Current Holdings

[Ross812]

Cash            16%

Bidvest -      13%

Lancashire -  10%

Altius -        9%

Bac Calls -    8%

Petsmart -    5%

BP -              5%

McCormick -    5%

AIG Wt -        4%

Fiat -            4%

LKQ -            4%

ASPS -            3%

Pirelli -          3%

NOV -            2%

Fiserv -          2%

AN -              1.5%

AL -              1.5%

Glacier Media - 1.5%

 

[JAllen]

Just went through a relatively large rebalancing effort. I try to develop most of my investment ideas myself, but will occasionally steal one of I like it enough.

 

DBLTX - 11%

FRFHF - 12.7%

BBRY - 11.3%

MBI - 5.1% - board idea. Thanks guys

SAN - 5.1 %

MURGY - 4.7%

ATUSF - 4.5% - board idea. thanks guys

AAPL - 4.8%

SB - 4.3%

OGZPY - 2.0%

MRVL - 2.0 % - following David Einhorn on this one.

GOOG - 2.0 %

TOT - 2.0%

SLV - 1.75%

AMZN - (3.2%)

Cash - 16.2%

 

Other market exposure through various funds

Stocks - 6.3%

Bonds - 2.7%

Real estate - 2.3%

 

I'm also short calls covering half of my MBI position and long calls for BBRY. Net long exposure through calls is only 1.3%.

 

Totals don't equal a hundred because these were my best estimates off the top of my head.

 

 

Would you share your short thesis on AMZN, Zach?  Thanks.

[wisdom]

27% cash

17% BYDDY

16% SHLD

15% BAC-WTA

14% AIG-WT

8% FFH

3% BRK/LUK, etc.

[rkbabang]

As of right now:

 

70% BAC (Calls & Common), increasing daily lately. This was 60% not too long ago.

9% AIG (Warrants)

 

5% or less possitions in:

BRK-B

FRFHF

HOTR

AAPL

SD (Calls)

MNGGF

MIDD

SYTE

 

 

This excludes:

 

My 401k plan which I've been contributing to for 2 years at my present company and is 100% invested in mutual funds and would be about 2% of the above portfolio.

 

Some real estate I own. About 50% equity in my house and I own 50% interest in 20 acres of buildable land.  I've owned this land for about 15 years and I'm not sure what the present market value is.

 

A large amount of restricted stock in company I work for.  This would be about a 25% position if included in my above portfolio, but the majority of it isn't yet vested.

 

[Spekulatius]

I run a fairly diversified. Portfolio:

 

Larger positions:

LAACZ

NSRGY

QUCT

TPCA

FMBl

BP

VAST.AS

KSB3.DE

CAM.L

HNFSA

 

medium:

DVN

FRFC

TAP

KMI

COSWF

 

small:

BAP

OVLY

KO

JMHLY

MIL

ORKLY

GTS

ESLT

CPKF

CARE

VALE

RDI

ORCL

SFY MHLD

 

~17% cash

 

And several other tiny stub positions (mostly microcaps)

 

 

 

 

 

[jay21]

BAC 17% (warrants and common)

BRK 10%

MKL 8%

LUK 5%

NICK 4%

GLRE 2%

MDLZ 2%

Cash 52%

 

I have a large cash balance because my savings rate is very high relative to my net worth and it has effectively added >3% to my portfolio a month.  Also, I between 20-50% of that cash I think of as an emergency fund for personal expenses so maybe that shouldn't count.  I am currently thinking of reworking my portfolio to look more like this:

 

BRK 20%

MKL 20%

BAC 20% (warrants and common)

LUK 10%

FIAT 5%

Cash 25%

 

Sold out of NICK and GLRE.  So now from largest to smallest:

 

BAC

BRK

MKL

LUK

FIAT

MDLZ

 

Thinking about buying more of FIAT, LUK, and MKL.

[TorontoRaptorsFan]

Citibank (100% of my portfolio)

 

[gjangal]

MA                18.54%

AXP              17.88%

INFY                7.19%

INTU              6.86%

NOV              6.68%

LXFT                6.16%

GS                  5.56%

ACN                5.49%

AIG                4.22%

MMYT            3.92%

WAGE          2.99%

 

Cash              14.51%

 

I am a recent joiner and new to investing. I think this is the best 20$ I spent so far. Thank you everyone

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Just went through a relatively large rebalancing effort. I try to develop most of my investment ideas myself, but will occasionally steal one of I like it enough.

 

DBLTX - 11%

FRFHF - 12.7%

BBRY - 11.3%

MBI - 5.1% - board idea. Thanks guys

SAN - 5.1 %

MURGY - 4.7%

ATUSF - 4.5% - board idea. thanks guys

AAPL - 4.8%

SB - 4.3%

OGZPY - 2.0%

MRVL - 2.0 % - following David Einhorn on this one.

