

 

SD

 

Could you tell me a bit more about NBG? I checked its price/common tangible equity ratio, and it seems pretty expensive. Alpha bank and Piraeus bank seems cheaper on that ratio, but still not very cheap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The argument for NBG is almost entirely business case, not valuation. Domestic mortgages are under a moratorium, they are around 40% of NBG total assets, & the moratorium is coming to an end. If 40% of your book of business suddenly started generating additional NI, we are pretty sure your sock price would go up.

 

A $1 rise in the share price is a 25% appreciation, when the cost is only $4!

 

SD

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SD

Do you by chance have data on ROA % for NBG prior to 2008 -

my RBC DI only shows up to 2008, which is around 0.8%.    Just trying to get an estimate of how much they could earn when everything goes back to 'normal'

  Can you please also she'd some light on the domestic mortgage moratorium.

thanks

 

The argument for NBG is almost entirely business case, not valuation. Domestic mortgages are under a moratorium, they are around 40% of NBG total assets, & the moratorium is coming to an end. If 40% of your book of business suddenly started generating additional NI, we are pretty sure your sock price would go up.

 

A $1 rise in the share price is a 25% appreciation, when the cost is only $4!

 

SD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: 5 Year Mortgage Moratorium

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-09-22/greece-needing-to-meet-bailout-plans-foreclosures-mortgages%20

 

One obstacle is a five-year ban on foreclosures that prevented thousands of Greeks from losing their homes after the economy went into free-fall. The government is now considering a plan to ease the restrictions by the end of this year to satisfy its creditors’ demands. Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras said last month that banks face serious problems if they’re not allowed to repossess and auction homes of people who don’t pay their mortgages.

 

“At the moment, even people who can afford to pay the mortgages do not,” National Bank of Greece SA (ETE) Deputy Chief Executive Petros Christodoulou said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Sept. 6. “When the new law is passed and officially foreclosures are allowed over a certain benchmark, we will see that the credit ethos will return.”

 

SD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re the moratorium & regulatory capital: As most of these mortgages are currently non-performing, they have very high amounts of regulatory capital attached to them. When those mortgagees start paying again, their mortgages will require less than ½ the regulatory capital currently attached to them, NBG will not require any additional injections of capital to meet rising BIS standards, the bank will start earning a spread on its mortgages again (income), & some of their very high provisioning levels will start getting released. Then remind yourself that one of the ongoing German financing conditions is the ending of the moratorium; nothing but tailwinds.

 

Re spreads: Apparently it is not possible for NBG to earn the average 50bp spread of a Mediterranean bank, or even the average 70-80bp spread of most western banks. Then keep in mind that over the last 5 years the mortgage portfolio was not contributing (moratorium), & that the average professional life of an analyst is around 3 yrs. Todays analyst was still in college, 2 years after the moratorium started, & has no experience in NBG with anything but moratorium.

 

We are sure NBG is crap, solely because it is Greek. Yet their capital level is almost 1.5x better than most UK banks, & they have not had the corruption or capital scandals of a Barclays, RBS, LLoyds, etc. Where is the real crap.

 

SD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...