GOOG - 2.0 %

TOT - 2.0%

SLV - 1.75%

AMZN - (3.2%)

Cash - 16.2%

 

Other market exposure through various funds

Stocks - 6.3%

Bonds - 2.7%

Real estate - 2.3%

 

I'm also short calls covering half of my MBI position and long calls for BBRY. Net long exposure through calls is only 1.3%.

 

Totals don't equal a hundred because these were my best estimates off the top of my head.

 

 

Would you share your short thesis on AMZN, Zach?  Thanks.

 

Probably the same one you've heard from others. I don't believe the revenue growth will justify earnings to support such a lofty valuation. I basically view Amazon as pursuing low-profit to zero-profit ventures that add to revenue growth that support it's stock market price which helps give it access to cheap capital to continue pursuing non-profitable business. I'm sure some of the stuff they're doing will eventually lead to bottom line growth, but their entire history of profitability since being a public company says more than enough for me in determining if they'll ever achieve massive profitability like everyone imagines.

 

They're recent move to do fresh delivery of produce in the tri-state area supports this argument as there are already two very well entrenched companies that work in this already low margin business. It will require a ton of upfront investment for the infrastructure and refrigerated trucks, they'll receive little to no synergies with their current business, and will be competing for a low margin, low profit business in doing so. It just doesn't make any sense to me.

 

All that being said, I rolled my short exposure from Amazon to Netflix when they were both around the $260/share level. I find NFLX to be a more compelling short with the off-balance sheet liabilities and my expectations of their ability to be draw enough customers to justify the costs of custom content.  Also roll'd some of the short exposure to TSLA around the $155/share mark on it's way up to $190 because it was a clear that it wouldn't be able to meet the expectations for its shares over the next 5 years. 

[Palantir]

*grabs popcorn*

[JPerez]

I think the market is just obsessed with revenue growth these days just because it is so hard to find in this low inflation, slow economy environment. There are lots of examples of stocks I would consider overvalue in that space netflix, amazon, linkedin,etc. Their market price is entirely based on their sales not their earnings and that creates perverse incentives for management.

I don't short stocks because it is so depending on the timing and I find it extremely difficult to be right at the right time but my favorite to short in this category would CRM, they are just so grossly overvalued that it is scary. But i Thought that last year and they are much higher now.

[fareastwarriors]

Citibank (100% of my portfolio)

 

Why 100% Citi? Why not some BAC?

 

 

[fareastwarriors]

I think the market is just obsessed with revenue growth these days just because it is so hard to find in this low inflation, slow economy environment. There are lots of examples of stocks I would consider overvalue in that space netflix, amazon, linkedin,etc. Their market price is entirely based on their sales not their earnings and that creates perverse incentives for management.

I don't short stocks because it is so depending on the timing and I find it extremely difficult to be right at the right time but my favorite to short in this category would CRM, they are just so grossly overvalued that it is scary. But i Thought that last year and they are much higher now.

 

I think social media stocks will be a hell of a short one day.

 

how timely...

 

In Silicon Valley, Partying Like It’s 1999 Again

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/27/technology/in-silicon-valley-partying-like-its-1999-again.html?ref=business

[gary17]

I do think though we have the infrastructure today that wasn't available in 1999...

So it may not be a fair comparison of today's dot com economy to that of 1999...

 

 

[constructive]

I do think though we have the infrastructure today that wasn't available in 1999...

So it may not be a fair comparison of today's dot com economy to that of 1999...

 

I don't follow your point. Most tech infrastructure in 1999 didn't exist in 1985 either.

[Guest wellmont]

I do think though we have the infrastructure today that wasn't available in 1999...

So it may not be a fair comparison of today's dot com economy to that of 1999...

 

it's not there yet. but most people think the fed will keep st interest rates at .25 for at least another year. so 2013 may be 1998 or 1986. 1999 interest rates were not this low. new tech ipos to get lathered up about : uber, square, dropbox, evernote, pinterest, alibaba, airbnb. 1st quarter of 2014 will be enlightening, because it looks like no gov shutdown or debt ceiling debate, or even talk of one. there probably will be more opportunity in 2014 for tepper and loeb to almost double their money in one day like they did or possibly did with $twtr.

[Palantir]

I do think though we have the infrastructure today that wasn't available in 1999...

So it may not be a fair comparison of today's dot com economy to that of 1999...

 

You are seeing what may now be called bullophobia - fear of rising markets. Drives value investors crazy with plenty of  >:( >:( .

[TorontoRaptorsFan]

Citibank (100% of my portfolio)

 

Why 100% Citi? Why not some BAC?

 

I like  putting all my eggs in one basket. 

I think Citibank will outperform BAC

 

[sculpin]

Sonde (SOQ – TSX) – Spin off of Marquee Energy shares & current valuation. I own both SOQ and Marquee shares (MQL – TSX)

 

I believe I have mentioned Sonde on here before as a play on a discounted suite of Canadian & offshore North African energy assets. Sonde currently has a market cap of $41 million and will be comprised of cash of about $33MM ($0.53/share), shares of Marquee energy which will be spun off contingent on approval of the sale of SOQ’s WCSB producing assets (34% of a Marquee share for each SOQ share – .34*$0.76 = $0.26 of MQL per SOQ share), 100,000 acres of high graded Duvernay & Wabamun acreage and most importantly 100% ownership of the Zarat offshore oil field (28MM bbls) plus significant exploration acreage in the Mediterannean waters between Libya & Tunisia.

 

I value the cash, Marquee & Cdn lands at a total of $71million or $1.14 per Sonde share. Sonde does not have any debt although it does have a $45 million drilling liability to drill 3 wells in the offshore field over the next 3 years.

 

I have met with the management of both SOQ & MQL this morning. Marquee is acquiring the Sonde assets at a very low price and is a perfect complement to their Alberta land base. Marquee is heavily undervalued on its own with 2P NAV of $2.68. Their latest presentation can be found in the link below and I would forward research on MQL to anyone who would like it.

 

http://www.marquee-energy.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Marquee-Marketing-Presentation-49-North-2.pdf

 

The meeting to approve the sale to MQL of the Sonde lands takes place on December 30th with the dividend out of the shares to SOQ holders by 31 December. In discussion with mgmt of Sonde this morning, they are very optimistic that they will be able to find a new partner to carry them on both the development of Zarat and the funding of the 3 exploration wells ($40MM each with cost recovery from Zarat cash flow when this begins in 2017). Net cash flow potential to SOQ of just the Zarat production over life of the field is in the range of $800MM with much more upside in several seismic located potential fields within their block. If SOQ succeeds in finding a partner for Zarat then the net cash and remaining Western Cdn exploration lands will most likely been spun out with their own joint venture development partner. Latest Sonde presentation is here:

 

http://www.sonderesources.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/December-2013updated.pdf

 

So in summary, for about $0.66 share, a purchase of Sonde at this time should result in the holding of a Company with $0.26 of MQL shares, $0.53 net cash, 100K acres of exploration land in Canada & most importantly, the offshore field that could be worth many multiples of the current share price. This value realization is, however, dependent on SOQ finding a partner to develop this asset.

[no_free_lunch]

Sculpin,

 

I really like the Sonde idea.  I did a bit of digging on it, and the duvernay acreage alone could be worth considerably more than the current market cap. 

 

I am wondering what your thoughts are on future dilution though?  I know they have a decent amount of cash but they are committed to the drilling in zarat.  They said that they will likely raise some cash via equity.  Any idea on what the timeframe is for an equity raise?  It would be fairly destructive if they did that at current prices.

 

Also, in general what do you think of management?  Are they shareholder friendly?

[dazzle1]

LONG:

ENT

MTN

CST

EGL

WAIR

WU

LNG

NRF

SPR

URI

BID

CWH

TFSL

 

SHORT:

WIN

TRN

PRAA

AFSI

SNCR

RP

THO

LL

WBMD

WFM

FNGN

BBY

[sculpin]

NFL - on the Sonde, I believe mgmt & the Board are acting in best interests of shareholders. In terms of an equity issue, SOQ would as a last resort do this after all efforts to get a JV partner for North Africa are exhausted. On the Duvernay & Wabamun lands I believe they want to do a JV on these as well or merge what's left of the Canadian company with another E&P that has the cash flow & expertise to exploit both of these resource plays.

[cogitator99]

Top 10 US Positions

 

QCOM

ORCL

AIG

DTV

GM

NOV

CHK

DE

MDLZ

NWS

 

Cash - 18%

[Yours Truly]

DTV

STRZA

ATRI

AZO

GPS

BAC 2016 leaps

GM B warrants

Fannie Mae Prefs

Cash

[roughlyright]

As of right now:

 

70% BAC (Calls & Common), increasing daily lately. This was 60% not too long ago.

9% AIG (Warrants)

 

5% or less possitions in:

BRK-B

FRFHF

HOTR

AAPL

SD (Calls)

MNGGF

MIDD

SYTE

 

 

This excludes:

 

My 401k plan which I've been contributing to for 2 years at my present company and is 100% invested in mutual funds and would be about 2% of the above portfolio.

 

Some real estate I own. About 50% equity in my house and I own 50% interest in 20 acres of buildable land.  I've owned this land for about 15 years and I'm not sure what the present market value is.

 

A large amount of restricted stock in company I work for.  This would be about a 25% position if included in my above portfolio, but the majority of it isn't yet vested.

 

Rkbabang,

 

  What is your opinion on Mongolia growth group? The new CEO Paul J. Byrne  seems to have a great reputation. He has built several projects going to tens of billions of dollars. He has now started working for such a small company. I thought this a major transformational event for the company. any thoughts?